Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number

Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic reproduction number, R0, provides a powerful tool with which to assess the level of risk posed by a disease. In this paper, we compute R0 for BTV in a population comprising two host species, cattle and sheep. Estimates for each parameter which influences R0 were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. Moreover, explicit temperature dependence was included for those parameters for which it had been quantified. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients identified temperature, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector to host ratio as being most important in determining the magnitude of R0. The importance of temperature reflects the fact that it influences many processes involved in the transmission of BTV and, in particular, the biting rate, the extrinsic incubation period and the vector mortality rate

Effects of chlorinated organics from wastewater treatment on algal growth

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47982/1/128_2005_Article_BF01770039.pd

Accretion, Outflows, and Winds of Magnetized Stars

Many types of stars have strong magnetic fields that can dynamically influence the flow of circumstellar matter. In stars with accretion disks, the stellar magnetic field can truncate the inner disk and determine the paths that matter can take to flow onto the star. These paths are different in stars with different magnetospheres and periods of rotation. External field lines of the magnetosphere may inflate and produce favorable conditions for outflows from the disk-magnetosphere boundary. Outflows can be particularly strong in the propeller regime, wherein a star rotates more rapidly than the inner disk. Outflows may also form at the disk-magnetosphere boundary of slowly rotating stars, if the magnetosphere is compressed by the accreting matter. In isolated, strongly magnetized stars, the magnetic field can influence formation and/or propagation of stellar wind outflows. Winds from low-mass, solar-type stars may be either thermally or magnetically driven, while winds from massive, luminous O and B type stars are radiatively driven. In all of these cases, the magnetic field influences matter flow from the stars and determines many observational properties. In this chapter we review recent studies of accretion, outflows, and winds of magnetized stars with a focus on three main topics: (1) accretion onto magnetized stars; (2) outflows from the disk-magnetosphere boundary; and (3) winds from isolated massive magnetized stars. We show results obtained from global magnetohydrodynamic simulations and, in a number of cases compare global simulations with observations.Comment: 60 pages, 44 figure

γ -ray spectroscopy of astrophysically important states in Ca 39

Background: Nova explosions synthesize elements up to A≃40, and discrepancies exist between calculated and observed abundances of Ar and Ca created in the explosion. The K38(p,γ)Ca39 reaction rate has been shown to be influential on these isotopic abundances at the endpoint of nova nucleosynthesis. The energies of the three most important resonances, corresponding to Jπ=5/2+ excited states in the Ca39 nucleus above the proton separation threshold, are uncertain and one has been measured with conflicting values [Er=679(2) versus Er=701(2) keV] in previous experiments. Purpose: Reducing the uncertainties on the resonance energies would allow for a better understanding of the reaction rate. To improve these uncertainties, we searched for γ rays from the depopulation of the corresponding excited states in Ca39. Methods: We report a new measurement of these resonance energies via the observation of previously unobserved γ-ray transitions. These transitions were observed by studying the Ca40(3He,αγ)Ca39 reaction with Gammasphere ORRUBA Dual Detectors for Experimental Structure Studies (GODDESS). The updated resonance energies were then used to calculate the K38(p,γ)Ca39 reaction rate and assess its uncertainties. Results: In total, 23 new transitions were found, including three γ-ray transitions corresponding to the three Jπ=5/2+ states of astrophysical interest at energies of 6156.2(16), 6268.8(22), and 6470.8(19) keV. These correspond to resonance energies in the K38(p,γ)Ca39 reaction of 386(2), 498(2), and 701(2) keV. Conclusions: Updated K38(p,γ)Ca39 reaction rate calculations show a reduced upper limit at nova temperatures. However, the lower-than-previously-measured energy of the 498-keV resonance and uncertainty in its resonance strength increases the upper limit of the rate close to previous estimates at 0.4 GK

New γ -ray transitions observed in Ne 19 with implications for the O 15 (α,γ) Ne 19 reaction rate

The O15(α,γ)Ne19 reaction is responsible for breakout from the hot CNO cycle in type I x-ray bursts. Understanding the properties of resonances between Ex=4 and 5 MeV in Ne19 is crucial in the calculation of this reaction rate. The spins and parities of these states are well known, with the exception of the 4.14- and 4.20-MeV states, which have adopted spin-parities of 9/2- and 7/2-, respectively. γ-ray transitions from these states were studied using triton-γ-γ coincidences from the F19(He3,tγ)Ne19 reaction measured with the GODDESS (Gammasphere ORRUBA Dual Detectors for Experimental Structure Studies) at Argonne National Laboratory. The observed transitions from the 4.14- and 4.20-MeV states provide strong evidence that the Jπ values are actually 7/2- and 9/2-, respectively. These assignments are consistent with the values in the F19 mirror nucleus and in contrast to previously accepted assignments

