Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Applications of recurrent neural networks in batch reactors. Part I: NARMA modelling of the dynamic behaviour of the heat transfer fluid

This paper is focused on the development of nonlinear models, using artificial neural networks, able to provide appropriate predictions when acting as process simulators. The dynamic behaviour of the heat transfer fluid temperature in a jacketed chemical reactor has been selected as a case study. Different structures of NARMA (Non-linear ARMA) models have been studied. The experimental results have allowed to carry out a comparison between the different neural approaches and a first-principles model. The best neural results are obtained using a parallel model structure based on a recurrent neural network architecture, which guarantees better dynamic approximations than currently employed neural models. The results suggest that parallel models built up with recurrent networks can be seen as an alternative to phenomenological models for simulating the dynamic behaviour of the heating/cooling circuits which change from batch installation to installation.Publicad

Metaheuristic design of feedforward neural networks: a review of two decades of research

Over the past two decades, the feedforward neural network (FNN) optimization has been a key interest among the researchers and practitioners of multiple disciplines. The FNN optimization is often viewed from the various perspectives: the optimization of weights, network architecture, activation nodes, learning parameters, learning environment, etc. Researchers adopted such different viewpoints mainly to improve the FNN's generalization ability. The gradient-descent algorithm such as backpropagation has been widely applied to optimize the FNNs. Its success is evident from the FNN's application to numerous real-world problems. However, due to the limitations of the gradient-based optimization methods, the metaheuristic algorithms including the evolutionary algorithms, swarm intelligence, etc., are still being widely explored by the researchers aiming to obtain generalized FNN for a given problem. This article attempts to summarize a broad spectrum of FNN optimization methodologies including conventional and metaheuristic approaches. This article also tries to connect various research directions emerged out of the FNN optimization practices, such as evolving neural network (NN), cooperative coevolution NN, complex-valued NN, deep learning, extreme learning machine, quantum NN, etc. Additionally, it provides interesting research challenges for future research to cope-up with the present information processing era

Training Multi-layer Spiking Neural Networks using NormAD based Spatio-Temporal Error Backpropagation

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) have garnered a great amount of interest for supervised and unsupervised learning applications. This paper deals with the problem of training multi-layer feedforward SNNs. The non-linear integrate-and-fire dynamics employed by spiking neurons make it difficult to train SNNs to generate desired spike trains in response to a given input. To tackle this, first the problem of training a multi-layer SNN is formulated as an optimization problem such that its objective function is based on the deviation in membrane potential rather than the spike arrival instants. Then, an optimization method named Normalized Approximate Descent (NormAD), hand-crafted for such non-convex optimization problems, is employed to derive the iterative synaptic weight update rule. Next, it is reformulated to efficiently train multi-layer SNNs, and is shown to be effectively performing spatio-temporal error backpropagation. The learning rule is validated by training $2$-layer SNNs to solve a spike based formulation of the XOR problem as well as training $3$-layer SNNs for generic spike based training problems. Thus, the new algorithm is a key step towards building deep spiking neural networks capable of efficient event-triggered learning.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figure