Combined effects of shade and drought on physiology, growth, and yield of mature cocoa trees

Open Access ArticleClimate models predict decreasing precipitation and increasing air temperature, causing concern for the future of cocoa in the major producing regions worldwide. It has been suggested that shade could alleviate stress by reducing radiation intensity and conserving soil moisture, but few on-farm cocoa studies are testing this hypothesis. Here, for 33 months, we subjected twelve-year cocoa plants in Ghana to three levels of rainwater suppression (full rainwater, 1/3 rainwater suppression and 2/3 rainwater suppression) under full sun or 40 % uniform shade in a split plot design, monitoring soil moisture, physiological parameters, growth, and yield. Volumetric soil moisture (ϴw) contents in the treatments ranged between 0.20 and 0.45 m3m−3 and increased under shade. Rainwater suppression decreased leaf water potentials (ѱw), reaching −1.5 MPa in full sun conditions indicating severe drought. Stomatal conductance (gs) was decreased under the full sun but was not affected by rainwater suppression, illustrating the limited control of water loss in cocoa plants. Although pre-dawn chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) indicated photoinhibition, rates of photosynthesis (Pn) were highest in full sun. On the other hand, litter fall was highest in the full sun and under water stress, while diameter growth and carbon accumulation increased in the shade but was negatively affected by rainwater suppression. Abortion of fruits and damage to pods were high under shade, but dry bean yield was higher compared to under the full sun. The absence of interactions between shade treatments and rainwater suppression suggests that shade may improve the performance of cocoa, but not sufficiently to counteract the negative effects of water stress under field conditions

Influences of climate variability on cocoa health and productivity in agroforestry systems in Ghana

Open Access Article; Published online: 14 Oct 2022The susceptibility of cocoa to harsh climatic conditions is evident in cocoa growing areas in Ghana, and climate distribution models show reduced cocoa suitability to climate change. We assessed how cocoa health and productivity were affected by varying climate conditions for 4 years in 23 cocoa farms along a gradient of low rainfall/high temperature in the north to high rainfall/low temperature in the south of Ghana's cocoa belts. Twenty cocoa trees per farm (in total 460) were observed and scored for their canopy condition, flower intensity, and damaged pods due to mirids, cocoa shield bugs, and black pod disease (BPD). Harvested pods and extracted dried cocoa beans were evaluated to ascertain yield/productivity. Insect pest damages to pods were on average 2.3 ± 0.8, 2.2 ± 1.0, and 3.0 ± 0.7 pods tree−1 year−1 in the south, middle and north, respectively. The healthiest and highest yielding trees were in the rainy south at 0.99 ± 0.02 kg dry beans tree−1 followed by the middle (0.84 ± 0.02 kg) and the north (0.60 ± 0.01 kg). BPD infection was highest in the south at 1.1 ± 1.1 pods tree−1 year−1, followed by the middle (0.7 ± 0.8), and the north (0.4 ± 0.6). Within sites variability in rainfall and temperature was not found to affect yields significantly. The variability in cocoa performance and occurrence of pests and diseases observed within sites may thus be caused by farm management practices that are key to the enhancement of productivity at site level. We recommend regular pruning of cocoa and shade trees to increase aeration and prevent BPD in high rainfall areas, and an increase in shade tree components in dry regions for insect pest management in cocoa systems

Selected shade tree species improved cocoa yields in low-input agroforestry systems in Ghana

Open Access Article; Published online: 13 Aug 2022CONTEXT Cocoa agroforestry systems differ in the diversity of shade tree species composition. Though cocoa benefits from shade, there is a lack of species-specific information on shade trees that enhance soil fertility and yield. OBJECTIVE We examined how soil characteristics and cocoa yield were affected by eight commonly retained forest tree species, compared with unshaded control plots over a 3-year period. METHODS Using 74 circular plots from 10 cocoa farms in the Western region of Ghana, we sampled soils from two random points within each plot. Soil nutrients at the beginning and end of the study were analyzed, and yield was expressed as number of harvested pods and dry weight of beans per hectare. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Levels of soil K and Ca were below recommended values. Although soil available phosphorus (P) was higher in control plots than under shade trees, yield around shade trees were higher than on unshaded plots. Cocoa yield differences between shade tree species and control plots were significant only in the major crop season, but not in the minor crop season. Cocoa yields under Cedrela odorata, Khaya ivorensis, Terminalia superba and Milicia excelsa were significantly higher than on control plots. Hence, the inclusion of specific shade tree species in cocoa agroforestry systems is important to maintain high yields in cocoa systems with low inputs. SIGNIFICANCE To our knowledge, this study presents one of the first attempt to assess the impacts of specific shade tree species on soil characteristics and cocoa yield

Limited effects of shade on physiological performances of cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) under elevated temperature

Open Access Article; Published online: 08 Jul 2022Shade is one of the recommended management solutions to mitigate the effects of heat stress, which is a major challenge for cocoa production globally. Nevertheless, there are limited studies to verify this hypothesis. Here, we evaluate the effects of heat and shade on cocoa physiology using experimental plots with six-month old potted seedlings in a randomized complete block design. Infrared heaters were applied for one month to increase leaf temperatures by an average of 5–7 ºC (heat treatment) compared with no heat (unheated treatments), and shaded plants were placed under a shade net removing 60% of the light compared with no shade (sun treatments). Plants under heat treatments in sun and in shade showed severe reduction in photosynthesis. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence and photosynthetic light response curves indicated that heat caused damages at photosystem II and additionally resulted in lower rates of maximal photosynthesis. Temperature optima for photosynthesis were at 31–33 ºC with only small differences between treatments, and as light saturation was reached at low PAR levels of 325 – 380 µmol m−2 s−1 in shade and 427 – 521 µmol m−2 s−1 in sun, ambient rates of photosynthesis were comparable between sun and shade treatments. Heat treatments resulted in decreased concentrations of chlorophyll and changed pigment composition, reduced specific leaf areas, and plant biomass. While shade may benefit cocoa seedlings, our results indicate that the positive effects may not be sufficient to counteract the negative effects of increased temperatures on cocoa physiology

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Effect of shade on ecophysiology of cocoa under stress conditions

IITA supervisor: Dr. Asare R.Climate models predict increasing air temperature and decreasing rainfall patterns among cocoa growing regions around the world. Both heat and drought stress are known to affect physiology of cocoa plants through reduced rates of photosynthesis, lack of water and generally impaired physiological processes. This in turn leads to decreased yields and in severe cases, increased risks of mortality. Many studies have reported positive effects of shade on cocoa production; however, interest of full sun cocoa farming has been increasing over the last 20 – 40 years due to higher yields under full sun conditions with higher inputs of fertilizer. However, most of the cocoa farms in Ghana are owned by small households who cannot afford to invest into more fertilizer applications. Therefore, providing shade to buffer cocoa against erratic climatic conditions could help sustain the cocoa industry while protecting the environment. Notwithstanding, a strong debate on whether shade can buffer physiological performances of cocoa against climate change thus exists. Reports have indicated shade limiting the effects of bad weather on cocoa, but few on-farm studies have so far been done in tropical conditions to back this claim. The aim of this research was therefore to study the effects of drought and elevated temperature on performances of cocoa as a tropical understory plant and to ascertain whether shade can modify the effects. The research was carried out in two separate experiments. In experiment one, the aim was to evaluate shade on cocoa plants under different levels of water suppression. The study was conducted in a farmer’s field with 12-year-old cocoa plants. Water suppression was achieved using plastic sheets to reduce through fall to between 33% and 66%. Shade was provided with 40% black shade net raised 6.5 m over the cocoa plants. Data taken covered a period of 33 months with parameters such as chlorophyll fluorescence, water potential, photosynthesis, stem expansion and yield were monitored. In experiment two, effects of heat on physiological performances of cocoa were studied using 6-month-old cocoa seedlings. Shade was provided using 60% black shade net while air temperature 2 to 4 oC above ambient was achieved using infra-red heaters. The experiment took place in September/October 2019 wet months and was repeated in the March/April 2020 dry months. Results from experiment one confirmed the hypothesis that drought can alter physiological functions of cocoa plants and shade can be a promising strategy to modify the effects. Drought had direct effect on water status in the plant affecting plant water potential, stem expansion, chlorophyll fluorescence and photosynthesis. Cocoa plants do not efficiently regulate their stomata to conserve water under drought conditions indicating the need for a constant supply of water to the plants. Canopy density, flower production, cherelles and pods count were higher under shade conditions, however, cherelles and pod damage were a significant problem under shade. Yield in kilograms per hectare depended on season, water availability or shade varying between 90 to 1100 kg/ha/season among treatments. Shade increased yield to about 1100 kg/ha/season irrespective of the levels of water suppression while water suppression proportionally reduced dry weight yield of cocoa plants whatever the shade levels. The 2/3 water suppression plots under full sun conditions had the least yield of 286 kg/ha/season compared with same treatment under shade conditions with yield average of 431 kg/ha/season. In experiment two, shade and heat had additive effects on growth, and physiological performances of cocoa at the seedlings level. However, interactive effects of shade and heat were observed on the immediate climatic conditions of the plants; an indication that shade can modify the immediate harsh conditions around the plants. Shade increased chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf area, chlorophyll pigments of leaves and reduced leaf damage. Shaded plants revealed maximum efficient utilization of limited light available by recording lower light saturation in the range of 325 – 380 μmol m-2 s-1 and light compensation between 0 – 6 μmol m-2 s-1. Full sun plants on the other hand gave slightly higher light saturation between 427 – 520 μmol m-2 s-1 while light compensation ranged between 11 – 18 μmol m-2 s-1. Also, full sun conditions increased leaf density and stomata per unit area and rate of photosynthesis. Heat further reduced light saturation points and increased light compensation points under shade and full sun conditions. Heat affected chlorophyll fluorescence reflecting damages to photosystem II light harvesting complexes, slowing the rate of photosynthesis. Plants responded to raised heat with increased concentration of heat shock proteins (HSPs), lower light saturation points, reduced growth in height and a shift of optimal temperature for photosynthesis to higher levels to acclimate to or avoid the heat stress. Shade thus, can minimize negative effects of drought and heat on cocoa to improve yield of the plant