Exploring Prompting Large Language Models as Explainable Metrics

This paper describes the IUST NLP Lab submission to the Prompting Large Language Models as Explainable Metrics Shared Task at the Eval4NLP 2023 Workshop on Evaluation & Comparison of NLP Systems. We have proposed a zero-shot prompt-based strategy for explainable evaluation of the summarization task using Large Language Models (LLMs). The conducted experiments demonstrate the promising potential of LLMs as evaluation metrics in Natural Language Processing (NLP), particularly in the field of summarization. Both few-shot and zero-shot approaches are employed in these experiments. The performance of our best provided prompts achieved a Kendall correlation of 0.477 with human evaluations in the text summarization task on the test data. Code and results are publicly available on GitHub.Comment: 9 pages, Eval4NLP 202

LXMERT Model Compression for Visual Question Answering

Large-scale pretrained models such as LXMERT are becoming popular for learning cross-modal representations on text-image pairs for vision-language tasks. According to the lottery ticket hypothesis, NLP and computer vision models contain smaller subnetworks capable of being trained in isolation to full performance. In this paper, we combine these observations to evaluate whether such trainable subnetworks exist in LXMERT when fine-tuned on the VQA task. In addition, we perform a model size cost-benefit analysis by investigating how much pruning can be done without significant loss in accuracy. Our experiment results demonstrate that LXMERT can be effectively pruned by 40%-60% in size with 3% loss in accuracy.Comment: To appear in The Fourth Annual West Coast NLP (WeCNLP) Summi

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Evaluation of the Efficiency of Integrated Fixed-Film Activated Sludge reactor for Treatment of Wastewater from Vegetable Oil Industries

Background & Aims of the Study: Wastewater discharges from vegetable oil industry cause environmental problem, including pollution of groundwater and surface water. Therefore, this study evaluated the efficiency of Integrated Fixed-Film Activated Sludge (IFAS) reactor for treatment of wastewater from Varamin vegetable oil industries. Materials & Methods: This was an experimental study. The anaerobic reactor and the aerobic reactor with sedimentation unit were made from polyethylene and plexiglas. The IFAS reactor was packed with ratio 70% by Honeycomb packing F 19-1. To create optimal growth conditions for microorganisms in anaerobic digestion, the COD/N/P ratio was adjusted to 300/5/1. Sampling and analysis of the total of the parameters studied at the system stability time during different times from the pilot output. Results: The results showed the high removal efficiency of the COD, BOD and TSS (97.9%, 98.2% and 98.8 %, for 2 day anaerobic and 8 hrs aerobic, respectively). Also, the highest COD removal efficiency was observed for these three parameters in the IFAS system at HRT 8 hrs aerobic (>99.7%, >97.7% and 97.6 %, respectively). Conclusion: In general, the results showed that industrial wastewater treatment methods using the IFAS biological reactor are a suitable method for the removal of pollutants and can replace conventional methods. Also, the efficiency of removing COD, BOD and TSS from plant effluent has been at the optimum level for all retention time managed by the IFAS system

Effect of Haemophilus influenzae Type b Vaccination on Nasopharyngeal Carriage Rate in Children, Tehran, 2019

Background. Haemophilus influenzae (H. influenzae) strains, which commonly reside as commensals within the human pharynx and can remain as an asymptomatic carrier, but become invasive leading to pneumonia, septic arthritis, or meningitis. The Pentavac (pentavalent vaccine, manufactured by India, SII (DTwP-HepB-Hib)) was introduced to the Iranian National Immunization Plan in November 2014. The aim of this study is to investigate H. influenzae type b (Hib) carrier rate among children under 6 years old in Tehran. Methods. This cross-sectional study was performed on 902 children including vaccinated/unvaccinated in the age of 6 months to 6 years, in Tehran. Sampling was performed from July 2019 to September 2019. Nasopharyngeal samples were taken from children by sterile swab. The PCR method was used to extract DNA. Then, all H. influenzae isolates were initially confirmed by molecular tests. BexA was used to distinguish typeable H. influenzae strains from nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi). Results. A total of 902 children were enrolled in the study: 452 were female (51%). H. influenzae carriage rate was 267 (29%), of that 150 samples (16.6%) were typeable. The nasopharyngeal Hib carrier rate in the children was 2.6% (24/902). 262 cases did not receive Hib vaccine. Analysis in nonnursery’s children aged 4 to 6 (unvaccinated) years showed that the lower educational level of father, mother, and family number correlated with increased odds of colonization of children with Hib. Conclusion. Our findings showed a significant decrease (60%) in the overall Hib nasopharyngeal carriage in healthy children under six years after 5 years after the start of Hib vaccination

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation