Burning Budgets: Does an Institutional Blank-Check Raise the Severity and Cost of Fighting Wildland Fires?

In conducting this research, I wanted to explore whether political incentives have a significant effect on wildfire management in the United States. I attempt to answer this question by proving a theoretical justification for why wildfires may become more expensive to fight and severe to manage because of political institutions. I then attempt to provide some hard evidence to support this theory by using regression analysis. My analysis suggests that political factors do matter for wildfire suppression funding, although I was unable to find strong enough evidence to suggest that these political factors are actually driving more severe wildfires. This research contributes to the literature on public choice theory, a branch of political economy that looks at government from the individual decision makers’ level. Additionally, this research contributes to the literature on what affects wildfire suppression effectiveness and funding. This research may contribute to future analyses of the institutions that make U.S. wildland firefighters more or less capable of effectively managing wildfires to protect human lives, property, and forests

Bayesian Multimodel Inference for Geostatistical Regression Models

The problem of simultaneous covariate selection and parameter inference for spatial regression models is considered. Previous research has shown that failure to take spatial correlation into account can influence the outcome of standard model selection methods. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is investigated for the calculation of parameter estimates and posterior model probabilities for spatial regression models. The method can accommodate normal and non-normal response data and a large number of covariates. Thus the method is very flexible and can be used to fit spatial linear models, spatial linear mixed models, and spatial generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The Bayesian MCMC method also allows a priori unequal weighting of covariates, which is not possible with many model selection methods such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The proposed method is demonstrated on two data sets. The first is the whiptail lizard data set which has been previously analyzed by other researchers investigating model selection methods. Our results confirmed the previous analysis suggesting that sandy soil and ant abundance were strongly associated with lizard abundance. The second data set concerned pollution tolerant fish abundance in relation to several environmental factors. Results indicate that abundance is positively related to Strahler stream order and a habitat quality index. Abundance is negatively related to percent watershed disturbance

Towards a neurocognitive approach to Dance Movement Therapy for mental health: A systematic review

Dance/Movement Therapy (DMT) has become an increasingly recognized and used treatment, though primarily used to target psychological and physical wellbeing in individuals with physical, medical, or neurological illnesses. To contribute to the relative lack of literature within the field of DMT for clinical mental health disorders, using a narrative synthesis, we review the scope of recent, controlled studies of DMT in samples with different psychiatric disorders including depression, schizophrenia, autism, and somatoform disorder. A systematic search of electronic databases (PubMed, Science Direct, World of Science, and Clinicaltrials.gov) was conducted to identify studies examining the effects of DMT in psychiatric populations. 15 studies were eligible for inclusion. After reviewing the principal results of the studies, we highlight strengths and weaknesses of this treatment approach and examine the potential efficacy of using bodily movements as a tool to reduce symptoms. We conclude by placing DMT within the context of contemporary cognitive neuroscience research, drawing out implications of such an orientation for future research, and discussing potential mechanisms by which DMT might reduce psychiatric symptoms. DMT has clear potential as a treatment for a range of conditions and symptoms and thus further research on its utility is warranted

Abdominal aortic aneurysm is associated with a variant in low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality and has a significant heritability. We carried out a genome-wide association discovery study of 1866 patients with AAA and 5435 controls and replication of promising signals (lead SNP with a p value < 1 × 10-5) in 2871 additional cases and 32,687 controls and performed further follow-up in 1491 AAA and 11,060 controls. In the discovery study, nine loci demonstrated association with AAA (p < 1 × 10-5). In the replication sample, the lead SNP at one of these loci, rs1466535, located within intron 1 of low-density-lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1) demonstrated significant association (p = 0.0042). We confirmed the association of rs1466535 and AAA in our follow-up study (p = 0.035). In a combined analysis (6228 AAA and 49182 controls), rs1466535 had a consistent effect size and direction in all sample sets (combined p = 4.52 × 10-10, odds ratio 1.15 [1.10-1.21]). No associations were seen for either rs1466535 or the 12q13.3 locus in independent association studies of coronary artery disease, blood pressure, diabetes, or hyperlipidaemia, suggesting that this locus is specific to AAA. Gene-expression studies demonstrated a trend toward increased LRP1 expression for the rs1466535 CC genotype in arterial tissues; there was a significant (p = 0.029) 1.19-fold (1.04-1.36) increase in LRP1 expression in CC homozygotes compared to TT homozygotes in aortic adventitia. Functional studies demonstrated that rs1466535 might alter a SREBP-1 binding site and influence enhancer activity at the locus. In conclusion, this study has identified a biologically plausible genetic variant associated specifically with AAA, and we suggest that this variant has a possible functional role in LRP1 expression

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Searching for VHE gamma-ray emission associated with IceCube neutrino alerts using FACT, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS

The realtime follow-up of neutrino events is a promising approach to searchfor astrophysical neutrino sources. It has so far provided compelling evidencefor a neutrino point source: the flaring gamma-ray blazar TXS 0506+056 observedin coincidence with the high-energy neutrino IceCube-170922A detected byIceCube. The detection of very-high-energy gamma rays (VHE, $\mathrm{E} >100\,\mathrm{GeV}$) from this source helped establish the coincidence andconstrained the modeling of the blazar emission at the time of the IceCubeevent. The four major imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope arrays (IACTs) -FACT, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS - operate an active follow-up program oftarget-of-opportunity observations of neutrino alerts sent by IceCube. Thisprogram has two main components. One are the observations of known gamma-raysources around which a cluster of candidate neutrino events has been identifiedby IceCube (Gamma-ray Follow-Up, GFU). Second one is the follow-up of singlehigh-energy neutrino candidate events of potential astrophysical origin such asIceCube-170922A. GFU has been recently upgraded by IceCube in collaborationwith the IACT groups. We present here recent results from the IACT follow-upprograms of IceCube neutrino alerts and a description of the upgraded IceCubeGFU system.<br

Genome-wide association identifies nine common variants associated with fasting proinsulin levels and provides new insights into the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Proinsulin is a precursor of mature insulin and C-peptide. Higher circulating proinsulin levels are associated with impaired β-cell function, raised glucose levels, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of the insulin processing pathway could provide new insights about T2D pathophysiology. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We have conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association tests of ∼2.5 million genotyped or imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and fasting proinsulin levels in 10,701 nondiabetic adults of European ancestry, with follow-up of 23 loci in up to 16,378 individuals, using additive genetic models adjusted for age, sex, fasting insulin, and study-specific covariates. RESULTS: Nine SNPs at eight loci were associated with proinsulin levels (P < 5 × 10(-8)). Two loci (LARP6 and SGSM2) have not been previously related to metabolic traits, one (MADD) has been associated with fasting glucose, one (PCSK1) has been implicated in obesity, and four (TCF7L2, SLC30A8, VPS13C/C2CD4A/B, and ARAP1, formerly CENTD2) increase T2D risk. The proinsulin-raising allele of ARAP1 was associated with a lower fasting glucose (P = 1.7 × 10(-4)), improved β-cell function (P = 1.1 × 10(-5)), and lower risk of T2D (odds ratio 0.88; P = 7.8 × 10(-6)). Notably, PCSK1 encodes the protein prohormone convertase 1/3, the first enzyme in the insulin processing pathway. A genotype score composed of the nine proinsulin-raising alleles was not associated with coronary disease in two large case-control datasets. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified nine genetic variants associated with fasting proinsulin. Our findings illuminate the biology underlying glucose homeostasis and T2D development in humans and argue against a direct role of proinsulin in coronary artery disease pathogenesis

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Water in Utah: Institutional, Economic, and Political Options for Reform

Utah is one of the driest states in the country and also has one of the highest domestic per capita rates of water consumption. The Utah Department of Water Resources has projected that by 2050 the state’s demand for water will overtake the available supply of water. Dire predictions like this have been used to justify the building of large, expensive water projects. This paper argues that allowing markets to work will alleviate Utah’s water problems more efficiently. Utah’s long history of water development has resulted in a complex and fragmented system of water management. Regulations that require farmers to use their water or lose their water rights discourage conservation. Complex bureaucratic approval processes discourage water trading. These policies should be reformed to allow for more efficient allocation of water according to its most highly valued use. The way that water is priced in Utah does not reflect its true cost. Both municipal and agricultural water in Utah are subsidized through property taxes. Agricultural water is also subsidized through federal water projects including the Central Utah Project. Block pricing schemes for municipal water increase the price per gallon as a household uses more water. This connects the amount of water that consumers use more closely to the price consumers pay. Politics is also a major determinant of water policy. In 2015, a legislative audit found that the Utah Division of Water Resources was overestimating Utah\u27s water needs and underestimating Utah’s water supply. The division has used these exaggerated projections to justify building large, expensive water projects. The Bear River Development Project and the Lake Powell Pipeline are two proposed projects that will be expensive and potentially environmentally harmful. More sustainable and economical ways of managing Utah’s water include increasing the price to reflect cost and reducing or eliminating subsidies

Impediments to Business Development in the Navajo Nation

Since its foundation, the Navajo Nation has had little economic development and faces unemployment rates of nearly fifty percent. This raises a question: What are the impediments to business development within the Navajo Nation? We hypothesize that this lack of business development has been hindered by: increased red tape, as there are more than the normal number of processes for entrepreneurs to obtain a business license as a result of the dual nature of the tribal and federal governments; lack of property rights caused by communal land laws; and the local culture of dependency of federal assistance programs. We analyze the relationship between the time it takes to acquire a business license and the number of overall applicants, how the absence of property rights creates barriers to securing capital for use as collateral when applying for loans, and the inverse relationship between government dependency and starting a business. Using these variables, we compare Kayenta, a township within the Navajo Nation that has been granted municipality and political autonomy, with a small community within the reservation known as Monetezuma Creek. A case study of business owners in Kayenta compared to Montezuma Creek further illustrates conditions that hinder business development within the reservation