Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Gravidez na adolescência e características socioeconômicas dos municípios do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil: análise espacial Teenage pregnancy rates and socioeconomic characteristics of municipalities in São Paulo State, Southeast Brazil: a spatial analysis

A gravidez na adolescência é um problema de saúde pública comum em todo o mundo. O objetivo deste estudo ecológico é estudar o padrão espacial da associação entre os percentuais de gravidez na adolescência e características socioeconômicas dos municípios do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Para isso, foi utilizado um modelo bayesiano com uma distribuição espacial que segue uma estrutura condicional autorregressiva (CAR), baseado em algoritmos Monte Carlo em cadeias de Markov (MCMC). Foram usados dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos (SINASC) e do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Verificou-se que a ocorrência de gravidezes precoces apresentou-se maior nos municípios de menor produto interno bruto (PIB) per capita, com maior incidência de pobreza, de menor tamanho populacional, menor índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH) e maior percentual de indivíduos com índice paulista de vulnerabilidade social (IPVS) igual a 5 ou 6, ou seja, mais vulneráveis. O estudo demonstra uma estreita associação entre gravidez na adolescência e indicadores econômicos e sociais.<br>Teenage pregnancy is a common public health problem worldwide. The objective of this ecological study was to investigate the spatial association between teenage pregnancy rates and socioeconomic characteristics of municipalities in São Paulo State, Southeast Brazil. We used a Bayesian model with a spatial distribution following a conditional autoregressive (CAR) form based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used data from the Live Birth Information System (SINASC) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Early pregnancy was more frequent in municipalities with lower per capital gross domestic product (GDP), higher poverty rate, smaller population, lower human development index (HDI), and a higher percentage of individuals with State social vulnerability index of 5 or 6 (more vulnerable). The study demonstrates a significant association between teenage pregnancy and socioeconomic indicators

Criopreservação de ovócitos de bovinos imaturos desnudados ou não, utilizando o etilenoglicol pelo método da vitrificação Cryopreservation of bovines immature oocytes desnudes or not, by the ethylene glycol vitrification method

Objetivou-se avaliar os efeitos da vitrificação em ovócitos de bovinos após o cultivo in vitro, utilizando o etilenoglicol como crioprotetor. Ovócitos obtidos de ovários de vacas abatidas em matadouro foram distribuídos aleatoriamente em três tratamentos. Tratamento 0 (testemunha): ovócitos não-desnudados e não-congelados. Tratamento 1: vitrificação de ovócitos imaturos não desnudados, desidratados previamente por cinco minutos em três soluções contendo 20, 20 e 40% de etilenoglicol, acrescidas de 0,3 mol L-1 de trehalose e 20% de PVP, em meio de Talp Hepes. Tratamento 2: vitrificação de ovócitos imaturos desnudados, conforme o Tratamento 1. Após o descongelamento (imersão em banho-maria a 30ºC por 20 segundos), os ovócitos foram reidratados gradativamente, mantendo-os por 6 minutos em cada uma das soluções a seguir, sucessivamente: meio Talp Hepes com 20% de etilenoglicol + 0,3 mol L-1 de trehalose + 10% de PVP e meio Talp Hepes sem etilenoglicol, trehalose e PVP, onde foram lavados três vezes. Posteriormente, os ovócitos foram cultivados a 38,5ºC, com 95% de umidade e atmosfera de 5% de CO2 por 24 horas. Após o cultivo, os ovócitos foram fecundados e os embriões cultivados in vitro por sete dias. Foi encontrada uma taxa de maturação nuclear de 81 (68/84), 19 (7/36) e 0% (0/31), nos Tratamentos 0, 1 e 2, respectivamente. As taxas de clivagem e de desenvolvimento embrionário foram de 56,4 (102/181) e 54,9% (56/102), 1,7 (1/60) e 0,0% (1/60), 0,0 (0/71) e 0,0% (0/71), nos Tratamentos 0, 1 e 2, respectivamente. Esses resultados indicam que o procedimento de vitrificação, segundo os protocolos utilizados, não é indicado para a criopreservação de ovócitos de bovinos.<br>The objective was to evaluate the effects of vitrification of immature bovine oocytes after in vitro culture, by the use of cryoprotectors ethylene glycol. Oocytes from cows ovaries from slaughters houses were randomly alocated into three treatments. Treatment 0 (control): frozen-thawed undesnude oocytes; treatment 1, immature vitrificated undesnude oocytes dehydrated for 5 minutes in each of the following solutions of 20, 20 and 40% of ethylene glycol, respectively, associated to 0.3 Mol l-1 of trehalose and 20% of PVP, in media Talp Hepes, and, treatment 2, the same as treatment 1, but desnudes oocytes. After frozen-thawed of the oocytes (imersion in water bath at 30ºC for 20 seconds), the oocytes were gradually rehydrated, in the following sequence of solutions: media Talp Hepes with 20% of ethylene glycol + 0.3 Mol l-1 of trehalose + 10% of PVP and media Talp Hepes without ethylene glycol, trehalose and PVP, were washed three times. Ultimately, the oocytes were cultured at 38.5ºC, with 95% umidity and atmosphere of 5% of CO2 for 24 hours. After culture, the oocytes were fertilized and the embryos cultured in vitro for seven days. The nuclear maturation were 81 (68/84), 19 (7/36) and 0% (0/31), for treatments 0, 1 and 2, respectively. The cleavage and development rates were: 56.4(102/181) and 54,9% (56/102), 1,7. (1/60) and 0,0% (1/60), 0,0 (0/71) and 0,0% (0/71), for the treatments 1, 2 e 3, respectively. These results show that the vitrification procedures, by the used protocols, are not indicated for bovine oocytes cryopreservation