A quantitative explanation of the observed population of Milky Way satellite galaxies

We revisit the well known discrepancy between the observed number of Milky Way (MW) dwarf satellite companions and the predicted population of cold dark matter (CDM) sub-halos, in light of the dozen new low luminosity satellites found in SDSS imaging data and our recent calibration of the SDSS satellite detection efficiency, which implies a total population far larger than these dozen discoveries. We combine a dynamical model for the CDM sub-halo population with simple, physically motivated prescriptions for assigning stellar content to each sub-halo, then apply observational selection effects and compare to the current observational census. As expected, models in which the stellar mass is a constant fraction F(Omega_b/Omega_m) of the sub-halo mass M_sat at the time it becomes a satellite fail for any choice of F. However, previously advocated models that invoke suppression of gas accretion after reionization in halos with circular velocity v_c <~ 35 km/s can reproduce the observed satellite counts for -15 < M_V < 0, with F ~ 10^{-3}. Successful models also require strong suppression of star formation BEFORE reionization in halos with v_c <~ 10 km/s; models without pre-reionization suppression predict far too many satellites with -5 < M_V < 0. Our models also reproduce the observed stellar velocity dispersions ~ 5-10 km/s of the SDSS dwarfs given the observed sizes of their stellar distributions, and model satellites have M(<300 pc) ~ 10^7 M_sun as observed even though their present day total halo masses span more than two orders of magnitude. Our modeling shows that natural physical mechanisms acting within the CDM framework can quantitatively explain the properties of the MW satellite population as it is presently known, thus providing a convincing solution to the `missing satellite' problem.Comment: 18 pages, 14 figures, accepted to ApJ. Minor changes following referees repor

Precision Scaling Relations for Disk Galaxies in the Local Universe

We build templates of rotation curves as a function of the I-band luminosity via the mass modeling (by the sum of a thin exponential disk and a cored halo profile) of suitably normalized, stacked data from wide samples of local spiral galaxies. We then exploit such templates to determine fundamental stellar and halo properties for a sample of about 550 local disk-dominated galaxies with high-quality measurements of the optical radius Roptand of the corresponding rotation velocity Vopt. Specifically, we determine the stellar M 17and halo MHmasses, the halo size RHand velocity scale VH, and the specific angular momenta of the stellar j 17and dark matter jHcomponents. We derive global scaling relationships involving such stellar and halo properties both for the individual galaxies in our sample and for their mean within bins; the latter are found to be in pleasing agreement with previous determinations by independent methods (e.g., abundance matching techniques, weak-lensing observations, and individual rotation curve modeling). Remarkably, the size of our sample and the robustness of our statistical approach allow us to attain an unprecedented level of precision over an extended range of mass and velocity scales, with 1\u3c3 dispersion around the mean relationships of less than 0.1 dex. We thus set new standard local relationships that must be reproduced by detailed physical models, which offer a basis for improving the subgrid recipes in numerical simulations, that provide a benchmark to gauge independent observations and check for systematics, and that constitute a basic step toward the future exploitation of the spiral galaxy population as a cosmological probe

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Two phase galaxy formation: The Gas Content of Normal Galaxies

We investigate the atomic (HI) and molecular (H_2) Hydrogen content of normal galaxies by combining observational studies linking galaxy stellar and gas budgets to their host dark matter (DM) properties, with a physically grounded galaxy formation model. This enables us to analyse empirical relationships between the virial, stellar, and gaseous masses of galaxies and explore their physical origins. Utilising a semi-analytic model (SAM) to study the evolution of baryonic material within evolving DM halos, we study the effects of baryonic infall and various star formation and feedback mechanisms on the properties of formed galaxies using the most up-to-date physical recipes. We find that in order to significantly improve agreement with observations of low-mass galaxies we must suppress the infall of baryonic material and exploit a two-phase interstellar medium (ISM), where the ratio of HI to H_2 is determined by the galactic disk structure. Modifying the standard Schmidt-Kennicutt star formation law, which acts upon the total cold gas in galaxy discs and includes a critical density threshold, and employing a star formation law which correlates with the H_2 gas mass results in a lower overall star formation rate. This in turn, allows us to simultaneously reproduce stellar, HI and H_2 mass functions of normal galaxies.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, 1 table. Moderate revision to match version accepted for publication in MNRA

Herschel-ATLAS: modelling the first strong gravitational lenses

We have determined the mass density radial profiles of the first five strong gravitational lens systems discovered by the Herschel Astrophysical Terahertz Large Area Survey. We present an enhancement of the semilinear lens inversion method of Warren & Dye which allows simultaneous reconstruction of several different wavebands and apply this to dual-band imaging of the lenses acquired with the Hubble Space Telescope. The five systems analysed here have lens redshifts which span a range 0.22 ≤ z ≤ 0.94. Our findings are consistent with other studies by concluding that: (1) the logarithmic slope of the total mass density profile steepens with decreasing redshift; (2) the slope is positively correlated with the average total projected mass density of the lens contained within half the effective radius and negatively correlated with the effective radius; (3) the fraction of dark matter contained within half the effective radius increases with increasing effective radius and increases with redshift

Characteristics of control group participants who increased their physical activity in a cluster-randomized lifestyle intervention trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Meaningful improvement in physical activity among control group participants in lifestyle intervention trials is not an uncommon finding, and may be partly explained by participant characteristics. This study investigated which baseline demographic, health and behavioural characteristics were predictive of successful improvement in physical activity in usual care group participants recruited into a telephone-delivered physical activity and diet intervention trial, and descriptively compared these characteristics with those that were predictive of improvement among intervention group participants.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data come from the Logan Healthy Living Program, a primary care-based, cluster-randomized controlled trial of a physical activity and diet intervention. Multivariable logistic regression models examined variables predictive of an improvement of at least 60 minutes per week of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity among usual care (n = 166) and intervention group (n = 175) participants.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Baseline variables predictive of a meaningful change in physical activity were different for the usual care and intervention groups. Being retired and completing secondary school (but no further education) were predictive of physical activity improvement for usual care group participants, whereas only baseline level of physical activity was predictive of improvement for intervention group participants. Higher body mass index and being unmarried may also be predictors of physical activity improvement for usual care participants.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first study to examine differences in predictors of physical activity improvement between intervention group and control group participants enrolled in a physical activity intervention trial. While further empirical research is necessary to confirm findings, results suggest that participants with certain socio-demographic characteristics may respond favourably to minimal intensity interventions akin to the treatment delivered to participants in a usual care group. In future physical activity intervention trials, it may be possible to screen participants for baseline characteristics in order to target minimal-intensity interventions to those most likely to benefit. (Australian Clinical Trials Registry, <url>http://www.anzctr.org.au/default.aspx</url>, ACTRN012607000195459)</p

Tracking down carbon inputs underground from an arid zone Australian calcrete.

Freshwater ecosystems play a key role in shaping the global carbon cycle and maintaining the ecological balance that sustains biodiversity worldwide. Surficial water bodies are often interconnected with groundwater, forming a physical continuum, and their interaction has been reported as a crucial driver for organic matter (OM) inputs in groundwater systems. However, despite the growing concerns related to increasing anthropogenic pressure and effects of global change to groundwater environments, our understanding of the dynamics regulating subterranean carbon flows is still sparse. We traced carbon composition and transformations in an arid zone calcrete aquifer using a novel multidisciplinary approach that combined isotopic analyses of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and inorganic carbon (DIC) (δ13CDOC, δ13CDIC, 14CDOC and 14CDIC) with fluorescence spectroscopy (Chromophoric Dissolved OM (CDOM) characterisation) and metabarcoding analyses (taxonomic and functional genomics on bacterial 16S rRNA). To compare dynamics linked to potential aquifer recharge processes, water samples were collected from two boreholes under contrasting rainfall: low rainfall ((LR), dry season) and high rainfall ((HR), wet season). Our isotopic results indicate limited changes and dominance of modern terrestrial carbon in the upper part (northeast) of the bore field, but correlation between HR and increased old and 13C-enriched DOC in the lower area (southwest). CDOM results show a shift from terrestrially to microbially derived compounds after rainfall in the same lower field bore, which was also sampled for microbial genetics. Functional genomic results showed increased genes coding for degradative pathways-dominated by those related to aromatic compound metabolisms-during HR. Our results indicate that rainfall leads to different responses in different parts of the bore field, with an increase in old carbon sources and microbial processing in the lower part of the field. We hypothesise that this may be due to increasing salinity, either due to mobilisation of Cl- from the soil, or infiltration from the downstream salt lake during HR. This study is the first to use a multi-technique assessment using stable and radioactive isotopes together with functional genomics to probe the principal organic biogeochemical pathways regulating an arid zone calcrete system. Further investigations involving extensive sampling from diverse groundwater ecosystems will allow better understanding of the microbiological pathways sustaining the ecological functioning of subterranean biota

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

A NEW SPECIES OF ANEMONE (RANUNCULACEAE) FROM CENTRAL TEXAS

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