High Resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to Sulphadoxine/Pyrimethamine in Northern Tanzania and the Emergence of dhps Resistance Mutation at Codon 581

BACKGROUND: Sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) a widely used treatment for uncomplicated malaria and recommended for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy, is being investigated for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants (IPTi). High levels of drug resistance to SP have been reported from north-eastern Tanzania associated with mutations in parasite genes. This study compared the in vivo efficacy of SP in symptomatic 6-59 month children with uncomplicated malaria and in asymptomatic 2-10 month old infants. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An open label single arm (SP) standard 28 day in vivo WHO antimalarial efficacy protocol was used in 6 to 59 months old symptomatic children and a modified protocol used in 2 to 10 months old asymptomatic infants. Enrolment was stopped early (87 in the symptomatic and 25 in the asymptomatic studies) due to the high failure rate. Molecular markers were examined for recrudescence, re-infection and markers of drug resistance and a review of literature of studies looking for the 581G dhps mutation was carried out. In symptomatic children PCR-corrected early treatment failure was 38.8% (95% CI 26.8-50.8) and total failures by day 28 were 82.2% (95% CI 72.5-92.0). There was no significant difference in treatment failures between asymptomatic and symptomatic children. 96% of samples carried parasites with mutations at codons 51, 59 and 108 in the dhfr gene and 63% carried a double mutation at codons 437 and 540. 55% carried a third mutation with the addition of a mutation at codon 581 in the dhps gene. This triple: triple haplotype maybe associated with earlier treatment failure. CONCLUSION: In northern Tanzania SP is a failed drug for treatment and its utility for prophylaxis is doubtful. The study found a new combination of parasite mutations that maybe associated with increased and earlier failure. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00361114

Global burden of hypertension and systolic blood pressure of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015

Importance Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). Loss of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 148 million (95% UI, 134-162 million) to 211 million (95% UI, 193-231 million), and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% UI, 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher

Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10-54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underlying causes of maternal death and four timing categories, improving estimation methods since GBD 2013 for adult all-cause mortality, HIV-related maternal mortality, and late maternal death. Secondary analyses then allowed systematic examination of drivers of trends, including the relation between maternal mortality and coverage of specific reproductive health-care services as well as assessment of observed versus expected maternal mortality as a function of Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Findings Only ten countries achieved MDG 5, but 122 of 195 countries have already met SDG 3.1. Geographical disparities widened between 1990 and 2015 and, in 2015, 24 countries still had a maternal mortality ratio greater than 400. The proportion of all maternal deaths occurring in the bottom two SDI quintiles, where haemorrhage is the dominant cause of maternal death, increased from roughly 68% in 1990 to more than 80% in 2015. The middle SDI quintile improved the most from 1990 to 2015, but also has the most complicated causal profile. Maternal mortality in the highest SDI quintile is mostly due to other direct maternal disorders, indirect maternal disorders, and abortion, ectopic pregnancy, and/or miscarriage. Historical patterns suggest achievement of SDG 3.1 will require 91% coverage of one antenatal care visit, 78% of four antenatal care visits, 81% of in-facility delivery, and 87% of skilled birth attendance. Interpretation Several challenges to improving reproductive health lie ahead in the SDG era. Countries should establish or renew systems for collection and timely dissemination of health data; expand coverage and improve quality of family planning services, including access to contraception and safe abortion to address high adolescent fertility; invest in improving health system capacity, including coverage of routine reproductive health care and of more advanced obstetric care-including EmOC; adapt health systems and data collection systems to monitor and reverse the increase in indirect, other direct, and late maternal deaths, especially in high SDI locations; and examine their own performance with respect to their SDI level, using that information to formulate strategies to improve performance and ensure optimum reproductive health of their population.Peer reviewe

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3.3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.1-3.4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2.6 million per year (range 2.5-2.8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38.8 million (95% UI 37.6-40.4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1.8 million deaths (95% UI 1.7-1.9 million) in 2005, to 1.2 million deaths (1.1-1.3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licensePeer reviewe

Eruption frequency and magnitude in a geothermally active continental rift: The Bora-Baricha-Tullu Moye volcanic complex, Main Ethiopian Rift

Many Quaternary silicic volcanoes in the Main Ethiopian Rift pose a potential risk due to the poorly known eruptive histories of the volcanoes in combination with a high population density. In this study we provide new constraints on the Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive history of the Bora-Baricha-Tullu Moye (BBTM) volcanic complex located in the central portion of the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). BBTM constitutes three main silicic edifices (i.e. Bora, Baricha and Tullu Moye) and numerous smaller vents (including Oda and Werdi). Tephra deposits from these vents are several centimetres to meters in thickness in currently densely populated regions and where geothermal development is taking place. We present new field observations in addition to physical, petrographic, geochemical and geochronological data. BBTM experienced at least 27 explosive eruptions, of varying magnitude, in the last ca. 100 ky. The two oldest tephra deposits in our compiled stratigraphy are associated with large-magnitude, and possibly caldera-forming eruptions. The youngest of these (Meki) occurred at 107.7 ± 8.8 (2σ) ka, which makes it the youngest caldera-forming eruption identified in the Central MER so far. During the post-caldera stage, BBTM underwent at least 25 eruptions sourced from the Baricha (9 eruptions), Bora (3), Oda (8), Werdi (3) and Tullu Moye (2) edifices. The return period of explosive activity in BBTM is thus at least one moderate-to-large explosive eruption every 4000 yr. Well-exposed units have estimated eruption magnitudes (M) that are 4 to 5, while smaller-scale eruptions reach up to 2.5 and are exclusively preserved near the Tullu Moye vent. The tephra was dispersed up to 20 km from the volcanic complex suggesting that more than one hundred thousand people could be exposed to tephra fall and pyroclastic density current hazards from future of similar-magnitude eruptions in this area