Modeling dynamic community acceptance of mining using agent-based modeling

This research attempts to provide fundamental understanding into the relationship between perceived sustainability of mineral projects and community acceptance. The main objective is to apply agent-based modeling (ABM) and discrete choice modeling to understand changes in community acceptance over time due to changes in community demographics and perceptions. This objective focuses on: 1) formulating agent utility functions for ABM, based on discrete choice theory; 2) applying ABM to account for the effect of information diffusion on community acceptance; and 3) explaining the relationship between initial conditions, topology, and rate of interactions, on one hand, and community acceptance on the other hand. To achieve this objective, the research relies on discrete choice theory, agent-based modeling, innovation and diffusion theory, and stochastic processes. Discrete choice models of individual preferences of mining projects were used to formulate utility functions for this research. To account for the effect of information diffusion on community acceptance, an agent-based model was developed to describe changes in community acceptance over time, as a function of changing demographics and perceived sustainability impacts. The model was validated with discrete choice experimental data on acceptance of mining in Salt Lake City, Utah. The validated model was used in simulation experiments to explain the model\u27s sensitivity to initial conditions, topology, and rate of interactions. The research shows that the model, with the base case social network, is more sensitive to homophily and number of early adopters than average degree (number of friends). Also, the dynamics of information diffusion are sensitive to differences in clustering in the social networks. Though the research examined the effect of three networks that differ due to the type of homophily, it is their differences in clustering due to homophily that was correlated to information diffusion dynamics --Abstract, page iii

Responsiveness of Mining Community Acceptance Model to Key Parameter Changes

The mining industry has difficulties predicting changes in the level of community acceptance of its projects over time. These changes are due to changes in the society and individual perceptions around these mines as a result of the mines\u27 environmental and social impacts. Agent-based modeling can be used to facilitate better understanding of how community acceptance changes with changing mine environmental impacts. This work investigates the sensitivity of an agent-based model (ABM) for predicting changes in community acceptance of a mining project due to information diffusion to key input parameters. Specifically, this study investigates the responsiveness of the ABM to average degree (total number of friends) of the social network, close neighbour ratio (a measure of homophily in the social network) and number of early adopters ( innovators ). A two-level full factorial experiment was used to investigate the sensitivity of the model to these parameters. The primary (main), secondary and tertiary effects of each parameter were estimated to assess the model\u27s sensitivity. The results show that the model is more responsive to close neighbour ratio and number of early adopters than average degree. Consequently, uncertainty surrounding the inferences drawn from simulation experiments using the agent-based model will be minimized by obtaining more reliable estimates of close neighbour ratio and number of early adopters. While it is possible to reliably estimate the level of early adopters from the literature, the degree of homophily (close neighbour ratio) has to be estimated from surveys that can be expensive and unreliable. Further, work is required to find economic ways to document relevant degrees of homophily in social networks in mining communities

ZRANB3 is an African-specific type 2 diabetes locus associated with beta-cell mass and insulin response

Abstract: Genome analysis of diverse human populations has contributed to the identification of novel genomic loci for diseases of major clinical and public health impact. Here, we report a genome-wide analysis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in sub-Saharan Africans, an understudied ancestral group. We analyze ~18 million autosomal SNPs in 5,231 individuals from Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya. We identify a previously-unreported genome-wide significant locus: ZRANB3 (Zinc Finger RANBP2-Type Containing 3, lead SNP p = 2.831 × 10−9). Knockdown or genomic knockout of the zebrafish ortholog results in reduction in pancreatic β-cell number which we demonstrate to be due to increased apoptosis in islets. siRNA transfection of murine Zranb3 in MIN6 β-cells results in impaired insulin secretion in response to high glucose, implicating Zranb3 in β-cell functional response to high glucose conditions. We also show transferability in our study of 32 established T2D loci. Our findings advance understanding of the genetics of T2D in non-European ancestry populations

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Modeling the Effect of Information Diffusion on Community Acceptance of Mining

Mine managers find it challenging to predict changes in the level of acceptance of their mining projects due to changes in associated social, environmental and technological factors. To address this challenge, this study presents a: (i) framework for modeling the effect of information diffusion on community acceptance of mining using agent-based modeling (ABM); and (ii) case study to illustrate the framework. The model, built in Matlab, defines individuals in the community as independent agents that interact with other agents for information. The agents\u27 utility function is derived from discrete choice models. Drawing on data from the literature, a case study was used to illustrate the framework. The results indicate that changes in agents\u27 perception of air pollution have a significant effect on acceptance of mining while demographic factors do not. The proposed framework could be applied in other sectors besides mining and provides stakeholders a tool to integrate sustainability into design and management choices

Molecular Characterization of Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase: Do Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms Affect Hematological Parameters in HIV-Positive Patients?

