Neotectonics of Zindapir Anticline and Sulaiman Fold and Thrust Belt: Inferences from SRTM DEM

The current study deals with the significance of surface dynamics (SDs) and its relationship to tectonics and active erosion in Zindapir Anticline (ZPA) and neighboring Sulaiman Fold and Thrust Belt (SFTB) which is a direct result of transform plate movement between Indo-Pak continent and Eurasia. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission Digital Elevation Model SRTM DEM with 30 m resolution was employed to compute SDs; Isobase (IBL), drainage density (DD), relative relief (RR) and vertical dissection (VD) thematic maps for the study area. The results obtained show that the DD, RR, VD and IBL have higher values in north west, central segments and south west of the SFTB, whereas the Zindapir anticline represents dextral movement on its east side while sinistral sense of movement is observed on its western edge. High values of RR and VD correspond to highly incised topography with great surface roughness. The enhanced values of IBL and DD in the northwest, south west and central SFTB correspond to uplifted active topography segments and can trigger medium level earthquakes in this region. The conjugate movement of ZPA is an indication of its neotectonic nature and recent uplift is causing surface deformation which needs to be understood in the context of SFTB development as a result of India-Eurasia transform movemen

Collaborative Public Participatory Web Geographic Information System: A Groupware-Based Online Synchronous Collaboration to Support Municipal Planning

Co-PPGIS has a wide variety of applications like municipal planning, emergency response, public health and security, etc. The main focus of this paper is on the development and design of a web collaborative PPGIS (Co-PPGIS) infrastructure. As part of municipality’s planning and management services, Co-PPGIS is developed for real-time map sharing application system. Co-PPGIS is an effective and essential online meeting system for supporting group collaborations on geographic information such as maps and imageries and capturing and sharing of local/domain knowledge in real time. Co-PPGIS permits amalgamation of geospatial data and collaborator’s input in the form of geo-referenced notations. It incorporates coherent components such as map sharing, real-time chat, video conferencing, and geo-referenced textual and graphical notations. The study aims to focus on public participation and geo-collaboration facilitated with information sharing, interactive geo-conferencing, real-time map, and data sharing with tools to draw features or add annotation to the map while discussions, uploading documents, and live communication. Co-PPGIS provides an efficient and reliable platform that will significantly reduce the time to acquire, process, and analyze data. The significance of this study is to contribute to existing public participation practices, to municipal planning, to decision-making, or to geographic information science

Evaluation of Fractal Dimension and Topographic Surface Roughness (Vertical Dissection) in Astore-Deosai-Skardu Region in GIS Environment Using ASTER GDEM

Fractal investigation is a valuable technique to model and quantify the composite patterns of natural similarobjects. This study investigates Neotectonics using ASTER-GDEM. Fractal technique for extraction of topographicfractal dimension (Dtopo) and vertical dissection (Rtopo-surf) were used to assess the Neotectonics deformation.Geomorphological regions can be demarcated by using above mentioned procedures as they reveal the topographicevolutionary stages as an evaluation of topographic textures. The idea is to recognize the zones that are stronglyinfluenced by Neotectonics. Astore-Deosai-Skardu (ADS) region in Gilgit-Baltistan was selected for this purpose as itlies between MKT and MMT which is experiencing surface topographic deformation (STD) caused by anti-clock-wiseprogression and subduction of Indian plate beneath Eurasia. The results obtained illustrates that Dtopo and Rtopo-surf showanomalies in the ADS region that clearly represent a robust control of nearby MMT, MKT and KkF and highlights theirsignificance to describe regions vulnerable to Neotectonics and related deadly events threatening precious human livesand infrastructure damages

Architectural Design and Prototyping of Co-PPGIS: A Groupware-Based Online Synchronous Collaborative PPGIS to Support Municipality Development and Planning Management Workflows

Co-PPGIS has a wide variety of applications like municipal planning, emergency response, public health and security, etc. The main focus of this chapter is on the development and design of a Web Collaborative PPGIS (Co-PPGIS) infrastructure. As part of municipality’s planning and management services, Co-PPGIS is developed for real-time map sharing application system. Co-PPGIS is an effective and essential online meeting system for supporting group collaborations on geographic information such as maps and imageries, and capturing and sharing of local/domain knowledge in real time. Co-PPGIS permits amalgamation of geospatial data and collaborator’s input in the form of geo-referenced notations. It incorporates coherent components as map sharing, real-time chat, video conferencing, geo-referenced textual and graphical notations. The study aims to focus on public participation and geo-collaboration facilitated with information sharing, interactive geo-conferencing, real-time map, and data sharing with tools to draw features or add annotation to the map while discussions, uploading documents, and live communication. Co-PPGIS provides an efficient and reliable platform that will significantly reduce the time to acquire, process, and analyze data. The significance of this study is to contribute to existing public participation practices, to municipal planning, to decision-making, or to geographic information science

Socio – Political Context and Inferences from Remote Sensing in South Asia: A Study of Tectonic Induced Surface Deformation in SE-IKSZ

Natural or man‐made disasters are dreadful incidents that devastate lives, disturb the socioeconomic and socio-political structure of a society and preserve or erase developments and gains based on decades, within few minutes. A catastrophe has the capacity to affect existing general population to their base, parting an occasion for self-investigation and reassessment of their framework and composition. This study signifies the Radar Digital Elevation Model centered pattern of drainage network to appraise the catastrophic landslide events due to the 2005 earthquake in Neelum-Jhelum Valley in SE-Indus Kohistan Zone north of Pakistan. This investigation highlights zones affected by the earthquake and vulnerable to landslides by utilizing Hypsometric integrals (HI values) and Hack SL-gradient techniques that are proficient in detecting erosion, land mass and tectonic movements. Dataset principally includes “Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)” Digital Elevation Model having pixel resolution of 90 meters. Hypsometric investigation brings evidence related to the deformation periods of a geographical stage. To accomplish this objective, D8 method was used, 355 subbasins of 4th Strahler order, from 5th Strahler order 75 subbasins and from 6th Strahler order 15 subbasins were delineated. To appraise the indentations of erosional scarps, Hypsometric curves (HC) and Hypsometric integrals (HI) for all distinct subbasins were computed. Variable topographic elevations (Maximun, minimum and mean) were determined to decipher the HI values. The HCs are characterized as convex up, S shaped and concave down curves. Curvature of convex up symbolizes a lesser amount of eroded or deformed subbasins (comparatively young geography), and are located in conjunction of the North-Eastern anticline side of the Muzaffarabad that indicates the tectonic behavior of HKS, however S-shaped curvatures denote the transitional stage between the convex up and concave down deformational stage. The curvatures of concave down represents extreme deformation phase and are located west and eastern side of HKS

Drought Risk Assessment in the Khushab Region of Pakistan Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Geospatial Methods

Drought is a harmful and slow natural phenomenon that has significant effects on the economy, social life,agriculture and environment of the country. Due to its slow process it is difficult to study this phenomenon. RemoteSensing and GIS tools play a key role in studying different hazards like droughts. The main objective of the study wasto investigate drought risk by using GIS and Remote Sensing techniques in district Khushab, Pakistan. Landsat ETMimages for the year 2003, 2009 and 2015 were utilized for spatial and temporal analysis of agricultural andmeteorological drought. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) andrainfall anomaly indices were calculated to identify the drought prone areas in the study area. To monitormeteorological drought SPI values were used and NDVI was calculated for agricultural drought. These indices wereintegrated to compute the spatial and temporal drought maps. Three zones; no drought, slight drought and moderatedrought were identified. Final drought map shows that 30.21% of the area faces moderate drought, 28.36% faces slightdrought while nearly 41.3% faces no drought situation. Drought prevalence and severity is present more in the southernpart of Khushab district than the northern part. Most of the northern part is not under any type of drought. Thus, anoverall outcome of this study shows that risk areas can be assessed appropriately by integration of various data sourcesand thereby management plans can be prepared to deal with the hazard

MONITORING SPATIOTEMPORAL AND MICRO-LEVEL CLIMATIC VARIATIONS IN LAHORE AND SUBRUBS USING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTI-SOURCE DATA

This research is aimed at monitoring of spatio-temporal and micro-level climatic variations for the Lahore region. The monitoring period spans six decades from year 1950 to 2010. For accomplishing the study objectives, multi-concept satellite imageries, meteorological data and anthropogenic parameters were analyzed in detail. A set of four imagery datasets, three from Landsat sensors and one from the ASTER, were digitally processed for major land cover features. Results of digital image-classification revealed prominent variations in various landcover features, specifically in terms of increased urbanization at the expense of oxygen-rich vegetal cover in the form of previously existing agriculture activity. The analysis of meteorological data for the said period indicates an increase of 2.0oC in the average minimum temperature and decrease of 0.6oC in the average maximum temperature of Lahore. The study proposes that rapidly increasing urbanization is causing a drastic increase in the emission of CO2 and smog. The smog can be observed as dark-gray inversion layer underpinning greenhouse effect and causing increase in the minimum temperature. All these factors lead to local climate change.  Such effects are contributing towards the local climate change along with the increased urbanization, traffic density, de-vegetation and construction/ earth-moving practices. Resultantly, the use of remotely-sensed imagery and multi-source data facilitates in estimating the spatiotemporal variations in the micro-level climate. &nbsp

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic