Выбор режима работы термоэлектрического охлаждающего устройства (ТЭУ), обеспечивающего минимальную интенсивность отказов

Выполнен сравнительный анализ показателей надежности ТЭУ для различных токовых режимов. Показана возможность прогнозирования показателей надежности на стадии проектирования устройств

Clustering of chronic hepatitis B screening intentions in social networks of Moroccan immigrants in the Netherlands

Background Early detection, identification, and treatment of chronic hepatitis B through screening is vital for those at increased risk, e.g. born in hepatitis B endemic countries. In the Netherlands, Moroccan immigrants show low participation rates in health-related screening programmes. Since social networks influence health behaviour, we investigated whether similar screening intentions for chronic hepatitis B cluster within social networks of Moroccan immigrants. Methods We used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) where each participant ("recruiter") was asked to complete a questionnaire and to recruit three Moroccans ("recruitees") from their social network. Logistic regression analyses were used to analyse whether the recruiters' intention to request a screening test was similar to the intention of their recruitees. Results We sampled 354 recruiter-recruitee pairs: for 154 pairs both participants had a positive screening intention, for 68 pairs both had a negative screening intention, and the remaining 132 pairs had a discordant intention to request a screening test. A tie between a recruiter and recruitee was associated with having the same screening intention, after correction for sociodemographic variables (OR 1.70 [1.15-2.51]). Conclusions The findings of our pilot study show clustering of screening intention among individuals in the same network. This provides opportunities for social network interventions to encourage participation in hepatitis B screening initiatives

Regional determinants of China’s consumption-based emissions in the economic transition

China has entered the economic transition in the post-financial crisis era, with unprecedented new features that significantly lead to a decline in its carbon emissions. However, regional disparity implies different trajectories in regional decarbonisation. Here, we construct multi-regional input-output tables (MRIO) for 2012 and 2015 and quantitatively evaluate the regional disparity in decarbonisation and the driving forces during 2012-2015. We found China's consumption-based emissions peaked in 2013, largely driven by a peak in consumption-based emissions from developing regions. Declined intensity and industrial structures are determinants due to the economic transition. The rise of the Southwest and Central regions of China have become a new feature, driving up emissions embodied in trade and have reinforced the pattern of carbon flows in the post-financial crisis period. Export-related emissions have bounced up after years of decline, attributed to soaring export volume and export structure in the Southeast and North of the country. The disparity in developing regions has become the new feature in shaping China's economy and decarbonisation

Recommendations in pre-registrations and internal review board proposals promote formal power analyses but do not increase sample size

In this preregistered study, we investigated whether the statistical power of a study is higher when researchers are asked to make a formal power analysis before collecting data. We compared the sample size descriptions from two sources: (i) a sample of pre-registrations created according to the guidelines for the Center for Open Science Preregistration Challenge (PCRs) and a sample of institutional review board (IRB) proposals from Tilburg School of Behavior and Social Sciences, which both include a recommendation to do a formal power analysis, and (ii) a sample of pre-registrations created according to the guidelines for Open Science Framework Standard Pre-Data Collection Registrations (SPRs) in which no guidance on sample size planning is given. We found that PCRs and IRBs (72%) more often included sample size decisions based on power analyses than the SPRs (45%). However, this did not result in larger planned sample sizes. The determined sample size of the PCRs and IRB proposals (Md = 90.50) was not higher than the determined sample size of the SPRs (Md = 126.00; W = 3389.5, p = 0.936). Typically, power analyses in the registrations were conducted with G*power, assuming a medium effect size, α = .05 and a power of .80. Only 20% of the power analyses contained enough information to fully reproduce the results and only 62% of these power analyses pertained to the main hypothesis test in the pre-registration. Therefore, we see ample room for improvements in the quality of the registrations and we offer several recommendations to do so

Role of export industries on ozone pollution and its precursors in China

This study seeks to estimate how global supply chain relocates emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors and its impacts in shaping ozone formation. Here we show that goods produced in China for foreign markets lead to an increase of domestic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions by 3.5 million tons in 2013; about 13% of the national total or, equivalent to half of emissions from European Union. Production for export increases concentration of NMVOCs (including some carcinogenic species) and peak ozone levels by 20–30% and 6–15% respectively, in the coastal areas. It contributes to an estimated 16,889 (3,839–30,663, 95% CI) premature deaths annually combining the effects of NMVOCs and ozone, but could be reduced by nearly 40% by closing the technology gap between China and EU. Export demand also alters the emission ratios between NMVOCs and nitrogen oxides and hence the ozone chemistry in the east and south coast

