Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations. METHODS: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Stanaway JD, Afshin A, Gakidou E, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet. 2018;392(10159):1923-1994.Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Extended-spectrum Beta-lactamase and AmpC beta-lactamases producing gram negative bacilli isolated from clinical specimens at International Clinical Laboratories, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BackgroundExtended spectrum Beta-lactamases (ESBLs) and AmpC beta-lactamases (AmpC) are the common enzymes produced by gram negative bacilli, which are their main mechanisms of resistance to all generations of cephalosporins. Hence, this study aimed to determine the magnitude of ESBLs and AmpC producing gram negative bacilli (GNB) isolated from clinical specimens at International clinical Laboratories in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.MethodsA cross sectional study was conducted from January to May 2018. From different clinical specimens, 338 GNB were isolated and characterized. Bacterial species identification, antimicrobial susceptibility testing and screening for ESBLs and AmpC production were performed using Phoenix automated system (BD phoenix100). ESBLs production was confirmed using a combination disc method. All Cefoxitin resistant and confirmed ESBLs producing GNB were confirmed for AmpC beta-lactamases production by AmpC confirmatory Neo-Sensitabs discs (ROSCO tablet). Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20 software.ResultsE. coli 66.0% (224/338) followed by K. pneumoniae 12.1% (41/338) were GNB most frequently isolated. The overall magnitude of ESBLs producing GNB was 38.8% (131/338) and the extent of AmpC beta-lactamase producing GNB was 2.4% (8/338). Majority of ESBLs and AmpC beta-lactamases producing GNB were isolated from urine specimens 47.5% (116/338). Ampicillin (75.4%), amoxicillin with clavulanic acid (64.0%) and sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim (55.6%) were most the antibiotics to which resistance was most commonly found. The multidrug resistance (MDR) level of GNB was 74.0% (250/338). Of ESBLs and AmpC beta-lactamases producing GNB, 99.3% were MDR (p ConclusionThe high magnitude of ESBLs and AmpC beta-lactamases producing GNB calls the needs of strong intervention to minimize further occurrence and spread of such GNB. More importantly, the MDR level was high which suggests continuous monitoring & reviewing of antimicrobial policy in hospitals and the country at large

Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase production and multi-drug resistance among Enterobacteriaceae isolated in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract Background The global emergence and spread of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs) producing Enterobacteriaceae have been threatening the ability to treat an infection. Hence, this study aimed to determine the prevalence of ESBL-producing and multi-drug resistance (MDR) Enterobacteriaceae (ESBLs-E) from different clinical specimens in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted from January 1 to May 30, 2017. A total of 426 Enterobacteriaceae isolates were identified from clinical specimens. The isolates were collected from four laboratories. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed using the Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method on Muller Hinton agar (MHA). All Enterobacteriaceae were screened for ESBLs production using cefotaxime and ceftazidime as per CLSI guideline. Each ESBL screening positive Enterobacteriaceae were confirmed by a combination disk test (CDT). Data were entered and analyzed by using SPSS version-20. Result The most frequent Enterobacteriaceae were E. coli 228 (53.5%) and K. pneumoniae 103 (24.1%). The magnitude of ESBLs-E was 57.7% (246/426). The highest frequencies of ESBLs-E were observed in blood specimesns (84.4%) and the highest ESBLs production was observed in K. pneumoniae (85.4%). The highest resistance level was seen to sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim (77.0%), amoxicillin with clavulanic acid (71.6%), cefotaxime (62.2%), cefepime (60.3%) and ceftazidime (60.8%). The overall magnitude of multi-drug resistance (MDR) level was 68.3%. Of ESBLs-E, 96.3% of them were MDR (P < 0.001). Conclusion There was a high prevalence of ESBLs-E and MDR isolate in Addis Ababa. Most of ESBLs-E was isolated primarily in blood and urine. The highest ESBLs production was observed among K. pneumoniae. Hence, strong infection control strategies must be implemented in hospital settings of the country

Multidrug-Resistant and Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background. The emergence and spread of multi-drug resistant (MDR) bacteria have become a public health problem in recent years. For the last many years, carbapenem antibiotics have been used successfully to treat infections caused by MDR Enterobacteriaceae. However, recently, Enterobacteriaceae producing carbapenemases have emerged, which confer broad resistance to most β-lactam antibiotics including carbapenems. Therefore, this study is aimed at determining the magnitude of MDR and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) isolated from various clinical specimens in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted from January to April 2018. A total of 312 Enterobacteriaceae isolates were identified from various clinical specimens. The Phoenix automated system (BD Phoenix100) was used for bacterial identification and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Potential carbapenemase producers were confirmed by the modified carbapenem inactivation test, and KPC, MBL, and OXA-48 were phenotypically characterized by the disk diffusion method. The data obtained were entered and analyzed using SPSS version 20 software. Descriptive statistics, chi square, bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. P value ≤ 0.05 with corresponding 95% confidence interval was considered for statistical significance. Results. A total of 312 Enterobacteriaceae were recovered. Of these isolates, 68.6% were MDR and 2.6% were CPE with different classes including OXA-48 1.6% (5/312), MBL 0.6% (2/312), and KPC and OXA-48 0.3% (1/312). The predominant bacterial isolates were E. coli 72.4% (226/312) followed by K. pneumoniae 13.8% (43/312). The antibiotic resistance rates of CPE isolates were significantly higher than other MDRE including ampicillin (100% versus 77.6%), cefoxitin (75% versus 20.6%), and piperacillin/tazobactam (50% versus 13.1%). Conclusion. In this study, a relatively higher prevalence of MDR was observed, and the highest resistance was recorded against ampicillin, amoxicillin with clavulanic acid, and sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim. Detection of CPE is important for implementing appropriate antimicrobial therapy and in controlling the spread of the infection. Furthermore, continuous screening and investigations, including genotypic characterization of CPE, are required for the prevention and control of the spread of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens

Virological and bacteriological quality of drinking water in Ethiopia

Abstract Since unsafe water is responsible for many illness, deaths, and economic failure, water quality monitoring is essential. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 218 drinking waters samples collected between February and June 2016 to assess water quality using phages by the help of CB390 E. coli host, plaque assay; multiple tube fermentation for coliforms and pour plate for heterotrophic bacteria at Ethiopian Public Health Institute. Heterotrophic plate count greater than 100 cfu/ml was noted in 41 samples and detections of total and thermotolerant coliforms and E. coli in 38, 24, and 10 samples, respectively, and no phages detection in chlorinated waters. While heterotrophic plate count greater than 100 cfu/ml was observed in 100 samples and detections of total and thermotolerant coliforms, E. coli, and phages in 75, 60, 42, and 5 samples, respectively, for untreated waters. The majority of the waters contained indicators above standard limits. This indicates that the sources are contaminated and they are potential threats for health. Hence, regular water monitoring should be a priority agenda