Assessing Thermal Performance of Mud House Using ECOTECT Analysis - A Case of Vernacular Architecture in Northern Bangladesh

Mud is one of the predominant vernacular building materials in rural settlements in Bangladesh, especially in the northern region because of its unique thermal performance. Mud being a very cheap, abundant, and environmentally friendly building material, is used extensively for building construction in the subcontinent. Mud as a building material has high heat capacity and low thermal conductivity which enhances the thermal stability of earthen building compared to other materials. This paper aims at analyzing the thermal performance of residential earthen buildings in northern Bangladesh and providing a basis for designing mud houses in rural Bangladesh according to environmental considerations. The resultant data from thermal simulation conducted in ‘Ecotect Analysis’ software shows that mud houses keep the indoor environment comparatively cooler than the outdoor warm environment during summer and the opposite during winter season which results in proper thermal comfort for the inhabitants

A Numerical Assessment of Daylight Performance of Office Buildings in Dhaka, Bangladesh: Introducing Light Shelves to Enhance Daylighting Quality

Daylighting is one of the significant factors affecting the working environment in an office which is recognized as a vital source of energy savings. Occupants require proper daylight for desk jobs in their working spaces which largely depends on a set of internal and external aspects. This paper aims at analyzing the natural daylighting performance of the office buildings in Dhaka and providing a few design options concerning light shelves in order to enhance interior daylighting performance. A total of eleven commercial office buildings were selected in the survey based on a set of building parameters that has significant effects on daylighting. Among those selected buildings, one typical office building was further analyzed and simulated for a more detailed assessment of daylighting performance. Daylighting performance is assessed in terms of illuminance value concerning useful daylighting illuminance. The resultant data shows the inner office region lags in terms of illuminance value and is not very suitable for office works. Hence, light shelves were introduced as architectural design elements which were then simulated at different heights and angles to find out the optimum solution for daylighting enhancement which will save electrical lighting energy consumption

Estimation of International Financial Integration: Evidence from European Countries

In the current state of the economy, securities and trade flows between countries exist fluently, however, such channels of flow do not completely map one-to-one without some attenuation, thereby preventing the notion of complete financial markets. This paper develops the econometric framework to identify the parameter which measures the degree of (imperfect) international risk-sharing, and employs nonlinear econometric methods to estimate for the values of the parameter across European countries. Our findings show how simple econometric methods can give a sensible measure of this risk-sharing, which can be used as a basis for economic model calibrations when solving DSGE models. Moreover, this paper lays the groundwork for the possibility of implementing further sophisticated nonlinear estimations to improve upon the measures already computed

Estimation of International Financial Integration: Evidence from European Countries

In the current state of the economy, securities and trade flows between countries exist fluently, however, such channels of flow do not completely map one-to-one without some attenuation, thereby preventing the notion of complete financial markets. This paper develops the econometric framework to identify the parameter which measures the degree of (imperfect) international risk-sharing, and employs nonlinear econometric methods to estimate for the values of the parameter across European countries. Our findings show how simple econometric methods can give a sensible measure of this risk-sharing, which can be used as a basis for economic model calibrations when solving DSGE models. Moreover, this paper lays the groundwork for the possibility of implementing further sophisticated nonlinear estimations to improve upon the measures already computed

A Quantitative Evaluation of Urban Green Spaces in Rajshahi, Bangladesh

Being a developing country, Bangladesh has faced rapid growth in urbanization in the past few decades. This results in decreasing parks and other green spaces in urban areas. Rajshahi is one of the divisional districts in Bangladesh that is prone to rapid urbanization, though the urbanization rate of Rajshahi is less than the other megacities in Bangladesh. As a result, it is important to preserve the parks in Rajshahi before they are diminished. To assess the quantity and preserve the present urban green infrastructure in Rajshahi, it is necessary to identify and categorize them according to their regional characteristics. This paper aims at evaluating the urban green spaces in Rajshahi and finding out whether the existing urban green spaces are enough to meet the goal of a sustainable city. It is done by analyzing the regional characteristics of urban parks and green spaces located in Rajshahi, Bangladesh, based on GIS data and categorizing them according to their physical size to determine their catchment area. Statistical data and aerial images are processed and simulated through ArcGIS software and correlated with cadastral plans for accurate identification. Explanatory factors regarding UGS loss in a specific region are also investigated using socio-economic, cultural, and geographic in order to find out the reason for UGS change. The resultant data shows that only "6.14 " m2/capita urban open space is available for the urban inhabitants which are insufficient for achieving sustainability goals and should be preserved in order to enhance the liveability of the city

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential.Peer reviewe

Trends in future health financing and coverage: future health spending and universal health coverage in 188 countries, 2016–40

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040. Methods: We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country's UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios. Findings: In the reference scenario, global health spending was projected to increase from US$10 trillion (95$20 trillion (18 trillion to 22 trillion) in 2040. Per capita health spending was projected to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 4·2% (3·4–5·1) per year, followed by lower-middle-income countries (4·0%, 3·6–4·5) and low-income countries (2·2%, 1·7–2·8). Despite global growth, per capita health spending was projected to range from only $40 (24–65) to$413 (263–668) in 2040 in low-income countries, and from $140 (90–200) to$1699 (711–3423) in lower-middle-income countries. Globally, the share of health spending covered by pooled resources would range widely, from 19·8% (10·3–38·6) in Nigeria to 97·9% (96·4–98·5) in Seychelles. Historical performance on the UHC index was significantly associated with pooled resources per capita. Across the alternative scenarios, we estimate UHC reaching between 5·1 billion (4·9 billion to 5·3 billion) and 5·6 billion (5·3 billion to 5·8 billion) lives in 2030. Interpretation: We chart future scenarios for health spending and its relationship with UHC. Ensuring that all countries have sustainable pooled health resources is crucial to the achievement of UHC. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Child growth failure (CGF), manifested as stunting, wasting, and underweight, is associated with high 5 mortality and increased risks of cognitive, physical, and metabolic impairments. Children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face the highest levels of CGF globally. Here we illustrate national and subnational variation of under-5 CGF indicators across LMICs, providing 2000–2017 annual estimates mapped at a high spatial resolution and aggregated to policy-relevant administrative units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the World Health 10 Organization’s ambitious Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and rates of progress exist across regions, countries, and within countries; our maps identify areas where high prevalence persists even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where subnational disparities exist and the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning locally 15 tailored interventions and efficient directing of resources to accelerate progress in reducing CGF and its health implications

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations