The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: overview and over-arching analysis plan

This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) – Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016). The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs

Contribution of teaching in metacognitive processes and the resolution of mathematical problems

The present study evaluates the contribution of teaching from problem solving to metacognitive processes (Analysis, Planning, Local Monitoring and Global Monitoring) problem solving. The sample consisted of 41 second grade students from a public school in the department of Atlántico (Colombia). Observation was used as the main technique through video recordings of the classes, in addition the Teaching Practice Observation Format and a Semistructured Flexible Interview were used. The participants were selected by means of a nonprobabilistic sampling of intentional type. Regarding the results, the average scores in the metacognitive processes were examined, as well as their relationship at the bivariate level (Pearson's correlation) with the success in solving quantitative reasoning problems. Finally, the predictive variables of success were examined and 43.7% of the Local Monitoring variance was explained by practice at the Start of class and 39.4% of the Global Monitoring variance was explained by practice at Class Closing. . The results obtained in relation to the practice in the classroom are discussed and a series of final recommendations are suggested that contribute to the success in solving mathematical problems to make decisions directed towards the improvement of the curricular processes.El presente estudio evalúa la contribución de la enseñanza desde la resolución de problemas a los procesos Metacognitivos (Análisis, Planeación, Monitoreo Local y Monitoreo Global) de resolución de problemas. La muestra estuvo conformada por 41 estudiantes de segundo grado de un colegio público del departamento del Atlántico (Colombia). Se empleó la observación como técnica principal mediante videograbaciones de las clases, además se empleó el Formato de Observación de la Práctica Docente y se hizo una Entrevista Flexible Semiestructurada. Los participantes fueron seleccionados mediante un muestreo no probabilístico de tipo intencional. Respecto a los resultados, se examinaron las puntuaciones medias en los procesos Metacognitivos, así como su relación a nivel bivariado (correlación de Pearson) con el éxito en la resolución de problemas de razonamiento cuantitativo. Finalmente, se examinaron las variables predictoras del éxito y se comprobó el 43.7% de la varianza de Monitoreo Local fue explicada por la práctica al Inicio de clase y el 39.4% de la varianza de Monitoreo Global fue explicada por la práctica al Cierre de la Clase. Se discuten los resultados obtenidos en relación con la práctica en el aula y se sugiere una serie de recomendaciones finales que contribuyan al éxito en resolución de problemas matemáticos para tomar decisiones direccionadas hacia el mejoramiento de los procesos curriculares

Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context

Large-scale millennial length Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstructions have been progressively improved over the last 20 years as new datasets have been developed. This paper, and its companion (Part II, Anchukaitis et al. in prep), details the latest tree-ring (TR) based NH land air temperature reconstruction from a temporal and spatial perspective. This work is the first product of a consortium called N-TREND (Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring Network Development) which brings together dendroclimatologists to identify a collective strategy for improving large-scale summer temperature reconstructions. The new reconstruction, N-TREND2015, utilises 54 records, a significant expansion compared with previous TR studies, and yields an improved reconstruction with stronger statistical calibration metrics. N-TREND2015 is relatively insensitive to the compositing method and spatial weighting used and validation metrics indicate that the new record portrays reasonable coherence with large scale summer temperatures and is robust at all time-scales from 918 to 2004 where at least 3 TR records exist from each major continental mass. N-TREND2015 indicates a longer and warmer medieval period (∼900–1170) than portrayed by previous TR NH reconstructions and by the CMIP5 model ensemble, but with better overall agreement between records for the last 600 years. Future dendroclimatic projects should focus on developing new long records from data-sparse regions such as North America and eastern Eurasia as well as ensuring the measurement of parameters related to latewood density to complement ring-width records which can improve local based calibration substantially

Impact of flu on hospital admissions during 4 flu seasons in Spain, 2000–2004

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Seasonal flu epidemics in the European region cause high numbers of cases and deaths. Flu-associated mortality has been estimated but morbidity studies are necessary to understand the burden of disease in the population. Our objective was to estimate the excess hospital admissions in Spain of diseases associated with influenza during four epidemic influenza periods (2000 – 2004).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Hospital discharge registers containing pneumonia, chronic bronchitis, heart failure and flu from all public hospitals in Spain were reviewed for the years 2000 to 2004. Epidemic periods were defined by data from the Sentinel Surveillance System. Excess hospitalisations were calculated as the difference between the average number of weekly hospitalisations/100,000 in epidemic and non-epidemic periods. Flu epidemics were defined for seasons 2001/2002, 2002/2003, 2003/2004.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A(H3N2) was the dominant circulating serotype in 2001/2002 and 2003/2004. Negligible excess hospitalisations were observed during the 2002/2003 epidemic where A(H1N1) was circulating. During 2000/2001, flu activity remained below threshold levels and therefore no epidemic period was defined. In two epidemic periods studied a delay between the peak of the influenza epidemic and the peak of hospitalisations was observed. During flu epidemics with A(H3N2), excess hospitalisations were higher in men and in persons <5 and >64 years higher than 10 per 100,000. Pneumonia accounted for 70% of all flu associated hospitalisations followed by chronic bronchitis. No excess flu-specific hospitalisations were recorded during all seasons.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Flu epidemics have an impact on hospital morbidity in Spain. Further studies that include other variables, such as temperature and humidity, are necessary and will deepen our understanding of the role of each factor during flu epidemics and their relation with morbidity.</p

Discordant identification of pediatric severe sepsis by research and clinical definitions in the SPROUT international point prevalence study

Introduction: Consensus criteria for pediatric severe sepsis have standardized enrollment for research studies. However, the extent to which critically ill children identified by consensus criteria reflect physician diagnosis of severe sepsis, which underlies external validity for pediatric sepsis research, is not known. We sought to determine the agreement between physician diagnosis and consensus criteria to identify pediatric patients with severe sepsis across a network of international pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Methods: We conducted a point prevalence study involving 128 PICUs in 26 countries across 6 continents. Over the course of 5 study days, 6925 PICU patients &lt;18 years of age were screened, and 706 with severe sepsis defined either by physician diagnosis or on the basis of 2005 International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference consensus criteria were enrolled. The primary endpoint was agreement of pediatric severe sepsis between physician diagnosis and consensus criteria as measured using Cohen's ?. Secondary endpoints included characteristics and clinical outcomes for patients identified using physician diagnosis versus consensus criteria. Results: Of the 706 patients, 301 (42.6 %) met both definitions. The inter-rater agreement (? ± SE) between physician diagnosis and consensus criteria was 0.57 ± 0.02. Of the 438 patients with a physician's diagnosis of severe sepsis, only 69 % (301 of 438) would have been eligible to participate in a clinical trial of pediatric severe sepsis that enrolled patients based on consensus criteria. Patients with physician-diagnosed severe sepsis who did not meet consensus criteria were younger and had lower severity of illness and lower PICU mortality than those meeting consensus criteria or both definitions. After controlling for age, severity of illness, number of comorbid conditions, and treatment in developed versus resource-limited regions, patients identified with severe sepsis by physician diagnosis alone or by consensus criteria alone did not have PICU mortality significantly different from that of patients identified by both physician diagnosis and consensus criteria. Conclusions: Physician diagnosis of pediatric severe sepsis achieved only moderate agreement with consensus criteria, with physicians diagnosing severe sepsis more broadly. Consequently, the results of a research study based on consensus criteria may have limited generalizability to nearly one-third of PICU patients diagnosed with severe sepsis

Multispectral analysis of Northern Hemisphere temperature records over the last five millennia

Aiming to describe spatio-temporal climate variability on decadal-to-centennial time scales and longer, we analyzed a data set of 26 proxy records extending back 1,000–5,000 years; all records chosen were calibrated to yield temperatures. The seven irregularly sampled series in the data set were interpolated to a regular grid by optimized methods and then two advanced spectral methods—namely singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) and the continuous wavelet transform—were applied to individual series to separate significant oscillations from the high noise background. This univariate analysis identified several common periods across many of the 26 proxy records: a millennial trend, as well as oscillations of about 100 and 200 years, and a broad peak in the 40–70-year band. To study common NH oscillations, we then applied Multichannel SSA. Temperature variations on time scales longer than 600 years appear in our analysis as a dominant trend component, which shows climate features consistent with the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Statistically significant NH-wide peaks appear at 330, 250 and 110&nbsp;years, as well as in a broad 50–80-year band. Strong variability centers in several bands are located around the North Atlantic basin and are in phase opposition between Greenland and Western Europe