Predictors of unintended pregnancy in Kersa, Eastern Ethiopia, 2010

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Ethiopia, little is known about pregnancy among rural women. Proper maternal health care depends on clear understanding of the reproductive health situation. The objective of this study was to identify predictors of unintended pregnancy in rural eastern Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methodology</p> <p>This study was part of pregnancy surveillance at Kersa Demographic Surveillance and Health Research Center, East Ethiopia. Pregnant women were assessed whether their current pregnancy was intended or not. Data were collected by lay interviewers using uniform questionnaire. Odds Ratio, with 95% confidence interval using multiple and multinomial logistic regression were calculated to detect level of significance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Unintended pregnancy was reported by 27.9% (578/2072) of the study subjects. Out of which, 440 were mistimed and 138 were not wanted. Unintended pregnancy was associated with family wealth status (OR 1.47; 95% CI 1.14, 1.90), high parity (7 +) (OR 5.18; 95% CI 3.31, 8.12), and a longer estimated time to walk to the nearest health care facility (OR 2.24; 95% CI: 1.49, 3.39).</p> <p>In the multinomial regression, women from poor family reported that their pregnancy was mistimed (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.27, 2.25). The longer estimated time (80 + minutes) to walk to the nearest health care facility influenced the occurrence of mistimed pregnancy (OR 2.58; 95% CI: 1.65, 4.02). High parity (7+) showed a strong association to mistimed and unwanted pregnancies (OR 3.11; 95% CI 1.87, 5.12) and (OR 14.34; 95% CI 5.72, 35.98), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The economy of the family, parity, and walking distance to the nearest health care institution are strong predictors of unintended pregnancy. In order to reduce the high rate of unintended pregnancy Efforts to reach rural women with family planning services should be strengthened.</p

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories

Therapeutic efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine (Coartem®) in treating uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Metehara, Eastern Ethiopia: regulatory clinical study

Background: As per the WHO recommendation, the development of resistance by P. falciparum to most artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) triggered the need for routine monitoring of the efficacy of the drugs every two years in all malaria endemic countries. Hence, this study was carried out to assess the therapeutic efficacy of Artemether-Lumefantrine (Coartem®) in treating the uncomplicated falciparum malaria, after 9 years of its introduction in the Metehara, Eastern Ethiopia. Method: This is part of the therapeutic efficacy studies by the Federal Ministry of Health Ethiopia, which were conducted in regionally representative sentinel sites in the country from October 2014 to January 2015. Based on the study criteria set by WHO, febrile and malaria suspected outpatients in the health center were consecutively recruited to study. A standard six-dose regimen of AL was administered over three days and followed up for measuring therapeutic responses over 28 days. Data entry and analysis was done by using the WHO designed Excel spreadsheet and SPSS version 20 for Windows. Statistical significant was considered for P-value less than 0.05. Result: Of the 91 patients enrolled, the day-28 analysis showed 83 adequate clinical and parasitological responses (ACPRs). Per protocol analysis, PCR-uncorrected & corrected cure rates of Coartem® among the study participants were 97.6% (95%CI: 93.6-99.5) and 98.8% (CI: 93.5-100%), respectively. No parasite detected on day 3 and onwards. Fever clearance was above 91% on day-3. Mean hemoglobin was significantly increased (

Incidence and Risk Factors of Neonatal Mortality in Eastern Ethiopia, A Prospective Cohort Study in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Kersa HDSS)

Background: So far few studies were done to determine predictors of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia. This study was aimed to provide information on the incidence and risk factors of neonatal survival in Eastern Ethiopia from September, 2007 to August, 2012. Methods: The study uses data extracted from Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance (Kersa HDSS) System database, which is located in the Oromiya Regional State, Eastern Ethiopia. The surveillance system is an open cohort, which was established in 2007. Data extraction includes all live births recorded in the system. The main outcome variable was the occurrence of death within 28 days after birth (neonatal death). The survival time was calculated in days using the time interval between the date of birth and date of event (death). Kaplan-Meier model and Cox-proportional hazard techniques were used to identify predictors of neonatal death. Results: The overall, Early and Late Neonatal Mortality Rate was 28.37, 19.55 and 8.82 per 1000 live births, respectively.&nbsp; A Neonatal Mortality Incidence Rate was 1 per 1000 (95% CI, 0.87-1.15) person days. Risk factors of neonatal survival include birth type (HR=5.40; 95% CI, 3.64-8.02), preterm birth (HR=11.17; 95% CI, 7.17-17.40), and previous infant sibling born (died HR=2.15; 95% CI, 1.39-3.33: no previous birth HR=1.78; 95% CI, 1.17-2.72). Conclusion: A significantly high level of neonatal mortality incidence rate was observed, which majority of the neonatal deaths were found to occur at early neonatal period. Therefore, efforts needs to be exerted in addressing the risk factors identified as predictors of neonatal mortality.&nbsp

