147 research outputs found
Parameter Bias from Unobserved Effects in the Multinomial Logit Model of Consumer Choice
Over the past two decades, validation of choice models has focused on predictive validity rather than parameter bias. In real-world validation of choice models, true parameter values are unknown, so examination of parameter bias is not possible. In contrast, the main focus of this study is parameter bias in simulated scanner-panel choice data with known parameter values. Study of parameter bias enables the assessment of a fundamental issue not addressed in the choice modeling literature-the extent to which the logit choice model is capable of distinguishing unobserved effects that give rise to persistence in observed choices (e.g., heterogeneity and state dependence). Although econometric theory provides some information about the causes of bias, the extent of such bias in typical scanner data applications remains unclear. The authors present an extensive simulation study that provides information on the extent of bias resulting from the misspecification of four unobserved effects that receive frequent attention in the literature-choice set effects, heterogeneity in preferences and market response, state dependence, and serial correlation. The authors outline implications for model builders and managers. In general, the potential for parameter bias in choice model applications appears to be high. Overall, a logit model with choice set effects and the Guadagni-Little loyalty variable produces the most valid parameter estimates
The validity of measures of self-reported well-being
Using a new analytic approach, construct validity estimates are developed for proposed social indicators of self-reported well-being. Two separate investigations are reported: the first involves data on six aspects of well-being each assessed by six methods from 222 adults in one geographic area; the second, a partial replication and extension, involves a more limited set of indicators measured on a sample of 1297 respondents representative of all American adults.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43686/1/11205_2004_Article_BF00286161.pd
The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment: Exploring Fundamental Symmetries of the Universe
The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early Universe, the
dynamics of the supernova bursts that produced the heavy elements necessary for
life and whether protons eventually decay --- these mysteries at the forefront
of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early
evolution of our Universe, its current state and its eventual fate. The
Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment (LBNE) represents an extensively developed
plan for a world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions. LBNE
is conceived around three central components: (1) a new, high-intensity
neutrino source generated from a megawatt-class proton accelerator at Fermi
National Accelerator Laboratory, (2) a near neutrino detector just downstream
of the source, and (3) a massive liquid argon time-projection chamber deployed
as a far detector deep underground at the Sanford Underground Research
Facility. This facility, located at the site of the former Homestake Mine in
Lead, South Dakota, is approximately 1,300 km from the neutrino source at
Fermilab -- a distance (baseline) that delivers optimal sensitivity to neutrino
charge-parity symmetry violation and mass ordering effects. This ambitious yet
cost-effective design incorporates scalability and flexibility and can
accommodate a variety of upgrades and contributions. With its exceptional
combination of experimental configuration, technical capabilities, and
potential for transformative discoveries, LBNE promises to be a vital facility
for the field of particle physics worldwide, providing physicists from around
the globe with opportunities to collaborate in a twenty to thirty year program
of exciting science. In this document we provide a comprehensive overview of
LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics
worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will
possess.Comment: Major update of previous version. This is the reference document for
LBNE science program and current status. Chapters 1, 3, and 9 provide a
comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the
landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate
and the capabilities it will possess. 288 pages, 116 figure
Development and validation of a targeted gene sequencing panel for application to disparate cancers
Next generation sequencing has revolutionised genomic studies of cancer, having facilitated the development of precision oncology treatments based on a tumour’s molecular profile. We aimed to develop a targeted gene sequencing panel for application to disparate cancer types with particular focus on tumours of the head and neck, plus test for utility in liquid biopsy. The final panel designed through Roche/Nimblegen combined 451 cancer-associated genes (2.01 Mb target region). 136 patient DNA samples were collected for performance and application testing. Panel sensitivity and precision were measured using well-characterised DNA controls (n = 47), and specificity by Sanger sequencing of the Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor Interacting Protein (AIP) gene in 89 patients. Assessment of liquid biopsy application employed a pool of synthetic circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA). Library preparation and sequencing were conducted on Illumina-based platforms prior to analysis with our accredited (ISO15189) bioinformatics pipeline. We achieved a mean coverage of 395x, with sensitivity and specificity of >99% and precision of >97%. Liquid biopsy revealed detection to 1.25% variant allele frequency. Application to head and neck tumours/cancers resulted in detection of mutations aligned to published databases. In conclusion, we have developed an analytically-validated panel for application to cancers of disparate types with utility in liquid biopsy
Inferring Market Structure from Customer Response to Competing and Complementary Products
We consider customer influences on market structure, arguing that market structure should explain the extent to which any given set of market offerings are substitutes or complements. We describe recent additions to the market structure analysis literature and identify promising directions for new research in market structure analysis. Impressive advances in data collection, statistical methodology and information technology provide unique opportunities for researchers to build market structure tools that can assist “real-time” marketing decision-making.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46981/1/11002_2004_Article_5088105.pd
Characterizing Prostate Cancer Risk Through Multi-Ancestry Genome-Wide Discovery of 187 Novel Risk Variants
The transferability and clinical value of genetic risk scores (GRSs) across populations remain limited due to an imbalance in genetic studies across ancestrally diverse populations. Here we conducted a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 156,319 prostate cancer cases and 788,443 controls of European, African, Asian and Hispanic men, reflecting a 57% increase in the number of non-European cases over previous prostate cancer genome-wide association studies. We identified 187 novel risk variants for prostate cancer, increasing the total number of risk variants to 451. An externally replicated multi-ancestry GRS was associated with risk that ranged from 1.8 (per standard deviation) in African ancestry men to 2.2 in European ancestry men. The GRS was associated with a greater risk of aggressive versus non-aggressive disease in men of African ancestry (P = 0.03). Our study presents novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci and a GRS with effective risk stratification across ancestry groups
Genome-wide analysis identifies 12 loci influencing human reproductive behavior.
The genetic architecture of human reproductive behavior-age at first birth (AFB) and number of children ever born (NEB)-has a strong relationship with fitness, human development, infertility and risk of neuropsychiatric disorders. However, very few genetic loci have been identified, and the underlying mechanisms of AFB and NEB are poorly understood. We report a large genome-wide association study of both sexes including 251,151 individuals for AFB and 343,072 individuals for NEB. We identified 12 independent loci that are significantly associated with AFB and/or NEB in a SNP-based genome-wide association study and 4 additional loci associated in a gene-based effort. These loci harbor genes that are likely to have a role, either directly or by affecting non-local gene expression, in human reproduction and infertility, thereby increasing understanding of these complex traits
Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have
fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in
25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16
regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of
correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP,
while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in
Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium
(LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region.
Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant
enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the
refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa,
an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of
PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent
signals within the same regio
New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.
Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms
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