Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations. METHODS: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Stanaway JD, Afshin A, Gakidou E, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet. 2018;392(10159):1923-1994.Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Etiology of Anemia in Older Mexican Adults: The Role of Hepcidin, Vitamin A and Vitamin D

Anemia in older adults is a growing public health issue in Mexico; however, its etiology remains largely unknown. Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) and vitamin D deficiency (VDD) have been implicated in the development of anemia, though by different mechanisms. The aim of this study is to analyze the etiology of anemia and anemia-related factors in older Mexican adults. This is a cross-sectional study of 803 older adults from the southern region of Mexico in 2015. The anemia etiologies analyzed were chronic kidney disease (CKD), nutritional deficiencies (ND), anemia of inflammation (AI), anemia of multiple causes (AMC) and unexplained anemia (UEA). VAD was considered to be s-retinol ≤ 20 μg/dL, and VDD if 25(OH)D < 50 nmol/L. IL-6 and hepcidin were also measured. Multinomial regression models were generated and adjusted for confounders. Anemia was present in 35.7% of OA, independent of sex. UEA, CKD, AI and ND were confirmed in 45%, 29.3%, 14.6% and 7% of older adults with anemia, respectively. Hepcidin and log IL-6 were associated with AI (p < 0.05) and CKD (p < 0.001). VAD was associated with AI (p < 0.001), and VDD with ND and AMC (p < 0.05). Log-IL6 was associated with UEA (p < 0.001). In conclusion, anemia in older adults has an inflammatory component. VAD was associated to AI and VDD with ND and AMC

Serum Retinol but Not 25(OH)D Status Is Associated With Serum Hepcidin Levels in Older Mexican Adults

(1) Background: Elevated hepcidin levels have been linked to anemia of inflammation (AI). Retinol deficiency has shown to upregulate hepcidin expression in animals, while conflicting evidence links VD status with hepcidin concentration in humans. The purpose of the study is to explore if VA and VD status are associated with hepcidin concentrations in older Mexican adults (OA). (2) Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in summer 2015, using serum samples from 783 fasting OA ages 60 and above residents from Campeche and Yucatán. VA deficiency (VAD) was defined as serum retinol concentration <20 μg/dL and VD deficiency (VDD) as 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L. The log-hepcidin was the outcome variable expressed as continuous and tertiles of its distribution. Linear and ordinal regression models were used. (3) Results: VAD was present in 3.4% and VDD in 9.5% of OA. Log-retinol was inversely associated with log-hepcidin (coeff.: −0.15, 95%CI: −0.2, −0.09). VAD status shown a higher probability than non-VAD for higher hepcidin tertiles (OR = 2.15, 95%CI: 1.24, 3.74). VDD states was not associated with hepcidin in the linear (coeff.: 0.16, 95%CI: −0.02, 0.34) nor the ordinal model (OR = 0.74, 95%CI: 0.42, 1.28). (4) Conclusions: VAD, but not VDD, status was inversely associated with hepcidin concentrations in OA

Serum Retinol but Not 25(OH)D Status Is Associated With Serum Hepcidin Levels in Older Mexican Adults

(1) Background: Elevated hepcidin levels have been linked to anemia of inflammation (AI). Retinol deficiency has shown to upregulate hepcidin expression in animals, while conflicting evidence links VD status with hepcidin concentration in humans. The purpose of the study is to explore if VA and VD status are associated with hepcidin concentrations in older Mexican adults (OA). (2) Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in summer 2015, using serum samples from 783 fasting OA ages 60 and above residents from Campeche and Yucatán. VA deficiency (VAD) was defined as serum retinol concentration <20 μg/dL and VD deficiency (VDD) as 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L. The log-hepcidin was the outcome variable expressed as continuous and tertiles of its distribution. Linear and ordinal regression models were used. (3) Results: VAD was present in 3.4% and VDD in 9.5% of OA. Log-retinol was inversely associated with log-hepcidin (coeff.: −0.15, 95%CI: −0.2, −0.09). VAD status shown a higher probability than non-VAD for higher hepcidin tertiles (OR = 2.15, 95%CI: 1.24, 3.74). VDD states was not associated with hepcidin in the linear (coeff.: 0.16, 95%CI: −0.02, 0.34) nor the ordinal model (OR = 0.74, 95%CI: 0.42, 1.28). (4) Conclusions: VAD, but not VDD, status was inversely associated with hepcidin concentrations in OA

Etiology of Anemia in Older Mexican Adults: The Role of Hepcidin, Vitamin A and Vitamin D

Anemia in older adults is a growing public health issue in Mexico; however, its etiology remains largely unknown. Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) and vitamin D deficiency (VDD) have been implicated in the development of anemia, though by different mechanisms. The aim of this study is to analyze the etiology of anemia and anemia-related factors in older Mexican adults. This is a cross-sectional study of 803 older adults from the southern region of Mexico in 2015. The anemia etiologies analyzed were chronic kidney disease (CKD), nutritional deficiencies (ND), anemia of inflammation (AI), anemia of multiple causes (AMC) and unexplained anemia (UEA). VAD was considered to be s-retinol ≤ 20 μg/dL, and VDD if 25(OH)D p p p p p < 0.001). In conclusion, anemia in older adults has an inflammatory component. VAD was associated to AI and VDD with ND and AMC

Anemia and iron, zinc, copper and magnesium deficiency in Mexican adolescents: National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006 Anemia y deficiencia de hierro, zinc, cobre y magnesio en adolescentes mexicanos: resultados de la ENSANUT 2006

