Climate and society in European history

This article evaluates 165 studies from various disciplines, published between 2000 and 2019, which in different ways link past climate variability and change to human history in medieval and early modern Europe (here, c. 700–1815 CE). Within this review, we focus on the identification and interpretation of causal links between changes in climate and in human societies. A revised climate–society impact order model of historical climate–society interactions is presented and applied to structure the findings of the past 20 years' scholarship. Despite considerable progress in research about past climate–society relations, partly expedited by new palaeoclimate data, we identify limitations to knowledge, including geographical biases, a disproportional attention to extremely cold periods, and a focus on crises. Furthermore, recent scholarship shows that the limitations with particular disciplinary approaches can be successfully overcome through interdisciplinary collaborations. We conclude the article by proposing recommendations for future directions of research in the climatic change–human history nexus

Editorial : Past interactions between climate, land use, and vegetation

Peer reviewe

Historical Spruce Abundance in Central Europe: A Combined Dendrochronological and Palynological Approach

Spruce is the most cultivated tree species in modern forestry in Central Europe, since it has the ability to grow on many soil types with profitable biomass accumulation. However, even-aged and uniform spruce forests are affected by recurring droughts and associated biotic stressors leading to large-scale diebacks across Central Europe causing controversies among foresters and nature conservationists. We investigate the role of spruce in historical woodlands by using 15666 spruce timbers from historical buildings and on the basis of pollen-based land cover estimates using the REVEALS model from 157 pollen sites in southern Central Europe. Start and end dates of the spruce timber samples and their dendrological characteristics (age, growth rates and stem diameters) were used to obtain information on past forest structures. Tree rings and REVEALS estimates are combined at a spatial scale of 1° × 1° resolution, grouped in four sub-regions, and a temporal resolution of 100-year time windows starting from 1150 to 1850 CE. We found that spruce dominates the species assemblage of construction timber with almost 41% and that the harvest age varies little through time, whereas a declining trend in growth rates and stem diameters are observed toward times before modern forestry. Temporal and regional differences in spruce abundance and building activity were found highlighting periods of (i) land abandonment and forest expansion in the 14th century, (ii) increased wood consumption during the 16th century due to population increase and beginning industrial developments, (iii) a forest recovery during and after the Thirty years' war, and (iv) afforestation efforts from the 1650s onwards. Furthermore, this study shows that spruce was constantly present in the study area in most studied sub-regions for the last 800 years. We demonstrate the need of combining tree-ring and pollen data to identify spatiotemporal patterns in spruce abundance and utilization.publishedVersio

Regional Patterns of Late Medieval and Early Modern European Building Activity Revealed by Felling Dates

Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Andrea Seim, Willy Tegel, Paul J. Krusic, Claudia Baittinger, Christelle Belingard, Mauro Bernabei, Niels Bonde, Paul Borghaerts, Yann Couturier, Anne Crone, Sjoerd van Daalen, Aoife Daly, Petra Doeve, Marta Domínguez-Delmás, Jean-Louis Edouard, Thomas Frank, Christian Ginzler, Michael Grabner, Friederike M. Gschwind, Kristof Haneca, Anton Hansson, Franz Herzig, Karl-Uwe Heussner, Jutta Hofmann, David Houbrechts, Ryszard Jerzy Kaczka, Tomáš Kolář, Raymond Kontic, Tomáš Kyncl, Vincent Labbas, Per Lagerås, Yannick Le Digol, Melaine Le Roy, Hanns Hubert Leuschner, Hans Linderson, Francis Ludlow, Axel Marais, Coralie M. Mills, Mechthild Neyses-Eiden, Kurt Nicolussi, Christophe Perrault, Klaus Pfeifer, Michal Rybníček, Andreas Rzepecki, Martin Schmidhalter, Mathias Seifert, Lisa Shindo, Barbara Spyt, Josué Susperregi, Helene Løvstrand Svarva, Terje Thun, Felix Walder, Tomasz Ważny, Elise Werthe, Thorsten Westphal, Rob Wilson, Ulf BüntgenAlthough variations in building activity are a useful indicator of societal well-being and demographic development, historical datasets for larger regions and longer periods are still rare. Here, we present 54,045 annually precise dendrochronological felling dates from historical construction timber from across most of Europe between 1250 and 1699 CE to infer variations in building activity. We use geostatistical techniques to compare spatiotemporal dynamics in past European building activity against independent demographic, economic, social and climatic data. We show that the felling dates capture major geographical patterns of demographic trends, especially in regions with dense data coverage. A particularly strong negative association is found between grain prices and the number of felling dates. In addition, a significant positive association is found between the number of felling dates and mining activity. These strong associations, with well-known macro-economic indicators from pre-industrial Europe, corroborate the use of felling dates as an independent source for exploring large-scale fluctuations of societal well-being and demographic development. Three prominent examples are the building boom in the Hanseatic League region of northeastern Germany during the 13th century, the onset of the Late Medieval Crisis in much of Europe c. 1300, and the cessation of building activity in large parts of central Europe during armed conflicts such as the Thirty Years’ War (1618–1648 CE). Despite new insights gained from our European-wide felling date inventory, further studies are needed to investigate changes in construction activity of high versus low status buildings, and of urban versus rural buildings, and to compare those results with a variety of historical documentary sources and natural proxy archives

Higher groundwater levels in western Europe characterize warm periods in the Common Era.

