The Incidence and Characteristics of Stroke in Urban-Dwelling Iranian Women

Background: Population-based data regarding stroke among women are scarce in developing countries. This study was designed to determine whether sex differences exist in stroke incidence, mortality, and recurrence. Methods: The Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study is a population-based cohort study in Iran. For a period of 1 year, all patients with stroke in 3 geographical regions in Mashhad were recruited and then followed up for 5 years. Age- and sex-specific crude incidence rates were standardized to the World Health Organization New World Population. Male-to-female incidence rate ratios were assessed for all age groups and all subtypes of first-ever stroke (FES). Results: The annual crude incidence rate of FES (per 100,000 population) was similar in men (144; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 129-160) and women (133; 95% CI: 119-149). Standardized FES annual incidence rates were 239 (95% CI: 213-267) for men and 225 (95% CI 200-253) for women, both greater than in most western countries. There were no significant differences in stroke recurrence or case-fatality between women and men during early and long-term follow-up. Conclusion: The similar incidence of stroke between men and women highlights the importance of equally prioritizing adequate preventive strategies for both sexes. The greater relative incidence of stroke in women in Mashhad compared with other countries warrants improvement of primary and secondary stroke prevention

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Evidence of Concomitantly Increasing Stroke and Dementia Prevalence among those 80 Years and Older in Ontario, Canada, 2003-04 to 2012-13

Among those aged 80 years and older in Ontario, Canada, stroke and dementia incidence declined concomitantly from 2002-03 to 2013-14. This study aimed to report the concurrent temporal trends of stroke and dementia prevalence in Ontario among the same age demographic. The prevalence of both stroke and dementia increased from 2003-04 to 2012-13 in both sexes and the magnitude in which prevalence of dementia increased over time exceeded that of stroke. The substantial increase in the prevalence of dementia may be because of increased recognition and diagnoses of dementia and increased survival of stroke patients who are at higher risk of developing dementia

Risk factors for ischemic stroke; results from 9 years of follow-up in a population based cohort of Iran

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data about the risk factors of stroke are sparse in the Middle East populations. We aimed to determine the potential risk factors and their population attributable fraction (PAF) for stroke in an Iranian population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cohort Study consisted of 1089 men and 1289 women, with mean (SD) ages of 61.1(7.6) and 59.0(6.7) years, respectively. Cox regression was implemented to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of each risk factor for stroke events in a stepwise method. We calculated a multivariate adjusted population attributable fraction (PAF) for any risk factors remained in the model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During 9.3 years of follow-up, 69 events of stroke occurred with incidence rates of 4.5 (95% CI: 3.3-6.0) and 2.5 (1.7-3.6) in 1000 person-years for men and women respectively. Among potential risk factors, only age ≥ 65 years (HR: 2.03, CI: 1.24-3.31), male gender (HR: 2.00, CI: 1.16-3.43), hypertension (HR: 3.03, CI: 1.76-5.22), diabetes mellitus (HR: 2.18, CI: 1.34-3.56), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (HR: 2.01, CI: 1.22-3.33), were independently associated with increased risk of stroke events in the total population. A paired homogeneity test showed that the hazard ratio of CKD did not differ from other independent risk factors. The PAFs were 29.7% and 25% for male gender and age ≥ 65 as non-modifiable and 48.6%, 29.1% and 22.0% for hypertension, CKD and diabetes as modifiable risk factors respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Following this population based study of Iranians, we demonstrated that among modifiable risk factors, CKD as well as hypertension and diabetes are the strongest independent predictors of stroke.</p