Controlling distant contacts to reduce disease spreading on disordered complex networks

In real social networks, person-to-person interactions are known to be heterogeneous, which can affect the way a disease spreads through a population, reaches a tipping point in the fraction of infected individuals, and becomes an epidemic. This property, called disorder, is usually associated with contact times between individuals and can be modeled by a weighted network, where the weights are related to normalized contact times ω. In this paper, we study the SIR model for disease spreading when both close and distant types of interactions are present. We develop a mitigation strategy that reduces only the time duration of distant contacts, which are easier to alter in practice. Using branching theory, supported by simulations, we found that the effectiveness of the strategy increases when the density f1 of close contacts decreases. Moreover, we found a threshold f̃1=Tc∕β below which the strategy can bring the system from an epidemic to a non-epidemic phase, even when close contacts have the longest time durations.Fil: Pérez, Ignacio Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; ArgentinaFil: Trunfio, Paul A.. Boston University; Estados UnidosFil: la Rocca, Cristian Ernesto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; Argentina. Boston University; Estados UnidosFil: Braunstein, Lidia Adriana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; Argentina. Boston University; Estados Unido

An epidemic model for COVID-19 transmission in Argentina: Exploration of the alternating quarantine and massive testing strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged authorities at different levels of government administration aroundthe globe. When faced with diseases of this severity, it is useful for the authorities to have prediction tools to estimate in advance the impact on the health system as well as the human, material, and economic resources that will be necessary. In this paper, we construct an extended Susceptible?Exposed?Infected?Recovered modelthat incorporates the social structure of Mar del Plata, the 4◦ most inhabited city in Argentina and head ofthe Municipality of General Pueyrredón. Moreover, we consider detailed partitions of infected individualsaccording to the illness severity, as well as data of local health resources, to bring predictions closer to thelocal reality. Tuning the corresponding epidemic parameters for COVID-19, we study an alternating quarantinestrategy: a part of the population can circulate without restrictions at any time, while the rest is equally dividedinto two groups and goes on successive periods of normal activity and lockdown, each one with a durationof days. We also implement a random testing strategy with a threshold over the population. We found that = 7 is a good choice for the quarantine strategy since it reduces the infected population and, conveniently,it suits a weekly schedule. Focusing on the health system, projecting from the situation as of September 30,we foresee a difficulty to avoid saturation of the available ICU, given the extremely low levels of mobility thatwould be required. In the worst case, our model estimates that four thousand deaths would occur, of which30% could be avoided with proper medical attention. Nonetheless, we found that aggressive testing wouldallow an increase in the percentage of people that can circulate without restrictions, and the medical facilitiesto deal with the additional critical patients would be relatively low.Fil: Vassallo, Lautaro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; ArgentinaFil: Pérez, Ignacio Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; ArgentinaFil: Alvarez Zuzek, Lucila G.. University Of Georgetown; Estados UnidosFil: Amaya, Julián. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; ArgentinaFil: Torres, Marcos F.. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; ArgentinaFil: Valdez, Lucas Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; ArgentinaFil: la Rocca, Cristian Ernesto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; ArgentinaFil: Braunstein, Lidia Adriana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; Argentin

Azimuthal anisotropy of charged jet production in root s(NN)=2.76 TeV Pb-Pb collisions

We present measurements of the azimuthal dependence of charged jet production in central and semi-central root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV Pb-Pb collisions with respect to the second harmonic event plane, quantified as nu(ch)(2) (jet). Jet finding is performed employing the anti-k(T) algorithm with a resolution parameter R = 0.2 using charged tracks from the ALICE tracking system. The contribution of the azimuthal anisotropy of the underlying event is taken into account event-by-event. The remaining (statistical) region-to-region fluctuations are removed on an ensemble basis by unfolding the jet spectra for different event plane orientations independently. Significant non-zero nu(ch)(2) (jet) is observed in semi-central collisions (30-50% centrality) for 20 <p(T)(ch) (jet) <90 GeV/c. The azimuthal dependence of the charged jet production is similar to the dependence observed for jets comprising both charged and neutral fragments, and compatible with measurements of the nu(2) of single charged particles at high p(T). Good agreement between the data and predictions from JEWEL, an event generator simulating parton shower evolution in the presence of a dense QCD medium, is found in semi-central collisions. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Peer reviewe

Forward-central two-particle correlations in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV

Two-particle angular correlations between trigger particles in the forward pseudorapidity range (2.5 2GeV/c. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B. V.Peer reviewe

Event-shape engineering for inclusive spectra and elliptic flow in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S=2.76 TeV

Peer reviewe

Production of He-4 and (4) in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S=2.76 TeV at the LHC

Results on the production of He-4 and (4) nuclei in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S = 2.76 TeV in the rapidity range vertical bar y vertical bar <1, using the ALICE detector, are presented in this paper. The rapidity densities corresponding to 0-10% central events are found to be dN/dy4(He) = (0.8 +/- 0.4 (stat) +/- 0.3 (syst)) x 10(-6) and dN/dy4 = (1.1 +/- 0.4 (stat) +/- 0.2 (syst)) x 10(-6), respectively. This is in agreement with the statistical thermal model expectation assuming the same chemical freeze-out temperature (T-chem = 156 MeV) as for light hadrons. The measured ratio of (4)/He-4 is 1.4 +/- 0.8 (stat) +/- 0.5 (syst). (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe

Pseudorapidity and transverse-momentum distributions of charged particles in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

The pseudorapidity (eta) and transverse-momentum (p(T)) distributions of charged particles produced in proton-proton collisions are measured at the centre-of-mass energy root s = 13 TeV. The pseudorapidity distribution in vertical bar eta vertical bar <1.8 is reported for inelastic events and for events with at least one charged particle in vertical bar eta vertical bar <1. The pseudorapidity density of charged particles produced in the pseudorapidity region vertical bar eta vertical bar <0.5 is 5.31 +/- 0.18 and 6.46 +/- 0.19 for the two event classes, respectively. The transverse-momentum distribution of charged particles is measured in the range 0.15 <p(T) <20 GeV/c and vertical bar eta vertical bar <0.8 for events with at least one charged particle in vertical bar eta vertical bar <1. The evolution of the transverse momentum spectra of charged particles is also investigated as a function of event multiplicity. The results are compared with calculations from PYTHIA and EPOS Monte Carlo generators. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Peer reviewe

Elliptic flow of muons from heavy-flavour hadron decays at forward rapidity in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76TeV

The elliptic flow, v(2), of muons from heavy-flavour hadron decays at forward rapidity (2.5 <y <4) is measured in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)= 2.76TeVwith the ALICE detector at the LHC. The scalar product, two- and four-particle Q cumulants and Lee-Yang zeros methods are used. The dependence of the v(2) of muons from heavy-flavour hadron decays on the collision centrality, in the range 0-40%, and on transverse momentum, p(T), is studied in the interval 3 <p(T)<10 GeV/c. A positive v(2) is observed with the scalar product and two-particle Q cumulants in semi-central collisions (10-20% and 20-40% centrality classes) for the p(T) interval from 3 to about 5GeV/c with a significance larger than 3 sigma, based on the combination of statistical and systematic uncertainties. The v(2) magnitude tends to decrease towards more central collisions and with increasing pT. It becomes compatible with zero in the interval 6 <p(T)<10 GeV/c. The results are compared to models describing the interaction of heavy quarks and open heavy-flavour hadrons with the high-density medium formed in high-energy heavy-ion collisions. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe

Centrality evolution of the charged-particle pseudorapidity density over a broad pseudorapidity range in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76TeV

Peer reviewe