Prediction of second neurological attack in patients with clinically isolated syndrome using support vector machines

The aim of this study is to predict the conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to clinically definite multiple sclerosis using support vector machines. The two groups of converters and non-converters are classified using features that were calculated from baseline data of 73 patients. The data consists of standard magnetic resonance images, binary lesion masks, and clinical and demographic information. 15 features were calculated and all combinations of them were iteratively tested for their predictive capacity using polynomial kernels and radial basis functions with leave-one-out cross-validation. The accuracy of this prediction is up to 86.4% with a sensitivity and specificity in the same range indicating that this is a feasible approach for the prediction of a second clinical attack in patients with clinically isolated syndromes, and that the chosen features are appropriate. The two features gender and location of onset lesions have been used in all feature combinations leading to a high accuracy suggesting that they are highly predictive. However, it is necessary to add supporting features to maximise the accuracy. © 2013 IEEE

Biodiversity - Confronting amphibian declines and extinctions

Stopping further global losses of amphibian populations and species requires an unprecedented conservation response

From A Study of War to peace research: some criteria and strategies

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67729/2/10.1177_002200277001400416.pd

What Has Nonviolence Got To Do With The EU?

Nonviolence has an established tradition in several disciplines, including political theory, international relations and political science. But its potential for the European Union (EU) has not been appraised yet. Thus, we set out to explore nonviolence as an analytical and normative framework for the study of the EU. At the outset, we introduce nonviolence and define our approach to this concept. We then apply our analytical and normative framework to three critical issues concerning the nature of EU power, the democratic deficit and the narrative of integration. We find that nonviolence re‐defines the core dimensions of power and democracy, and imagines the EU in non‐state‐morphic ways, situating praxis at the roots of the integration process and its narrative

Interobserver agreement for the ATS/ERS/JRS/ALAT criteria for a UIP pattern on CT.

OBJECTIVES: To establish the level of observer variation for the current ATS/ERS/JRS/ALAT criteria for a diagnosis of usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) on CT among a large group of thoracic radiologists of varying levels of experience. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 112 observers (96 of whom were thoracic radiologists) categorised CTs of 150 consecutive patients with fibrotic lung disease using the ATS/ERS/JRS/ALAT CT criteria for a UIP pattern (3 categories--UIP, possibly UIP and inconsistent with UIP). The presence of honeycombing, traction bronchiectasis and emphysema was also scored using a 3-point scale (definitely present, possibly present, absent). Observer agreement for the UIP categorisation and for the 3 CT patterns in the entAUe observer group and in subgroups stratified by observer experience, were evaluated. RESULTS: Interobserver agreement across the diagnosis category scores among the 112 observers was moderate, ranging from 0.48 (IQR 0.18) for general radiologists to 0.52 (IQR 0.20) for thoracic radiologists of 10-20 years' experience. A binary score for UIP versus possible or inconsistent with UIP was examined. Observer agreement for this binary score was only moderate. No significant differences in agreement levels were identified when the CTs were stratified according to multidisciplinary team (MDT) diagnosis or patient age or when observers were categorised according to experience. Observer agreement for each of honeycombing, traction bronchiectasis and emphysema were 0.59+/-0.12, 0.42+/-0.15 and 0.43+/-0.18, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Interobserver agreement for the current ATS/ERS/JRS/ALAT CT criteria for UIP is only moderate among thoracic radiologists, AUrespective of theAU experience, and did not vary with patient age or the MDT diagnosis