Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections

This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between present (1961-90) and future (2071-2100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first century, countries in central Europe will experience the same number of hot days as are currently experienced in southern Europe. The intensity of extreme temperatures increases more rapidly than the intensity of more moderate temperatures over the continental interior due to increases in temperature variability. Precipitation - Heavy winter precipitation increases in central and northern Europe and decreases in the south; heavy summer precipitation increases in north-eastern Europe and decreases in the south. Mediterranean droughts start earlier in the year and last longer. Winter storms - Extreme wind speeds increase between 45°N and 55°N, except over and south of the Alps, and become more north-westerly than cuurently. These changes are associated with reductions in mean sea-level pressure, leading to more North Sea storms and a corresponding increase in storm surges along coastal regions of Holland, Germany and Denmark, in particular. These results are found to depend to different degrees on model formulation. While the responses of heat waves are robust to model formulation, the magnitudes of changes in precipitation and wind speed are sensitive to the choice of regional model, and the detailed patterns of these changes are sensitive to the choice of the driving global model. In the case of precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability between different emissions scenario

Context-aware genomic surveillance reveals hidden transmission of a carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae

Genomic surveillance can inform effective public health responses to pathogen outbreaks. However, integration of non-local data is rarely done. We investigate two large hospital outbreaks of a carbapenemase-carrying Klebsiella pneumoniae strain in Germany and show the value of contextual data. By screening about 10 000 genomes, over 400 000 metagenomes and two culture collections using in silico and in vitro methods, we identify a total of 415 closely related genomes reported in 28 studies. We identify the relationship between the two outbreaks through time-dated phylogeny, including their respective origin. One of the outbreaks presents extensive hidden transmission, with descendant isolates only identified in other studies. We then leverage the genome collection from this meta-analysis to identify genes under positive selection. We thereby identify an inner membrane transporter (ynjC) with a putative role in colistin resistance. Contextual data from other sources can thus enhance local genomic surveillance at multiple levels and should be integrated by default when available

Genomic analysis of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates from Malawi reveals acquisition of multiple ESBL determinants across diverse lineages

Objectives ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPN) pose a major threat to human health globally. We carried out a WGS study to understand the genetic background of ESBL-producing KPN in Malawi and place them in the context of other global isolates. Methods We sequenced genomes of 72 invasive and carriage KPN isolates collected from patients admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi. We performed phylogenetic and population structure analyses on these and previously published genomes from Kenya (n = 66) and from outside sub-Saharan Africa (n = 67). We screened for presence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genetic determinants and carried out association analyses by genomic sequence cluster, AMR phenotype and time. Results Malawian isolates fit within the global population structure of KPN, clustering into the major lineages of KpI, KpII and KpIII. KpI isolates from Malawi were more related to those from Kenya, with both collections exhibiting more clonality than isolates from the rest of the world. We identified multiple ESBL genes, including blaCTX-M-15, several blaSHV, blaTEM-63 and blaOXA-10, and other AMR genes, across diverse lineages of the KPN isolates from Malawi. No carbapenem resistance genes were detected; however, we detected IncFII and IncFIB plasmids that were similar to the carbapenem resistance-associated plasmid pNDM-mar. Conclusions There are multiple ESBL genes across diverse KPN lineages in Malawi and plasmids in circulation that are capable of carrying carbapenem resistance. Unless appropriate interventions are rapidly put in place, these may lead to a high burden of locally untreatable infection in vulnerable populations

Integrated Approach Reveals Role of Mitochondrial Germ-Line Mutation F18L in Respiratory Chain, Oxidative Alterations, Drug Sensitivity, and Patient Prognosis in Glioblastoma

Glioblastoma is the most common and malignant primary brain tumour in adults, with a dismal prognosis. This is partly due to considerable inter- and intra-tumour heterogeneity. Changes in the cellular energy-producing mitochondrial respiratory chain complex (MRC) activities are a hallmark of glioblastoma relative to the normal brain, and associate with differential survival outcomes. Targeting MRC complexes with drugs can also facilitate anti-glioblastoma activity. Whether mutations in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) that encode several components of the MRC contribute to these phenomena remains underexplored. We identified a germ-line mtDNA mutation (m. 14798T > C), enriched in glioblastoma relative to healthy controls, that causes an amino acid substitution F18L within the core mtDNA-encoded cytochrome b subunit of MRC complex III. F18L is predicted to alter corresponding complex III activity, and sensitivity to complex III-targeting drugs. This could in turn alter reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, cell behaviour and, consequently, patient outcomes. Here we show that, despite a heterogeneous mitochondrial background in adult glioblastoma patient biopsy-derived cell cultures, the F18L substitution associates with alterations in individual MRC complex activities, in particular a 75% increase in MRC complex II_III activity, and a 34% reduction in CoQ10, the natural substrate for MRC complex III, levels. Downstream characterisation of an F18L-carrier revealed an 87% increase in intra-cellular ROS, an altered cellular distribution of mitochondrial-specific ROS, and a 64% increased sensitivity to clomipramine, a repurposed MRC complex III-targeting drug. In patients, F18L-carriers that received the current standard of care treatment had a poorer prognosis than non-carriers (373 days vs. 415 days, respectively). Single germ-line mitochondrial mutations could predispose individuals to differential prognoses, and sensitivity to mitochondrial targeted drugs. Thus, F18L, which is present in blood could serve as a useful non-invasive biomarker for the stratification of patients into prognostically relevant groups, one of which requires a lower dose of clomipramine to achieve clinical effect, thus minimising side-effects

