The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage

The purpose of this research is to the problem of optimal sizing of energy storage required for compensation of wind farm generation variability. Using wind farm production data from the BPA, we assess the effect of forecast quality and economic dispatch timing on the size of storage and critical power rating required to nearly perfectly match the committed energy. We develop a Model-Predictive-Control (MPC) based operational model following NERC standard recommendations. Different forecasts are considered and compared from the storage sizing perspective. The results of our simulations can be fit by two simple relations, connecting the storage sizing with forecast error, wind variability, and the timescales of scheduling. A more accurate forecast reduces the storage sizing. However, diminishing returns are observed when the forecast error becomes comparable to natural wind variability within the commitment time interval. The proposed methodology can be extended to other systems with intermittent generation and controllable real or virtual storage.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (ECCS - 1128437)MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives (Seed Fund)Los Alamos National LaboratoryMIT Skoltech Initiativ

Risk Stratification, Measurable Residual Disease, and Outcomes of AML Patients with a Trisomy 8 Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Background: For most patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) harboring a trisomy 8 an allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a suitable and recommended consolidation therapy. However, comparative outcome analyses between patients with and without trisomy 8 undergoing allogeneic HSCT have not been performed so far. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinical features, outcomes, and measurable residual disease (MRD) of 659 AML (12%, n = 81, with a trisomy 8) patients subjected to allogeneic HSCT as a consolidation therapy. Results: The presence of a trisomy 8 associated with a trend for higher age at diagnosis, AML of secondary origin, lower white blood cell counts at diagnosis, worse ELN2017 genetic risk, wild-type NPM1, and mutated IDH1/2 and JAK2. Outcomes after allogeneic HSCT in the entire cohort did not differ between patients with a sole trisomy 8, trisomy 8 with additional cytogenetic aberrations or without a trisomy 8. A trisomy 8 did not affect outcomes within the three ELN2017 risk groups. In accordance with findings in unselected patient cohorts, persistent MRD at allogeneic HSCT in patients with a trisomy 8 identified individuals with a higher risk of relapse following allogeneic HSCT. Conclusions: Outcomes of trisomy 8 patients after allogeneic HSCT did not compare unfavorably to that of other AML patients following allogeneic HSCT. Rather than the presence or absence of a trisomy 8, additional genetic aberrations and MRD at HSCT define outcome differences and aid in informed treatment decisions

NGDEEP Epoch 1: Spatially Resolved Hα\alpha Observations of Disk and Bulge Growth in Star-Forming Galaxies at z∼z \sim 0.6-2.2 from JWST NIRISS Slitless Spectroscopy

We study the H$\alpha$ equivalent width, EW(H$\alpha$), maps of 19 galaxies at $0.6 < z < 2.2$ in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF) derived from NIRISS slitless spectroscopy as part of the Next Generation Deep Extragalactic Exploratory Public (NGDEEP) Survey. Our galaxies mostly lie on the star-formation main sequence with a stellar mass range of $\mathrm{10^9 - 10^{11} M_\odot}$, and are therefore characteristic of "typical" star-forming galaxies at these redshifts. Leveraging deep HST and JWST broad-band images, spanning 0.4-4 $\mu$m, we perform spatially-resolved fitting of the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for these galaxies and construct specific star formation rate (sSFR) and stellar-mass-weighted age maps. We compare these to the EW(H$\alpha$) maps with a spatial resolution of $\sim$1 kpc. The pixel-to-pixel EW(H$\alpha$) increases with increasing sSFR and with decreasing age, with the average trend slightly different from the relations derived from integrated fluxes of galaxies from the literature. Quantifying the radial profiles of EW(H$\alpha$), sSFR, and age, the majority (84%) of galaxies show positive EW(H$\alpha$) gradients, positive sSFR gradients, and negative age gradients, in line with the the inside-out quenching scenario. A few galaxies (16%) show inverse (and flat) trends possibly due to merging or starbursts. Comparing the distributions of EW(H$\alpha$) and sSFR to the star formation history models as a function of galactocentric radius, the central region of galaxies (e.g., their bulges) have experienced, at least one, rapid star-formation episodes, which leads to the formation of bulge, while their outer regions (e.g., disks) grow in a more steady-state. These results demonstrate the ability to study resolved star formation in distant galaxies with JWST NIRISS.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figure

Search for new particles in events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for new particles produced at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at root s = 13 TeV, using events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb(-1), collected in 2017-2018 with the CMS detector. Machine learning techniques are used to define separate categories for events with narrow jets from initial-state radiation and events with large-radius jets consistent with a hadronic decay of a W or Z boson. A statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data sample of 36 fb(-1), collected in 2016. No significant excess of events is observed with respect to the standard model background expectation determined from control samples in data. The results are interpreted in terms of limits on the branching fraction of an invisible decay of the Higgs boson, as well as constraints on simplified models of dark matter, on first-generation scalar leptoquarks decaying to quarks and neutrinos, and on models with large extra dimensions. Several of the new limits, specifically for spin-1 dark matter mediators, pseudoscalar mediators, colored mediators, and leptoquarks, are the most restrictive to date.Peer reviewe

Combined searches for the production of supersymmetric top quark partners in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A combination of searches for top squark pair production using proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1) collected by the CMS experiment, is presented. Signatures with at least 2 jets and large missing transverse momentum are categorized into events with 0, 1, or 2 leptons. New results for regions of parameter space where the kinematical properties of top squark pair production and top quark pair production are very similar are presented. Depending on themodel, the combined result excludes a top squarkmass up to 1325 GeV for amassless neutralino, and a neutralinomass up to 700 GeV for a top squarkmass of 1150 GeV. Top squarks with masses from 145 to 295 GeV, for neutralino masses from 0 to 100 GeV, with a mass difference between the top squark and the neutralino in a window of 30 GeV around the mass of the top quark, are excluded for the first time with CMS data. The results of theses searches are also interpreted in an alternative signal model of dark matter production via a spin-0 mediator in association with a top quark pair. Upper limits are set on the cross section for mediator particle masses of up to 420 GeV

Measurement of the top quark forward-backward production asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric and chromomagnetic moments in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV

Abstract The parton-level top quark (t) forward-backward asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric (d̂ t) and chromomagnetic (μ̂ t) moments have been measured using LHC pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected in the CMS detector in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. The linearized variable AFB(1) is used to approximate the asymmetry. Candidate t t ¯ events decaying to a muon or electron and jets in final states with low and high Lorentz boosts are selected and reconstructed using a fit of the kinematic distributions of the decay products to those expected for t t ¯ final states. The values found for the parameters are AFB(1)=0.048−0.087+0.095(stat)−0.029+0.020(syst),μ̂t=−0.024−0.009+0.013(stat)−0.011+0.016(syst), and a limit is placed on the magnitude of | d̂ t| &lt; 0.03 at 95% confidence level. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Measurement of t(t)over-bar normalised multi-differential cross sections in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV, and simultaneous determination of the strong coupling strength, top quark pole mass, and parton distribution functions

Peer reviewe

Probing effective field theory operators in the associated production of top quarks with a Z boson in multilepton final states at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe

An embedding technique to determine ττ backgrounds in proton-proton collision data

An embedding technique is presented to estimate standard model tau tau backgrounds from data with minimal simulation input. In the data, the muons are removed from reconstructed mu mu events and replaced with simulated tau leptons with the same kinematic properties. In this way, a set of hybrid events is obtained that does not rely on simulation except for the decay of the tau leptons. The challenges in describing the underlying event or the production of associated jets in the simulation are avoided. The technique described in this paper was developed for CMS. Its validation and the inherent uncertainties are also discussed. The demonstration of the performance of the technique is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions collected by CMS in 2017 at root s = 13 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 41.5 fb(-1).Peer reviewe

Measurement of the Splitting Function in &ITpp &ITand Pb-Pb Collisions at root&ITsNN&IT=5.02 TeV

Data from heavy ion collisions suggest that the evolution of a parton shower is modified by interactions with the color charges in the dense partonic medium created in these collisions, but it is not known where in the shower evolution the modifications occur. The momentum ratio of the two leading partons, resolved as subjets, provides information about the parton shower evolution. This substructure observable, known as the splitting function, reflects the process of a parton splitting into two other partons and has been measured for jets with transverse momentum between 140 and 500 GeV, in pp and PbPb collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV per nucleon pair. In central PbPb collisions, the splitting function indicates a more unbalanced momentum ratio, compared to peripheral PbPb and pp collisions.. The measurements are compared to various predictions from event generators and analytical calculations.Peer reviewe