Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden

Exclosures improve degraded landscapes in the sub-humid Ethiopian highlands: the Ferenj Wuha Watershed

Land resources in developing countries are facing intense degradation due to deforestation and subsequent loss of organic matter from continuous tillage that causes soil erosion and gulley formation. The Ethiopian highlands are especially and severely affected. One of the land and water management practices to counteract this problem, fenced areas to prevent livestock access (called exclosures), has been in practice for the last few decades in the semi-arid highlands of Ethiopia but its effect on degraded landscapes has not been well researched – especially in the sub-humid and humid highlands. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of exclosures on improving degraded landscapes in the sub-humid highlands. The research was carried out in the Ferenj Wuha watershed, in the northwestern sub-humid Ethiopian highlands, where land and water management practices were implemented starting in 2011. Vegetation was inventoried and aboveground biomass, carbon and nutrient stock determined for communal grazing land, exclosures and for other uses. In addition, soil samples were collected for nutrient analysis. Our results show that exclosures have a richer and more diverse set of plant species compared to communal grazing land. Establishment of an exclosure also enhanced organic carbon, total nitrogen and available phosphorus. Over a six-year period, aboveground biomass increased by 54 Mg ha 1 (or 81%) at the watershed scale because of the conversion of communal grazing land to exclosures. The improvement in soil nutrients due to exclosures, in turn, increased carbon and nutrient stock. The results support regeneration of degraded landscapes by restoring vegetation, soil fertility, carbon and nutrient stocks in the Northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. However, additional research is required to more accurately quantify these improvements because current research efforts that sample only the surface soils seem to indicate that the capacity of exclosures to increase soil carbon storage is decreasing when annual rainfall is increasing

African evolutionary history inferred from whole genome sequence data of 44 indigenous African populations [plus Correction]

Background : Africa is the origin of modern humans within the past 300 thousand years. To infer the complex demographic history of African populations and adaptation to diverse environments, we sequenced the genomes of 92 individuals from 44 indigenous African populations. Results : Genetic structure analyses indicate that among Africans, genetic ancestry is largely partitioned by geography and language, though we observe mixed ancestry in many individuals, consistent with both short- and long-range migration events followed by admixture. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the San genetic lineage is basal to all modern human lineages. The San and Niger-Congo, Afroasiatic, and Nilo-Saharan lineages were substantially diverged by 160 kya (thousand years ago). In contrast, the San and Central African rainforest hunter-gatherer (CRHG), Hadza hunter-gatherer, and Sandawe hunter-gatherer lineages were diverged by ~ 120–100 kya. Niger-Congo, Nilo-Saharan, and Afroasiatic lineages diverged more recently by ~ 54–16 kya. Eastern and western CRHG lineages diverged by ~ 50–31 kya, and the western CRHG lineages diverged by ~ 18–12 kya. The San and CRHG populations maintained the largest effective population size compared to other populations prior to 60 kya. Further, we observed signatures of positive selection at genes involved in muscle development, bone synthesis, reproduction, immune function, energy metabolism, and cell signaling, which may contribute to local adaptation of African populations. Conclusions : We observe high levels of genomic variation between ethnically diverse Africans which is largely correlated with geography and language. Our study indicates ancient population substructure and local adaptation of Africans

Serologic and Cytokine Signatures in Children with Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome and Coronavirus Disease 2019

Background: The serologic and cytokine responses of children hospitalized with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) vs coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are poorly understood. Methods: We performed a prospective, multicenter, cross-sectional study of hospitalized children who met the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention case definition for MIS-C (n = 118), acute COVID-19 (n = 88), or contemporaneous healthy controls (n = 24). We measured severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) immunoglobulin G (IgG) titers and cytokine concentrations in patients and performed multivariable analysis to determine cytokine signatures associated with MIS-C. We also measured nucleocapsid IgG and convalescent RBD IgG in subsets of patients. Results: Children with MIS-C had significantly higher SARS-CoV-2 RBD IgG than children with acute COVID-19 (median, 2783 vs 146; P <.001), and titers correlated with nucleocapsid IgG. For patients with MIS-C, RBD IgG titers declined in convalescence (median, 2783 vs 1135; P =.010) in contrast to patients with COVID-19 (median, 146 vs 4795; P <.001). MIS-C was characterized by transient acute proinflammatory hypercytokinemia, including elevated levels of interleukin (IL) 6, IL-10, IL-17A, and interferon gamma (IFN-γ). Elevation of at least 3 of these cytokines was associated with significantly increased prevalence of prolonged hospitalization ≥8 days (prevalence ratio, 3.29 [95% CI, 1.17-9.23]). Conclusions: MIS-C was associated with high titers of SARS-CoV-2 RBD IgG antibodies and acute hypercytokinemia with IL-6, IL-10, IL-17A, and IFN-γ. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.Open access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]