Rational Expectations in the Classroom: A Learning Activity

The author describes a technique whereby students truthfully reveal their perceptions regarding the difficulty of an assignment. After completing the assignment, each student guesses his/her class' average score on the assignment. The student is informed that if his/her guess is within one percentage point of the actual class average, then he/she will earn two extra points on the assignment. This mechanism gives each student the incentive to truly express his/her opinion regarding the difficulty of the assignment. The author provides evidence that students, as a group, are quite adept at guessing the class average. In addition to its usefulness in explaining the rational expectations hypothesis, this activity is helpful for assessing the students' perceptions of the difficulty of particular assignments.teaching practices, rational expectations

An Exploration of Market Efficiency and the Marginal Trader Hypothesis

This research explores one possible explanation for market efficiency, the Marginal Trader Hypothesis (MTH), which holds that a small group of active and well-informed traders are responsible for steering market price to efficient levels. We test the appropriateness of the MTH by conducting a series of experimental asset markets; information regarding the asset’s value was introduced to the markets so as to evaluate the impact on market efficiency and the role of the insider in steering market price. The results indicate that traders conformed to the median of three possible values, though prices failed to converge to a Rational Expectations equilibrium

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Dysfunction of Nrf-2 in CF Epithelia Leads to Excess Intracellular H2O2 and Inflammatory Cytokine Production

Cystic fibrosis is characterized by recurring pulmonary exacerbations that lead to the deterioration of lung function and eventual lung failure. Excessive inflammatory responses by airway epithelia have been linked to the overproduction of the inflammatory cytokine IL-6 and IL-8. The mechanism by which this occurs is not fully understood, but normal IL-1β mediated activation of the production of these cytokines occurs via H2O2 dependent signaling. Therefore, we speculated that CFTR dysfunction causes alterations in the regulation of steady state H2O2. We found significantly elevated levels of H2O2 in three cultured epithelial cell models of CF, one primary and two immortalized. Increases in H2O2 heavily contributed to the excessive IL-6 and IL-8 production in CF epithelia. Proteomic analysis of three in vitro and two in vivo models revealed a decrease in antioxidant proteins that regulate H2O2 processing, by ≥2 fold in CF vs. matched normal controls. When cells are stimulated, differential expression in CF versus normal is enhanced; corresponding to an increase in H2O2 mediated production of IL-6 and IL-8. The cause of this redox imbalance is a decrease by ∼70% in CF cells versus normal in the expression and activity of the transcription factor Nrf-2. Inhibition of CFTR function in normal cells produced this phenotype, while N-acetyl cysteine, selenium, an activator of Nrf-2, and the overexpression of Nrf-2 all normalized H2O2 processing and decreased IL-6 and IL-8 to normal levels, in CF cells. We conclude that a paradoxical decrease in Nrf-2 driven antioxidant responses in CF epithelia results in an increase in steady state H2O2, which in turn contributes to the overproduction of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-6 and IL-8. Treatment with antioxidants can ameliorate exaggerated cytokine production without affecting normal responses

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

RESULTS FROM A SIMPLE PREDICTION CONTEST

In a prediction contest participants compete for a prize by submitting guesses regarding an unknown variable; the winner of the contest is the participant who submits the most accurate guess. In this paper the results of a simple prediction contest are reported. In the contest, certain members of the administration of a medium-sized university were asked to predict the number of freshmen deposits the university would receive by its spring deadline. Contest participants were told that the contest participant who submitted the most accurate guess would receive a $100 prize. With this incentive-compatible mechanism in place, the average guess from the contest was used as a forecast for the number of deposits. This forecast was at least as accurate as any other simple forecast method