Assessment of satellite rainfall products for streamflow simulation in medium watersheds of the Ethiopian highlands

The objective is to assess the suitability of commonly used high-resolution satellite rainfall products (CMORPH, TMPA 3B42RT, TMPA 3B42 and PERSIANN) as input to the semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT for daily streamflow simulation in two watersheds (Koga at 299 km<sup>2</sup> and Gilgel Abay at 1656 km<sup>2</sup>) of the Ethiopian highlands. First, the model is calibrated for each watershed with respect to each rainfall product input for the period 2003–2004. Then daily streamflow simulations for the validation period 2006–2007 are made from SWAT using rainfall input from each source and corresponding model parameters; comparison of the simulations to the observed streamflow at the outlet of each watershed forms the basis for the conclusions of this study. Results reveal that the utility of satellite rainfall products as input to SWAT for daily streamflow simulation strongly depends on the product type. The 3B42RT and CMORPH simulations show consistent and modest skills in their simulations but underestimate the large flood peaks, while the 3B42 and PERSIANN simulations have inconsistent performance with poor or no skills. Not only are the microwave-based algorithms (3B42RT, CMORPH) better than the infrared-based algorithm (PERSIANN), but the infrared-based algorithm PERSIANN also has poor or no skills for streamflow simulations. The satellite-only product (3B42RT) performs much better than the satellite-gauge product (3B42), indicating that the algorithm used to incorporate rain gauge information with the goal of improving the accuracy of the satellite rainfall products is actually making the products worse, pointing to problems in the algorithm. The effect of watershed area on the suitability of satellite rainfall products for streamflow simulation also depends on the rainfall product. Increasing the watershed area from 299 km<sup>2</sup> to 1656 km<sup>2</sup> improves the simulations obtained from the 3B42RT and CMORPH (i.e. products that are more reliable and consistent) rainfall inputs while it deteriorates the simulations obtained from the 3B42 and PERSIANN (i.e. products that are unstable and inconsistent) rainfall inputs

Adapting brief problem-solving therapy for pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE: To adapt an evidence-based psychological intervention for pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence (IPV) in rural Ethiopia.METHOD: We conducted a desk review of contextual factors in Sodo, Ethiopia, followed by qualitative interviews with 16 pregnant women and 12 antenatal care (ANC) providers. We engaged stakeholders through participatory theory of change (ToC) workshops, to select the intervention and articulate a programme theory. We used "ADAPT" guidance to adapt the intervention to the context, before mapping potential harms in a "dark logic model".RESULTS: Brief problem-solving therapy developed for South Africa was the most contextually relevant model. We adapted the delivery format (participants prioritised confidentiality and brevity) and training and supervision (addressing IPV). Consensus long-term outcomes in our ToC were ANC providers skilled in detecting and responding to emotional difficulties and IPV, women receiving appropriate support, and emotional difficulties improving. Our dark logic model highlighted the risk of more severe IPV and mental health symptoms not being referred appropriately.CONCLUSION: Although intervention adaptation is recommended, the process is rarely reported in depth. We comprehensively describe how contextual considerations, stakeholder engagement, programme theory, and adaptation can tailor psychological interventions for the target population in a low-income, rural setting

Problem-solving therapy for pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence:A randomised, controlled feasibility trial in rural Ethiopia

Evidence for the feasibility of brief psychological interventions for pregnant women experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) in rural, low-income country settings is scarce. In rural Ethiopia, the prevalence of antenatal depressive symptoms and lifetime IPV are 29% and 61%, respectively. We aimed to assess the feasibility and related implementation outcomes of brief problem-solving therapy (PST) adapted for pregnant women experiencing IPV (PST-IPV) in rural Ethiopia, and of a randomised, controlled feasibility study design. We recruited 52 pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and past-year IPV from two antenatal care (ANC) services. Consenting women were randomised to PST-IPV (n = 25), 'standard' PST (not adapted for women experiencing IPV; n = 12) or enhanced usual care (information about sources of support; n = 15). Masked data collectors conducted outcome assessments nine weeks post-enrolment. Addis Ababa University (#032/19/CDT) and King's College London (#HR-18/19-9230) approved the study. Fidelity to randomisation was impeded by strong cultural norms about what constituted IPV. However, recruitment was feasible (recruitment rate: 1.5 per day; 37% of women screened were eligible). The intervention and trial were acceptable to women (4% declined initial screening, none declined to participate, and 76% attended all four sessions of either active intervention). PST-IPV was acceptable to ANC providers: none dropped out. Sessions lasting up to a mean 52 minutes raised questions about the appropriateness of the model to this context. Competence assessments recommended supplementary communication skills training. Fidelity assessments indicated high adherence, quality, and responsiveness but assessing risks and social networks, and discussing confidentiality needed improvement. Adjustments to optimise a future, fully powered, randomised controlled trial include staggering recruitment in line with therapist availability, more training on the types of IPV and how to discuss them, automating randomisation, a supervision cascade model, and conducting post-intervention outcome assessments immediately and three months postpartum. Registration: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry #PACTR202002513482084 (13/12/2019): https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=9601

Problem-solving therapy for pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and intimate partner violence:A randomised, controlled feasibility trial in rural Ethiopia

Evidence for the feasibility of brief psychological interventions for pregnant women experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) in rural, low-income country settings is scarce. In rural Ethiopia, the prevalence of antenatal depressive symptoms and lifetime IPV are 29% and 61%, respectively. We aimed to assess the feasibility and related implementation outcomes of brief problem-solving therapy (PST) adapted for pregnant women experiencing IPV (PST-IPV) in rural Ethiopia, and of a randomised, controlled feasibility study design. We recruited 52 pregnant women experiencing depressive symptoms and past-year IPV from two antenatal care (ANC) services. Consenting women were randomised to PST-IPV (n = 25), 'standard' PST (not adapted for women experiencing IPV; n = 12) or enhanced usual care (information about sources of support; n = 15). Masked data collectors conducted outcome assessments nine weeks post-enrolment. Addis Ababa University (#032/19/CDT) and King's College London (#HR-18/19-9230) approved the study. Fidelity to randomisation was impeded by strong cultural norms about what constituted IPV. However, recruitment was feasible (recruitment rate: 1.5 per day; 37% of women screened were eligible). The intervention and trial were acceptable to women (4% declined initial screening, none declined to participate, and 76% attended all four sessions of either active intervention). PST-IPV was acceptable to ANC providers: none dropped out. Sessions lasting up to a mean 52 minutes raised questions about the appropriateness of the model to this context. Competence assessments recommended supplementary communication skills training. Fidelity assessments indicated high adherence, quality, and responsiveness but assessing risks and social networks, and discussing confidentiality needed improvement. Adjustments to optimise a future, fully powered, randomised controlled trial include staggering recruitment in line with therapist availability, more training on the types of IPV and how to discuss them, automating randomisation, a supervision cascade model, and conducting post-intervention outcome assessments immediately and three months postpartum. Registration: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry #PACTR202002513482084 (13/12/2019): https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=9601

The Galabat-Metema cross-border onchocerciasis focus: The first coordinated interruption of onchocerciasis transmission in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis transmission across international borders is not uncommon, yet a coordinated cross border stops mass drug administration (MDA) decision has not been documented. METHODS/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: The Galabat-Metema focus involves neighboring districts on the border between Sudan and Ethiopia. Mass drug administration (MDA) was provided once and subsequently twice per year in this focus, with twice-per-year beginning in Ethiopia's Metema subfocus in 2016 and in the Sudan's Galabat subfocus in 2008. Ov16 ELISA-based serosurveys were conducted in 6072 children under 10 years of age in the Metema subfocus in 2014, and 3931 in the Galabat in 2015. Between 2014 and 2016, a total of 27,583 vector Simulium damnosum flies from Metema and 9,148 flies from Galabat were tested by pool screen PCR for Onchocerca volvulus O-150 DNA. Only 8 children were Ov16 seropositive (all in the Metema subfocus); all were negative by skin snip PCR. The upper limit of the 95% confidence interval (UCL) for Ov16 seropositive was <0.1% for the overall focus and 0.14 positive fly heads per 2000 (UCL = 0.39/2000). However, an entomological 'hotspot' was detected on the Wudi Gemzu river in Metema district. The hotspot was confirmed when 4 more positive fly pools were found on repeat testing in 2017 (1.04 L3/2000 flies (UCL = 2.26/2000). Information exchange between the two countries led to stopping MDA in a coordinated fashion in 2018, with the exception of the hotspot at Wudi Gemzu, where MDA with ivermectin was increased to every three months to hasten interruption of transmission. CONCLUSION: Coordinated stop MDA decisions were made by Sudan and Ethiopia based on data satisfying the World Health Organization's criteria for interruption of onchocerciasis transmission. Definitions of entomological 'hotspots' and buffer zones around the focus are proposed

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths