Mejora del proceso de abastecimiento del taller de mecánica automotriz autoservicios Untiveros S. A. C.

The present research work carries out a study to improve supply process of auto-parts in Autoservicios Untiveros SAC’s Auto Repair Centre based on Industrial Engineer’s techniques like reorder point, business process reengineering and simulation process to improve problems related stock shortage. It was also proposed alliance between American company called Mighty to supply auto-parts to preventive maintenance. The issue mainly is no count with suitable purchase process for auto parts to preventive maintenance, it causes break of stock it reduces effectiveness and efficiency level. The research techniques were observation (visits to Autoservicios Untiveros, historical data recollection), and general manager interview. The results have been modeling from current scene that does not count with safety stock policy. With Arena software a simulation in stable state was carried out with simulation duration or replication length of one year and warm up period of one month to both scenarios and the result was a drop of 30% stock shortage regarding improvement. This project focus on improves purchase process, it is commonly present breakdown it relies on stock availability, it represents loss of time and money finding out auto parts considering that the company don’t have replenishment inventory policy. Currently the purchase policies are that we buy when we need (just in time) and they have a small stock of some auto parts. The last chapter called economic and financial evaluation of solution carried out a variation economic and financial in relation pre-improvement and pro-improvement. The NPV financial obtained was S/28 310, a IRR obtained was 17%, a cost-benefit ratio 1,24, and payback period 4 years 4 months 10 days. The NPV was calculated to 5 years with cost of equity 25,38%. The cost of equity was calculated using Cappital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).El presente trabajo de investigación hace un estudio de mejora de procesos en el área de abastecimiento de repuestos en un taller de mecánica automotriz Autoservicios Untiveros basado en técnicas de ingeniería industrial como punto de reorden, rediseño de procesos y simulación de procesos para mejorar los problemas relacionados a la rotura de stock. Además, se propuso una alianza con la empresa estadounidense Mighty para el abastecimiento de repuestos del mantenimiento preventivo. La problemática es que no se cuenta con un proceso de compras idóneo para los repuestos del mantenimiento preventivo lo cual ocasiona ruptura de stock lo cual no solo afecta el nivel de eficiencia, sino también el nivel de eficacia. Las técnicas de investigación fueron la observación (visitas a Autoservicios Untiveros, recolección de datos históricos) y las entrevistas al gerente general. Los resultados fueron modelados a partir del escenario actual que no cuenta con una política de stock de seguridad. Con el programa de simulación Arena se realizó una simulación de estado estable con una duración de la simulación o replication length o longitud de réplica de doce meses y un tiempo o periodo de calentamiento o warm-up period de un mes para ambos escenarios, obteniendo una disminución de 30% de rotura de stock con respecto a la mejora. El trabajo se centra en mejorar el proceso de compras, que al no tener metodología de trabajo ocasiona que rotura de stock del inventario, esto ocasiona que se pierda tiempo y dinero consiguiendo repuestos debido a que no se cuenta con una política de reposición de inventario. Actualmente se compra solo cuando se requiere y se tiene un inventario pequeño de algunos repuestos. En el último capítulo de evaluación económica financiera de la solución se realizó una variación económica y financiera respecto al antes y después de la mejora. Se obtuvo un VAN financiero de S/28 310, un TIR financiero de 17%, una relación beneficio- costo 1,24 y un periodo de recuperación 4 años 4 meses y 10 días. El VAN fue calculado a cinco años con un COK de 25,38%. El COK fue calculado a través del Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

Representatividad de mamíferos amenazados en el Sistema Departamental de Áreas Protegidas (SIDAP) del Quindío, Colombia

The main objective of protected areas (PA) is to maintain representative samples of biodiversity. Since biodiversity as a whole is impossible to conserve, threatened species are usually used as substitutes. Under this premise ‚the purpose of this work was to evaluate the representativeness of threatened non-flying mammals in the departmental system of protected areas (SIDAP) of Quindío‚ as well as to identify important areas for their conservation. Records of Leopardus tigrinus ‚Tapirus pinchaque‚ Pudu mephistophiles‚ reTremarctos ornatus ‚Aotus lemurinus‚ Dinomys branickii and Lontra longicaudis were collected and their potential geographic distribution was estimated. The potential distribution of threatened mammals was well represented in SIDAP Quindío (between 48% and 100%) except for L. longicaudis with 15‚42% of its distribution included in PAs ‚which coincides with the low representativeness of the lowlands in the system. As for the eastern and northeastern part of the department, on-site conservation opportunities are barely apparent ‚because the largest area corresponds to the Regional Integrated Management Districts (DRMI) in the municipalities of Salento and Genoa‚ where the management categories are flexible so an adjustment of its category would be suggested. The need to strengthen SIDAP to ensure the conservation of threatened mammal species and increase the representation of ecosystems in this area is evident. In conclusion ‚the declaration of PA in low-lying areas of the department is recommended‚ taking into account the socioeconomic context in the assignment of the conservation and management categories of PAs. On the other hand, in the DRMI of the Quindío river basin and the high Andean moors and forests of the municipality of Genoa, the re-categorization of some areas by more stringent schemes could be considered, especially on state lands with areas of natural coverage.El objetivo principal de las áreas protegidas (AP) es mantener muestras representativas de la biodiversidad. Dado que la biodiversidad en su totalidad es imposible de conservar, usualmente se utilizan especies amenazadas como sustitutas. Bajo esta premisa‚ el propósito del presente trabajo fue evaluarla representatividad de los mamíferos no voladores amenazados en el sistema departamental de áreas protegidas (SIDAP) del Quindío‚ así como identificar áreas importantes para su conservación. Se recopilaron registros de Leopardus tigrinus‚ Tapirus pinchaque‚ Pudu mephistophiles‚Tremarctos ornatus‚ Aotus lemurinus‚ Dinomys branickii y Lontra longicaudis y se estimó su distribución geográfica potencial. La distribución potencial de los mamíferos amenazados estuvo bien representado en el SIDAP Quindío (entre 48% y 100%) excepto para L. longicaudis con el 15‚42%  de su distribución incluida en APs‚ que coincide con la poca representatividad de las tierras bajas en el sistema. En cuanto a la zona oriental y nororiental del departamento las oportunidades de conservación in situ son apenas aparentes‚ porque la mayor área corresponde a los Distritos Regional de Manejo Integrado (DRMI) en los municipios de Salento y Génova‚ donde las categorías de manejo son flexibles por lo que se sugeriría un ajuste de su categoría. Se evidencia la necesidad de fortalecer el SIDAP para procurar la conservación de las especies de mamíferos amenazados y aumentar la representación de los ecosistemas de esta zona. En conclusión‚ se recomienda la declaración de AP en zonas bajas del departamento‚ teniendo en cuenta el contexto socioeconómico en la asignación de las categorías de conservación y manejo de las AP. Por su parte, en los DRMI de la cuenca del río Quindío y de los páramos y bosques altoandinos del municipio de Génova, podría considerarse la recategorización de algunas áreas por esquemas más estrictos, especialmente en tierras estatales con áreas decobertura natural

Improving COVID-19 vaccine uptake: a message co-design process for a national mHealth intervention in Colombia

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccination is a global priority. Latin American countries have some of the highest COVID-19 death rates worldwide with vaccination hampered by a variety of reasons, including mis- and disinformation, vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine supply constraints. Addressing vaccine hesitancy through effective messages has been found to help increase vaccine uptake. Participatory processes could be used to co-design health messages for this purpose. OBJECTIVE: This article describes the methodology used to co-design evidence-based audio messages to be deployed in a cohort of individuals through an interactive voice response (IVR) mobile phone survey intervention, aimed towards increasing vaccination uptake in an adult population in Colombia. METHODS: Participants of the COVID-19 vaccination message co-design process included a sample of the general population of the country, representatives of the funder organisation, and research team members. The co-design process consisted of four phases: (1) formative quantitative and qualitative research, (2) message drafting based on the results of the formative research, (3) message content evaluation, and (4) evaluation of the voices to deliver the audio messages; and was informed by reflexive meetings. RESULTS: Three categories of evidence-based audio messages were co-designed, each corresponding to an arm of the mHealth intervention: (1) factual messages, (2) narrative messages, and (3) mixed messages. An additional fourth arm with no message was proposed for control. The iterative co-design process ended with a total of 14 audio messages recorded to be deployed via the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Co-developing health messages in response to health emergencies is possible. Adopting more context-relevant, participatory, people-centred, and reflexive multidisciplinary approaches could help develop solutions that are more responsive to the needs of populations and public health priorities. Investing resources in message co-design is deemed to have a greater potential for influencing behaviours and improving health outcomes

The Association of Depressive Symptoms with Inflammatory Factors and Adipokines in Middle-Aged and Older Chinese

Studies in Western populations find that depression is associated with inflammation and obesity. The present study aimed to evaluate the relation of depressive symptoms with inflammatory factors and adipose-derived adipokines in middle-aged and older Chinese.Data were from 3289 community residents aged 50-70 from Beijing and Shanghai who participated in the Nutrition and Health of Aging Population in China project. Depressive symptoms were defined as a Center for Epidemiological Studies of Depression Scale (CES-D) score of 16 or higher. Plasma concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), adiponectin, resistin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) and retinol binding protein 4 (RBP4) were measured. Of the 3289 participants, 312 (9.5%) suffered from current depressive symptoms. IL-6 level was higher in participants with depressive symptoms compared to their counterparts in the crude analyses (1.17 vs. 1.05 pg/mL, p = 0.023) and this association lost statistical significance after multiple adjustments (1.13 vs. 1.10 pg/mL, p = 0.520). Depressive symptoms were not associated with increased mean levels of any other inflammatory factors or adipokines in the unadjusted or adjusted analyses.We found no evidence that depressive symptoms were associated with inflammatory factors and adipokines in the middle-aged and older Chinese populations. Prospective studies and studies in clinically diagnosed patients are needed to confirm our results and clarify the relation of depression with inflammatory factors and adipokines

Prognostic implications of comorbidity patterns in critically ill COVID-19 patients: A multicenter, observational study

Background The clinical heterogeneity of COVID-19 suggests the existence of different phenotypes with prognostic implications. We aimed to analyze comorbidity patterns in critically ill COVID-19 patients and assess their impact on in-hospital outcomes, response to treatment and sequelae. Methods Multicenter prospective/retrospective observational study in intensive care units of 55 Spanish hospitals. 5866 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients had comorbidities recorded at hospital admission; clinical and biological parameters, in-hospital procedures and complications throughout the stay; and, clinical complications, persistent symptoms and sequelae at 3 and 6 months. Findings Latent class analysis identified 3 phenotypes using training and test subcohorts: low-morbidity (n=3385; 58%), younger and with few comorbidities; high-morbidity (n=2074; 35%), with high comorbid burden; and renal-morbidity (n=407; 7%), with chronic kidney disease (CKD), high comorbidity burden and the worst oxygenation profile. Renal-morbidity and high-morbidity had more in-hospital complications and higher mortality risk than low-morbidity (adjusted HR (95% CI): 1.57 (1.34-1.84) and 1.16 (1.05-1.28), respectively). Corticosteroids, but not tocilizumab, were associated with lower mortality risk (HR (95% CI) 0.76 (0.63-0.93)), especially in renal-morbidity and high-morbidity. Renal-morbidity and high-morbidity showed the worst lung function throughout the follow-up, with renal-morbidity having the highest risk of infectious complications (6%), emergency visits (29%) or hospital readmissions (14%) at 6 months (p<0.01). Interpretation Comorbidity-based phenotypes were identified and associated with different expression of in-hospital complications, mortality, treatment response, and sequelae, with CKD playing a major role. This could help clinicians in day-to-day decision making including the management of post-discharge COVID-19 sequelae. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI