Fitting Age-Period-Cohort Models Using the Intrinsic Estimator: Assumptions and Misapplications

We thank Demography’s editorial office for the opportunity to respond to te Grotenhuis et al.’s commentary regarding the methods used and the results presented in our earlier paper (Masters et al. 2014). In this response, we briefly reply to three general themes raised in the commentary: (1) the presentation and discussion of APC results, (2) the fitting of full APC models to data for which a simpler model holds, and (3) the variation in the estimated age, period, and cohort coefficients produced by the intrinsic estimator (IE) (i.e., the “non-uniqueness property” of the IE, as referred to by Pelzer et al. (2015))

Mantle sources and magma evolution in Europe's largest rare earth element belt (Gardar Province, SW Greenland) : new insights from sulfur isotopes

This work is a contribution to the HiTech AlkCarb project and was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 689909. W.H. also acknowledges support from a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/S033505/1). A.J.B. is funded by the NERC National Environment Isotope Facility award (NE/S011587/1) and the Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre.Alkaline igneous complexes are often rich in rare earth elements (REE) and other metals essential for modern technologies. Although a variety of magmatic and hydrothermal processes explain the occurrence of individual deposits, one common feature identified in almost all studies, is a REE-enriched parental melt sourced from the lithospheric mantle. Fundamental questions remain about the origin and importance of the mantle source in the genesis of REE-rich magmas. In particular, it is often unclear whether localized enrichments within an alkaline province reflect heterogeneity in the mantle source lithology (caused by prior subduction or plume activity) or variations in the degree of partial melting and differentiation of a largely homogeneous source. Sulfur isotopes offer a means of testing these hypotheses because they are unaffected by high temperature partial melting processes and can fingerprint different mantle sources. Although one must be careful to rule out subsequent isotope fractionation during magma ascent, degassing and crustal interactions. Here, we present new S concentration and isotope (δ34S) measurements, as well as a compilation of major and trace element data, for a suite of alkaline magmatic units and crustal lithologies from the Mesoproterozoic Gardar Province. Samples span all phases of Gardar magmatism (1330–1140 Ma) and include regional dykes, rift lavas and the alkaline complexes Motzfeldt and Ilímaussaq, which represent two of Europe's largest REE deposits. We show that the vast majority of our 115 samples have S contents >100 ppm and δ34S of −1 to 5‰. Only 8 samples (with low S contents, <100 ppm) show evidence for crustal interactions, implying that the vast majority of Gardar melts preserve the S isotopic signature of their magma source. Importantly, samples from across the Gardar Province δ34S have above the canonical mantle range (≤−1.4‰) and therefore require recycled surface S in their mantle source. Elevated values are explained by a period of Andean-style subduction and mantle metasomatism which took place ∼500 Ma before rift onset and are also supported by trace elements signatures (e.g. Ba/La) which match modern subduction zones. Comparing the various generations of Gardar magmas, we find that δ34S  values, large ion lithophile elements (K, Ba, P) and selective incompatible elements (Nb and light REE) are particularly enriched in the Late Gardar dykes, alkaline complexes and clusters of silica-undersaturated dykes spatially associated with the alkaline complexes. These data indicate that subduction-related metasomatism of the Gardar mantle was spatially heterogeneous, and that alkaline complexes are sourced from localized mantle domains highly enriched in 34S, REE, alkalis and volatiles (particularly, F). Since alkalis and volatiles play an essential role in driving extreme differentiation of alkaline melts and fluids, we suggest the co-location of these species plus incompatible metals at high concentrations in the lithospheric mantle is a critical first-step in the genesis of a world-class alkaline REE deposit. S isotopes are powerful tools for identifying enriched mantle domains and the sources of mineralized alkaline igneous bodies.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

IGEMS : The Consortium on Interplay of Genes and Environment Across Multiple Studies - An Update

The Interplay of Genes and Environment across Multiple Studies (IGEMS) is a consortium of 18 twin studies from 5 different countries (Sweden, Denmark, Finland, United States, and Australia) established to explore the nature of gene-environment (GE) interplay in functioning across the adult lifespan. Fifteen of the studies are longitudinal, with follow-up as long as 59 years after baseline. The combined data from over 76,000 participants aged 14-103 at intake (including over 10,000 monozygotic and over 17,000 dizygotic twin pairs) support two primary research emphases: (1) investigation of models of GE interplay of early life adversity, and social factors at micro and macro environmental levels and with diverse outcomes, including mortality, physical functioning and psychological functioning; and (2) improved understanding of risk and protective factors for dementia by incorporating unmeasured and measured genetic factors with a wide range of exposures measured in young adulthood, midlife and later life.Peer reviewe

Comparison of embedded and added motor imagery training in patients after stroke: Study protocol of a randomised controlled pilot trial using a mixed methods approach

Copyright @ 2009 Schuster et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background: Two different approaches have been adopted when applying motor imagery (MI) to stroke patients. MI can be conducted either added to conventional physiotherapy or integrated within therapy sessions. The proposed study aims to compare the efficacy of embedded MI to an added MI intervention. Evidence from pilot studies reported in the literature suggests that both approaches can improve performance of a complex motor skill involving whole body movements, however, it remains to be demonstrated, which is the more effective one.Methods/Design: A single blinded, randomised controlled trial (RCT) with a pre-post intervention design will be carried out. The study design includes two experimental groups and a control group (CG). Both experimental groups (EG1, EG2) will receive physical practice of a clinical relevant motor task ('Going down, laying on the floor, and getting up again') over a two week intervention period: EG1 with embedded MI training, EG2 with MI training added after physiotherapy. The CG will receive standard physiotherapy intervention and an additional control intervention not related to MI.The primary study outcome is the time difference to perform the task from pre to post-intervention. Secondary outcomes include level of help needed, stages of motor task completion, degree of motor impairment, balance ability, fear of falling measure, motivation score, and motor imagery ability score. Four data collection points are proposed: twice during baseline phase, once following the intervention period, and once after a two week follow up. A nested qualitative part should add an important insight into patients' experience and attitudes towards MI. Semi-structured interviews of six to ten patients, who participate in the RCT, will be conducted to investigate patients' previous experience with MI and their expectations towards the MI intervention in the study. Patients will be interviewed prior and after the intervention period.Discussion: Results will determine whether embedded MI is superior to added MI. Findings of the semi-structured interviews will help to integrate patient's expectations of MI interventions in the design of research studies to improve practical applicability using MI as an adjunct therapy technique

Identification and structure elucidation of epoxyjanthitrems from Lolium perenne infected with the endophytic fungus Epichloë festucae var. lolii and determination of the tremorgenic and anti-insect activity of epoxyjanthitrem I.

Epoxyjanthitrems I-IV (1-4) and epoxyjanthitriol (5) were isolated from seed of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) infected with the endophytic fungus Epichloë festucae var. lolii. Although structures for epoxyjanthitrems I-IV have previously been proposed in the literature, this is the first report of a full structural elucidation yielding NMR (Nuclear magnetic resonance) assignments for all five epoxyjanthitrem compounds, and additionally, it is the first isolation of epoxyjanthitriol (5). Epoxyjanthitrem I induced tremors in mice and gave a dose dependent reduction in weight gain and feeding for porina (Wiseana cervinata), a common pasture pest in New Zealand. These data suggest that epoxyjanthitrems are involved in the observed effects of the AR37 endophyte on livestock and insect pests

The relationships between golf and health:A scoping review

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships between golf and health. DESIGN: Scoping review. DATA SOURCES: Published and unpublished reports of any age or language, identified by searching electronic databases, platforms, reference lists, websites and from consulting experts. REVIEW METHODS: A 3-step search strategy identified relevant published primary and secondary studies as well as grey literature. Identified studies were screened for final inclusion. Data were extracted using a standardised tool, to form (1) a descriptive analysis and (2) a thematic summary. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: 4944 records were identified with an initial search. 301 studies met criteria for the scoping review. Golf can provide moderate intensity physical activity and is associated with physical health benefits that include improved cardiovascular, respiratory and metabolic profiles, and improved wellness. There is limited evidence related to golf and mental health. The incidence of golfing injury is moderate, with back injuries the most frequent. Accidental head injuries are rare, but can have serious consequences. CONCLUSIONS: Practitioners and policymakers can be encouraged to support more people to play golf, due to associated improved physical health and mental well-being, and a potential contribution to increased life expectancy. Injuries and illnesses associated with golf have been identified, and risk reduction strategies are warranted. Further research priorities include systematic reviews to further explore the cause and effect nature of the relationships described. Research characterising golf's contribution to muscular strengthening, balance and falls prevention as well as further assessing the associations and effects between golf and mental health are also indicated

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment: Exploring Fundamental Symmetries of the Universe

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early Universe, the dynamics of the supernova bursts that produced the heavy elements necessary for life and whether protons eventually decay --- these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our Universe, its current state and its eventual fate. The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment (LBNE) represents an extensively developed plan for a world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions. LBNE is conceived around three central components: (1) a new, high-intensity neutrino source generated from a megawatt-class proton accelerator at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, (2) a near neutrino detector just downstream of the source, and (3) a massive liquid argon time-projection chamber deployed as a far detector deep underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. This facility, located at the site of the former Homestake Mine in Lead, South Dakota, is approximately 1,300 km from the neutrino source at Fermilab -- a distance (baseline) that delivers optimal sensitivity to neutrino charge-parity symmetry violation and mass ordering effects. This ambitious yet cost-effective design incorporates scalability and flexibility and can accommodate a variety of upgrades and contributions. With its exceptional combination of experimental configuration, technical capabilities, and potential for transformative discoveries, LBNE promises to be a vital facility for the field of particle physics worldwide, providing physicists from around the globe with opportunities to collaborate in a twenty to thirty year program of exciting science. In this document we provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess.Comment: Major update of previous version. This is the reference document for LBNE science program and current status. Chapters 1, 3, and 9 provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess. 288 pages, 116 figure

Treatment and Intervention for Opiate Dependence in the United Kingdom:Lessons from Triumph and Failure

The history of opiate treatment in the United Kingdom (UK) since the early 1980s is a rich source of learning about the benefits and pitfalls of drug treatment policy. We present five possible lessons to be learnt about how factors outside the clinic, including government, charities and researchers can influence treatment and outcomes. First, do not let a crisis go to waste. The philosophical shift from abstinence to harm reduction in the 1980s, in response to an HIV outbreak in injecting users, facilitated expansion in addiction services and made a harm reduction approach more acceptable. Second, studies of drug-related deaths can lead to advances in care. By elucidating the pattern of mortality, and designing interventions to address the causes, researchers have improved patient safety in certain contexts, though significant investment in Scotland has not arrested rising mortality. Third, collection of longitudinal data and its use to inform clinical guidelines, as pursued from the mid-1990s, can form an enduring evidence base and shape policy, sometimes in unintended ways. Fourth, beware of the presentation of harm reduction and recovery as in conflict. At the least, this reduces patient choice, and at worst, it has caused some services to be redesigned in a manner that jeopardises patient safety. Fifth, the relationship between the third and state sectors must be carefully nurtured. In the UK, early collaboration has been replaced by competition, driven by changes in funding, to the detriment of service provision

