Optimal allocation of conservation effort among subpopulations of a threatened species: How important is patch quality?

Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most eases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinei Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species

Emergent Semiclassical Time in Quantum Gravity. I. Mechanical Models

Strategies intended to resolve the problem of time in quantum gravity by means of emergent or hidden timefunctions are considered in the arena of relational particle toy models. In situations with `heavy' and `light' degrees of freedom, two notions of emergent semiclassical WKB time emerge; these are furthermore equivalent to two notions of emergent classical `Leibniz--Mach--Barbour' time. I futhermore study the semiclassical approach, in a geometric phase formalism, extended to include linear constraints, and with particular care to make explicit those approximations and assumptions used. I propose a new iterative scheme for this in the cosmologically-motivated case with one heavy degree of freedom. I find that the usual semiclassical quantum cosmology emergence of time comes hand in hand with the emergence of other qualitatively significant terms, including back-reactions on the heavy subsystem and second time derivatives. I illustrate my analysis by taking it further for relational particle models with linearly-coupled harmonic oscillator potentials. As these examples are exactly soluble by means outside the semiclassical approach, they are additionally useful for testing the justifiability of some of the approximations and assumptions habitually made in the semiclassical approach to quantum cosmology. Finally, I contrast the emergent semiclassical timefunction with its hidden dilational Euler time counterpart.Comment: References Update

Phenomenology of the Lense-Thirring effect in the Solar System

Recent years have seen increasing efforts to directly measure some aspects of the general relativistic gravitomagnetic interaction in several astronomical scenarios in the solar system. After briefly overviewing the concept of gravitomagnetism from a theoretical point of view, we review the performed or proposed attempts to detect the Lense-Thirring effect affecting the orbital motions of natural and artificial bodies in the gravitational fields of the Sun, Earth, Mars and Jupiter. In particular, we will focus on the evaluation of the impact of several sources of systematic uncertainties of dynamical origin to realistically elucidate the present and future perspectives in directly measuring such an elusive relativistic effect.Comment: LaTex, 51 pages, 14 figures, 22 tables. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Science (ApSS). Some uncited references in the text now correctly quoted. One reference added. A footnote adde

Effects of Glyphosate and its Formulation, Roundup, on Reproduction in Zebrafish (Danio rerio)

This is an open access article that is freely available in ORE or from the publisher's web site. Please cite the published version.Copyright © 2014 American Chemical SocietyRoundup and its active ingredient glyphosate are among the most widely used herbicides worldwide and may contaminate surface waters. Research suggests both Roundup and glyphosate induce oxidative stress in fish and may also cause reproductive toxicity in mammalian systems. We aimed to investigate the reproductive effects of Roundup and glyphosate in fish and the potential associated mechanisms of toxicity. To do this, we conducted a 21-day exposure of breeding zebrafish (Danio rerio) to 0.01, 0.5, and 10 mg/L (glyphosate acid equivalent) Roundup and 10 mg/L glyphosate. 10 mg/L glyphosate reduced egg production but not fertilization rate in breeding colonies. Both 10 mg/L Roundup and glyphosate increased early stage embryo mortalities and premature hatching. However, exposure during embryogenesis alone did not increase embryo mortality, suggesting that this effect was caused primarily by exposure during gametogenesis. Transcript profiling of the gonads revealed 10 mg/L Roundup and glyphosate induced changes in the expression of cyp19a1 and esr1 in the ovary and hsd3b2, cat, and sod1 in the testis. Our results demonstrate that these chemicals cause reproductive toxicity in zebrafish, although only at high concentrations unlikely to occur in the environment, and likely mechanisms of toxicity include disruption of the steroidogenic biosynthesis pathway and oxidative stress.Natural Environment Research Counci

Training future generations to deliver evidence-based conservation and ecosystem management

1. To be effective, the next generation of conservation practitioners and managers need to be critical thinkers with a deep understanding of how to make evidence-based decisions and of the value of evidence synthesis. 2. If, as educators, we do not make these priorities a core part of what we teach, we are failing to prepare our students to make an effective contribution to conservation practice. 3. To help overcome this problem we have created open access online teaching materials in multiple languages that are stored in Applied Ecology Resources. So far, 117 educators from 23 countries have acknowledged the importance of this and are already teaching or about to teach skills in appraising or using evidence in conservation decision-making. This includes 145 undergraduate, postgraduate or professional development courses. 4. We call for wider teaching of the tools and skills that facilitate evidence-based conservation and also suggest that providing online teaching materials in multiple languages could be beneficial for improving global understanding of other subject areas.Peer reviewe

From spatial ecology to spatial epidemiology: Modeling spatial distributions of different cancer types with principal coordinates of neighbor matrices

Epidemiology and ecology share many fundamental research questions. Here we describe how principal coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNM), a method from spatial ecology, can be applied to spatial epidemiology. PCNM is based on geographical distances among sites and can be applied to any set of sites providing a good coverage of a study area. In the present study, PCNM eigenvectors corresponding to positive autocorrelation were used as explanatory variables in linear regressions to model incidences of eight most common cancer types in Finnish municipalities (n = 320). The dataset was provided by the Finnish Cancer Registry and it included altogether 615,839 cases between 1953 and 2010. Results: PCNM resulted in 165 vectors with a positive eigenvalue. The first PCNM vector corresponded to the wavelength of hundreds of kilometers as it contrasted two main subareas so that municipalities located in southwestern Finland had the highest positive site scores and those located in midwestern Finland had the highest negative scores in that vector. Correspondingly, the 165thPCNM vector indicated variation mainly between the two small municipalities located in South Finland. The vectors explained 13 - 58% of the spatial variation in cancer incidences. The number of outliers having standardized residual > |3| was very low, one to six per model, and even lower, zero to two per model, according to Chauvenet's criterion. The spatial variation of prostate cancer was best captured (adjusted r 2= 0.579). Conclusions: PCNM can act as a complementary method to causal modeling to achieve a better understanding of the spatial structure of both the response and explanatory variables, and to assess the spatial importance of unmeasured explanatory factors. PCNM vectors can be used as proxies for demographics and causative agents to deal with autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and confounding variables. PCNM may help to extend spatial epidemiology to areas with limited availability of registers, improve cost-effectiveness, and aid in identifying unknown causative agents, and predict future trends in disease distributions and incidences. A large advantage of using PCNM is that it can create statistically valid reflectors of real predictors for disease incidence models with only little resources and background information

Marine mammals and Good Environmental Status: Science, Policy and Society; Challenges and Opportunities

The Marine Strategy Framework Directive has become the key instrument for marine conservation in European seas. We review its implementation, focusing on cetacean biodiversity, using the examples of Spain and the Regional Seas Convention, OSPAR. The MSFD has been widely criticised for legal vagueness, lack of coordination, uncertainty about funding, and poor governance; its future role within EU Integrated Maritime Policy remains unclear. Nevertheless, the first stages of the process have run broadly to schedule: current status, environmental objectives and indicators have been described and the design of monitoring programmes is in progress, drawing on experience with other environmental legislation. The MSFD is now entering its critical phase, with lack of funding for monitoring, limited scope for management interventions, and uncertainty about how conservation objectives will be reconciled with the needs of other marine and maritime sectors, being among the main concerns. Clarity in governance, about the roles of the EU, Member States, Regional Seas Conventions and stakeholders, is needed to ensure success. However, even if (as seems likely) good environmental status cannot be achieved by 2020, significant steps will have been taken to place environmental sustainability centre-stage in the development of Integrated Maritime Policy for EU seas.Postprin

Training future generations to deliver evidence-based conservation and ecosystem management

Data availability statement: No data was used in this study.Peer review: The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1002/2688-8319.12032.Supporting Information: eso312032-sup-0001-SuppMat.docx (21.1 KB) available at: https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1002%2F2688-8319.12032&file=eso312032-sup-0001-SuppMat.docx. Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.Copyright © 2021 The Authors. 1. To be effective, the next generation of conservation practitioners and managers need to be critical thinkers with a deep understanding of how to make evidence-based decisions and of the value of evidence synthesis. 2. If, as educators, we do not make these priorities a core part of what we teach, we are failing to prepare our students to make an effective contribution to conservation practice. 3. To help overcome this problem we have created open access online teaching materials in multiple languages that are stored in Applied Ecology Resources. So far, 117 educators from 23 countries have acknowledged the importance of this and are already teaching or about to teach skills in appraising or using evidence in conservation decision-making. This includes 145 undergraduate, postgraduate or professional development courses. 4. We call for wider teaching of the tools and skills that facilitate evidence-based conservation and also suggest that providing online teaching materials in multiple languages could be beneficial for improving global understanding of other subject areas. Making informed conservation and ecosystem management choices is based upon a sound understanding of the relevant evidence. There is an increasing wealth of conservation science available, and access to this is becoming easier. But, are conservation practitioners being trained to utilize this information? In conservation, decision-making is often based upon past experience or expert knowledge, as opposed to the full body of scientific literature (e.g., Pullin, Knight, Stone, & Charman, 2004; Rafidimanantsoa, Poudyal, Ramamonjisoa, & Jones, 2018). The failure to include scientific evidence in decision-making has the potential to reduce the effectiveness of management, or even lead to detrimental actions being undertaken (Walsh, Dicks, & Sutherland, 2015). Evidence-based conservation (EBC) seeks to avoid this by providing tools to facilitate and inform decision-making. To do this, scientific evidence is collated and critically appraised for its quality and relevance, and integrated with other knowledge, experience, values and costs (Sutherland, Pullin, Dolman, & Knight, 2004). Wider adoption of EBC requires conservation professionals to be trained in its principles and taught how to use it to inform conservation decision-making.MAVA Foundation; Arcadia Fund