Funder: Projekt DEALHydroclimate, the interplay of moisture supply and evaporative demand, is essential for ecological and agricultural systems. The understanding of long-term hydroclimate changes is, however, limited because instrumental measurements are inadequate in length to capture the full range of precipitation and temperature variability and by the uneven distribution of high-resolution proxy records in space and time. Here, we present a tree-ring-based reconstruction of interannual to centennial-scale groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations for south-western Germany and north-eastern France. Continuously covering the period of 265-2017 CE, our new record from the Upper Rhine Valley shows that the warm periods during late Roman, medieval and recent times were characterized by higher GWLs. Lower GWLs were found during the cold periods of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA; 536 to ~ 660 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; between medieval and recent warming). The reconstructed GWL fluctuations are in agreement with multidecadal North Atlantic climate variability derived from independent proxies. Warm and wet hydroclimate conditions are found during warm states of the Atlantic Ocean and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation on decadal scales

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability

Metabolic Syndrome and Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia: Evidence of a Potential Relationship, Hypothesized Etiology, and Prevention

Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is highly prevalent in older men and causes substantial adverse effects on health. The pathogenesis of this disease is not totally clear. Recent reports have suggested a possible relationship between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and BPH. Single components of MetS (obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and insulin resistance) as well as the syndrome itself may predispose patients to a higher risk of BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). This may stem from changes in insulin resistance, increased autonomic activity, impaired nitrergic innervation, increased Rho kinase activity, pro-inflammatory status, and changes in sex hormones that occur in association with MetS. However, the exact underlying mechanisms that regulate the potential relationship between MetS and BPH/LUTS still need to be clarified. Increased physical activity and dietary strategies may help in decreasing the incidence of MetS and its impact on BPH/LUTS. However, differences in the definitions used to address the examined predictors and endpoints preclude the possibility of arriving at definitive conclusions

European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE

The long-term relationship between temperature and rainfall variables (hydroclimate) remains uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is critical with regard to projecting future drought and flood risks. Here we assess northern Hemisphere summertime co-variability patterns between temperature and rainfall, over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find the temperature–hydroclimate relationship, in both the instrumental and proxt data to be more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations. In comp[arison to instrumental climate data, climate model simulations reveal a more negative co-variability between temperature and hydroclimate, across all timescales both lower and higher frequency. The reconstructions exhibit more positive co-variability. Despite observed differences in the temperature–hydroclimate co-variability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, all data types share similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, all of which indicate the common influence of external forcing of the climate system. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks

Global perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Todd, R. E., Chavez, F. P., Clayton, S., Cravatte, S., Goes, M., Greco, M., Ling, X., Sprintall, J., Zilberman, N., V., Archer, M., Aristegui, J., Balmaseda, M., Bane, J. M., Baringer, M. O., Barth, J. A., Beal, L. M., Brandt, P., Calil, P. H. R., Campos, E., Centurioni, L. R., Chidichimo, M. P., Cirano, M., Cronin, M. F., Curchitser, E. N., Davis, R. E., Dengler, M., deYoung, B., Dong, S., Escribano, R., Fassbender, A. J., Fawcett, S. E., Feng, M., Goni, G. J., Gray, A. R., Gutierrez, D., Hebert, D., Hummels, R., Ito, S., Krug, M., Lacan, F., Laurindo, L., Lazar, A., Lee, C. M., Lengaigne, M., Levine, N. M., Middleton, J., Montes, I., Muglia, M., Nagai, T., Palevsky, H., I., Palter, J. B., Phillips, H. E., Piola, A., Plueddemann, A. J., Qiu, B., Rodrigues, R. R., Roughan, M., Rudnick, D. L., Rykaczewski, R. R., Saraceno, M., Seim, H., Sen Gupta, A., Shannon, L., Sloyan, B. M., Sutton, A. J., Thompson, L., van der Plas, A. K., Volkov, D., Wilkin, J., Zhang, D., & Zhang, L. Global perspectives on observing ocean boundary current systems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2010); 423, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00423.Ocean boundary current systems are key components of the climate system, are home to highly productive ecosystems, and have numerous societal impacts. Establishment of a global network of boundary current observing systems is a critical part of ongoing development of the Global Ocean Observing System. The characteristics of boundary current systems are reviewed, focusing on scientific and societal motivations for sustained observing. Techniques currently used to observe boundary current systems are reviewed, followed by a census of the current state of boundary current observing systems globally. The next steps in the development of boundary current observing systems are considered, leading to several specific recommendations.RT was supported by The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research at WHOI. FC was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. MGo was funded by NSF and NOAA/AOML. XL was funded by China’s National Key Research and Development Projects (2016YFA0601803), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41490641, 41521091, and U1606402), and the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (2017ASKJ01). JS was supported by NOAA’s Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program (Award NA15OAR4320071). DZ was partially funded by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063. BS was supported by IMOS and CSIRO’s Decadal Climate Forecasting Project. We gratefully acknowledge the wide range of funding sources from many nations that have enabled the observations and analyses reviewed here