Rethinking project selection at the Monterey Bay Aquarium

The article of record as published may be found at https://www.jstor.org/stable/25062652In 1995, the Monterey Bay Aquarium started an experimental business unit called Electronic Outreach. Electronic Outreach's mission was to employ emerging technologies to deliver the aquarium's messages of ocean stewardship to diverse and scattered audiences. Faced with many projects from which to choose, the Electronic Outreach team wanted to determine which projects were most likely to succeed before they actually had to dedicate resources to development. We constructed two models to help them accomplish this: a multiattribute-value model to quantify a project's alignment with the aquarium's mission and a discounted-cash-flow model to quantify a project's viability as a business venture. We then combined the outputs of these two models into a two-dimensional frame work to allow the Electronic Outreach team members to focus on monetary-nonmonetary trade-offs when evaluating potential projects

A Giant Outburst at Millimeter Wavelengths in the Orion Nebula

BIMA observations of the Orion nebula discovered a giant flare from a young star previously undetected at millimeter wavelengths. The star briefly became the brightest compact object in the nebula at 86 GHz. Its flux density increased by more than a factor of 5 on a timescale of hours, to a peak of 160 mJy. This is one of the most luminous stellar radio flares ever observed. Remarkably, the Chandra X-ray observatory was in the midst of a deep integration of the Orion nebula at the time of the BIMA discovery; the source's X-ray flux increased by a factor of 10 approximately 2 days before the radio detection. Follow-up radio observations with the VLA and BIMA showed that the source decayed on a timescale of days, then flared again several times over the next 70 days, although never as brightly as during the discovery. Circular polarization was detected at 15, 22, and 43 GHz, indicating that the emission mechanism was cyclotron. VLBA observations 9 days after the initial flare yield a brightness temperature Tb > 5 x 10^7 K at 15 GHz. Infrared spectroscopy indicates the source is a K5V star with faint Br gamma emission, suggesting that it is a weak-line T Tauri object. Zeeman splitting measurements in the infrared spectrum find B ~ 2.6 +/- 1.0 kG. The flare is an extreme example of magnetic activity associated with a young stellar object. These data suggest that short observations obtained with ALMA will uncover hundreds of flaring young stellar objects in the Orion region.Comment: 29 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

CMS physics technical design report : Addendum on high density QCD with heavy ions

Peer reviewe

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Elective cancer surgery in COVID-19-free surgical pathways during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An international, multicenter, comparative cohort study

PURPOSE As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19–free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19–free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19–free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19–free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score–matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19–free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

A Bayesian Approach to Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis has traditionally been applied to decision models to quantify the stability of a preferred alternative to parametric variation. In the health literature, sensitivity measures have traditionally been based upon distance metrics, payoff variations, and probability measures. We advocate a new approach based on information value and argue that such an approach is better suited to address the decision-maker's real concerns. We provide an example comparing conventional sensitivity analysis to one based on information value. This article is a US government work and is in the public domain in the United States.This work was supported by funding from the Decision, Risk and Management Science Program at the National Science Foundation

Foreign exchange and lost opportunity in the US Department of Defense

Abstract This paper examines US Department of Defense (DoD) foreign exchange rate exposure in light of the government's prohibition against foreign currency hedging. Using data from the United States Air Force and Monte Carlo simulation, we evaluate whether the use of forward foreign exchange contracts or currency options might reduce the financial impact of currency fluctuation. The results strongly indicate that these alternatives outperform the current method for dealing with foreign currency exposure in the DoD. Using forward contracts, expected cost reductions are on the order of 3.5% of current outlays. For options, expected cost reductions increase to 6.4% thereby defining an upper bound of 2.9% on acceptable option premium levels