A Temperature Conditioned Markov Chain Model for Predicting the Dynamics of Mosquito Vectors of Disease

Understanding and predicting mosquito population dynamics is crucial for gaining insight into the abundance of arthropod disease vectors and for the design of effective vector control strategies. In this work, a climate-conditioned Markov chain (CMC) model was developed and applied for the first time to predict the dynamics of vectors of important medical diseases. Temporal changes in mosquito population profiles were generated to simulate the probabilities of a high population impact. The simulated transition probabilities of the mosquito populations achieved from the trained model are very near to the observed data transitions that have been used to parameterize and validate the model. Thus, the CMC model satisfactorily describes the temporal evolution of the mosquito population process. In general, our numerical results, when temperature is considered as the driver of change, indicate that it is more likely for the population system to move into a state of high population level when the former is a state of a lower population level than the opposite. Field data on frequencies of successive mosquito population levels, which were not used for the data inferred MC modeling, were assembled to obtain an empirical intensity transition matrix and the frequencies observed. Our findings match to a certain degree the empirical results in which the probabilities follow analogous patterns while no significant differences were observed between the transition matrices of the CMC model and the validation data (ChiSq = 14.58013, df = 24, p = 0.9324451). The proposed modeling approach is a valuable eco-epidemiological study. Moreover, compared to traditional Markov chains, the benefit of the current CMC model is that it takes into account the stochastic conditional properties of ecological-related climate variables. The current modeling approach could save costs and time in establishing vector eradication programs and mosquito surveillance programs

Costs and Complications of Single Stage Fixation Versus Two-Stage Treatment of Select Bicondylar Tibial Plateau Fractures

Objectives: To determine the differences in costs and complications in patients with bicondylar tibial plateau (BTP) fractures treated with one stage definitive fixation compared to two stage fixation following initial spanning external fixation. Design: Retrospective cohort study Setting: Level one trauma center Patients/Participants: Patients with OTA 41-C (Schatzker 6) treated with open reduction internal fixation (ORIF). Intervention: Definitive treatment with ORIF either acutely (one stage) or delayed following initial spanning external fixation (two stage). Main Outcome Measures: Wound healing complications, implant costs, hospital charges, PROMIS outcome measures. Results: 105 patients were identified over a three-year period, of which 52 met inclusion criteria. There were 28 patients in the One-Stage group and 24 patients in the Two-Stage group. Mean follow-up was 21.8 months, and 87% of patients had at least 12 months follow-up. The mean number of days to definitive fixation was 1.2 in the One-Stage group and 7.8 in the Two-Stage group. There were no differences between groups with respect to wound healing or any other surgery-related complications. Functional outcomes (PROMIS) were similar between groups. Mean implant cost in the Two-Stage group was $10,821 greater than the One-Stage group, mostly due to the costs of external fixation. Median hospital inpatient charges in the Two-Stage group exceeded the One-Stage group by over$68,000 for all BTP fractures and by $61,000 for isolated BTP fractures. Conclusions: Early single stage treatment of BTP fractures is cost effective, and is not associated with a higher complication rate than two stage treatment in appropriately selected patients. Level of Evidence: Level III- Retrospective cohort stud

Locking Plate Fixation in a Series of Bicondylar Tibial Plateau Fractures Raises Treatment Costs Without Clinical Benefit

Objectives: To compare outcomes and costs between locking and nonlocking constructs in the treatment of bicondylar tibial plateau (BTP) fractures. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Level 1 academic trauma center. Patients: All patients that presented with complete articular, BTP fractures (AO/OTA 41-C and Schatzker 6) between 2013-2015 were screened (n=112). Patients treated with a mode of fixation other than plate-and-screw were excluded. 56 patients with a minimum follow-up of 12 months were included in the analysis. Intervention: Operative fixation of BTP fractures with locking (n=29) or nonlocking (n=27) implants. Main outcome measurements: Implant cost, patient reported outcomes (PROMIS physical function and pain interference), clinical, and radiographic outcomes. Results: There were no differences between the two groups with respect to demographics, injury characteristics, radiographic outcomes (change in alignment) or clinical outcomes (PROMIS, reoperation, nonunion, infection). Implant costs were significantly greater in the locking group compared to the nonlocking group (mean L $4453; mean NL$2569; p<0.01). Conclusions: This study demonstrated improved value of treatment (less cost with no difference in clinical outcome) with nonlocking implants for bicondylar tibial plateau fractures when dual plate fixation strategies are performed. Level of Evidence: Therapeutic III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence

Búsqueda de los virus del nilo occidental, de la encefalitis de san Luis y de la encefalitis equina venezolana en mosquitos de Paraguay – resultados preliminares.

El objetivo general del proyecto fue determinar la presencia de arbovirus encefalíticos (VEEV, WNV y SLEV) en poblaciones humanas y de mosquitos de Paraguay.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Búsqueda de virus encefalíticos (wnv, slev y veev) en sueros de pacientes con sospecha de síndrome febril agudo y trastornos neurológicos.

Los virus del Nilo Occidental (WNV), de la Encefalitis de San Luis (SLEV) y de la Encefalitis Equina Venezolana (VEEV) pueden producir enfermedades febriles agudas que podrían ser confundidas con el dengue u otras patologías; también pueden causar trastornos neurológicos graves. Estos virus todavía no han sido detectados en nuestro país, sin embargo, existen reportes de circulación de los mismos en países limítrofes. El Paraguay cuenta con las condiciones favorables para propiciar el mantenimiento del ciclo de transmisión de estos virus, por lo que se considera de suma importancia el estudio de ellos en pacientes con afecciones previamente mencionadas.CONACYT - Consejo Nacional de Ciencias y TecnologíaPROCIENCI

Safety and immunogenicity of the protein-based PHH-1V compared to BNT162b2 as a heterologous SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccine in adults vaccinated against COVID-19 : a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, non-inferiority phase IIb trial

A SARS-CoV-2 protein-based heterodimer vaccine, PHH-1V, has been shown to be safe and well-tolerated in healthy young adults in a first-in-human, Phase I/IIa study dose-escalation trial. Here, we report the interim results of the Phase IIb HH-2, where the immunogenicity and safety of a heterologous booster with PHH-1V is assessed versus a homologous booster with BNT162b2 at 14, 28 and 98 days after vaccine administration. The HH-2 study is an ongoing multicentre, randomised, active-controlled, double-blind, non-inferiority Phase IIb trial, where participants 18 years or older who had received two doses of BNT162b2 were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive a booster dose of vaccine-either heterologous (PHH-1V group) or homologous (BNT162b2 group)-in 10 centres in Spain. Eligible subjects were allocated to treatment stratified by age group (18-64 versus ≥65 years) with approximately 10% of the sample enrolled in the older age group. The primary endpoints were humoral immunogenicity measured by changes in levels of neutralizing antibodies (PBNA) against the ancestral Wuhan-Hu-1 strain after the PHH-1V or the BNT162b2 boost, and the safety and tolerability of PHH-1V as a boost. The secondary endpoints were to compare changes in levels of neutralizing antibodies against different variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the T-cell responses towards the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein peptides. The exploratory endpoint was to assess the number of subjects with SARS-CoV-2 infections ≥14 days after PHH-1V booster. This study is ongoing and is registered with , . From 15 November 2021, 782 adults were randomly assigned to PHH-1V (n = 522) or BNT162b2 (n = 260) boost vaccine groups. The geometric mean titre (GMT) ratio of neutralizing antibodies on days 14, 28 and 98, shown as BNT162b2 active control versus PHH-1V, was, respectively, 1.68 (p < 0.0001), 1.31 (p = 0.0007) and 0.86 (p = 0.40) for the ancestral Wuhan-Hu-1 strain; 0.62 (p < 0.0001), 0.65 (p < 0.0001) and 0.56 (p = 0.003) for the Beta variant; 1.01 (p = 0.92), 0.88 (p = 0.11) and 0.52 (p = 0.0003) for the Delta variant; and 0.59 (p ≤ 0.0001), 0.66 (p < 0.0001) and 0.57 (p = 0.0028) for the Omicron BA.1 variant. Additionally, PHH-1V as a booster dose induced a significant increase of CD4 + and CD8 + T-cells expressing IFN-γ on day 14. There were 458 participants who experienced at least one adverse event (89.3%) in the PHH-1V and 238 (94.4%) in the BNT162b2 group. The most frequent adverse events were injection site pain (79.7% and 89.3%), fatigue (27.5% and 42.1%) and headache (31.2 and 40.1%) for the PHH-1V and the BNT162b2 groups, respectively. A total of 52 COVID-19 cases occurred from day 14 post-vaccination (10.14%) for the PHH-1V group and 30 (11.90%) for the BNT162b2 group (p = 0.45), and none of the subjects developed severe COVID-19. Our interim results from the Phase IIb HH-2 trial show that PHH-1V as a heterologous booster vaccine, when compared to BNT162b2, although it does not reach a non-inferior neutralizing antibody response against the Wuhan-Hu-1 strain at days 14 and 28 after vaccination, it does so at day 98. PHH-1V as a heterologous booster elicits a superior neutralizing antibody response against the previous circulating Beta and the currently circulating Omicron BA.1 SARS-CoV-2 variants in all time points assessed, and for the Delta variant on day 98 as well. Moreover, the PHH-1V boost also induces a strong and balanced T-cell response. Concerning the safety profile, subjects in the PHH-1V group report significantly fewer adverse events than those in the BNT162b2 group, most of mild intensity, and both vaccine groups present comparable COVID-19 breakthrough cases, none of them severe. HIPRA SCIENTIFIC, S.L.U

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good