Assessment of Three Mitochondrial Genes (16S, Cytb, CO1) for Identifying Species in the Praomyini Tribe (Rodentia: Muridae)

The Praomyini tribe is one of the most diverse and abundant groups of Old World rodents. Several species are known to be involved in crop damage and in the epidemiology of several human and cattle diseases. Due to the existence of sibling species their identification is often problematic. Thus an easy, fast and accurate species identification tool is needed for non-systematicians to correctly identify Praomyini species. In this study we compare the usefulness of three genes (16S, Cytb, CO1) for identifying species of this tribe. A total of 426 specimens representing 40 species (sampled across their geographical range) were sequenced for the three genes. Nearly all of the species included in our study are monophyletic in the neighbour joining trees. The degree of intra-specific variability tends to be lower than the divergence between species, but no barcoding gap is detected. The success rate of the statistical methods of species identification is excellent (up to 99% or 100% for statistical supervised classification methods as the k-Nearest Neighbour or Random Forest). The 16S gene is 2.5 less variable than the Cytb and CO1 genes. As a result its discriminatory power is smaller. To sum up, our results suggest that using DNA markers for identifying species in the Praomyini tribe is a largely valid approach, and that the CO1 and Cytb genes are better DNA markers than the 16S gene. Our results confirm the usefulness of statistical methods such as the Random Forest and the 1-NN methods to assign a sequence to a species, even when the number of species is relatively large. Based on our NJ trees and the distribution of all intraspecific and interspecific pairwise nucleotide distances, we highlight the presence of several potentially new species within the Praomyini tribe that should be subject to corroboration assessments

Meta-analysis of SHANK Mutations in Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Gradient of Severity in Cognitive Impairments.

International audienceSHANK genes code for scaffold proteins located at the post-synaptic density of glutamatergic synapses. In neurons, SHANK2 and SHANK3 have a positive effect on the induction and maturation of dendritic spines, whereas SHANK1 induces the enlargement of spine heads. Mutations in SHANK genes have been associated with autism spectrum disorders (ASD), but their prevalence and clinical relevance remain to be determined. Here, we performed a new screen and a meta-analysis of SHANK copy-number and coding-sequence variants in ASD. Copy-number variants were analyzed in 5,657 patients and 19,163 controls, coding-sequence variants were ascertained in 760 to 2,147 patients and 492 to 1,090 controls (depending on the gene), and, individuals carrying de novo or truncating SHANK mutations underwent an extensive clinical investigation. Copy-number variants and truncating mutations in SHANK genes were present in ∼1% of patients with ASD: mutations in SHANK1 were rare (0.04%) and present in males with normal IQ and autism; mutations in SHANK2 were present in 0.17% of patients with ASD and mild intellectual disability; mutations in SHANK3 were present in 0.69% of patients with ASD and up to 2.12% of the cases with moderate to profound intellectual disability. In summary, mutations of the SHANK genes were detected in the whole spectrum of autism with a gradient of severity in cognitive impairment. Given the rare frequency of SHANK1 and SHANK2 deleterious mutations, the clinical relevance of these genes remains to be ascertained. In contrast, the frequency and the penetrance of SHANK3 mutations in individuals with ASD and intellectual disability-more than 1 in 50-warrant its consideration for mutation screening in clinical practice

Measurements of the leptonic branching fractions of the τ\tau

Data collected with the DELPHI detector from 1993 to 1995 combined with previous DELPHI results for data from 1991 and 1992 yield the branching fractions B({\tau \rightarrow \mbox{\rm e} \nu \bar{\nu}}) = (17.877 \pm 0.109_{stat} \pm 0.110_{sys} )\% and $B({\tau \rightarrow \mu \nu \bar{\nu}}) = (17.325 \pm 0.095_{stat} \pm 0.077_{sys} )\%$

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men