Evaluation of Ethiopian Tax Administration System: emphasis on taxpayer compliance

Voluntary compliance with tax laws of taxpayers is believed to be shaped by two major streams of factors: economic and social-psychological. Many countries of the world including Ethiopia try to emphasize the economic deterrence approach in which the belief is that taxpayers pay taxes only because they fear audit and the subsequent sanctions. The social-psychology approach to taxation, on the other hand, takes the position that taxpayers’ (non)compliance decision is influenced by justice perception, how they value government expenditure, how they feel they are treated by the revenue authority, and so on. In this study we concisely went over the historical evolution of taxation in Ethiopia, assessed the culture of voluntary compliance, looked at how taxpayers perceive service delivery by the revenue authority, and evaluated the fairness perception of the Ethiopian tax system. Data for the study were gathered primarily through questionnaire distributed to 200 (162 usable ones returned) taxpayers and unstructured interview with selected officials from the revenue authority. Secondary sources such as journal articles, reports of the World Bank, IMF, and MoFED were also consulted. We used descriptive data analysis method. Both economic and social-psychological factors are found to influence taxpayers’ (non)compliance decision in so far as those respondents’ responses indicate.Keywords: Tax administration, Voluntary compliance, Taxpayers’ services, Tax system fairnes

Epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages and strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia

Background Previous work has shown differential predominance of certain Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) lineages and sub-lineages among different human populations in diverse geographic regions of Ethiopia. Nevertheless, how strain diversity is evolving under the ongoing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes is poorly understood. The present study investigated factors associated with M. tb lineage predominance and rate of strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia. Methods Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and Cervical tuberculous lymphadenitis (TBLN) patients who visited selected health facilities were recruited in the years of 2016 and 2017. A total of 258 M. tb isolates identified from 163 sputa and 95 fine-needle aspirates (FNA) were characterized by spoligotyping and compared with international M.tb spoligotyping patterns registered at the SITVIT2 databases. The molecular data were linked with clinical and demographic data of the patients for further statistical analysis. Results From a total of 258 M. tb isolates, 84 distinct spoligotype patterns that included 58 known Shared International Type (SIT) patterns and 26 new or orphan patterns were identified. The majority of strains belonged to two major M. tb lineages, L3 (35.7%) and L4 (61.6%). The observed high percentage of isolates with shared patterns (n = 200/258) suggested a substantial rate of overall clustering (77.5%). After adjusting for the effect of geographical variations, clustering rate was significantly lower among individuals co-infected with HIV and other concomitant chronic disease. Compared to L4, the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (AOR; 95% CI) indicated that infections with L3 M. tb strains were more likely to be associated with TBLN [3.47 (1.45, 8.29)] and TB-HIV co-infection [2.84 (1.61, 5.55)]. Conclusion Despite the observed difference in strain diversity and geographical distribution of M. tb lineages, compared to earlier studies in Ethiopia, the overall rate of strain clustering suggests higher transmission and warrant more detailed investigations into the molecular epidemiology of TB and related factors

Prevalence of bovine tuberculosis and its associated risk factors in the emerging dairy belts of regional cities in Ethiopia

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has become an economically important disease in dairy herds found in and around Addis Ababa City and is emerging in regional cities like Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle because of the establishment of dairy farms in the milk sheds of these cities. A cross-sectional study to estimate the prevalence of BTB and identify associated risk factors was conducted between February 2016 and March 2017. A total of 174 herds comprising of 2,754 dairy cattle in the cities of Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle were tested using the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test. Data on herd structure, animal origin, body condition, housing condition, farm hygiene, management and biosecurity practices were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) were used to analyze the herd and animal level risk factors, respectively. The herd prevalence was 22.4% (95% CI: 17–29%) while the animal prevalence was 5.2% (95% CI: 4–6%) at the cut-off >4 mm. The herd prevalence rose to 65.5% (95% CI: 58–72%) and the animal prevalence rose to 9% (95% CI: 8–10%) when the severe interpretation of >2 mm cut-off was applied. The mean within-herd prevalence in positive farms at the cut-off >4 mm was 22.7% (95% CI: 15–31%). At the herd level, the analysis showed that herd size, farm hygiene, feeding condition and biosecurity were significantly associated with BTB status, while new cattle introductions showed only borderline significance and that age of farm, housing condition, farmers’ educational status and animal health care practice were not significant. At the animal level, the results showed that age and animal origin were identified as significant predictors for BTB positivity but sex and body condition score were not related to BTB status. Descriptive analysis revealed that herds having ‘BTB history’ showed slightly higher likelihood of being BTB positive compared to farms having no previous BTB exposure. In conclusion, this study showed relatively lower average prevalence in the emerging dairy regions as compared to the prevalence observed in and around Addis Ababa City, warranting for implementation of control program at this stage to reduce or possibly stop further transmission of BTB

Network analysis of dairy cattle movement and associations with bovine tuberculosis spread and control in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia

Background: Dairy cattle movement could be a major risk factor for the spread of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. Dairy cattle may be moved between farms over long distances, and hence understanding the route and frequency of the movements is essential to establish the pattern of spread of BTB between farms, which could ultimately help to inform policy makers to design cost effective control strategies. The objective of this study was, therefore, to investigate the network structure of dairy cattle movement and its influence on the transmission and prevalence of BTB in three emerging areas among the Ethiopian dairy belts, namely the cities of Hawassa, Gondar and Mekelle. Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted in 278 farms to collect data on the pattern of dairy cattle movement for the last 5 years (September 2013 to August 2018). Visualization of the network structure and analysis of the relationship between the network patterns and the prevalence of BTB in these regions were made using social network analysis. Results: The cattle movement network structure display both scale free and small world properties implying local clustering with fewer farms being highly connected, at higher risk of infection, with the potential to act as super spreaders of BTB if infected. Farms having a history of cattle movements onto the herds were more likely to be affected by BTB (OR: 2.2) compared to farms not having a link history. Euclidean distance between farms and the batch size of animals moved on were positively correlated with prevalence of BTB. On the other hand, farms having one or more outgoing cattle showed a decrease on the likelihood of BTB infection (OR = 0.57) compared to farms which maintained their cattle. Conclusion: This study showed that the patterns of cattle movement and size of animal moved between farms contributed to the potential for BTB transmission. The few farms with the bulk of transmission potential could be efficiently targeted by control measures aimed at reducing the spread of BTB. The network structure described can also provide the starting point to build and estimate dynamic transmission models for BTB, and other infectious disease

Evidence for a role of Anopheles stephensi in the spread of drug- and diagnosis-resistant malaria in Africa

Anopheles stephensi, an Asian malaria vector, continues to expand across Africa. The vector is now firmly established in urban settings in the Horn of Africa. Its presence in areas where malaria resurged suggested a possible role in causing malaria outbreaks. Here, using a prospective case-control design, we investigated the role of An. stephensi in transmission following a malaria outbreak in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia in April-July 2022. Screening contacts of patients with malaria and febrile controls revealed spatial clustering of Plasmodium falciparum infections around patients with malaria in strong association with the presence of An. stephensi in the household vicinity. Plasmodium sporozoites were detected in these mosquitoes. This outbreak involved clonal propagation of parasites with molecular signatures of artemisinin and diagnostic resistance. To our knowledge, this study provides the strongest evidence so far for a role of An. stephensi in driving an urban malaria outbreak in Africa, highlighting the major public health threat posed by this fast-spreading mosquito

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Economic evaluation of shortened, bedaquiline-containing treatment regimens for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (STREAM stage 2) : a within-trial analysis of a randomised controlled trial