Open-label trial on efficacy of artemether/lumefantrine against the uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Metema district, Northwestern Ethiopia

Feven Wudneh,1,2 Ashenafi Assefa,3 Desalegn Nega,3 Hussien Mohammed,3 Hiwot Solomon,4 Tadesse Kebede,2 Adugna Woyessa,3 Yibeltal Assefa,3 Amha Kebede,3 Moges Kassa3 1Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Parasitology, School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, 2Biomedical Department, College of Health Sciences and Medicine, Dilla University, Dilla, 3Malaria and Other Parasitological and Entomological Research Team, Bacterial, Parasitic and Zoonotic Diseases Research Directorate, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, 4Malaria Research Team, Disease Prevention and Control Directorate, Federal Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Purpose: Following the increased Plasmodium falciparum resistance to chloroquine and sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine, Ethiopia adopted artemether/lumefantrine (AL) as the first-line treatment for uncomplicated P. falciparum in 2004. According to the recommendation of the World Health Organization, this study was carried out for regular monitoring of the efficacy of AL in treating the uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Metema district, Gondar Zone, Northwest Ethiopia.Patients and methods: This is a one-arm prospective 28-day in vivo therapeutic efficacy study among the uncomplicated P. falciparum&nbsp;malaria patients aged 6&nbsp;months and older. The study was conducted from October 2014 to January 2015, based on the revised World Health Organization protocol of 2009 for surveillance of antimalarial drug therapeutic efficacy study. Standard six-dose regimen of AL was given twice daily for 3&nbsp;days, and then the treatment outcomes were assessed on days 0, 1, 2, 3, 7, 14, 21, 28, and any other unscheduled day for emergency cases.Results: There were 91 study subjects enrolled in this study, of whom 80 study subjects completed the full follow-up schedules and showed adequate clinical and parasitological responses on day 28, with no major adverse event. Per protocol analysis, the unadjusted cure rate of Coartem&reg; was 98.8% (95% confidence interval: 93.3%&ndash;100%) in the study area. Recurrence of one&nbsp;P. falciparum&nbsp;case was detected on day 28, with a late parasitological failure rate of 1.2%. No early treatment failure occurred. Complete parasite and fever clearance was observed on day 3. Gametocyte carriage was 4.4% at enrollment that cleared on day 21. Although the difference is statistically not significant, a slight increase in the level of mean hemoglobin from baseline to day 28 was observed.Conclusion: The study showed high efficacy and tolerability of Coartem&reg; against uncomplicated&nbsp;P. falciparum&nbsp;malaria, suggesting the continuation as a first-line drug in the study district. However, regular monitoring of the therapeutic efficacy of the drug, possibly with plasma drug-level measurement, is critical among the mobile border population. Keywords: artemether/lumefantrine, cure rate, parasite clearance, fever clearance, uncomplicated malari

Open-label trial on efficacy of artemether/lumefantrine against the uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Metema district, Northwestern Ethiopia

Purpose: Following the increased Plasmodium falciparum resistance to chloroquine and sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine, Ethiopia adopted artemether/lumefantrine (AL) as the first-line treatment for uncomplicated P.falciparum in 2004.According to the recommendation of the World Health Organization, this study was carried out for regular monitoring of the efficacy of AL in treating the uncomplicated P.falciparum malaria in Metema district, Gondar Zone, Northwest Ethiopia.Patients and methods: This is a one-arm prospective 28-day in vivo therapeutic efficacy study among the uncomplicated P.falciparum malaria patients aged 6 months and older.The study was conducted from October 2014 to January 2015, based on the revised World Health Organization protocol of 2009 for surveillance of antimalarial drug therapeutic efficacy study.Standard six-dose regimen of AL was given twice daily for 3 days, and then the treatment outcomes were assessed on days 0, 1, 2, 3, 7, 14, 21, 28, and any other unscheduled day for emergency cases.Results: There were 91 study subjects enrolled in this study, of whom 80 study subjects completed the full follow-up schedules and showed adequate clinical and parasitological responses on day 28, with no major adverse event.Per protocol analysis, the unadjusted cure rate of Coartem® was 98.8% (95% confidence interval: 93.3%-100%) in the study area.Recurrence of one P.falciparum case was detected on day 28, with a late parasitological failure rate of 1.2%.No early treatment failure occurred.Complete parasite and fever clearance was observed on day 3.Gametocyte carriage was 4.4% at enrollment that cleared on day 21.Although the difference is statistically not significant, a slight increase in the level of mean hemoglobin from baseline to day 28 was observed.Conclusion: The study showed high efficacy and tolerability of Coartem® against uncomplicated P.falciparum malaria, suggesting the continuation as a first-line drug in the study district.However, regular monitoring of the therapeutic efficacy of the drug, possibly with plasma drug-level measurement, is critical among the mobile border population