Real-time data assimilation in urban rainfall-runoff models

Open Access journalCopyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.12th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI2013Real-time control of urban rainfall-runoff systems can help limit flooding, and minimise combined sewerage overflow. To improve the ability of runoff models to inform this control decision, a data assimilation methodology is presented where downstream prediction errors are used to update upstream model states at an earlier time step. The methodology led to improved, ‘corrected’ predictions after model re-propagation to the current time, and improved discharge forecasts. Assimilation performance was sensitive to the update lag time, and the presence of control structures in the model, which affect the ability of assimilation procedures to map observation information to state space.European Commission Seventh Framewor

Application of formal and informal Bayesian methods for water distribution hydraulic model calibration

Copyright © 2014 American Society of Civil EngineersWater distribution system model parameter calibration is an important step to obtain a representative system model, such that it may be applied to understand system operational performance, often in real time. However, few approaches have attempted to quantify uncertainty in calibrated parameters, model predictions, and consider the sensitivity of model predictions to uncertain parameters. A probabilistic Bayesian approach is applied to calibrate and quantify uncertainty in the pipe roughness groups of an Epanet2 hydraulic model of a real-life water distribution network. Within the applied Bayesian framework, the relative performance of formal and informal Bayesian likelihoods in implicitly quantifying parameter and predictive uncertainty is considered. Both approaches quantify posterior parameter uncertainty with similar posterior distributions for parameter values (mean and standard deviation). However, the uncertainty intervals identified with the informal likelihood are too narrow, regardless of the behavioral threshold applied to derive these bounds. In contrast, the formal Bayesian approach produces more realistic 95% prediction intervals based on their statistical coverage of the observations. This results as the error model standard deviation is jointly inferred during calibration, which also helps to avoid potential overconditioning of the posterior parameter distribution. However, posterior diagnostic checks reveal that the prediction intervals are not valid at percentiles other than the 95% interval as the assumptions of normality, residual homoscedasticity, and noncorrelation, often assumed in hydraulic model calibration, do no hold. More robust calibration requires the development of error models better suited to the nature of residual errors found in water distribution system models.European Commission Seventh Framework programm

A global map to aid the identification and screening of critical habitat for marine industries

Marine industries face a number of risks that necessitate careful analysis prior to making decisions on the siting of operations and facilities. An important emerging regulatory framework on environmental sustainability for business operations is the International Finance Corporation’s Performance Standard 6 (IFC PS6). Within PS6, identification of biodiversity significance is articulated through the concept of “Critical Habitat”, a definition developed by the IFC and detailed through criteria aligned with those that support internationally accepted biodiversity designations. No publicly available tools have been developed in either the marine or terrestrial realm to assess the likelihood of sites or operations being located within PS6-defined Critical Habitat. This paper presents a starting point towards filling this gap in the form of a preliminary global map that classifies more than 13 million km2 of marine and coastal areas of importance for biodiversity (protected areas, Key Biodiversity Areas [KBA], sea turtle nesting sites, cold- and warm-water corals, seamounts, seagrass beds, mangroves, saltmarshes, hydrothermal vents and cold seeps) based on their overlap with Critical Habitat criteria, as defined by IFC. In total, 5798×103 km2 (1.6%) of the analysis area (global ocean plus coastal land strip) were classed as Likely Critical Habitat, and 7526×103 km2 (2.1%) as Potential Critical Habitat; the remainder (96.3%) were Unclassified. The latter was primarily due to the paucity of biodiversity data in marine areas beyond national jurisdiction and/or in deep waters, and the comparatively fewer protected areas and KBAs in these regions. Globally, protected areas constituted 65.9% of the combined Likely and Potential Critical Habitat extent, and KBAs 29.3%, not accounting for the overlap between these two features. Relative Critical Habitat extent in Exclusive Economic Zones varied dramatically between countries. This work is likely to be of particular use for industries operating in the marine and coastal realms as an early screening aid prior to in situ Critical Habitat assessment; to financial institutions making investment decisions; and to those wishing to implement good practice policies relevant to biodiversity management. Supplementary material (available online) includes other global datasets considered, documentation and justification of biodiversity feature classification, detail of IFC PS6 criteria/scenarios, and coverage calculations

Non-Markovian dynamics in a spin star system: The failure of thermalization

In most cases, a small system weakly interacting with a thermal bath will finally reach the thermal state with the temperature of the bath. We show that this intuitive picture is not always true by a spin star model where non-Markov effect predominates in the whole dynamical process. The spin star system consists a central spin homogeneously interacting with an ensemble of identical noninteracting spins. We find that the correlation time of the bath is infinite, which implies that the bath has a perfect memory, and that the dynamical evolution of the central spin must be non- Markovian. A direct consequence is that the final state of the central spin is not the thermal state equilibrium with the bath, but a steady state which depends on its initial state.Comment: 8 page

Tectonic controls on post-subduction granite genesis and emplacement : the late Caledonian suite of Britain and Ireland

Rates of magma emplacement commonly vary as a function of tectonic setting. The late Caledonian granites of Britain and Ireland are associated with closure of the Iapetus Ocean and were emplaced into a varying regime of transpression and transtension throughout the Silurian and into the early Devonian. Here we evaluate a new approach for examining how magma volumes vary as a function of tectonic setting. Available radiometric ages from the late Caledonian granites are used to calculate probability density functions (age spectra), with each pluton weighted by outcrop area as a proxy for its volume. These spectra confirm an absence of magmatic activity during Iapetus subduction between c. 455 Ma and 425 Ma and a dominance of post-subduction magmas between c. 425 Ma and 380 Ma. We review possible reasons why, despite the widespread outcrop of the late Caledonian granites, magmatism appears absent during Iapetus subduction. These include shallow angle subduction or extensive erosion and tectonic removal of the arc. In contrast to previous work we find no strong difference in the age or major element chemistry of post-subduction granites across all terranes. We propose a common causal mechanism in which the down-going Iapetus oceanic slab peeled back and detached beneath the suture following final Iapetus closure. The lithospheric mantle was delaminated beneath the suture and for about 100 km back beneath the Avalonian margin. While magma generation is largely a function of gravitationally driven lithosphere delamination, strike-slip dominated kinematics in the overlying continental crust is what modulated granitic magma emplacement. Early Devonian (419–404 Ma) transtension permitted large volumes of granite emplacement, whereas the subsequent Acadian (late Early Devonian, 404–394 Ma) transpression reduced and eventually suppressed magma emplacement

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

The genesis of gold mineralisation hosted by orogenic belts: A lead isotope investigation of Irish gold deposits

Lead isotope analyses have been performed on 109 gold and 23 sulphide samples from 34 Irish gold occurrences, including 27 placers, and used to shed light on the sources of mineralising fluids and metals associated with gold mineralisation hosted by orogenic belts. The Pb isotope ratios of lode and placer gold range from 206Pb/204Pb=17.287-18.679, 207Pb/204Pb=15.382-15.661, and 208Pb/204Pb=37.517-38.635, consistent with the Pb isotopic data on previously reported Irish sulphide mineralisation. There is no evidence that gold mineralisation is associated with distinctive source regions, and it appears to have been derived from similar sources to those responsible for the widespread sulphide mineralisation in Ireland. It is inferred that the principal controls on the Au mineralisation are structural and not related to the distribution of Au in their source rocks. The range of Pb isotope ratios favours the interaction of multiple source reservoirs predominantly during the Caledonian Orogeny (c. 475-380Ma). Underlying basement was the primary control on two key sources of Pb. Gold occurrences located to the south-east of the Iapetus Suture are characterised by Pb compositions that derive predominantly from the Late Proterozoic crustal basement or overlying Lower Palaeozoic sediments, whilst those located north-west of the Iapetus Suture are characterised by less radiogenic Pb signatures derived predominantly from Late Proterozoic or older crustal basement. A third source, relatively enriched in radiogenic Pb, also played a role in the formation of a number of Irish gold occurrences, and may have been associated with syn- to post-orogenic intrusives. Magmatic processes may therefore have played an important role in the formation of some orogenic gold occurrences

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Morfología Fluvial.- Ephemeral Channel Modelling at Historic timescales in Semi-arid Environments

ABSTRACT There is an increasing need to understand how ephemeral channels mediate the movement of water through catchment systems, both to identify the quantity of groundwater and reservoir recharge and to inform flash flood prediction. At historic timescales (101-102 years) it is recognised that this requires an understanding of the interactions between flow, sediment and vegetation which feedback to control morphological change and future flood wave propagation. Reduced-complexity models provide a means to develop such understanding. This paper presents a coupled 1D-2D numerical model that can be applied at the catchment scale to account for transmission losses and floodwave propagation (1D model), but which also simulates local-scale flow patterns that may be applied to simulate geomorphic response to flood inundation (2D model). The initial model evaluation, conducted at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona is presented