Background: The STREAM stage 2 trial assessed two bedaquiline-containing regimens for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a 9-month all-oral regimen and a 6-month regimen containing an injectable drug for the first 2 months. We did a within-trial economic evaluation of these regimens. Methods: STREAM stage 2 was an international, phase 3, non-inferiority randomised trial in which participants with rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis were randomly assigned (1:2:2:2) to the 2011 WHO regimen (terminated early), a 9-month injectable-containing regimen (control regimen), a 9-month all-oral regimen with bedaquiline (oral regimen), or a 6-month regimen with bedaquiline and an injectable for the first 2 months (6-month regimen). We prospectively collected direct and indirect costs and health-related quality of life data from trial participants until week 76 of follow-up. Cost-effectiveness of the oral and 6-month regimens versus control was estimated in four countries (oral regimen) and two countries (6-month regimen), using health-related quality of life for cost-utility analysis and trial efficacy for cost-effectiveness analysis. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN18148631. Findings: 300 participants were included in the economic analyses (Ethiopia, 61; India, 142; Moldova, 51; Uganda, 46). In the cost-utility analysis, the oral regimen was not cost-effective in Ethiopia, India, Moldova, and Uganda from either a provider or societal perspective. In Moldova, the oral regimen was dominant from a societal perspective. In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the oral regimen was likely to be cost-effective from a provider perspective at willingness-to-pay thresholds per additional favourable outcome of more than US$4500 in Ethiopia,$1900 in India, $3950 in Moldova, and$7900 in Uganda, and from a societal perspective at thresholds of more than $15 900 in Ethiopia,$3150 in India, and $4350 in Uganda, while in Moldova the oral regimen was dominant. In Ethiopia and India, the 6-month regimen would cost tuberculosis programmes and participants less than the control regimen and was highly likely to be cost-effective in both cost-utility analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis. Reducing the bedaquiline price from$1·81 to $1·00 per tablet made the oral regimen cost-effective in the provider-perspective cost-utility analysis in India and Moldova and dominate over the control regimen in the provider-perspective cost-effectiveness analysis in India. Interpretation: At current costs, the oral bedaquiline-containing regimen for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis is unlikely to be cost-effective in many low-income and middle-income countries. The 6-month regimen represents a cost-effective alternative if injectable use for 2 months is acceptable. Funding: USAID and Janssen Research & Development

Economic Impact of Transport Infrastructure in Ethiopia: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment

This article examines the relevant relationship between transport infrastructure and foreign direct investment (FDI) in explaining economic growth from the road and air transport perspectives in Ethiopia over the period 1981 to 2017. To determine the economic effect of transport infrastructure, first, we assess the co-integration between transport infrastructure and economic growth using the autoregressive distributed lag bound test model. Once co-integration is established, the elasticity of economic growth is estimated using Ordinary Least Square estimation techniques. Second, we perform the hierarchical multiple regression to estimate the mediation impact of FDI in the association between transport infrastructure and economic growth. Initially, we have standardized all variables. Then, we estimate the mediating effect of FDI. To validate the consistency of our method, we check the robustness of our model. The obtained result shows that transport infrastructure has a significant long-term economic effect, and the short-run dynamics show the speed of adjustment is corrected by 81% each year toward the long-run path, and thereby transport infrastructure attracts FDI in Ethiopia. Moreover, FDI plays a significant mediating role, thereby increasing the economic growth performance of the country in Ethiopia. The study extends previous research and increases the validity of the findings by investigating the economic impact of transport infrastructure in the Ethiopian context. Moreover, this study is the first research study that explores the mediating role of FDI in the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth in Ethiopia

Evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates and application to monitor meteorological drought for the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in Ethiopia that significantly impacts the socioeconomic sector and various components of the environment. The overarching goal of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological drought using a satellite-derived rainfall product for the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN). The satellite rainfall product used in this study was selected through evaluation of five high-resolution products (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), African Rainfall Climatology and Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Africa Rainfall Estimate Climatology version 2 [ARC 2.0]). The statistical performance measuring techniques (i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient (r), mean error (ME), root mean square error (RMSE), and Bias) were used to evaluate the satellite rainfall products with the corresponding ground observation data at ten independent weather stations. The evaluation was carried out for 1998–2015 at dekadal, monthly, and seasonal time scales. The evaluation results of these satellite-derived rainfall products show there is a good agreement (r > 0.7) of CHIRPS and TARCAT rainfall products with ground observations in majority of the weather stations for all time steps. TARCAT showed a greater correlation coefficient (r > 0.70) in seven weather stations at a dekadal time scale whereas CHIRPS showed a greater correlation coefficient (r > 0.84) in nine weather stations at a monthly time scale. An excellent score of Bias (close to one) and mean error was observed in CHIRPS at dekadal, monthly and seasonal time scales in a majority of the stations. TARCAT performed well next to CHIRPS whereas PERSSIAN presented a weak performance under all the criteria. Thus, the CHIRPS rainfall product was selected and used to assess the spatial and temporal variability of meteorological drought in this study. The 3-month Z-Score values were calculated for each grid and used to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of drought. The result shows that the known historic drought years (2014–2015, 2009–2010, 1994–1995 and 1983–1984) were successfully indicated. Moreover, severe drought conditions were observed in the drought prone parts of the basin (i.e., central, eastern and southeastern). Hence, the CHIRPS rainfall product can be used as an alternative source of information in developing the grid-based drought monitoring tools for the basin that could help in developing early warning systems