Spatial and temporal analysis of the mid-summer dry spells for the summer rainfall region of South Africa

South Africa is frequently subjected to severe droughts and dry spells during the rainy season. As such, rainfall is one of the most significant factors limiting dryland crop production in South Africa. The mid-summer period is particularly important for agriculture since a lack of rain during this period negatively affects crop yields. Dry spell frequency analyses are used to investigate the impacts of sub-seasonal rainfall variability on crop yield, since seasonal rainfall totals alone do not explain the relationship between rainfall and crop yields. This study investigated the spatial and temporal occurrences of the mid-summer dry spells based on magnitude, length and time of occurrence in the major maize growing areas of the summer rainfall region of South Africa. Three thresholds of 5 mm, 10 mm, and 15 mm total rainfall for a pentad were used for the analysis of dry spells. Dry spell analysis showed that dry pentads occur during mid-summer with differing intensity, duration and frequency across the summer rainfall region. Annual frequency of dry pentads for the mid-summer period ranged between 0 and 4 pentads for the 5 mm threshold and 1 to 7 for the 10 mm and 15 mm thresholds. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis of the dry pentads indicates that there is no significant trend in the frequency of dry spells at a 95% confidence level. The initial and conditional probabilities of getting a dry spell using the Markov chain model also showed that there is a 32% to 80% probability that a single pentad will be dry using the 15 mm threshold. There is a 5% to 48% probability of experiencing two consecutive dry pentads and 1% to 29% probability of getting three consecutive dry pentads. The duration and intensity of dry spells, as well as the Markov chain probabilities, showed a decrease in dry spells from west to east of the maize-growing areas of the summer rainfall region of South Africa.The Water Research Commission and the South African Weather Service.https://watersa.netpm2022Geography, Geoinformatics and MeteorologySchool of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH)UP Centre for Sustainable Malaria Control (UP CSMC

A preliminary investigation of the water use efficiency of sweet sorghum for biofuel in South Africa

Sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) has been recognized globally as a potential biofuel crop for ethanol production. Sweet sorghum is a drought-tolerant crop that is widely adapted to different environmental growing conditions. The aim of this study was to determine the water use efficiency (utilisable yield per unit amount of water used) of drip-irrigated sweet sorghum (variety Sugargraze) under two different climatic conditions in South Africa. The sweet sorghum trials were conducted at Ukulinga research farm (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg) and Hatfield experimental farm (University of Pretoria, Pretoria), South Africa. Field trials were conducted in two successive seasons, viz., 2010/11 and 2011/12. Seasonal water use was estimated using eddy covariance and surface renewal methods. Fresh and dry aboveground biomass yield, stalk yield and stalk Brix % were measured at final harvest. Theoretical ethanol yield was calculated from fresh stalk yield and Brix %. Water use for the two growing seasons was 415 mm at Ukulinga and 398 mm at Hatfield. The ethanol water use efficiency (WUE) values for the sweet sorghum at Ukulinga were 0.27 and 0.60 L∙m-3 for 2010/11 and 2011/12 growing seasons, respectively. The ethanol WUE estimate of the sweet sorghum at Hatfield was 0.53 L∙m-3 for the 2010/11 season and 0.70 L∙m-3 for the 2011/12 growing season. WUE estimates of the sweet sorghum crop were higher for Hatfield compared to Ukulinga research farm. The results from this study showed that the WUE of sweet sorghum was sensitive to plant density. The WUE values confirm that sweet sorghum has high WUE under different climatic conditions.The research presented in this paper forms part of a solicited research project (Water use of cropping systems adapted to bio-climatic regions in South Africa and suitable for biofuel production) that was initiated by the Water Research Commission (WRC) of South Africa in Key Strategic Area on Water Utilisation in Agriculture).Water Research Commission (WRC) of South Africahttp://www.wrc.org.zaam2016Plant Production and Soil Scienc

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Surface renewal method for estimating sensible heat flux