Systemic chemotherapy with or without cetuximab in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis (New EPOC): long-term results of a multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The interim analysis of the multicentre New EPOC trial in patients with resectable colorectal liver metastasis showed a significant reduction in progression-free survival in patients allocated to cetuximab plus chemotherapy compared with those given chemotherapy alone. The focus of the present analysis was to assess the effect on overall survival. METHODS: New EPOC was a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial. Adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with KRAS wild-type (codons 12, 13, and 61) resectable or suboptimally resectable colorectal liver metastases and a WHO performance status of 0-2 were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive chemotherapy with or without cetuximab before and after liver resection. Randomisation was done centrally with minimisation factors of surgical centre, poor prognosis cancer, and previous adjuvant treatment with oxaliplatin. Chemotherapy consisted of oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2 administered intravenously over 2 h, l-folinic acid (175 mg flat dose administered intravenously over 2 h) or d,l-folinic acid (350 mg flat dose administered intravenously over 2 h), and fluorouracil bolus 400 mg/m2 administered intravenously over 5 min, followed by a 46 h infusion of fluorouracil 2400 mg/m2 repeated every 2 weeks (regimen one), or oxaliplatin 130 mg/m2 administered intravenously over 2 h and oral capecitabine 1000 mg/m2 twice daily on days 1-14 repeated every 3 weeks (regimen two). Patients who had received adjuvant oxaliplatin could receive irinotecan 180 mg/m2 intravenously over 30 min with fluorouracil instead of oxaliplatin (regimen three). Cetuximab was given intravenously, 500 mg/m2 every 2 weeks with regimen one and three or a loading dose of 400 mg/m2 followed by a weekly infusion of 250 mg/m2 with regimen two. The primary endpoint of progression-free survival was published previously. Secondary endpoints were overall survival, preoperative response, pathological resection status, and safety. Trial recruitment was halted prematurely on the advice of the Trial Steering Committee on Nov 1, 2012. All analyses (except safety) were done on the intention-to-treat population. Safety analyses included all randomly assigned patients. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 22944367. FINDINGS: Between Feb 26, 2007, and Oct 12, 2012, 257 eligible patients were randomly assigned to chemotherapy with cetuximab (n=129) or without cetuximab (n=128). This analysis was carried out 5 years after the last patient was recruited, as defined in the protocol, at a median follow-up of 66·7 months (IQR 58·0-77·5). Median progression-free survival was 22·2 months (95% CI 18·3-26·8) in the chemotherapy alone group and 15·5 months (13·8-19·0) in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group (hazard ratio [HR] 1·17, 95% CI 0·87-1·56; p=0·304). Median overall survival was 81·0 months (59·6 to not reached) in the chemotherapy alone group and 55·4 months (43·5-71·5) in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group (HR 1·45, 1·02-2·05; p=0·036). There was no significant difference in the secondary outcomes of preoperative response or pathological resection status between groups. Five deaths might have been treatment-related (one in the chemotherapy alone group and four in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group). The most common grade 3-4 adverse events reported were: neutrophil count decreased (26 [19%] of 134 in the chemotherapy alone group vs 21 [15%] of 137 in the chemotherapy plus cetuximab group), diarrhoea (13 [10%] vs 14 [10%]), skin rash (one [1%] vs 22 [16%]), thromboembolic events (ten [7%] vs 11 [8%]), lethargy (ten [7%] vs nine [7%]), oral mucositis (three [2%] vs 14 [10%]), vomiting (seven [5%] vs seven [5%]), peripheral neuropathy (eight [6%] vs five [4%]), and pain (six [4%] vs six [4%]). INTERPRETATION: Although the addition of cetuximab to chemotherapy improves the overall survival in some studies in patients with advanced, inoperable metastatic disease, its use in the perioperative setting in patients with operable disease confers a significant disadvantage in terms of overall survival. Cetuximab should not be used in this setting. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK

RA-MAP, molecular immunological landscapes in early rheumatoid arthritis and healthy vaccine recipients

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disorder with poorly defined aetiology characterised by synovial inflammation with variable disease severity and drug responsiveness. To investigate the peripheral blood immune cell landscape of early, drug naive RA, we performed comprehensive clinical and molecular profiling of 267 RA patients and 52 healthy vaccine recipients for up to 18 months to establish a high quality sample biobank including plasma, serum, peripheral blood cells, urine, genomic DNA, RNA from whole blood, lymphocyte and monocyte subsets. We have performed extensive multi-omic immune phenotyping, including genomic, metabolomic, proteomic, transcriptomic and autoantibody profiling. We anticipate that these detailed clinical and molecular data will serve as a fundamental resource offering insights into immune-mediated disease pathogenesis, progression and therapeutic response, ultimately contributing to the development and application of targeted therapies for RA.</p