An Operational Statistical Scheme for Tropical Cyclone-Induced Rainfall Forecast

Nonparametric methods are used in this study to analyze and predict short-term rainfall due to tropical cyclones (TCs) in a coastal meteorological station. All 427 TCs during 1953–2011, which made landfall along the Southeast China coast with a distance less than 700 km to a certain meteorological station, Shenzhen, are analyzed and grouped according to their landfalling direction, distance, and intensity. The corresponding daily rainfall records at Shenzhen Meteorological Station (SMS) during TCs landfalling period (a couple of days before and after TC landfall) are collected. The maximum daily rainfall (R24) and maximum 3-day accumulative rainfall (R72) records at SMS for each TC category are analyzed by a nonparametric statistical method, percentile estimation. The results are plotted by statistical boxplot, expressing in the probability of precipitation. The performance of the statistical boxplots was evaluated to forecast the short-term rainfall at SMS during the TC seasons in 2012 and 2013. The results show that the boxplot scheme can be used as a valuable reference to predict the short-term rainfall at SMS due to TCs landfalling along the Southeast China coast

Herbivorous turtle ants obtain essential nutrients from a conserved nitrogen-recycling gut microbiome.

Nitrogen acquisition is a major challenge for herbivorous animals, and the repeated origins of herbivory across the ants have raised expectations that nutritional symbionts have shaped their diversification. Direct evidence for N provisioning by internally housed symbionts is rare in animals; among the ants, it has been documented for just one lineage. In this study we dissect functional contributions by bacteria from a conserved, multi-partite gut symbiosis in herbivorous Cephalotes ants through in vivo experiments, metagenomics, and in vitro assays. Gut bacteria recycle urea, and likely uric acid, using recycled N to synthesize essential amino acids that are acquired by hosts in substantial quantities. Specialized core symbionts of 17 studied Cephalotes species encode the pathways directing these activities, and several recycle N in vitro. These findings point to a highly efficient N economy, and a nutritional mutualism preserved for millions of years through the derived behaviors and gut anatomy of Cephalotes ants

Association of untargeted urinary metabolomics and lung cancer risk among never-smoking women in China

Importance Chinese women have the highest rate of lung cancer among female never-smokers in the world, and the etiology is poorly understood. Objective To assess the association between metabolomics and lung cancer risk among never-smoking women. Design, Setting, and Participants This nested case-control study included 275 never-smoking female patients with lung cancer and 289 never-smoking cancer-free control participants from the prospective Shanghai Women’s Health Study recruited from December 28, 1996, to May 23, 2000. Validated food frequency questionnaires were used for the collection of dietary information. Metabolomic analysis was conducted from November 13, 2015, to January 6, 2016. Data analysis was conducted from January 6, 2016, to November 29, 2018. Exposures Untargeted ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomic profiles were characterized using prediagnosis urine samples. A total of 39 416 metabolites were measured. Main Outcomes and Measures Incident lung cancer. Results Among the 564 women, those who developed lung cancer (275 participants; median [interquartile range] age, 61.0 [52-65] years) and those who did not develop lung cancer (289 participants; median [interquartile range] age, 62.0 [53-66] years) at follow-up (median [interquartile range] follow-up, 10.9 [9.0-11.7] years) were similar in terms of their secondhand smoke exposure, history of respiratory diseases, and body mass index. A peak metabolite, identified as 5-methyl-2-furoic acid, was significantly associated with lower lung cancer risk (odds ratio, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.46-0.72]; P < .001; false discovery rate = 0.039). Furthermore, this peak was weakly correlated with self-reported dietary soy intake (ρ = 0.21; P < .001). Increasing tertiles of this metabolite were associated with lower lung cancer risk (in comparison with first tertile, odds ratio for second tertile, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.34-0.80]; and odds ratio for third tertile, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.30-0.70]), and the association was consistent across different histological subtypes and follow-up times. Additionally, metabolic pathway analysis found several systemic biological alterations that were associated with lung cancer risk, including 1-carbon metabolism, nucleotide metabolism, oxidative stress, and inflammation. Conclusions and Relevance This prospective study of the untargeted urinary metabolome and lung cancer among never-smoking women in China provides support for the hypothesis that soy-based metabolites are associated with lower lung cancer risk in never-smoking women and suggests that biological processes linked to air pollution may be associated with higher lung cancer risk in this population

Author Correction: Herbivorous turtle ants obtain essential nutrients from a conserved nitrogen-recycling gut microbiome.

