Examining sustainability of government debt in India: post Covid prospects

In this paper, we examine the determination of the sustainable level of debt-GDP ratio for the combined debt of central and state governments relative to GDP using (a) an analytical approach which was followed by the Twelfth Finance Commission (FC 12) and (b) an econometric model using threshold estimation. These methods provide results which are quite close to the target debt-GDP ratio of 60% determined by the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) review committee of 2018. In order to understand the evolution of government debt in India, we have divided the period from 1991-92 to 2018-19 into two sub-groups (A) consisting of years where a primary deficit was incurred; and (B) years where a primary surplus was shown. In the case of India, all years are characterized by primary deficit. These years are further divided into three sub-categories based on the contribution to the debt-GDP ratio made by (i) primary balance and (ii) excess of nominal growth rate over interest rate. The approach used here provides a modified view of the dynamics of debt as explained by the contribution of cumulated primary deficit and that of the excess of nominal growth over interest rate which was used in Rangarajan and Srivastava (2004). We have shown that this dynamics is well captured by an ARDL estimation which estimates the individual contribution of each of the contributing factor to debt accumulation namely primary deficit to GDP ratio, lagged debt-GDP ratio, nominal GDP growth rate and interest rate. We find that government debt in India is likely to exceed the sustainable debt-GDP threshold by a large margin in the post Covid years and even after normalcy is restored, it would take a long period for sustainability to be restored. It would also require that adequate policy measures are taken to ensure that growth rate exceeds the interest rate over long contiguous periods

Revisiting fiscal responsibility norms: a cross country analysis of the impact of Covid-19

In this paper, we have reviewed the Covid induced shock to the debt and deficit profiles of 10 of the largest economies by size of GDP in 2019 referred to in this paper as the Big-10 economies. There is a sharp upsurge in their government debt-GDP ratios because their policy responses to the Covid induced recession have been large fiscal stimuli based on borrowing. With low and often negative growth rates and high fiscal deficit, the debt-GDP ratios are projected to rise sharply in these economies. As normalcy is restored, these countries may attempt to sharply reduce their borrowing levels relative to GDP. However, we argue that before this is done, individual countries may do well to reassess their sustainability norms whether cast in terms of agreements such as the Maastricht Treaty or country level Fiscal Responsibility Legislations (FRLs) or other similar norms. This revision is called for because of the longer-term trends in these economies of rising money supply, falling nominal interest rates and nominal growth rate. The contribution of this article lies in highlighting that the existing FRL norms have become dated in the European and other similar economies because of significant changes in macro parameters such as the interest rate, the long-term growth rate and the government debt-GDP profiles of these countries as compared to the time when these norms were originally determined. There is thus a need now to re-determine these norms which may be higher than their current levels. Even though, some recent literature suggests that the sustainability benchmarks may have shifted upwards, we argue that the post Covid debt-GDP ratios have exceeded these revised benchmarks by significant margins in the case of a number of the Big-10 economie

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Impact of Covid-19 on global debt: a study of countries in the G-20 group

This paper highlights the prospect of a Covid-19 led upsurge in the government debt-GDP ratio of 19 countries in the G-20 group. Many of these countries have Fiscal Responsibility Legislations (FRLs) where government debt-GDP ratios have been tar-geted. A key policy implication of our findings is that most countries will find that the post-Covid slippage in their government debt-GDP ratio is so large as to call for major changes in their fiscal policy framework. In some cases, even a modification of their FRL may be warranted. The evolution of debt of these countries over the period 1996 to 2019 indicates that major economic crises have led to one-time upsurges in their debt-GDP ratios covering both government and private debt. These ratios tend to re-main at high levels well after the crises are over, showing downward rigidity. We esti-mate that Covid-19 induced increase in government debt-GDP ratio for the selected countries, would amount to 14.9% points on average which is more than 141% higher than the increase of 6.2% points resulting from the 2008 crisis. We propose a methodology to project the government debt-GDP ratio as a function of incremental borrowing relative to GDP, real GDP growth and GDP deflator-based infla-tion. We also estimate the relative contribution to the increase in government debt-GDP ratio, individually of these factors. We find that the upsurge in the Covid led government debt-GDP ratio is large because of the reversal of the role of the growth factor in explaining the change in the debt-GDP ratio between two successive years. In particular, instead of appearing with a negative sign, which is the case in a normal year, it appears with a positive sign in a crisis year. Further, the fiscal deficit-GDP ratio also increases due to large stimulus packages in a crisis yea

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Kras Gene Mutation and RASSF1A, FHIT and MGMT Gene Promoter Hypermethylation: Indicators of Tumor Staging and Metastasis in Adenocarcinomatous Sporadic Colorectal Cancer in Indian Population

<div><p>Objective</p><p>Colorectal cancer (CRC) development involves underlying modifications at genetic/epigenetic level. This study evaluated the role of Kras gene mutation and RASSF1A, FHIT and MGMT gene promoter hypermethylation together/independently in sporadic CRC in Indian population and correlation with clinicopathological variables of the disease.</p> <p>Methods</p><p>One hundred and twenty four consecutive surgically resected tissues (62 tumor and equal number of normal adjacent controls) of primary sporadic CRC were included and patient details including demographic characteristics, lifestyle/food or drinking habits, clinical and histopathological profiles were recorded. Polymerase chain reaction - Restriction fragment length polymorphism and direct sequencing for Kras gene mutation and Methylation Specific-PCR for RASSF1A, FHIT and MGMT genes was performed.</p> <p>Results</p><p>Kras gene mutation at codon 12 & 13 and methylated RASSF1A, FHIT and MGMT gene was observed in 47%, 19%, 47%, 37% and 47% cases, respectively. Alcohol intake and smoking were significantly associated with presence of Kras mutation (codon 12) and MGMT methylation (p-value <0.049). Tumor stage and metastasis correlated with presence of mutant Kras codon 12 (p-values 0.018, 0.044) and methylated RASSF1A (p-values 0.034, 0.044), FHIT (p-values 0.001, 0.047) and MGMT (p-values 0.018, 0.044) genes. Combinatorial effect of gene mutation/methylation was also observed (p-value <0.025). Overall, tumor stage 3, moderately differentiated tumors, presence of lymphatic invasion and absence of metastasis was more frequently observed in tumors with mutated Kras and/or methylated RASSF1A, FHIT and MGMT genes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p><p>Synergistic interrelationship between these genes in sporadic CRC may be used as diagnostic/prognostic markers in assessing the overall pathological status of CRC.</p> </div

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Not AvailableSubclinical mastitis (SCM) in buffalo is one of the most challenging paradoxes for the dairy sector with very significant milk production losses and poses an imminent danger to milch animal’s milk-producing ability. We present here the genome-wide methylation specific to SCM in water buffalo and its consequential effect on the gene expression landscape for the first time. Whole-genome DNA methylation profiles from peripheral blood lymphocytes and gene expression profiles from milk somatic cells of healthy and SCM cases were catalogued from the MeDIP-Seq and RNA-Seq data. The average methylation in healthy buffaloes was found to be higher than that in the SCM-infected buffaloes. DNA methylation was abundant in the intergenic region followed by the intronic region in both healthy control and SCM groups. A total of 3,950 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were identified and annotated to 370 differentially methylated genes (DMGs), most of which were enriched in the promoter region. Several important pathways were activated due to hypomethylation and belonged to the Staphylococcus aureus infection, Th17 cell differentiation, and antigen processing and presentation pathways along with others of defense responses. DNA methylome was compared with transcriptome to understand the regulatory role of DNA methylation on gene expression specific to SCM in buffaloes. A total of 4,778 significant differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were extracted in response to SCM, out of which 67 DMGs were also found to be differentially expressed, suggesting that during SCM, DNA methylation could be one of the epigenetic regulatory mechanisms of gene expression. Genes like CSF2RB, LOC102408349, C3 and PZP like, and CPAMD8 were found to be downregulated in our study, which are known to be involved in the immune response to SCM. Association of DNA methylation with transposable elements, miRNAs, and lncRNAs was also studied. The present study reports a buffalo SCM web resource (BSCM2TDb) available at http://webtom.cabgrid.res.in/BSCM2TDb that catalogues all the mastitis-related information of the analyses results of this study in a single place. This will be of immense use to buffalo researchers to understand the host–pathogen interaction involving SCM, which is required in endeavors of mastitis control and management.Not Availabl

Demographic profile and follow up of 62 patients with sporadic CRC.

*<p>Co morbidities include hypertension, diabetes, heart diseases and tuberculosis.</p