Honesty and dishonesty in gossip strategies: a fitness interdependence analysis

Gossip, or sharing information about absent others, has been identified as an effective solution to free rider problems in situations with conflicting interests. Yet, the information transmitted via gossip can be biased, because gossipers may send dishonest information about others for personal gains. Such dishonest gossip makes reputation-based cooperation more difficult to evolve. But when are people likely to share honest or dishonest gossip? We build formal models to provide the theoretical foundation for individuals' gossip strategies, taking into account the gossiper's fitness interdependence with the receiver and the target. Our models across four different games suggest a very simple rule: when there is a perfect match (mismatch) between fitness interdependence and the effect of honest gossip, the gossiper should always be honest (dishonest); however, in the case of a partial match, the gossiper should make a choice based on their fitness interdependence with the receiver and the target and the marginal cost/benefit in terms of pay-off differences caused by possible choices of the receiver and the target in the game. Moreover, gossipers can use this simple rule to make optimal decisions even under noise. We discuss empirical examples that support the predictions of our model and potential extensions. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The language of cooperation: reputation and honest signalling’.</jats:p

Justify your alpha

Benjamin et al. proposed changing the conventional “statistical significance” threshold (i.e.,the alpha level) from p ≤ .05 to p ≤ .005 for all novel claims with relatively low prior odds. They provided two arguments for why lowering the significance threshold would “immediately improve the reproducibility of scientific research.” First, a p-value near .05provides weak evidence for the alternative hypothesis. Second, under certain assumptions, an alpha of .05 leads to high false positive report probabilities (FPRP2 ; the probability that a significant finding is a false positive

Same data, different conclusions: Radical dispersion in empirical results when independent analysts operationalize and test the same hypothesis

In this crowdsourced initiative, independent analysts used the same dataset to test two hypotheses regarding the effects of scientists’ gender and professional status on verbosity during group meetings. Not only the analytic approach but also the operationalizations of key variables were left unconstrained and up to individual analysts. For instance, analysts could choose to operationalize status as job title, institutional ranking, citation counts, or some combination. To maximize transparency regarding the process by which analytic choices are made, the analysts used a platform we developed called DataExplained to justify both preferred and rejected analytic paths in real time. Analyses lacking sufficient detail, reproducible code, or with statistical errors were excluded, resulting in 29 analyses in the final sample. Researchers reported radically different analyses and dispersed empirical outcomes, in a number of cases obtaining significant effects in opposite directions for the same research question. A Boba multiverse analysis demonstrates that decisions about how to operationalize variables explain variability in outcomes above and beyond statistical choices (e.g., covariates). Subjective researcher decisions play a critical role in driving the reported empirical results, underscoring the need for open data, systematic robustness checks, and transparency regarding both analytic paths taken and not taken. Implications for organizations and leaders, whose decision making relies in part on scientific findings, consulting reports, and internal analyses by data scientists, are discussed

Spreading information and developing trust in social networks to accelerate diffusion of innovations

Background: New food technologies developed by producers who want to spread their innovation require potential new adopters to receive information about the innovation as well as to develop trust about the appropriateness and quality of the new technology. Social networks are key for spreading information and for developing trust. In this essay, I will summarize sociological knowledge about how the structure of social networks can accelerate or inhibit innovation diffusion among consumers. Scope and approach: Innovation adoption is mostly a multistage process in which potential adopters/consumers need to obtain information first. A second step towards adoption is developing appreciation for the advantages of the innovation. A third step is the development of trust that the new product or technology indeed brings the advantages that it promises. I will explain based on existing literature why and in what manner, different structural properties of social networks are crucial for the consumer side of the adoption process. Key findings and conclusions: While for information diffusion predominantly the number of channels through which information can flow is important, and prevention of redundant information transfers helps to speed up information, the appreciation for the advantages of the innovation will require some redundancy and recurrent confirmation of the success of the innovation. To develop trust, even more confirmation is likely to be important and close social circles in which people repeatedly meet and know each other's acquaintances are known to be especially beneficial to create trust

Strategic tie formation for long-term exchange relations

Theory and empirical research have established that repeated interactions foster cooperation in social dilemmas. These effects of repeated interactions are meanwhile well known. Given these effects, actors have incentives for strategic tie formation in social dilemmas: they have incentives to establish long-term relations involving repeated interactions. Perhaps surprisingly, models accounting for strategic tie formation are scarce. We introduce and analyze a new game-theoretic model that captures the well-known effects of repeated interactions, while simultaneously endogenizing the formation of long-term relations. We assume strict game-theoretic rationality as well as self-regarding preferences. We highlight the commitment feature of tie formation: through establishing a long-term relation, at cost, actors ensure that they would suffer themselves from future sanctions of own opportunism. This allows for mutually beneficial cooperation in the first place. Some extensions of the model are discussed