Validation of two age dependent D-dimer cut-off values for exclusion of deep vein thrombosis in suspected elderly patients in primary care: retrospective, cross sectional, diagnostic analysis

Objective To determine whether the use of age adapted D-dimer cut-off values can be translated to primary care patients who are suspected of deep vein thrombosis

Sex- and age specific association of new-onset atrial fibrillation with in-hospital mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a systemic disease with cardiovascular involvement, including cardiac arrhythmias. Notably, new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) during hospitalisation in COVID-19 patients has been associated with increased mortality. However, how this risk is impacted by age and sex is still poorly understood. METHODS: For this multicentre cohort study, we extracted demographics, medical history, occurrence of electrical disorders and in-hospital mortality from the large international patient registry CAPACITY-COVID. For each electrical disorder, prevalence during hospitalisation was calculated. Subsequently, we analysed the incremental prognostic effect of developing AF/AFL on in-hospital mortality, using multivariable logistic regression analyses, stratified for sex and age. RESULTS: In total, 5782 patients (64% male; median age 67) were included. Of all patients 11.0% (95% CI 10.2–11.8) experienced AF and 1.6% (95% CI 1.3–1.9) experienced AFL during hospitalisation. Ventricular arrhythmias were rare (<0.8% (95% CI 0.6–1.0)) and a conduction disorder was observed in 6.3% (95% CI 5.7–7.0). An event of AF/AFL appeared to occur more often in patients with pre-existing heart failure. After multivariable adjustment for age and sex, new-onset AF/AFL was significantly associated with a poorer prognosis, exemplified by a two- to three-fold increased risk of in-hospital mortality in males aged 60–72 years, whereas this effect was largely attenuated in older male patients and not observed in female patients. CONCLUSION: In this large COVID-19 cohort, new-onset AF/AFL was associated with increased in-hospital mortality, yet this increased risk was restricted to males aged 60–72 years

Integrated care in patients with atrial fibrillation- a predictive heterogeneous treatment effect analysis of the ALL-IN trial

Introduction:Integrated care is effective in reducing all-cause mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in primary care, though time and resource intensive. The aim of the current study was to assess whether integrated care should be directed at all AF patients equally. Methods:The ALL-IN trial (n = 1,240 patients, median age 77 years) was a cluster-randomized trial in which primary care practices were randomized to provide integrated care or usual care to AF patients aged 65 years and older. Integrated care comprised of (i) anticoagulation monitoring, (ii) quarterly checkups and (iii) easy-access consultation with cardiologists. For the current analysis, cox proportional hazard analysis with all clinical variables from the CHA2DS2-VASc score was used to predict all-cause mortality in the ALL-IN trial. Subsequently, the hazard ratio and absolute risk reduction were plotted as a function of this predicted mortality risk to explore treatment heterogeneity. Results:Under usual care, after a median of 2 years follow-up the absolute risk of all-cause mortality in the highest-risk quarter was 31.0%, compared to 4.6% in the lowest-risk quarter. On the relative scale, there was no evidence of treatment heterogeneity (p for interaction = 0.90). However, there was substantial treatment heterogeneity on the absolute scale: risk reduction in the lowest risk- quarter of risk 3.3% (95% CI -0.4% - 7.0) compared to 12.0% (95% CI 2.7% - 22.0) in the highest risk quarter. Conclusion:While the relative degree of benefit from integrated AF care is similar in all patients, patients with a high all-cause mortality risk have a greater benefit on an absolute scale and should therefore be prioritized when implementing integrated care.</p

Safety of off-label dose reduction of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation

Aim: To investigate the effects of off-label non-vitamin K oral anticoagulant (NOAC) dose reduction compared with on-label standard dosing in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients in routine care. Methods: Population-based cohort study using data from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink, comparing adults with non-valvular AF receiving an off-label reduced NOAC dose to patients receiving an on-label standard dose. Outcomes were ischaemic stroke, major/non-major bleeding and mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting and inverse probability of censoring weighting on the propensity score were applied to adjust for confounding and informative censoring. Results: Off-label dose reduction occurred in 2466 patients (8.0%), compared with 18 108 (58.5%) on-label standard-dose users. Median age was 80 years (interquartile range [IQR] 73.0-86.0) versus 72 years (IQR 66-78), respectively. Incidence rates were higher in the off-label dose reduction group compared to the on-label standard dose group, for ischaemic stroke (0.94 vs 0.70 per 100 person years), major bleeding (1.48 vs 0.83), non-major bleeding (6.78 vs 6.16) and mortality (10.12 vs 3.72). Adjusted analyses resulted in a hazard ratio of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-1.60) for ischaemic stroke, 0.88 (95% CI 0.57-1.35) for major bleeding, 0.81 (95% CI 0.67-0.98) for non-major bleeding and 1.34 (95% CI 1.12-1.61) for mortality. Conclusion: In this large population-based study, the hazards for ischaemic stroke and major bleeding were low, and similar in AF patients receiving an off-label reduced NOAC dose compared with on-label standard dose users, while non-major bleeding risk appeared to be lower and mortality risk higher. Caution towards prescribing an off-label reduced NOAC dose is therefore required

Integrated management of atrial fibrillation in primary care:results of the ALL-IN cluster randomized trial

Aims To evaluate whether integrated care for atrial. fibrillation (AF) can be safely orchestrated in primary care. Methods and results The ALL-IN trial was a cluster randomized, open-label, pragmatic non-inferiority trial performed in primary care practices in the Netherlands. We randomized 26 practices: 15 to the integrated care intervention and 11 to usual care. The integrated care intervention consisted of (i) quarterly AF check-ups by trained nurses in primary care, also focusing on possibly interfering comorbidities, (ii) monitoring of anticoagulation therapy in primary care, and finally (iii) easy-access availability of consultations from cardiologists and anticoagulation clinics. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality during 2 years of follow-up. In the intervention arm, 527 out of 941 eligible AF patients aged >65 years provided informed consent to undergo the intervention. These 527 patients were compared with 713 AF patients in the control arm receiving usual care. Median age was 77 (interquartile range 72-83) years. The all-cause mortality rate was 3.5 per 100 patient-years in the intervention arm vs. 6.7 per 100 patient-years in the control arm [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.55; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37-0.82]. For non cardiovascular mortality, the adjusted HR was 0.47 (95% CI 0.27-0.82). For other adverse events, no statistically significant differences were observed. Conclusion In this cluster randomized trial, integrated care for elderly AF patients in primary care showed a 45% reduction in all-cause mortality when compared with usual care

Search Filters for Finding Prognostic and Diagnostic Prediction Studies in Medline to Enhance Systematic Reviews

Background: The interest in prognostic reviews is increasing, but to properly review existing evidence an accurate search filer for finding prediction research is needed. The aim of this paper was to validate and update two previously introduced search filters for finding prediction research in Medline: the Ingui filter and the Haynes Broad filter. Methodology/Principal Findings: Based on a hand search of 6 general journals in 2008 we constructed two sets of papers. Set 1 consisted of prediction research papers (n = 71), and set 2 consisted of the remaining papers (n = 1133). Both search filters were validated in two ways, using diagnostic accuracy measures as performance measures. First, we compared studies in set 1 (reference) with studies retrieved by the search strategies as applied in Medline. Second, we compared studies from 4 published systematic reviews (reference) with studies retrieved by the search filter as applied in Medline. Next -using word frequency methods - we constructed an additional search string for finding prediction research. Both search filters were good in identifying clinical prediction models: sensitivity ranged from 0.94 to 1.0 using our hand search as reference, and 0.78 to 0.89 using the systematic reviews as reference. This latter performance measure even increased to around 0.95 (range 0.90 to 0.97) when either search filter was combined with the additional string that we developed. Retrieval rate of explorative prediction research was poor, both using our hand search or our systematic review as reference, and even combined with our additional search string: sensitivity ranged from 0.44 to 0.85. Conclusions/Significance: Explorative prediction research is difficult to find in Medline, using any of the currently available search filters. Yet, application of either the Ingui filter or the Haynes broad filter results in a very low number missed clinical prediction model studie

2019 ESC Guidelines for the diagnosis and management of acute pulmonary embolism developed in collaboration with the European Respiratory Society (ERS)

Peer reviewe

Design and rationale of DUTCH-AF:a prospective nationwide registry programme and observational study on long-term oral antithrombotic treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation

Introduction Anticoagulation therapy is pivotal in the management of stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF). Prospective registries, containing longitudinal data are lacking with detailed information on anticoagulant therapy, treatment adherence and AF-related adverse events in practice-based patient cohorts, in particular for non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOAC). With the creation of DUTCH-AF, a nationwide longitudinal AF registry, we aim to provide clinical data and answer questions on the (anticoagulant) management over time and of the clinical course of patients with newly diagnosed AF in routine clinical care. Within DUTCH-AF, our current aim is to assess the effect of non-adherence and non-persistence of anticoagulation therapy on clinical adverse events (eg, bleeding and stroke), to determine predictors for such inadequate anticoagulant treatment, and to validate and refine bleeding prediction models. With DUTCH-AF, we provide the basis for a continuing nationwide AF registry, which will facilitate subsequent research, including future registry-based clinical trials. Methods and analysis The DUTCH-AF registry is a nationwide, prospective registry of patients with newly diagnosed 'non-valvular' AF. Patients will be enrolled from primary, secondary and tertiary care practices across the Netherlands. A target of 6000 patients for this initial cohort will be followed for at least 2 years. Data on thromboembolic and bleeding events, changes in antithrombotic therapy and hospital admissions will be registered. Pharmacy-dispensing data will be obtained to calculate parameters of adherence and persistence to anticoagulant treatment, which will be linked to AF-related outcomes such as ischaemic stroke and major bleeding. In a subset of patients, anticoagulation adherence and beliefs about drugs will be assessed by questionnaire. Ethics and dissemination This study protocol was approved as exempt for formal review according to Dutch law by the Medical Ethics Committee of the Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands. Results will be disseminated by publications in peer-reviewed journals and presentations at scientific congresses

Prediction of second neurological attack in patients with clinically isolated syndrome using support vector machines

The aim of this study is to predict the conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to clinically definite multiple sclerosis using support vector machines. The two groups of converters and non-converters are classified using features that were calculated from baseline data of 73 patients. The data consists of standard magnetic resonance images, binary lesion masks, and clinical and demographic information. 15 features were calculated and all combinations of them were iteratively tested for their predictive capacity using polynomial kernels and radial basis functions with leave-one-out cross-validation. The accuracy of this prediction is up to 86.4% with a sensitivity and specificity in the same range indicating that this is a feasible approach for the prediction of a second clinical attack in patients with clinically isolated syndromes, and that the chosen features are appropriate. The two features gender and location of onset lesions have been used in all feature combinations leading to a high accuracy suggesting that they are highly predictive. However, it is necessary to add supporting features to maximise the accuracy. © 2013 IEEE