For short canopies, latent energy flux may be estimated using a shortened surface energy balance from measurements of sensible and soil heat flux and the net irradiance at the surface. The surface renewal (SR) method for estimating sensible heat, latent energy, and other scalar fluxes has the advantage over other micrometeorological methods since the method requires only measurement of the scalar of interest at a point and the method may be applied close to the canopy surface, thereby reducing fetch requirements. The SR analysis for estimating sensible heat flux from canopies involves highfrequency air-temperature measurements (typically 2 to 10 Hz) using unshielded and naturally-ventilated 25- to 75-mm diameter fine-wire thermocouples. The SR method is based on the premise that a parcel of air connected to the surface, after it has been enriched or depleted, is renewed by an air parcel from above. There are 2 SR analysis approaches: the ideal SR analysis approach which presumes a constant α factor; and a set of SR approaches that avoid the use of the α calibration factor. The weighting factor α depends on measurement height, canopy structure and stability conditions since it depends on the capability of the highest frequency eddies to mix the scalar within the air parcels renewed by coherent structures. A combination approach using SR and either similarity theory, that requires friction velocity or wind-speed measurements, or dissipation theory, has also been used to estimate H. The combination SR and dissipation method only requires high-frequency air-temperature data and may be considered not to require calibration. The ideal SR and combination SR/ dissipation approaches are the least expensive micrometeorological methods for estimating sensible heat flux and also latent energy flux if one forces closure of the surface energy balance. However, application of SR analysis using slow data-loggers require some expertise since high-frequency air temperature data are not usually stored with the slower data-loggers. Some structure functions can be stored for post-processing and determination of ramp amplitude and ramp period, but the appropriate time lags have to be chosen a priori. Fortunately, modern data-loggers avoid this problem and complex SR analysis approaches can now be applied. However, for routine purposes, applications using the ideal SR analysis approach with slow data-loggers may be of interest since it is a very affordable method.Keywords: surface energy balance, sensible heat flux, latent energy flux, evaporatio

Measurement of grassland evaporation using a surface-layer scintillometer

A dual-beam surface-layer scintillometer (SLS) was used to estimate sensible heat flux (H) every 2 min for a path length of either 50 or 101 m, for more than 30 months in a mesic grassland in eastern South Africa. The SLS method relies on Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, the correlation between the laser beam signal amplitude variances and the covariance of the logarithm of the beam signal amplitude measured using 2 laser detectors. Procedures for checking SLS data integrity in real-time are highlighted as are the post-data collection rejection procedures. From the H estimates, using SLS and measurements of soil heat flux and net irradiance, evaporation rates were calculated as a residual of the shortened energy balance equation and compared with grass reference evaporation rates (ETo). Inconsistent hourly ETo values occur in the late afternoon due to the incorrect assumption that the soil heat flux is 10% of net irradiance. The SLS estimates of H and the estimates of evaporation rate as a residual compared favourably with those obtained using the Bowen ratio and eddy covariance methods for cloudless days, cloudy days and days with variable cloud. There was no evidence for the eddy covariance measurements of H being underestimated in comparison to the Bowen ratio and SLS measurements. On many days, the diurnal variation in SLS H was asymmetrical, peaking before noon.Keywords: energy balance, Bowen ratio, eddy covariance, grass reference evaporation, rejection criteri

The water use of selected fruit tree orchards (volume 2) : technical report on measurement and modelling

Final report to the water research commission and department of agriculture, forestry and fisheries. The water use of selected fruit tree orchards (Volume 2) : technical report on measurements and modelling

Estimating evapotranspiration and determining crop coefficients of irrigated sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) grown in a semi-arid climate

Please read abstract in the article.The Agricultural Research Council Professional Development Programme, the Department of Rural Development and Land Reform, as well as the National Research Foundation of South Africa.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat2021-04-30hj2020Plant Production and Soil Scienc

Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used causespecific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. Findings In 2016, there were 27.08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.30-30.30 million) new cases of TBI and 0.93 million (0.78-1.16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55.50 million (53.40-57.62 million) and of SCI was 27.04 million (24.98-30.15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the agestandardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8.4% (95% UI 7.7 to 9.2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0.2% [-2.1 to 2.7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3.6% (1.8 to 5.5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3.6% [-7.4 to 4.0]). TBI caused 8.1 million (95% UI 6.0-10.4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9.5 million (6.7-12.4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. Interpretation TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments. © 2018 The Author(s)

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license