Using standardized indicators to analyse dry/wet conditions and their application for monitoring drought/floods: A study in the Logone catchment, Lake Chad basin

The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized streamflow index (SSI) were used to analyse dry/wet conditions in the Logone catchment over a 50-year period (1951–2000). The SPI analysis at different time scales showed several meteorological drought events ranging from moderate to extreme; and SSI analysis showed that wetter conditions prevailed in the catchment from 1950 to 1970 interspersed with a few hydrological drought events. Overall, the results indicate that both the Sudano and Sahelian zones are equally prone to droughts and floods. However, the Sudano zone is more sensitive to drier conditions, while the Sahelian zone is sensitive to wetter conditions. Correlation analysis between SPI and SSI at multiple time scales revealed that the catchment has a low response to rainfall at short time scales, though this progressively changed as the time scale increased, with strong correlations (≥0.70) observed after 12 months. Analysis using individual monthly series showed that the response time reduced to 3 months in October

Precipitation regionalization, anomalies and drought occurrence in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

© 2020 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Climate change projections have identified the Yucatan Peninsula as being vulnerable to increasing drought. Understanding spatial and temporal precipitation variability and drought occurrence are therefore important. Drought monitoring in Mexico has been carried out only relatively recently and often without considering the long-term variability in both droughts and precipitation. This research explores the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and occurrence of droughts at a much finer spatial resolution and over a longer temporal period than previous studies. Using statistical (cluster analysis and standardized precipitation index) and geostatistical (kriging) techniques, maps of precipitation and droughts are generated for the period 1980–2011. These show that whilst many previous studies have regarded the Yucatan Peninsula as a homogenous region with respect to precipitation, there are actually four distinctive clusters of precipitation amount, showing climatic variability across the Peninsula. The analyses also show that droughts in the Peninsula are regionalised. Twelve-month Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI), calculated for individual stations and for precipitation surfaces, reveal distinct patterns of spatial and temporal variability. SPI surfaces indicate the occurrence of major droughts in 1981, 1986–1987, 1994, 1996, 2003, 2004 and 2009, but these rarely affect the whole Yucatan Peninsula uniformly. Wetter years, such as 1983, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1995, 2002 and 2005 sometimes reflect the impact of individual extreme events, such as hurricane Isidore in 2002. Our results show that drought can be regionalised, thus enhancing the quality of information about droughts in the area and providing evidence and support for future drought mitigation and environmental protection. These methods could usefully be applied elsewhere

Potent and broad HIV-neutralizing antibodies in memory B cells and plasma

Induction of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) is a goal of HIV-1 vaccine development. Antibody 10E8, reactive with the distal portion of the membrane-proximal external region (MPER) of HIV-1 gp41, is broadly neutralizing. However, the ontogeny of distal MPER antibodies and the relationship of memory B cell to plasma bnAbs are poorly understood. HIV-1–specific memory B cell flow sorting and proteomic identification of anti-MPER plasma antibodies from an HIV-1–infected individual were used to isolate broadly neutralizing distal MPER bnAbs of the same B cell clonal lineage. Structural analysis demonstrated that antibodies from memory B cells and plasma recognized the envelope gp41 bnAb epitope in a distinct orientation compared with other distal MPER bnAbs. The unmutated common ancestor of this distal MPER bnAb was autoreactive, suggesting lineage immune tolerance control. Construction of chimeric antibodies of memory B cell and plasma antibodies yielded a bnAb that potently neutralized most HIV-1 strains

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached$8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total,$40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this,$13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and$1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4$2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7$1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Track A Basic Science

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138319/1/jia218438.pd

Measurement of the correlation between flow harmonics of different order in lead-lead collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Correlations between the elliptic or triangular flow coefficients vm (m=2 or 3) and other flow harmonics vn (n=2 to 5) are measured using √sNN=2.76 TeV Pb+Pb collision data collected in 2010 by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 7 μb−1. The vm−vn correlations are measured in midrapidity as a function of centrality, and, for events within the same centrality interval, as a function of event ellipticity or triangularity defined in a forward rapidity region. For events within the same centrality interval, v3 is found to be anticorrelated with v2 and this anticorrelation is consistent with similar anticorrelations between the corresponding eccentricities, ε2 and ε3. However, it is observed that v4 increases strongly with v2, and v5 increases strongly with both v2 and v3. The trend and strength of the vm−vn correlations for n=4 and 5 are found to disagree with εm−εn correlations predicted by initial-geometry models. Instead, these correlations are found to be consistent with the combined effects of a linear contribution to vn and a nonlinear term that is a function of v22 or of v2v3, as predicted by hydrodynamic models. A simple two-component fit is used to separate these two contributions. The extracted linear and nonlinear contributions to v4 and v5 are found to be consistent with previously measured event-plane correlations