Eliciting Bootstrapping: The Development of Introductory Statistics Students’ Informal Inferential Reasoning via Resampling

Bootstrapping has become an important tool for statisticians, who assert that it is intuitive to novice statistics students. The process of collecting bootstrap resamples was once time demanding, but technology now allows data collection to be performed nearly instantaneously. This study focuses on the construction and development of secondary and tertiary introductory statistics students\u27 (n=68) reasoning about bootstrapping and informal inference. Students engaged in a four-week instructional unit designed as two model development sequences. Through the use of hands-on manipulatives and technology, students constructed and developed reasoning of sampling, the resampling process of bootstrapping, and inference. The focus of my analysis was on the model development of four focus groups of students. Groups of students constructed models of sampling and inference that they used to collect samples, aggregate the samples to form an empirical sampling distribution, and use the aspects of this distribution of samples to make claims about the population from which the samples were drawn. I summarize and categorize groups of students’ models and trace the development of the focus groups’ models throughout the unit. Simulation of data led some students to develop a global view of the randomness of sampling and reason with multiple aspects of empirical sampling distributions to draw inferential claims. Some students applied a multiplicative view of the sample and global view of the sampling process to construct a resampling process similar to bootstrapping, but fell short of constructing the bootstrapping process by not collecting resamples that were equal in size to the original sample. Class discussion of a follow-up activity, similar in structure to the model eliciting activity, encouraged students to consider the value of drawing resamples of equal size to the population and led students to construct the method of bootstrapping. Students then used the bootstrapping process to drawn inferences about one population and to compare two populations of data. The findings of this study contribute to the field of statistics education by examining student thinking while constructing and developing bootstrapping methods, as well as investigating the relationship between this thinking and the drawing of informal inferences. This study demonstrates that it is possible for model development sequences to elicit and develop students’ models of bootstrapping. With the trend in statistics education of moving from the focus on theoretical distributions towards the simulation and analysis of data, these findings have implications towards the design of future introductory statistics curricula

The Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) birth cohort study: Assessment of environmental exposures

The Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development birth cohort was designed to elucidate interactions between environment and genetics underlying development of asthma and allergy. Over 3600 pregnant mothers were recruited from the general population in four provinces with diverse environments. The child is followed to age 5 years, with prospective characterization of diverse exposures during this critical period. Key exposure domains include indoor and outdoor air pollutants, inhalation, ingestion and dermal uptake of chemicals, mold, dampness, biological allergens, pets and pests, housing structure, and living behavior, together with infections, nutrition, psychosocial environment, and medications. Assessments of early life exposures are focused on those linked to inflammatory responses driven by the acquired and innate immune systems. Mothers complete extensive environmental questionnaires including time-activity behavior at recruitment and when the child is 3, 6, 12, 24, 30, 36, 48, and 60 months old. House dust collected during a thorough home assessment at 3–4 months, and biological specimens obtained for multiple exposure-related measurements, are archived for analyses. Geo-locations of homes and daycares and land-use regression for estimating traffic-related air pollution complement time-activity-behavior data to provide comprehensive individual exposure profiles. Several analytical frameworks are proposed to address the many interacting exposure variables and potential issues of co-linearity in this complex data set

Increased Birth Weight Associated with Regular Pre-Pregnancy Deworming and Weekly Iron-Folic Acid Supplementation for Vietnamese Women

Low birth weight is an important risk factor for neonatal and infant morbidity and mortality and may impact on growth and development. Maternal iron deficiency anaemia contributes to intrauterine growth restriction and low birth weight. Hookworm infections and an iron-depleted diet may lead to iron deficiency anaemia, and both are common in many developing countries. A pilot program of deworming and weekly iron-folic acid supplementation for non-pregnant women aiming to prevent iron deficiency was implemented in northern Vietnam. We compared the birth weight of babies born to women who had had access to the intervention to babies born in districts where the intervention had not been implemented. The mean birth weight of the intervention districts' babies was 124 g more than the control districts' babies; the prevalence of low birth weight was also reduced. These results suggest that providing women with deworming and weekly iron-folic acid supplements before pregnancy is associated with increased birth weight in rural Vietnam. This intervention was provided as a health system integrated program which could be replicated in other at-risk rural areas. If so it could increase the impact of prenatal and antenatal programs, improving the health of both women and newborns

Identifying Low pH Active and Lactate-Utilizing Taxa within Oral Microbiome Communities from Healthy Children Using Stable Isotope Probing Techniques

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Many human microbial infectious diseases including dental caries are polymicrobial in nature. How these complex multi-species communities evolve from a healthy to a diseased state is not well understood. Although many health- or disease-associated oral bacteria have been characterized <em>in vitro</em>, their physiology within the complex oral microbiome is difficult to determine with current approaches. In addition, about half of these species remain uncultivated to date with little known besides their 16S rRNA sequence. Lacking culture-based physiological analyses, the functional roles of uncultivated species will remain enigmatic despite their apparent disease correlation. To start addressing these knowledge gaps, we applied a combination of Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) with RNA and DNA based Stable Isotope Probing (SIP) to oral plaque communities from healthy children for <em>in vitro</em> temporal monitoring of metabolites and identification of metabolically active and inactive bacterial species.</p> <h3>Methodology/Principal Findings</h3><p>Supragingival plaque samples from caries-free children incubated with ¹³C-substrates under imposed healthy (buffered, pH 7) and diseased states (pH 5.5 and pH 4.5) produced lactate as the dominant organic acid from glucose metabolism. Rapid lactate utilization upon glucose depletion was observed under pH 7 conditions. SIP analyses revealed a number of genera containing cultured and uncultivated taxa with metabolic capabilities at pH 5.5. The diversity of active species decreased significantly at pH 4.5 and was dominated by <em>Lactobacillus</em> and <em>Propionibacterium</em> species, both of which have been previously found within carious lesions from children.</p> <h3>Conclusions/Significance</h3><p>Our approach allowed for identification of species that metabolize carbohydrates under different pH conditions and supports the importance of Lactobacilli and Propionibacterium in the development of childhood caries. Identification of species within healthy subjects that are active at low pH can lead to a better understanding of oral caries onset and generate appropriate targets for preventative measures in the early stages.</p> </div

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

The Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development (CHILD) birth cohort study: Assessment of environmental exposures

The Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development birth cohort was designed to elucidate interactions between environment and genetics underlying development of asthma and allergy. Over 3600 pregnant mothers were recruited from the general population in four provinces with diverse environments. The child is followed to age 5 years, with prospective characterization of diverse exposures during this critical period. Key exposure domains include indoor and outdoor air pollutants, inhalation, ingestion and dermal uptake of chemicals, mold, dampness, biological allergens, pets and pests, housing structure, and living behavior, together with infections, nutrition, psychosocial environment, and medications. Assessments of early life exposures are focused on those linked to inflammatory responses driven by the acquired and innate immune systems. Mothers complete extensive environmental questionnaires including time-activity behavior at recruitment and when the child is 3, 6, 12, 24, 30, 36, 48, and 60 months old. House dust collected during a thorough home assessment at 3–4 months, and biological specimens obtained for multiple exposure-related measurements, are archived for analyses. Geo-locations of homes and daycares and land-use regression for estimating traffic-related air pollution complement time-activity-behavior data to provide comprehensive individual exposure profiles. Several analytical frameworks are proposed to address the many interacting exposure variables and potential issues of co-linearity in this complex data set

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication