Disappearing dissent? Repression and state consolidation in Mexico

Does violent repression strengthen the state? In this paper we explore the legacies of repression by the Mexican government on subsequent state consolidation. We investigate how a particular form of state repression, forced disappearances of alleged leftist dissidents, during the 1960s and 1970s in Mexico had path-dependent consequences for different dimensions of state capacity nearly fifty years later. To do so, we rely on data gathered from suppressed Mexican human rights reports of forced disappearances which, to our knowledge, have not been analyzed by social scientists before. Controlling for a rich set of pre-disappearances covariates, we find that forced disappearances are positively correlated with contemporary measures of fiscal and bureaucratic capacity. However, historical forced disappearances do not help the state to provide security, to consolidate its monopoly over the use of force, or to provide welfare-related public goods in the long run. Moreover, disappearances are negatively correlated with various measures of trust in the government

More insight into the fate of biomedical meeting abstracts: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: It has been estimated that about 45% of abstracts that are accepted for presentation at biomedical meetings will subsequently be published in full. The acceptance of abstracts at meetings and their fate after initial rejection are less well understood. We set out to estimate the proportion of abstracts submitted to meetings that are eventually published as full reports, and to explore factors that are associated with meeting acceptance and successful publication. METHODS: Studies analysing acceptance of abstracts at biomedical meetings or their subsequent full publication were searched in MEDLINE, OLDMEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, BIOSIS, Science Citation Index Expanded, and by hand searching of bibliographies and proceedings. We estimated rates of abstract acceptance and of subsequent full publication, and identified abstract and meeting characteristics associated with acceptance and publication, using logistic regression analysis, survival-type analysis, and meta-analysis. RESULTS: Analysed meetings were held between 1957 and 1999. Of 14945 abstracts that were submitted to 43 meetings, 46% were accepted. The rate of full publication was studied with 19123 abstracts that were presented at 234 meetings. Using survival-type analysis, we estimated that 27% were published after two, 41% after four, and 44% after six years. Of 2412 abstracts that were rejected at 24 meetings, 27% were published despite rejection. Factors associated with both abstract acceptance and subsequent publication were basic science and positive study outcome. Large meetings and those held outside the US were more likely to accept abstracts. Abstracts were more likely to be published subsequently if presented either orally, at small meetings, or at a US meeting. Abstract acceptance itself was strongly associated with full publication. CONCLUSIONS: About one third of abstracts submitted to biomedical meetings were published as full reports. Acceptance at meetings and publication were associated with specific characteristics of abstracts and meetings

Hepatic and renal end-organ damage in the Fontan circulation: a report from the Australian and New Zealand Fontan Registry

Background: Hepatic and renal dysfunction have been observed in survivors of the Fontan procedure, however their incidence and associated factors remain poorly defined. Methods: A total of 152 participants from a Registry of 1528 patients underwent abdominal ultrasound, transient elastography (FibroScan), serum fibrosis score (FibroTest), in vivo Tc-99m DTPA measurement of glomerular filtration rate (mGFR), and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR). Results: Mean age and time since Fontan were 19.8 ± 9.3 and 14.1 ± 7.6 years, respectively. Features suggestive of hepatic fibrosis were observed on ultrasound in 87/143 (61%) and no patient was diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma. FibroScan median kPa was ≥10 in 117/133 (88%), ≥15 in 75/133 (56%), and ≥20 in 41/133 (31%). Fifty-four patients (54/118, 46%) had a FibroTest score ≥0.49 (equivalent to ≥F2 fibrosis). FibroTest score correlated with FibroScan value (r = 0.24, p = 0.015) and ACR (r = 0.29, p = 0.002), and patients with ultrasound features of hepatic fibrosis had a higher FibroScan median kPa (19.5 vs 15.4, p = 0.002). Renal impairment was mild (mGFR 60–89 ml/min/1.73 m) in 46/131 (35%) and moderate (mGFR 30–59 ml/min/1.73 m) in 3/131 (2%). Microalbuminuria was detected in 52/139 participants (37%). By multivariable analysis, time since Fontan was associated with increased FibroScan median kPa (β = 0.89, 95% CI 0.54–1.25, p = 0.002) and decreased mGFR (β = −0.77, 95% CI −1.29–0.24, p = 0.005). Conclusions: In the second decade after Fontan hepatic and renal structure and function are abnormal in a significant number of patients: close to 60% have ultrasonographic evidence of structural hepatic abnormalities, 46% have elevated serum hepatic fibrosis scores, and 57% have either reduced glomerular filtration rate or microalbuminuria. Hepatic and renal function should be monitored for potential impacts on outcomes after Fontan completion

Neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

Objectives Although substantial reductions in under-5 mortality have been observed during the past 35 years, progress in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) has been uneven. This paper provides an overview of child mortality and morbidity in the EMR based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Methods We used GBD 2015 study results to explore under-5 mortality and morbidity in EMR countries. Results In 2015, 755,844 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 712,064–801,565) children under 5 died in the EMR. In the early neonatal category, deaths in the EMR decreased by 22.4%, compared to 42.4% globally. The rate of years of life lost per 100,000 population under 5 decreased 54.38% from 177,537 (173,812–181,463) in 1990 to 80,985 (76,308–85,876) in 2015; the rate of years lived with disability decreased by 0.57% in the EMR compared to 9.97% globally. Conclusions Our findings call for accelerated action to decrease child morbidity and mortality in the EMR. Governments and organizations should coordinate efforts to address this burden. Political commitment is needed to ensure that child health receives the resources needed to end preventable deaths

Common genetic variants in the CLDN2 and PRSS1-PRSS2 loci alter risk for alcohol-related and sporadic pancreatitis

Pancreatitis is a complex, progressively destructive inflammatory disorder. Alcohol was long thought to be the primary causative agent, but genetic contributions have been of interest since the discovery that rare PRSS1, CFTR, and SPINK1 variants were associated with pancreatitis risk. We now report two significant genome-wide associations identified and replicated at PRSS1-PRSS2 (1×10-12) and x-linked CLDN2 (p < 1×10-21) through a two-stage genome-wide study (Stage 1, 676 cases and 4507 controls; Stage 2, 910 cases and 4170 controls). The PRSS1 variant affects susceptibility by altering expression of the primary trypsinogen gene. The CLDN2 risk allele is associated with atypical localization of claudin-2 in pancreatic acinar cells. The homozygous (or hemizygous male) CLDN2 genotype confers the greatest risk, and its alleles interact with alcohol consumption to amplify risk. These results could partially explain the high frequency of alcohol-related pancreatitis in men – male hemizygous frequency is 0.26, female homozygote is 0.07

Burden of cardiovascular diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2015 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

To report the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) during 1990-2015. We used the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study for estimates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of different CVD in 22 countries of EMR. A total of 1.4 million CVD deaths (95% UI: 1.3-1.5) occurred in 2015 in the EMR, with the highest number of deaths in Pakistan (465,116) and the lowest number of deaths in Qatar (723). The age-standardized DALY rate per 100,000 decreased from 10,080 in 1990 to 8606 in 2015 (14.6% decrease). Afghanistan had the highest age-standardized DALY rate of CVD in both 1990 and 2015. Kuwait and Qatar had the lowest age-standardized DALY rates of CVD in 1990 and 2015, respectively. High blood pressure, high total cholesterol, and high body mass index were the leading risk factors for CVD. The age-standardized DALY rates in the EMR are considerably higher than the global average. These findings call for a comprehensive approach to prevent and control the burden of CVD in the region.Peer reviewe

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

The genetic architecture of the human cerebral cortex

The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities, yet little is known about the specific genetic loci that influence human cortical structure. To identify genetic variants that affect cortical structure, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain magnetic resonance imaging data from 51,665 individuals. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 regions with known functional specializations. We identified 199 significant loci and found significant enrichment for loci influencing total surface area within regulatory elements that are active during prenatal cortical development, supporting the radial unit hypothesis. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes in Wnt signaling pathways, which influence progenitor expansion and areal identity. Variation in cortical structure is genetically correlated with cognitive function, Parkinson's disease, insomnia, depression, neuroticism, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation