Confidence trick: the interpretation of confidence intervals

The frequent misinterpretation of the nature of confidence intervals by students has been well documented. This article examines the problem as an aspect of the learning of mathematical definitions and considers the tension between parroting mathematically rigorous, but essentially uninternalized, statements on the one hand and expressing imperfect but developing understandings on the other. A small-scale study among schoolteachers sought comments on four definitions expressing differing understandings of confidence intervals, and these are examined and discussed. The article concludes that some student wordings could be regarded as less inaccurate than they might seem at first sight and presents a case for accepting a wider range of more intuitive understandings as a work in progress

Acute and Chronic Acetaminophen Use and Renal Disease: A Case-Control Study Using Pharmacy and Medical Claims

Studies have examined the association between acetaminophen (APAP) use and renal disease; however, their interpretation is limited by a number of methodological issues

Prescription-Acquired Acetaminophen Use and the Risk of Asthma in Adults: A Case-Control Study

Studies have examined the association between acetaminophen (APAP) use and asthma; however, their interpretation is limited by a number of methodological issues

Mentoring at the University of Pennsylvania: Results of a Faculty Survey

BACKGROUND: Research suggests mentoring is related to career satisfaction and success. Most studies have focused on junior faculty. OBJECTIVE: To explore multiple aspects of mentoring at an academic medical center in relation to faculty rank, track, and gender. DESIGN: Cross-sectional mail survey in mid-2003. PARTICIPANTS: Faculty members, 1,432, at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered survey developed from existing instruments and stakeholders. RESULTS: Response rate was 73% (n = 1,046). Most (92%) assistant and half (48%) of associate professors had a mentor. Assistant professors in the tenure track were most likely to have a mentor (98%). At both ranks, the faculty was given more types of advice than types of opportunities. Satisfaction with mentoring was correlated with the number of types of mentoring received (r = .48 and .53, P < .0001), job satisfaction (r = .44 and .31, P < .0001), meeting frequency (r = .53 and .61, P < .0001), and expectation of leaving the University within 5 years (Spearman r = −.19 and −.18, P < .0001), at the assistant and associate rank, respectively. Significant predictors of higher overall job satisfaction were associate rank [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.04, CI = 1.29–3.21], the 10-point mentoring satisfaction rating (OR = 1.27, CI = 1.17–1.35), and number of mentors (OR = 1.60, CI = 1.20–2.07). CONCLUSIONS: Having a mentor, or preferably, multiple mentors is strongly related to satisfaction with mentoring and overall job satisfaction. Surprisingly, few differences were related to gender. Mentoring of clinician–educators, research track faculty, and senior faculty, and the use of multiple mentors require specific attention of academic leadership and further study

Critical research gaps and translational priorities for the successful prevention and treatment of breast cancer

INTRODUCTION Breast cancer remains a significant scientific, clinical and societal challenge. This gap analysis has reviewed and critically assessed enduring issues and new challenges emerging from recent research, and proposes strategies for translating solutions into practice. METHODS More than 100 internationally recognised specialist breast cancer scientists, clinicians and healthcare professionals collaborated to address nine thematic areas: genetics, epigenetics and epidemiology; molecular pathology and cell biology; hormonal influences and endocrine therapy; imaging, detection and screening; current/novel therapies and biomarkers; drug resistance; metastasis, angiogenesis, circulating tumour cells, cancer 'stem' cells; risk and prevention; living with and managing breast cancer and its treatment. The groups developed summary papers through an iterative process which, following further appraisal from experts and patients, were melded into this summary account. RESULTS The 10 major gaps identified were: (1) understanding the functions and contextual interactions of genetic and epigenetic changes in normal breast development and during malignant transformation; (2) how to implement sustainable lifestyle changes (diet, exercise and weight) and chemopreventive strategies; (3) the need for tailored screening approaches including clinically actionable tests; (4) enhancing knowledge of molecular drivers behind breast cancer subtypes, progression and metastasis; (5) understanding the molecular mechanisms of tumour heterogeneity, dormancy, de novo or acquired resistance and how to target key nodes in these dynamic processes; (6) developing validated markers for chemosensitivity and radiosensitivity; (7) understanding the optimal duration, sequencing and rational combinations of treatment for improved personalised therapy; (8) validating multimodality imaging biomarkers for minimally invasive diagnosis and monitoring of responses in primary and metastatic disease; (9) developing interventions and support to improve the survivorship experience; (10) a continuing need for clinical material for translational research derived from normal breast, blood, primary, relapsed, metastatic and drug-resistant cancers with expert bioinformatics support to maximise its utility. The proposed infrastructural enablers include enhanced resources to support clinically relevant in vitro and in vivo tumour models; improved access to appropriate, fully annotated clinical samples; extended biomarker discovery, validation and standardisation; and facilitated cross-discipline working. CONCLUSIONS With resources to conduct further high-quality targeted research focusing on the gaps identified, increased knowledge translating into improved clinical care should be achievable within five years

Calibration of a Neutron Polarimeter

This research was sponsored by the National Science Foundation Grant NSF PHY-931478

The Extreme Hosts of Extreme Supernovae

We use GALEX ultraviolet (UV) and optical integrated photometry of the hosts of seventeen luminous supernovae (LSNe, having peak M_V < -21) and compare them to a sample of 26,000 galaxies from a cross-match between the SDSS DR4 spectral catalog and GALEX interim release 1.1. We place the LSNe hosts on the galaxy NUV-r versus M_r color magnitude diagram (CMD) with the larger sample to illustrate how extreme they are. The LSN hosts appear to favor low-density regions of the galaxy CMD falling on the blue edge of the blue cloud toward the low luminosity end. From the UV-optical photometry, we estimate the star formation history of the LSN hosts. The hosts have moderately low star formation rates (SFRs) and low stellar masses (M_*) resulting in high specific star formation rates (sSFR). Compared with the larger sample, the LSN hosts occupy low-density regions of a diagram plotting sSFR versus M_* in the area having higher sSFR and lower M_*. This preference for low M_*, high sSFR hosts implies the LSNe are produced by an effect having to do with their local environment. The correlation of mass with metallicity suggests that perhaps wind-driven mass loss is the factor that prevents LSNe from arising in higher-mass, higher-metallicity hosts. The massive progenitors of the LSNe (>100 M_sun), by appearing in low-SFR hosts, are potential tests for theories of the initial mass function that limit the maximum mass of a star based on the SFR.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables, accepted to ApJ, amended references and updated SN designation

Aerodynamic investigations of ventilated brake discs.

The heat dissipation and performance of a ventilated brake disc strongly depends on the aerodynamic characteristics of the flow through the rotor passages. The aim of this investigation was to provide an improved understanding of ventilated brake rotor flow phenomena, with a view to improving heat dissipation, as well as providing a measurement data set for validation of computational fluid dynamics methods. The flow fields at the exit of four different brake rotor geometries, rotated in free air, were measured using a five-hole pressure probe and a hot-wire anemometry system. The principal measurements were taken using two-component hot-wire techniques and were used to determine mean and unsteady flow characteristics at the exit of the brake rotors. Using phase-locked data processing, it was possible to reveal the spatial and temporal flow variation within individual rotor passages. The effects of disc geometry and rotational speed on the mean flow, passage turbulence intensity, and mass flow were determined. The rotor exit jet and wake flow were clearly observed as characterized by the passage geometry as well as definite regions of high and low turbulence. The aerodynamic flow characteristics were found to be reasonably independent of rotational speed but highly dependent upon rotor geometry

Measurement of inclusive D*+- and associated dijet cross sections in photoproduction at HERA

Inclusive photoproduction of D*+- mesons has been measured for photon-proton centre-of-mass energies in the range 130 < W < 280 GeV and a photon virtuality Q^2 < 1 GeV^2. The data sample used corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 37 pb^-1. Total and differential cross sections as functions of the D* transverse momentum and pseudorapidity are presented in restricted kinematical regions and the data are compared with next-to-leading order (NLO) perturbative QCD calculations using the "massive charm" and "massless charm" schemes. The measured cross sections are generally above the NLO calculations, in particular in the forward (proton) direction. The large data sample also allows the study of dijet production associated with charm. A significant resolved as well as a direct photon component contribute to the cross section. Leading order QCD Monte Carlo calculations indicate that the resolved contribution arises from a significant charm component in the photon. A massive charm NLO parton level calculation yields lower cross sections compared to the measured results in a kinematic region where the resolved photon contribution is significant.Comment: 32 pages including 6 figure

Observation of Scaling Violations in Scaled Momentum Distributions at HERA

Charged particle production has been measured in deep inelastic scattering (DIS) events over a large range of $x$ and $Q^2$ using the ZEUS detector. The evolution of the scaled momentum, $x_p$, with $Q^2,$ in the range 10 to 1280 $GeV^2$, has been investigated in the current fragmentation region of the Breit frame. The results show clear evidence, in a single experiment, for scaling violations in scaled momenta as a function of $Q^2$.Comment: 21 pages including 4 figures, to be published in Physics Letters B. Two references adde