Standard survey methods for estimating colony losses and explanatory risk factors in Apis mellifera

This chapter addresses survey methodology and questionnaire design for the collection of data pertaining to estimation of honey bee colony loss rates and identification of risk factors for colony loss. Sources of error in surveys are described. Advantages and disadvantages of different random and non-random sampling strategies and different modes of data collection are presented to enable the researcher to make an informed choice. We discuss survey and questionnaire methodology in some detail, for the purpose of raising awareness of issues to be considered during the survey design stage in order to minimise error and bias in the results. Aspects of survey design are illustrated using surveys in Scotland. Part of a standardized questionnaire is given as a further example, developed by the COLOSS working group for Monitoring and Diagnosis. Approaches to data analysis are described, focussing on estimation of loss rates. Dutch monitoring data from 2012 were used for an example of a statistical analysis with the public domain R software. We demonstrate the estimation of the overall proportion of losses and corresponding confidence interval using a quasi-binomial model to account for extra-binomial variation. We also illustrate generalized linear model fitting when incorporating a single risk factor, and derivation of relevant confidence intervals

The analysis of European lacquer : optimization of thermochemolysis temperature of natural resins

In order to optimize chromatographic analysis of European lacquer, thermochemolysis temperature was evaluated for the analysis of natural resins. Five main ingredients of lacquer were studied: sandarac, mastic, colophony, Manila copal and Congo copal. For each, five temperature programs were tested: four fixed temperatures (350, 480, 550, 650 degrees C) and one ultrafast thermal desorption (UFD), in which the temperature rises from 350 to 660 degrees C in 1 min. In total, the integrated signals of 27 molecules, partially characterizing the five resins, were monitored to compare the different methods. A compromise between detection of compounds released at low temperatures and compounds formed at high temperatures was searched. 650 degrees C is too high for both groups, 350 degrees C is best for the first, and 550 degrees C for the second. Fixed temperatures of 480 degrees C or UFD proved to be a consensus in order to detect most marker molecules. UFD was slightly better for the molecules released at low temperatures, while 480 degrees C showed best compounds formed at high temperatures

Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system

Multilevel analysis in CSCL Research

Janssen, J., Erkens, G., Kirschner, P. A., & Kanselaar, G. (2011). Multilevel analysis in CSCL research. In S. Puntambekar, G. Erkens, & C. Hmelo-Silver (Eds.), Analyzing interactions in CSCL: Methods, approaches and issues (pp. 187-205). New York: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-7710-6_9CSCL researchers are often interested in the processes that unfold between learners in online learning environments and the outcomes that stem from these interactions. However, studying collaborative learning processes is not an easy task. Researchers have to make quite a few methodological decisions such as how to study the collaborative process itself (e.g., develop a coding scheme or a questionnaire), on the appropriate unit of analysis (e.g., the individual or the group), and which statistical technique to use (e.g., descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, correlation analysis). Recently, several researchers have turned to multilevel analysis (MLA) to answer their research questions (e.g., Cress, 2008; De Wever, Van Keer, Schellens, & Valcke, 2007; Dewiyanti, Brand-Gruwel, Jochems, & Broers, 2007; Schellens, Van Keer, & Valcke, 2005; Strijbos, Martens, Jochems, & Broers, 2004; Stylianou-Georgiou, Papanastasiou, & Puntambekar, chapter #). However, CSCL studies that apply MLA analysis still remain relatively scarce. Instead, many CSCL researchers continue to use ‘traditional’ statistical techniques (e.g., analysis of variance, regression analysis), although these techniques may not be appropriate for what is being studied. An important aim of this chapter is therefore to explain why MLA is often necessary to correctly answer the questions CSCL researchers address. Furthermore, we wish to highlight the consequences of failing to use MLA when this is called for, using data from our own studies

Knowledge in process? Exploring barriers between epidemiological research and local health policy development

The Redes de Trueque (RT) thrived during the economic crisis of 2001 – 2002 in Argentina and still stand out as one of the largest Complementary Currency System in the world. These local exchange networks reach a large scale during times of severe economic distress, but as large non-state initiatives, they pose a governance problem. Four types of governance systems were structured within the Argentine RT, of varying degrees of sustainability: a) loosely regulated market systems, b) hierarchies, c) associational regional networks, and d) local communities. Based on a four dimensional analytical framework, this paper discusses the rules of governance and sustainability of the governance systems in the RT. It found that some became more sustainable than others in terms of achieving combinations of scale and organisational modes

The Development of Practice Recommendations for Drug-Disease Interactions by Literature Review and Expert Opinion