Detector Description and Performance for the First Coincidence Observations between LIGO and GEO

For 17 days in August and September 2002, the LIGO and GEO interferometer gravitational wave detectors were operated in coincidence to produce their first data for scientific analysis. Although the detectors were still far from their design sensitivity levels, the data can be used to place better upper limits on the flux of gravitational waves incident on the earth than previous direct measurements. This paper describes the instruments and the data in some detail, as a companion to analysis papers based on the first data.Comment: 41 pages, 9 figures 17 Sept 03: author list amended, minor editorial change

Database of diazotrophs in global ocean: abundance, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates

Marine N2 fixing microorganisms, termed diazotrophs, are a key functional group in marine pelagic ecosystems. The biological fixation of dinitrogen (N2) to bioavailable nitrogen provides an important new source of nitrogen for pelagic marine ecosystems and influences primary productivity and organic matter export to the deep ocean. As one of a series of efforts to collect biomass and rates specific to different phytoplankton functional groups, we have constructed a database on diazotrophic organisms in the global pelagic upper ocean by compiling about 12 000 direct field measurements of cyanobacterial diazotroph abundances (based on microscopic cell counts or qPCR assays targeting the nifH genes) and N2 fixation rates. Biomass conversion factors are estimated based on cell sizes to convert abundance data to diazotrophic biomass. The database is limited spatially, lacking large regions of the ocean especially in the Indian Ocean. The data are approximately log-normal distributed, and large variances exist in most sub-databases with non-zero values differing 5 to 8 orders of magnitude. Reporting the geometric mean and the range of one geometric standard error below and above the geometric mean, the pelagic N2 fixation rate in the global ocean is estimated to be 62 (52–73) Tg N yr?1 and the pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean is estimated to be 2.1 (1.4–3.1) Tg C from cell counts and to 89 (43–150) Tg C from nifH-based abundances. Reporting the arithmetic mean and one standard error instead, these three global estimates are 140 ± 9.2 Tg N yr?1, 18 ± 1.8 Tg C and 590 ± 70 Tg C, respectively. Uncertainties related to biomass conversion factors can change the estimate of geometric mean pelagic diazotrophic biomass in the global ocean by about ±70%. It was recently established that the most commonly applied method used to measure N2 fixation has underestimated the true rates. As a result, one can expect that future rate measurements will shift the mean N2 fixation rate upward and may result in significantly higher estimates for the global N2 fixation. The evolving database can nevertheless be used to study spatial and temporal distributions and variations of marine N2 fixation, to validate geochemical estimates and to parameterize and validate biogeochemical models, keeping in mind that future rate measurements may rise in the future. The database is stored in PANGAEA (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.774851)

Identification of independent association signals and putative functional variants for breast cancer risk through fine-scale mapping of the 12p11 locus.

BACKGROUND: Multiple recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs10771399, at 12p11 that is associated with breast cancer risk. METHOD: We performed a fine-scale mapping study of a 700 kb region including 441 genotyped and more than 1300 imputed genetic variants in 48,155 cases and 43,612 controls of European descent, 6269 cases and 6624 controls of East Asian descent and 1116 cases and 932 controls of African descent in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC; http://bcac.ccge.medschl.cam.ac.uk/ ), and in 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA). Stepwise regression analyses were performed to identify independent association signals. Data from the Encyclopedia of DNA Elements project (ENCODE) and the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were used for functional annotation. RESULTS: Analysis of data from European descendants found evidence for four independent association signals at 12p11, represented by rs7297051 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.09, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.12; P = 3 × 10(-9)), rs805510 (OR = 1.08, 95 % CI = 1.04-1.12, P = 2 × 10(-5)), and rs1871152 (OR = 1.04, 95 % CI = 1.02-1.06; P = 2 × 10(-4)) identified in the general populations, and rs113824616 (P = 7 × 10(-5)) identified in the meta-analysis of BCAC ER-negative cases and BRCA1 mutation carriers. SNPs rs7297051, rs805510 and rs113824616 were also associated with breast cancer risk at P < 0.05 in East Asians, but none of the associations were statistically significant in African descendants. Multiple candidate functional variants are located in putative enhancer sequences. Chromatin interaction data suggested that PTHLH was the likely target gene of these enhancers. Of the six variants with the strongest evidence of potential functionality, rs11049453 was statistically significantly associated with the expression of PTHLH and its nearby gene CCDC91 at P < 0.05. CONCLUSION: This study identified four independent association signals at 12p11 and revealed potentially functional variants, providing additional insights into the underlying biological mechanism(s) for the association observed between variants at 12p11 and breast cancer risk.UK funding includes Cancer Research UK and NIH.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from BioMed Central via http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13058-016-0718-