Mikro-Wirkung: Dekonstruktion der komplexen Auswirkungsprozesse eines einfachen Mikroversicherungsprodukts in Indonesien

This thesis analyses the social impact of Payung Keluarga, an obligatory enhanced credit life microinsurance product launched by Allianz in Indonesia in 2006. Payung Keluarga automatically insures micro-borrowers who take out microcredits from microfinance institutions. In case of death, the outstanding credit balance is canceled and the beneficiary receives twice the original loan as additional payout. Payung Keluarga was conceived to ameliorate the assumed post-mortem financial crisis of low-asset families. Through qualitative-explorative field research from 2006 until 2008 I investigated if this developmental intention was realized. It is the first impact analysis on microinsurance in Indonesia. In the research process, I took the position of an observing participant. As operational project leader for Allianz in Indonesia I was virtually doing research on my own work. The resulting challenge to research neutrality is primarily mitigated by the sobering to discerning social impact which was eventually revealed. The majority of insured were married female Muslim petty traders in urban and semi-urban areas around Jakarta. Socio-economically these women stand at the upper end of the low-asset stratum. Their husbands were generally the main bread-winners of the family, and it was mostly them who received the insurance payouts. It could therefore be said that Payung Keluarga benefited the main breadwinner instead of insuring him. The study found that norms of a moral economy are still exerting significant clout on the insured. The moral economy aims at providing “subsistence insurance” for all community members through an intricate collective system of balanced exchanges. The corresponding “premium” is a denouncement of self-interested material asset accumulation. Next to structural reasons, it was this moral restriction that saw the businesses of the women stagnate at low and socially inconspicuous levels. Payung Keluarga did not help to overcome the assumed post-mortem financial crisis. In reality, such crisis did not exist since community and family support among low-asset Muslim Indonesians is normally strong enough to largely provide for the bereft family. This support is driven by the perception of death as a collective risk in the light of the moral economy and hinged on principles of balanced reciprocity. For cultural and religious reasons, the beneficiaries used most of the insurance payouts for funeral ceremonies and repayment of informal debt. With the advent of Payung Keluarga familial post-mortem assistance has been reduced. Funeral costs also seem to have been inflated by the product. It has thereby promoted a long-term societal shift from equality-seeking balanced reciprocity towards status-seeking and socially diversifying general reciprocity. In effect, Payung Keluarga has attacked cooperative social cohesion head-on where it is still strongest in a rapidly modernizing Indonesian society. This discerning and unintended impact of Payung Keluarga is hardly offset by a positive increase in financial literacy among the insured. Furthermore, the effect on “peace of mind” on the insured is ambivalent: while most insured stated to feel safer, some declared to feel less secure with their obligatory coverage for fear of interference with divine predetermination. Its overall developmental impact can be literally described as “micro”. Instead of protecting the status-quo of the family, Payung Keluarga has assumed the role of an actor of social change. Not only because it has changed the funeral pattern of the beneficiaries, but also because it promotes a far-reaching conceptual paradigm shift from balanced reciprocity, which forms a core pillar of the insured’s social structure, towards general reciprocity. The thesis hypothesizes that with sufficient insurance coverage provided, the insured will increasingly opt out of the coercively egalitarian “subsistence insurance” system. Such opt out will allow the insured to pursue a more aggressive economic asset accumulation strategy, particularly in combination with micro-credit. For the individual, this can be seen as a “liberating fortune” that would induce more women to grow their businesses to significant sizes. In parallel, it would deal a blow to cooperative social cohesion. I propose to call this the “double fortune / double blow” dilemma of microfinance. Although this thesis is exemplary, some of its findings can be generalized: The impact of microinsurance is highly dependent on cultural, religious and socio-demographic context. Any microinsurance intervention concerned with social impact should be preceded by a thick contextualization going beyond the usual demand assessments. In turn, microinsurance likewise impacts context as an actor of ambivalent social change. The complex influence of context and the role of microinsurance as an actor of social change have so far been hardly discussed in the development discourse

Heteroclinic and Homoclinic Connections Between the Sun-Earth Triangular Points and Quasi-Satellite Orbits for Solar Observations

Investigation of new orbit geometries exhibits a very attractive behavior for a spacecraft to monitor space weather coming from the Sun. Several orbit transfer mechanisms are analyzed as potential alternatives to monitor solar activity such as a sub-solar orbit or quasi-satellite orbit and short and long heteroclinic and homoclinic connections between the triangular points L4 and L5 and the collinear point L3 of the CRTBP (circular restricted three-body problem) in the Sun-Earth system. These trajectories could serve as channels through where material can be transported from L5 to L3 by performing small maneuvers at the departure of the Trojan orbit. The size of these maneuvers at L5 is between 299 m/s and 730 m/s depending on the transfer time of the trajectory and does not need any deterministic maneuvers at L3. Our results suggest that material may also be transported from the Trojan orbits to quasi-satellite orbits or even displaced quasi-satellite orbits

Nutritional status of Lusitano broodmares on extensive feeding systems: body condition, live weight and metabolic indicators

Articles in International JournalsThe present research aimed to evaluate the effects of foaling season and feeding management in extensive systems on the nutritional status of Lusitano broodmares throughout the gestation/lactation cycle, by assessment of body condition (BC), body weight (BW), and some blood metabolic indicators. Four groups of Lusitano broodmares (A, B, C, D) were monitored during four years, in a total of 119 gestation/lactation cycles. All mares were kept on pasture, and A and B mares were daily supplemented. Monthly, mares were weighed and BC evaluated. Suckling foals from these mares were also monitored for BW and withers height. Glucose, non-esterified fatty acids, urea and albumin concentrations were determined in blood. BW changes were influenced by reproductive stage and foaling season (P<0.001), reflecting also pasture availability. Changes on BC were observed (P<0.05), although with small amplitudes within each group. Higher scores were reached at the end of spring, decreasing 0.25 point until late summer. Early foaling had also a marked effect, hindering the recovery of BC along the cycle. Glucose values decreased from late gestation to early lactation (P<0.05) and lower levels were recorded during the summer months. Uremia was mainly influenced by the reproductive stage (P<0.05). Under nutrition was not detected. Foals born in February-March had higher average daily gain than those born in April-May (P<0.05), probably reflecting differences in milk production of the mares. BC and BW changes and, particularly, blood indicators showed an overall balanced nutritional status, reflecting an adaptation to feed availability and climate.Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technolog

Comparison of two methods to identify live benthic foraminifera : a test between Rose Bengal and CellTracker Green with implications for stable isotope paleoreconstructions

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography, 21 (2006): PA4210, doi:10.1029/2006PA001290.The conventional method to distinguish live from dead benthic foraminifers uses Rose Bengal, a stain that reacts with both live and dead cytoplasm. CellTracker Green CMFDA is a fluorogenic probe causing live cells to fluoresce after proper incubation. To determine the more accurate viability method, we conducted a direct comparison of Rose Bengal staining with CellTracker Green labeling. Eight multicore tops were analyzed from Florida Margin (SE United States; 248-751 m water depths), near Great Bahama Bank (259-766 m), and off the Carolinas (SE United States; 220 m, 920 m). On average, less than half the Rose Bengal-stained foraminifera were actually living when collected. Thus, while Rose Bengal can significantly overestimate abundance, combined analyses of CellTracker Green and Rose Bengal can provide insights on population dynamics and effects of episodic events. Initial stable isotope analyses indicate that the CellTracker Green method does not significantly affect these important paleoceanographic proxies.Funding for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation Research Experience for Undergraduates Program (grant #OCE-0139423; PI, D. McCorkle, WHOI) and NSF grants OCE-9911654 and OCE-0351029

The KELT Follow-Up Network And Transit False-Positive Catalog: Pre-Vetted False Positives For TESS

The Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT) project has been conducting a photometric survey of transiting planets orbiting bright stars for over 10 years. The KELT images have a pixel scale of ~23\u27\u27 pixel⁻¹—very similar to that of NASA\u27s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)—as well as a large point-spread function, and the KELT reduction pipeline uses a weighted photometric aperture with radius 3\u27. At this angular scale, multiple stars are typically blended in the photometric apertures. In order to identify false positives and confirm transiting exoplanets, we have assembled a follow-up network (KELT-FUN) to conduct imaging with spatial resolution, cadence, and photometric precision higher than the KELT telescopes, as well as spectroscopic observations of the candidate host stars. The KELT-FUN team has followed-up over 1600 planet candidates since 2011, resulting in more than 20 planet discoveries. Excluding ~450 false alarms of non-astrophysical origin (i.e., instrumental noise or systematics), we present an all-sky catalog of the 1128 bright stars (6 \u3c V \u3c 13) that show transit-like features in the KELT light curves, but which were subsequently determined to be astrophysical false positives (FPs) after photometric and/or spectroscopic follow-up observations. The KELT-FUN team continues to pursue KELT and other planet candidates and will eventually follow up certain classes of TESS candidates. The KELT FP catalog will help minimize the duplication of follow-up observations by current and future transit surveys such as TESS

Increasing illness severity in very low birth weight infants over a 9-year period

BACKGROUND: Recent reports have documented a leveling-off of survival rates in preterm infants through the 1990's. The objective of this study was to determine temporal changes in illness severity in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants in relationship to the outcomes of death and/or severe IVH. METHODS: Cohort study of 1414 VLBW infants cared for in a single level III neonatal intensive care unit in Delaware from 1993–2002. Infants were divided into consecutive 3-year cohorts. Illness severity was measured by two objective methods: the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology (SNAP), based on data from the 1(st )day of life, and total thyroxine (T(4)), measured on the 5(th )day of life. Death before hospital discharge and severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) were investigated in the study sample in relation to illness severity. The fetal death rate was also investigated. Statistical analyses included both univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Illness severity, as measured by SNAP and T(4, )increased steadily over the 9-year study period with an associated increase in severe IVH and the combined outcome of death and/or severe IVH. During the final 3 years of the study, the observed increase in illness severity accounted for 86% (95% CI 57–116%) of the variability in the increase in death and/or severe IVH. The fetal death rate dropped from 7.8/1000 (1993–1996) to 5.3/1000 (1999–2002, p = .01) over the course of the study. CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate a progressive increase in illness in VLBW infants over time, associated with an increase in death and/or severe IVH. We speculate that the observed decrease in fetal death, and the increase in neonatal illness, mortality and/or severe IVH over time represent a shift of severely compromised patients that now survive the fetal time period and are presented for care in the neonatal unit

Selecting short-statured children needing growth hormone testing: Derivation and validation of a clinical decision rule

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Numerous short-statured children are evaluated for growth hormone (GH) deficiency (GHD). In most patients, GH provocative tests are normal and are thus in retrospect unnecessary.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective cohort study was conducted to identify predictors of growth hormone (GH) deficiency (GHD) in children seen for short stature, and to construct a very sensitive and fairly specific predictive tool to avoid unnecessary GH provocative tests. GHD was defined by the presence of 2 GH concentration peaks < 10 ng/ml. Certain GHD was defined as GHD and viewing pituitary stalk interruption syndrome on magnetic resonance imaging. Independent predictors were identified with uni- and multi-variate analyses and then combined in a decision rule that was validated in another population.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The initial study included 167 patients, 36 (22%) of whom had GHD, including 5 (3%) with certain GHD. Independent predictors of GHD were: growth rate < -1 DS (adjusted odds ratio: 3.2; 95% confidence interval [1.3–7.9]), IGF-I concentration < -2 DS (2.8 [1.1–7.3]) and BMI z-score ≥ 0 (2.8 [1.2–6.5]). A clinical decision rule suggesting that patients be tested only if they had a growth rate < -1 DS and a IGF-I concentration < -2 DS achieved 100% sensitivity [48–100] for certain GHD and 63% [47–79] for GHD, and a specificity of 68% [60–76]. Applying this rule to the validation population (n = 40, including 13 patients with certain GHD), the sensitivity for certain GHD was 92% [76–100] and the specificity 70% [53–88].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We have derived and performed an internal validation of a highly sensitive decision rule that could safely help to avoid more than 2/3 of the unnecessary GH tests. External validation of this rule is needed before any application.</p

X-ray emission from the Sombrero galaxy: discrete sources

We present a study of discrete X-ray sources in and around the bulge-dominated, massive Sa galaxy, Sombrero (M104), based on new and archival Chandra observations with a total exposure of ~200 ks. With a detection limit of L_X = 1E37 erg/s and a field of view covering a galactocentric radius of ~30 kpc (11.5 arcminute), 383 sources are detected. Cross-correlation with Spitler et al.'s catalogue of Sombrero globular clusters (GCs) identified from HST/ACS observations reveals 41 X-rays sources in GCs, presumably low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). We quantify the differential luminosity functions (LFs) for both the detected GC and field LMXBs, whose power-low indices (~1.1 for the GC-LF and ~1.6 for field-LF) are consistent with previous studies for elliptical galaxies. With precise sky positions of the GCs without a detected X-ray source, we further quantify, through a fluctuation analysis, the GC LF at fainter luminosities down to 1E35 erg/s. The derived index rules out a faint-end slope flatter than 1.1 at a 2 sigma significance, contrary to recent findings in several elliptical galaxies and the bulge of M31. On the other hand, the 2-6 keV unresolved emission places a tight constraint on the field LF, implying a flattened index of ~1.0 below 1E37 erg/s. We also detect 101 sources in the halo of Sombrero. The presence of these sources cannot be interpreted as galactic LMXBs whose spatial distribution empirically follows the starlight. Their number is also higher than the expected number of cosmic AGNs (52+/-11 [1 sigma]) whose surface density is constrained by deep X-ray surveys. We suggest that either the cosmic X-ray background is unusually high in the direction of Sombrero, or a distinct population of X-ray sources is present in the halo of Sombrero.Comment: 11 figures, 5 tables, ApJ in pres

Search for New Physics with Jets and Missing Transverse Momentum in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

A search for new physics is presented based on an event signature of at least three jets accompanied by large missing transverse momentum, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36 inverse picobarns collected in proton--proton collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. No excess of events is observed above the expected standard model backgrounds, which are all estimated from the data. Exclusion limits are presented for the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model. Cross section limits are also presented using simplified models with new particles decaying to an undetected particle and one or two jets