This descriptive, cross-sectional study aimed at evaluating the prevalence of G6PD deficiency and the 376A ⟶ G, 202G ⟶ A single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) among HIV patients attending care at a teaching hospital in Ghana and determine how the SNPs affect haematological profile in HIV. A total of 200 HIV-positive Ghanaians were recruited. Venous blood samples were obtained and complete blood count, and G6PD screening and genotyping for the 376A ⟶ G, 202G ⟶ A SNPs were performed. Out of the 200 participants, 13.0% (26/200) were G6PD-deficient based on the methemoglobin reductase technique, with 1.5% (3/200) and 11.5% (23/200) presenting with partial and full enzyme defect, respectively. Among the 13.0% participants with G6PD deficiency, 19.2% (5/26), 30.8% (8/26), and 19.2% (5/26) presented with 376A ⟶ G only (enzyme activity (EA): 1.19 U/g Hb), 202G ⟶A only (EA: 1.41 U/g Hb), and G202/A376 SNPs (EA: 1.14 U/g Hb), respectively. Having the 376A ⟶ G mutation was associated not only with lower red blood cell (RBC) count (3.38 × 106/µL (3.16–3.46) vs 3.95 × 106/µL (3.53–4.41), p = 0.010) but also with higher mean cell volume (MCV) (102.90 (99.40–113.0) vs 91.10 fL (84.65–98.98), p = 0.041) and mean cell haemoglobin (MCH) (33.70 pg (32.70–38.50) vs 30.75 pg (28.50–33.35), p = 0.038), whereas possessing the 202G ⟶ A mutation was associated with higher MCV only (98.90 fL (90.95–102.35) vs 91.10 fL (84.65–98.98), p = 0.041) compared to G6PD nondeficient participants. The prevalence of G6PD deficiency among HIV patients in Kumasi, Ghana, is 13.0% prevalence, comprising 1.5% and 11.5% partial and full enzyme defect, respectively, based on the methemoglobin reductase technique among HIV patients in Ghana. Among G6PD-deficient HIV patients, the prevalence of G202/A376 SNPs is 19.2%. The 376A ⟶ G mutation is associated not only with lower RBC count but also with higher MCV and MCH, whereas the 202G ⟶ A mutation is associated with higher MCV compared to the normal G6PD population

ZRANB3 is an African-specific type 2 diabetes locus associated with beta-cell mass and insulin response

Genome analysis of diverse human populations has contributed to the identification of novel genomic loci for diseases of major clinical and public health impact. Here, we report a genome-wide analysis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in sub-Saharan Africans, an understudied ancestral group. We analyze ~18 million autosomal SNPs in 5,231 individuals from Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya. We identify a previously-unreported genome-wide significant locus: ZRANB3 (Zinc Finger RANBP2-Type Containing 3, lead SNP p = 2.831 × 10−9). Knockdown or genomic knockout of the zebrafish ortholog results in reduction in pancreatic β-cell number which we demonstrate to be due to increased apoptosis in islets. siRNA transfection of murine Zranb3 in MIN6 β-cells results in impaired insulin secretion in response to high glucose, implicating Zranb3 in β-cell functional response to high glucose conditions. We also show transferability in our study of 32 established T2D loci. Our findings advance understanding of the genetics of T2D in non-European ancestry populations

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in children : an international, multicentre, prospective cohort study

Introduction Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). However, there is a lack of data available about SSI in children worldwide, especially from low-income and middle-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of SSI in children and associations between SSI and morbidity across human development settings. Methods A multicentre, international, prospective, validated cohort study of children aged under 16 years undergoing clean-contaminated, contaminated or dirty gastrointestinal surgery. Any hospital in the world providing paediatric surgery was eligible to contribute data between January and July 2016. The primary outcome was the incidence of SSI by 30 days. Relationships between explanatory variables and SSI were examined using multilevel logistic regression. Countries were stratified into high development, middle development and low development groups using the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Results Of 1159 children across 181 hospitals in 51 countries, 523 (45 center dot 1%) children were from high HDI, 397 (34 center dot 2%) from middle HDI and 239 (20 center dot 6%) from low HDI countries. The 30-day SSI rate was 6.3% (33/523) in high HDI, 12 center dot 8% (51/397) in middle HDI and 24 center dot 7% (59/239) in low HDI countries. SSI was associated with higher incidence of 30-day mortality, intervention, organ-space infection and other HAIs, with the highest rates seen in low HDI countries. Median length of stay in patients who had an SSI was longer (7.0 days), compared with 3.0 days in patients who did not have an SSI. Use of laparoscopy was associated with significantly lower SSI rates, even after accounting for HDI. Conclusion The odds of SSI in children is nearly four times greater in low HDI compared with high HDI countries. Policies to reduce SSI should be prioritised as part of the wider global agenda.Peer reviewe