The symple choice algorythm for estimating of parametersof network protetion prioroties in analitical hierarchic process

Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues

Gatekeepers to the effects of climate warming? Niche construction restricts plant community changes along a temperature gradient

Organisms that modify the environment (niche constructors) are likely candidates to mediate the effects of climate warming. Here we assess tundra plant community changes along a temperature gradient and how these are modified in the presence of the common allelopathic dwarf shrub Empetrum nigrum and the large herbivore Rangifer tarandus. 2 We developed a structural equation model based on data from a field-based study of 1450 tundra plant communities across Northern Fennoscandia, covering a temperature gradient of 3.5°C, contrasting Rangifer densities, a range of Empetrum abundances in addition to gradients in topography and bedrock. We found temperature to be a significant positive predictor of Empetrum, herbaceous and woody plant abundances. However, the effect of temperature as predictor for herbaceous plant abundance was significantly reduced in communities with Empetrum present. For woody plant abundance Empetrum was a stronger predictor than temperature. In comparison, we found Rangifer density to have marginal or no effect on either herbaceous or woody plant abundance. These findings were not modified by either topography or bedrock. Results from this study indicate that herbaceous plant responses to climate warming are currently reduced in communities where Empetrum is present, whereas the abundance of Empetrum and other woody plants is promoted. Results also indicate that any future Empetrum encroachment is likely to drive tundra communities towards slower process rates and lower biodiversity. As such our results substantiate the importance of understanding the dynamics of niche constructor species and include them in predictive models of climate change

On animal distributions in dynamic landscapes

Article first published online: 5 AUG 2003David Roshier and Julian Rei

Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north

Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues