Assessment of satellite rainfall products for streamflow simulation in medium watersheds of the Ethiopian highlands

The objective is to assess the suitability of commonly used high-resolution satellite rainfall products (CMORPH, TMPA 3B42RT, TMPA 3B42 and PERSIANN) as input to the semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT for daily streamflow simulation in two watersheds (Koga at 299 km<sup>2</sup> and Gilgel Abay at 1656 km<sup>2</sup>) of the Ethiopian highlands. First, the model is calibrated for each watershed with respect to each rainfall product input for the period 2003–2004. Then daily streamflow simulations for the validation period 2006–2007 are made from SWAT using rainfall input from each source and corresponding model parameters; comparison of the simulations to the observed streamflow at the outlet of each watershed forms the basis for the conclusions of this study. Results reveal that the utility of satellite rainfall products as input to SWAT for daily streamflow simulation strongly depends on the product type. The 3B42RT and CMORPH simulations show consistent and modest skills in their simulations but underestimate the large flood peaks, while the 3B42 and PERSIANN simulations have inconsistent performance with poor or no skills. Not only are the microwave-based algorithms (3B42RT, CMORPH) better than the infrared-based algorithm (PERSIANN), but the infrared-based algorithm PERSIANN also has poor or no skills for streamflow simulations. The satellite-only product (3B42RT) performs much better than the satellite-gauge product (3B42), indicating that the algorithm used to incorporate rain gauge information with the goal of improving the accuracy of the satellite rainfall products is actually making the products worse, pointing to problems in the algorithm. The effect of watershed area on the suitability of satellite rainfall products for streamflow simulation also depends on the rainfall product. Increasing the watershed area from 299 km<sup>2</sup> to 1656 km<sup>2</sup> improves the simulations obtained from the 3B42RT and CMORPH (i.e. products that are more reliable and consistent) rainfall inputs while it deteriorates the simulations obtained from the 3B42 and PERSIANN (i.e. products that are unstable and inconsistent) rainfall inputs

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Adapting brief problem-solving therapy for pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE: To adapt an evidence-based psychological intervention for pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence (IPV) in rural Ethiopia.METHOD: We conducted a desk review of contextual factors in Sodo, Ethiopia, followed by qualitative interviews with 16 pregnant women and 12 antenatal care (ANC) providers. We engaged stakeholders through participatory theory of change (ToC) workshops, to select the intervention and articulate a programme theory. We used "ADAPT" guidance to adapt the intervention to the context, before mapping potential harms in a "dark logic model".RESULTS: Brief problem-solving therapy developed for South Africa was the most contextually relevant model. We adapted the delivery format (participants prioritised confidentiality and brevity) and training and supervision (addressing IPV). Consensus long-term outcomes in our ToC were ANC providers skilled in detecting and responding to emotional difficulties and IPV, women receiving appropriate support, and emotional difficulties improving. Our dark logic model highlighted the risk of more severe IPV and mental health symptoms not being referred appropriately.CONCLUSION: Although intervention adaptation is recommended, the process is rarely reported in depth. We comprehensively describe how contextual considerations, stakeholder engagement, programme theory, and adaptation can tailor psychological interventions for the target population in a low-income, rural setting.</p

Adapting brief problem-solving therapy for pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE: To adapt an evidence-based psychological intervention for pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence (IPV) in rural Ethiopia.METHOD: We conducted a desk review of contextual factors in Sodo, Ethiopia, followed by qualitative interviews with 16 pregnant women and 12 antenatal care (ANC) providers. We engaged stakeholders through participatory theory of change (ToC) workshops, to select the intervention and articulate a programme theory. We used "ADAPT" guidance to adapt the intervention to the context, before mapping potential harms in a "dark logic model".RESULTS: Brief problem-solving therapy developed for South Africa was the most contextually relevant model. We adapted the delivery format (participants prioritised confidentiality and brevity) and training and supervision (addressing IPV). Consensus long-term outcomes in our ToC were ANC providers skilled in detecting and responding to emotional difficulties and IPV, women receiving appropriate support, and emotional difficulties improving. Our dark logic model highlighted the risk of more severe IPV and mental health symptoms not being referred appropriately.CONCLUSION: Although intervention adaptation is recommended, the process is rarely reported in depth. We comprehensively describe how contextual considerations, stakeholder engagement, programme theory, and adaptation can tailor psychological interventions for the target population in a low-income, rural setting

Problem-solving therapy for pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence:A randomised, controlled feasibility trial in rural Ethiopia

Evidence for the feasibility of brief psychological interventions for pregnant women experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) in rural, low-income country settings is scarce. In rural Ethiopia, the prevalence of antenatal depressive symptoms and lifetime IPV are 29% and 61%, respectively. We aimed to assess the feasibility and related implementation outcomes of brief problem-solving therapy (PST) adapted for pregnant women experiencing IPV (PST-IPV) in rural Ethiopia, and of a randomised, controlled feasibility study design. We recruited 52 pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and past-year IPV from two antenatal care (ANC) services. Consenting women were randomised to PST-IPV (n = 25), 'standard' PST (not adapted for women experiencing IPV; n = 12) or enhanced usual care (information about sources of support; n = 15). Masked data collectors conducted outcome assessments nine weeks post-enrolment. Addis Ababa University (#032/19/CDT) and King's College London (#HR-18/19-9230) approved the study. Fidelity to randomisation was impeded by strong cultural norms about what constituted IPV. However, recruitment was feasible (recruitment rate: 1.5 per day; 37% of women screened were eligible). The intervention and trial were acceptable to women (4% declined initial screening, none declined to participate, and 76% attended all four sessions of either active intervention). PST-IPV was acceptable to ANC providers: none dropped out. Sessions lasting up to a mean 52 minutes raised questions about the appropriateness of the model to this context. Competence assessments recommended supplementary communication skills training. Fidelity assessments indicated high adherence, quality, and responsiveness but assessing risks and social networks, and discussing confidentiality needed improvement. Adjustments to optimise a future, fully powered, randomised controlled trial include staggering recruitment in line with therapist availability, more training on the types of IPV and how to discuss them, automating randomisation, a supervision cascade model, and conducting post-intervention outcome assessments immediately and three months postpartum. Registration: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry #PACTR202002513482084 (13/12/2019): https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=9601

Problem-solving therapy for pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence:A randomised, controlled feasibility trial in rural Ethiopia

Evidence for the feasibility of brief psychological interventions for pregnant women experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) in rural, low-income country settings is scarce. In rural Ethiopia, the prevalence of antenatal depressive symptoms and lifetime IPV are 29% and 61%, respectively. We aimed to assess the feasibility and related implementation outcomes of brief problem-solving therapy (PST) adapted for pregnant women experiencing IPV (PST-IPV) in rural Ethiopia, and of a randomised, controlled feasibility study design. We recruited 52 pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and past-year IPV from two antenatal care (ANC) services. Consenting women were randomised to PST-IPV (n = 25), 'standard' PST (not adapted for women experiencing IPV; n = 12) or enhanced usual care (information about sources of support; n = 15). Masked data collectors conducted outcome assessments nine weeks post-enrolment. Addis Ababa University (#032/19/CDT) and King's College London (#HR-18/19-9230) approved the study. Fidelity to randomisation was impeded by strong cultural norms about what constituted IPV. However, recruitment was feasible (recruitment rate: 1.5 per day; 37% of women screened were eligible). The intervention and trial were acceptable to women (4% declined initial screening, none declined to participate, and 76% attended all four sessions of either active intervention). PST-IPV was acceptable to ANC providers: none dropped out. Sessions lasting up to a mean 52 minutes raised questions about the appropriateness of the model to this context. Competence assessments recommended supplementary communication skills training. Fidelity assessments indicated high adherence, quality, and responsiveness but assessing risks and social networks, and discussing confidentiality needed improvement. Adjustments to optimise a future, fully powered, randomised controlled trial include staggering recruitment in line with therapist availability, more training on the types of IPV and how to discuss them, automating randomisation, a supervision cascade model, and conducting post-intervention outcome assessments immediately and three months postpartum. Registration: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry #PACTR202002513482084 (13/12/2019): https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=9601

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Personal and driving related characteristics as predictors of risky driving behavior among drivers in Debre Tabor Town, Northwest Ethiopia: A mixed method study

Objective: This study aimed to assess the risky driving behavior and associated factors among drivers in Debre Tabor town, Ethiopia, 2020. Methods: This study was a mixed type community-based cross-sectional survey of 564 and 11 participants for quantitative and qualitative study by using a self-administered questionnaire and an interview method, respectively, and the analysis was carried out in 2021. Results: Eighty-two-point one percent (82.1%) of drivers were engaged in risky driving behavior. Driving at night, never attending religious events/ceremonies, driving >8 h/day, believing income is insufficient, weak law enforcement, training institutions problem, being Bajaj driver, and being a non-governmental-driver were significantly associated with risky driving behavior. Conclusion: Risky driving behavior was high among drivers. Being non-governmental driver was the protective factor of risky driving behavior however the rest variables were the risk factors for risky driving behavior. To overcome the problem, appropriate law enforcement measures should be taken

The Galabat-Metema cross-border onchocerciasis focus: The first coordinated interruption of onchocerciasis transmission in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis transmission across international borders is not uncommon, yet a coordinated cross border stops mass drug administration (MDA) decision has not been documented. METHODS/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: The Galabat-Metema focus involves neighboring districts on the border between Sudan and Ethiopia. Mass drug administration (MDA) was provided once and subsequently twice per year in this focus, with twice-per-year beginning in Ethiopia's Metema subfocus in 2016 and in the Sudan's Galabat subfocus in 2008. Ov16 ELISA-based serosurveys were conducted in 6072 children under 10 years of age in the Metema subfocus in 2014, and 3931 in the Galabat in 2015. Between 2014 and 2016, a total of 27,583 vector Simulium damnosum flies from Metema and 9,148 flies from Galabat were tested by pool screen PCR for Onchocerca volvulus O-150 DNA. Only 8 children were Ov16 seropositive (all in the Metema subfocus); all were negative by skin snip PCR. The upper limit of the 95% confidence interval (UCL) for Ov16 seropositive was <0.1% for the overall focus and 0.14 positive fly heads per 2000 (UCL = 0.39/2000). However, an entomological 'hotspot' was detected on the Wudi Gemzu river in Metema district. The hotspot was confirmed when 4 more positive fly pools were found on repeat testing in 2017 (1.04 L3/2000 flies (UCL = 2.26/2000). Information exchange between the two countries led to stopping MDA in a coordinated fashion in 2018, with the exception of the hotspot at Wudi Gemzu, where MDA with ivermectin was increased to every three months to hasten interruption of transmission. CONCLUSION: Coordinated stop MDA decisions were made by Sudan and Ethiopia based on data satisfying the World Health Organization's criteria for interruption of onchocerciasis transmission. Definitions of entomological 'hotspots' and buffer zones around the focus are proposed