OBJETIVE: To describe the frequency of anemia and iron, zinc, copper and magnesium deficiencies among Mexican adolescents in the probabilistic survey ENSANUT 2006. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The sample included 2447 adolescents aged 12 to 19 y. Capillary hemoglobin and venous blood samples were collected to measure the concentrations of ferritin, sTFR, CRP, zinc, iron, copper and magnesium. Logistic regression models were constructed to assess the risk for mineral deficiencies. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of anemia was 11.8 and 4.6%, body iron deficiency 18.2 and 7.9% for females and males, respectively. Overall prevalence of tissue iron deficiency was 6.9%, low serum copper were14.4 and 12.25%; zinc 28.4 and 24.5%, magnesium 40 and 35.3%; for females and males, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high prevalence of mineral deficiency in Mexican adolescents; females were more prone to have more mineral deficiencies. Nutritional interventions are necessaries in order to reduce and control them.OBJETIVO: Describir la prevalencia de anemia y deficiencia de hierro, zinc, cobre y magnesio en adolescentes mexicanos en la encuesta probabilística ENSANUT 2006. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: La muestra incluyó 2447 adolescentes de 12 a 19 años de edad. Se tomó hemoglobina capilar y muestras de sangre venosa para medir las concentraciones séricas de ferritina, sTFR, CRP, zinc, hierro, cobre y magnesio. Se construyeron modelos de regresión logística para evaluar el riesgo de deficiencia de minerales. RESULTADOS: La prevalencia de anemia fue de 11.8% en mujeres y 4.6% en hombres. Las deficiencias de hierro fueron de 18.2 y 7.9% La deficiencia tisular de hierro fue 6.9%; la baja concentración de cobre fue de 14.4 y 12.25% la de zinc de 28.4 y 24.5%, la de magnesio fue 40 y 35.3% en mujeres y hombres, respectivamente. CONCLUSIONES: Existe una alta prevalencia de deficiencia de minerales en los adolescentes; las mujeres tuvieron mayor riesgo. Son necesarias intervenciones nutricionales para reducir o controlar estas deficiencias

Drops of Capillary Blood Are Not Appropriate for Hemoglobin Measurement with Point-of-Care Devices: A Comparative Study Using Drop Capillary, Pooled Capillary, and Venous Blood Samples

Population-based surveys matched by time but using different methodologies for determining hemoglobin (Hb) concentration have shown inconsistencies in estimating anemia prevalence. This study aimed to estimate measurement errors in Hb quantification in HemoCue 201+ using venous blood (VB) and capillary blood both drops (DCB) and pools (PCB), and compare the results against those of a reference method (VB analyzed in hematology analyzers based on the cyanmethemoglobin method). Children (n = 49), adult females (n = 50), and older adults (n = 50) were randomly allocated to donate VB (4 mL) and either DCB (three drops) or PCB (350 &micro;L). Results in HemoCue were analyzed through Bland Altman and Lyn&rsquo;s concordance against Hb concentration by the reference method. A positive average bias (systematic error) was found for the HemoCue (0.31 g/dL) using the same VB samples. This value was then subtracted from all readings carried out in the device. After this adjustment, DCB still produced a positive bias (0.42 &plusmn; 0.81 g/dL), and the variation of single results was &plusmn;1.6 g/dL (95% CI). PCB and VB performed similarly; the average bias was negligible (&minus;0.02 &plusmn; 0.36 and 0.00 &plusmn; 0.33 g/dL, respectively) and the variation of the results (95% CI) was &plusmn;0.7 g/dL or lower. Lyn&rsquo;s concordance values were 0.86, 0.96, and 0.98 for DCB, PCB, and VB, respectively. Random variation using DCB is too large to approximate the true Hb values, and therefore DCB should be discontinued for diagnosing anemia both in individuals and in populations

Use and understanding of the nutrition information panel of pre-packaged foods in a sample of Mexican consumers Uso y comprensión del etiquetado nutrimental posterior de los alimentos pre-empaquetados en una muestra de consumidores mexicanos

OBJECTIVE: To assess the use and understanding of the Nutritional information Panel (NIP) of pre-packaged foods by Mexican consumers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A questionnaire and an understanding test for NIP were applied to adult consumers in supermarkets of six cities in the Northern, Central, and Southern regions of Mexico. Data were analyzed by frequencies and Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Interviewed 731 consumers; 71.5% were women, mean age 33 ± 9.7 (range: 18-60), 70% completed high-school or a higher degree. In total, 17% of consumers use the NIP for making purchase decisions; 49% did not understand the NIP. Only 1.2% of consumers answered correctly the five questions of the NIP understanding test. CONCLUSIONS: The use and understanding of the NIP are low despite a high proportion self-reported reading and understanding. The lack of previous knowledge of the technical language prevents use and interpretation of NIP nutritional information for purchasing decisions.OBJETIVO: Evaluar el uso y comprensión del etiquetado nutricional posterior (NIP, por sus siglas en inglés) de alimentos preempacados por consumidores mexicanos. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se aplicaron un cuestionario y una prueba de comprensión del NIP a consumidores adultos en supermercados de seis ciudades de las regiones Norte, Centro y Sur de México. RESULTADOS: Se entrevistaron 731 consumidores; 71.5% eran mujeres, la media de edad 33 ± 9.7 años (intervalo 18-60); 70% terminaron preparatoria o un nivel más alto. El 17% usa la etiqueta nutrimental para elegir sus alimentos; 49% no comprendía la NIP. Sólo 1.2% de los consumidores respondió correctamente las cinco preguntas de la prueba de comprensión del NIP. CONCLUSIONES: El uso y comprensión del NIP fue bajo, a pesar de la gran proporción que autorreportó leerlo y comprenderlo. La falta de conocimiento previo del lenguaje técnico dificulta el uso e interpretación de la información nutricional de NIP para las decisiones de compras de alimentos