The originally published version of the Supplementary Information file associated with this Article contained an error in Supplementary Figure 3. Panel b was inadvertently replaced with a duplicate of panel a. The error has now been fixed and the corrected version of the Supplementary Information PDF is available to download from the HTML version of the Article

Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: A systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background: As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations. Results: The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, t

The burden of unintentional drowning: Global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

__Background:__ Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study's objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017. __Methods:__ Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning. __Results:__ Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes. __Conclusions:__ There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low-and middle-income countries

Search for strong gravity in multijet final states produced in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV using the ATLAS detector at the LHC

A search is conducted for new physics in multijet final states using 3.6 inverse femtobarns of data from proton-proton collisions at √s = 13TeV taken at the CERN Large Hadron Collider with the ATLAS detector. Events are selected containing at least three jets with scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT) greater than 1TeV. No excess is seen at large HT and limits are presented on new physics: models which produce final states containing at least three jets and having cross sections larger than 1.6 fb with HT > 5.8 TeV are excluded. Limits are also given in terms of new physics models of strong gravity that hypothesize additional space-time dimensions

Measurement of the correlation between flow harmonics of different order in lead-lead collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Correlations between the elliptic or triangular flow coefficients vm (m=2 or 3) and other flow harmonics vn (n=2 to 5) are measured using √sNN=2.76 TeV Pb+Pb collision data collected in 2010 by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 7 μb−1. The vm−vn correlations are measured in midrapidity as a function of centrality, and, for events within the same centrality interval, as a function of event ellipticity or triangularity defined in a forward rapidity region. For events within the same centrality interval, v3 is found to be anticorrelated with v2 and this anticorrelation is consistent with similar anticorrelations between the corresponding eccentricities, ε2 and ε3. However, it is observed that v4 increases strongly with v2, and v5 increases strongly with both v2 and v3. The trend and strength of the vm−vn correlations for n=4 and 5 are found to disagree with εm−εn correlations predicted by initial-geometry models. Instead, these correlations are found to be consistent with the combined effects of a linear contribution to vn and a nonlinear term that is a function of v22 or of v2v3, as predicted by hydrodynamic models. A simple two-component fit is used to separate these two contributions. The extracted linear and nonlinear contributions to v4 and v5 are found to be consistent with previously measured event-plane correlations

Measurement of jet charge in dijet events from √s = 8 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

The momentum-weighted sum of the charges of tracks associated to a jet is sensitive to the charge of the initiating quark or gluon. This paper presents a measurement of the distribution of momentum-weighted sums, called jet charge, in dijet events using 20.3 fb−¹ of data recorded with the ATLAS detector at √s = 8 TeV in pp collisions at the LHC. The jet charge distribution is unfolded to remove distortions from detector effects and the resulting particle-level distribution is compared with several models. The pT dependence of the jet charge distribution average and standard deviation are compared to predictions obtained with several leading-order and next-to-leading-order parton distribution functions. The data are also compared to different Monte Carlo simulations of QCD dijet production using various settings of the free parameters within these models. The chosen value of the strong coupling constant used to calculate gluon radiation is found to have a significant impact on the predicted jet charge. There is evidence for a pT dependence of the jet charge distribution for a given jet flavor. In agreement with perturbative QCD predictions, the data show that the average jet charge of quark-initiated jets decreases in magnitude as the energy of the jet increases