Background Drug-disease interactions negatively affect the benefit/risk ratio of drugs for specific populations. In these conditions drugs should be avoided, adjusted, or accompanied by extra monitoring. The motivation for many drug-disease interactions in the Summary of Product Characteristics (SmPC) is sometimes insufficiently supported by (accessible) evidence. As a consequence the translation of SmPC to clinical practice may lead to non-specific recommendations. For the translation of this information to the real world, it is necessary to evaluate the available knowledge about drug-disease interactions, and to formulate specific recommendations for prescribers and pharmacists. The aim of this paper is to describe a standardized method how to develop practice recommendations for drug-disease interactions by literature review and expert opinion. Methods The development of recommendations for drug-disease interactions will follow a six-step plan involving a multidisciplinary expert panel (1). The scope of the drug-disease interaction will be specified by defining the disease and by describing relevant effects of this drug-disease interaction. Drugs possibly involved in this drug-disease interaction are selected by checking the official product information, literature, and expert opinion (2). Evidence will be collected from the official product information, guidelines, handbooks, and primary literature (3). Study characteristics and outcomes will be evaluated and presented in standardized reports, including preliminary conclusions on the clinical relevance and practice recommendations (4). The multidisciplinary expert panel will discuss the reports and will either adopt or adjust the conclusions (5). Practice recommendations will be integrated in clinical decision support systems and published (6). The results of the evaluated drug-disease interactions will remain up-to-date by screening new risk information, periodic literature review, and (re)assessments initiated by health care providers. Actionable Recommendations The practice recommendations will result in advices for specific DDSI. The content and considerations of these DDSIs will be published and implemented in all Clinical Decision Support Systems in the Netherlands. Discussion The recommendations result in professional guidance in the context of individual patient care. The professional will be supported in the decision making in concerning pharmacotherapy for the treatment of a medical problem, and the clinical risks of the proposed medication in combination with specific diseases

Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of sqrt(s) = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K_s and Lambda particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scale uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2-5% for central isolated hadrons and 1-3% for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.Comment: 24 pages plus author list (36 pages total), 23 figures, 1 table, submitted to European Physical Journal

Spatial and seasonal variations of aerosols over China from two decades of multi-satellite observations – Part 1: ATSR (1995–2011) and MODIS C6.1 (2000–2017)

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) patterns and interannual and seasonal variations over China are discussed based on the AOD retrieved from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2, 1995–2002), the Advanced ATSR (AATSR, 2002–2012) (together ATSR) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite (2000–2017). The AOD products used were the ATSR Dual View (ADV) v2.31 AOD and the MODIS/Terra Collection 6.1 (C6.1) merged dark target (DT) and deep blue (DB) AOD product. Together these datasets provide an AOD time series for 23 years, from 1995 to 2017. The difference between the AOD values retrieved from ATSR-2 and AATSR is small, as shown by pixel-by-pixel and monthly aggregate comparisons as well as validation results. This allows for the combination of the ATSR-2 and AATSR AOD time series into one dataset without offset correction.ADV and MODIS AOD validation results show similar high correlations with the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD (0.88 and 0.92, respectively), while the corresponding bias is positive for MODIS (0.06) and negative for ADV (−0.07). Validation of the AOD products in similar conditions, when ATSR and MODIS/Terra overpasses are within 90&thinsp;min of each other and when both ADV and MODIS retrieve AOD around AERONET locations, show that ADV performs better than MODIS in autumn, while MODIS performs slightly better in spring and summer. In winter, both ADV and MODIS underestimate the AERONET AOD.Similar AOD patterns are observed by ADV and MODIS in annual and seasonal aggregates as well as in time series. ADV–MODIS difference maps show that MODIS AOD is generally higher than that from ADV. Both ADV and MODIS show similar seasonal AOD behavior. The AOD maxima shift from spring in the south to summer along the eastern coast further north.The agreement between sensors regarding year-to-year AOD changes is quite good. During the period from 1995 to 2006 AOD increased in the southeast (SE) of China. Between 2006 and 2011 AOD did not change much, showing minor minima in 2008–2009. From 2011 onward AOD decreased in the SE of China. Similar patterns exist in year-to-year ADV and MODIS annual AOD tendencies in the overlapping period. However, regional differences between the ATSR and MODIS AODs are quite large. The consistency between ATSR and MODIS with regards to the AOD tendencies in the overlapping period is rather strong in summer, autumn and overall for the yearly average; however, in winter and spring, when there is a difference in coverage between the two instruments, the agreement between ATSR and MODIS is lower.AOD tendencies in China during the 1995–2017 period will be discussed in more detail in Part 2 (a following paper: Sogacheva et al., 2018), where a method to combine AOD time series from ADV and MODIS is introduced, and combined AOD time series are analyzed.</p

Evidence for the h_b(1P) meson in the decay Upsilon(3S) --> pi0 h_b(1P)

Using a sample of 122 million Upsilon(3S) events recorded with the BaBar detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy e+e- collider at SLAC, we search for the $h_b(1P)$ spin-singlet partner of the P-wave chi_{bJ}(1P) states in the sequential decay Upsilon(3S) --> pi0 h_b(1P), h_b(1P) --> gamma eta_b(1S). We observe an excess of events above background in the distribution of the recoil mass against the pi0 at mass 9902 +/- 4(stat.) +/- 2(syst.) MeV/c^2. The width of the observed signal is consistent with experimental resolution, and its significance is 3.1sigma, including systematic uncertainties. We obtain the value (4.3 +/- 1.1(stat.) +/- 0.9(syst.)) x 10^{-4} for the product branching fraction BF(Upsilon(3S)-->pi0 h_b) x BF(h_b-->gamma eta_b).Comment: 8 pages, 4 postscript figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications