56 research outputs found
Vital signs prediction and early warning score calculation based on continuous monitoring of hospitalised patients using wearable technology
- Author
- Publication venue
- 'MDPI AG'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2020
- Field of study
In this prospective, interventional, international study, we investigate continuous monitoring of hospitalised patients’ vital signs using wearable technology as a basis for real-time early warning scores (EWS) estimation and vital signs time-series prediction. The collected continuous monitored vital signs are heart rate, blood pressure, respiration rate, and oxygen saturation of a heterogeneous patient population hospitalised in cardiology, postsurgical, and dialysis wards. Two aspects are elaborated in this study. The first is the high-rate (every minute) estimation of the statistical values (e.g., minimum and mean) of the vital signs components of the EWS for one-minute segments in contrast with the conventional routine of 2 to 3 times per day. The second aspect explores the use of a hybrid machine learning algorithm of kNN-LS-SVM for predicting future values of monitored vital signs. It is demonstrated that a real-time implementation of EWS in clinical practice is possible. Furthermore, we showed a promising prediction performance of vital signs compared to the most recent state of the art of a boosted approach of LSTM. The reported mean absolute percentage errors of predicting one-hour averaged heart rate are 4.1, 4.5, and 5% for the upcoming one, two, and three hours respectively for cardiology patients. The obtained results in this study show the potential of using wearable technology to continuously monitor the vital signs of hospitalised patients as the real-time estimation of EWS in addition to a reliable prediction of the future values of these vital signs is presented. Ultimately, both approaches of high-rate EWS computation and vital signs time-series prediction is promising to provide efficient cost-utility, ease of mobility and portability, streaming analytics, and early warning for vital signs deterioration
Burnout among surgeons before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an international survey
- Author
- Abbas Ahmed Hosam Eldin Hasan
- Abbas Ghanem
- Abbas Hazem
- Abbatini Francesca
- Abdalbakheet Duaa
- Abdallah Emad
- Abdelazim Tarek
- Abdelaziz Nabil Yassin Tammam
- Abdelglil Momen
- Abdelhalim Ahmed
- Abdelhalim Mostafa Mohammed
- Abdelhamid Ahmed
- Abdelhamid Mohamed Sayed
- Abdelkhalik Morsi Mohamed Morsi
- Abdellatif Ahmed
- Abdelmageed Mohammed Elkassaby
- Abdelmaksoud Mohamed
- Abdelmohsen Ahmed
- Abdelmomen Ahmed Ezzat Elghrieb
- Abdelmoneim Ibrahim Tharwat Mohamed
- Abdelmonem Mohamed Ahmed
- Abdelmotaleb Hussien Ali
- Abdelrafee Ahmed
- Abdelrasheed Sayed
- Abdelsayed Emad Fahim
- Abdo Nael
- Abdulatef Shehab Ahmed Ali
- Abdullah Alqahtani Ali
- Abdulrahman Chadi
- Abdur-Rahman Lukman
- Abduraboh Abdullah Fayez
- Abed Ali Ibrahim Eldawy
- Abiodun Azeez Lateef
- Abiyere Henry
- Aboelmagid Hamdy Haggag Ebrahim
- Abolnasr Khaled Samir
- Abosi-Appeadu Kessewa
- Abouelnagah Galal
- Abozeid Ahmad Mahmoud
- Abozeid Mahmoud
- Abualkhair Wael
- Abualnaja Yousra
- Abualsel Abdulmenem
- Abuosba Abdelrahman
- Abusalem Osama
- Abusiam Wael
- Abutalib Raid Abdullah
- Abuzeid Mohamed Mostafa
- Addari Giulio
- Adebowale Yusuf
- Adejumo Adeyinka
- Adel Mohammed
- Adeoluwa Ojajuni
- Adeyeye Ademola
- Adly Ramy Magdy
- Adorisio Ottavio
- Agbonrofo Peter
- Agrawal Abhishek
- Ahmad Farooq
- Ahmad Misbahu Haruna
- Ahmad Mustafa
- Ahmad Sufian
- Ahmad Suhaib
- Ahmed Abeer Abdul Hameed
- Ahmed Arooj
- Ahmed Emad Ali
- Ahmed Hassan
- Ahmed Mohamed
- Ahmed Mostafa Mahmoud
- Aitali Abdelmounaim
- Akeel Nouf
- Akhtar Khalid
- Akin Furkan Atakan
- Akinmade Akinola
- Al Eisa Abdulmohsen
- Al Hassn Ibrahim
- Al Naeb Mohamed
- Al Turki Neamat Ahmed Ali
- Al-Bahrani Ahmed
- Al-Kubati Waheeb
- Al-Masari Hayder Makki
- Al-Sadery Humood
- Alaa Mohammed
- Alabbas Haytham
- Alafghani Haitham
- Alarabi Rayan
- Alawadhi Abdulbari Mohammed
- Alawady Mohammed
- Alawfi Homoud
- Alazzam Saleh
- Albadry Ali Almahdy Ali
- Albahooth Khalid
- Albalawi Ibrahim Altedlawi
- Albeshri Khalid A.
- Aleksandr Ogoreltsev
- Alfalah Haitham
- Algatanesh Nassib
- Alghamdi Faisal Saleh
- Alghamdi Saleh
- Alghuliga Abdullah
- Alhamdany Arkan Shubber
- Alharbi Abdulhamid
- Alhazmi Barrag
- Alhazmi Waleed
- Alhedaithy Alhanouf
- Alhendawey Moaaz
- Alhussaini Mohammed Khalid
- Alhussien Fade Ahmed
- Ali Ali Sayed
- Ali Bandar Idrees A.
- Ali Doaa
- Ali Mahmoud
- Ali Mohamed Anwar Abdel Razik
- Ali Muhammad Zulfiqar
- Ali Shabeer
- Ali Syed Muhammad
- Aliyu Yakubu
- Aljathlany Yousef
- Aljawhari Adel Ali
- Alkhalegy Ayman
- Alkhayat Ali
- Alkhayat Mohammed Amer
- Allaeys Mathias
- Almaghrabi Alhassan Hesham
- Almasri Mahmoud
- Almulhim Abdulrhman
- Alnabarawi Mahmoud
- Alnahas Yousef
- Alnashar Ahmed
- Alnoqaidan Emad
- Alomieri Adil
- Alotaibi Abdullah
- Alotaibi Abdulrahman
- Alotaibi Abdulrahman
- Alowairdhi Tumadher
- Alqarni Ahmed
- Alqasaby Abdallah
- Alqudaihi Heba
- Alrashidi Yousef
- Alsallum Ofays
- Alsawat Salem
- Alshabi Yaser Ahmad
- Alshehari Mohammed Mohammed Hasan
- Alshukr Sarah
- Alsuwaimel Munir A.
- Althobaiti Majid
- Althumali Abdullah
- Altomare Donato F.
- Alvarez Gallesio José Maria
- Alwan Ahmed
- Alwusaibie Ahmed
- Alyami Mohammad
- Alzahrani Khalid H.
- Alzahrani Saud
- Alzamanan Mahdi
- Alzamel Heythem
- Amal Benzakour
- Amary Mohamed Mokhtar
- Amen Mohamed Mohsen
- Amer Nasser Mohammed
- Amir Mohammed
- Amr Wesam
- Andrea Chierici
- Andrea Police
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- Angrisani Marco
- Angulo Victor Manuel Pinto
- Antonio D’Alessandro
- Anwer Mariyah
- Aoun Rany
- Arbutina Dragana
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- Aremu Isiaka
- Argenio Giulio
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- Arnouse Mohamed Mohamed Hamdy
- Asar Khalid Mohammad Ibrahim
- Ashimov Erkin
- Ashraf Tamer
- Asif Muhammad
- Aslam Mohammad
- Ateeb Mujammad
- Atef Gehad
- Atici Semra Demirli
- Attia Ahmed Mohamed
- Ayoub Larissa
- Azer Mina
- Aziz Mina
- Aziz Muhammad Akram Abdul
- Ba Mamadou
- Bacher Annica
- Bafaraj Ahmed
- Bagaglini Giulia
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- Bashah Moataz M.
- Bashir Umar
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- Echevarria Miguel Jose Pinto
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- Efetov Sergey
- Eke Grace
- El-Hussuna Alaa
- El-Wakeel Ayman
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- Elbahrawy Aly
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- Eldeeb Ahmed
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- Eleshra Ahmed
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- Elhattab Ahmad
- Elhawary Ahmed Adel
- Elkafoury Ahmed
- Elkased Ahmed Farag
- Elkatt Mahmoud Mohamed
- Elkhouly Ahmed G.
- Elmesery Mohamed
- Elmetwally Ashraf S.
- Elmoghazy Mohamed Ibrahim
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- Elnakash Ahmed Mostafa
- Elnemr Islam
- Elnour Ahmed Abd Elbaset Elsayed Abu
- Elrefai Mohamad
- Elsaied Adham
- Elsanhoury Kareem
- Elsanosi Abdelrhman Azhari Mohammed
- Elsayed Mohamed Abdelmoneim
- Elsayed Mohamed Ahmed Abdelhalim Ahmed
- Elseberbihy John Rezk Hanna
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- Elshazli Mostafa
- Elsheik Ahmed
- ElSheikh Ahmed M.
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- Elvira Tartaglia
- Elzayady Hany M.
- Elzayat Ibrahim
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- Emile Sameh Hany
- Enad Farazdaq
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- Eral Burak
- Ezz Ahmed
- Fadel Bashir A.
- Fahiem Andrew
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- Fatima Tauseef
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- Fayed Mohamed Abdelaziz Mohamed Abdalla M
- Fazli Mohammad Rafi
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- Ghonim Mostafa
- Ghunaim Mohammed
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- Giardino Alessandro
- Giarratano Gabriella
- Giuffrida Maria Carmela
- Giugliano Marco
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- Gomez Caroina Gonzalez
- Gondal Zafar
- Gonzales Erick Ivan Huaman
- Gorin David
- Gots Alexander
- Grappelli Virgilio Michael Ambrosi
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- Guerci Claudio
- Guerrero José Eaazim Flores
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- Hamed Esmael Ali
- Hamed Hosam
- Hamed Mohamed Korayem Fattouh
- Hammad Muhammed Alaa Moukhtar
- Hamza Ahmed
- Hanif Muhammad Amir
- Hasani Ariola
- Hassan Mohamed Ali Gad
- Hassan Mohamed Salah Eldin
- Hassan Redan
- Hatm Mohamed
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- Helal Mohamed Alaa Abdelmoez
- Helmy Ahmed Hazem I.
- Hemidan Ahmed Gamal Abouelfetouh Ibrahim
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- Hijazi Bilal Ahmed
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- Hussain Marwah
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- Jameel Muhammad Khurram
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- Jasso Manuel Meza
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- Mohammad Mohammad Aminu
- Mohammed Khalid Fathelrahman Bakier
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- Mohammed Mahmoud M.
- Mohammed Mohammed Mustafa Hassan
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- Warusavitarne Janindra
- Waseem Talat
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- Yakar Fatih
- Yanaga Katsuhiko
- Yassin Nouf
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- Zidan Ahmed Azmy
- Zigiotto Daniele
- Zubayraeva Albina
- Zuhdy Mohammad
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2024
- Field of study
Background: SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had many significant impacts within the surgical realm, and surgeons have been obligated to reconsider almost every aspect of daily clinical practice. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study reported in compliance with the CHERRIES guidelines and conducted through an online platform from June 14th to July 15th, 2020. The primary outcome was the burden of burnout during the pandemic indicated by the validated Shirom-Melamed Burnout Measure. Results: Nine hundred fifty-four surgeons completed the survey. The median length of practice was 10 years; 78.2% included were male with a median age of 37 years old, 39.5% were consultants, 68.9% were general surgeons, and 55.7% were affiliated with an academic institution. Overall, there was a significant increase in the mean burnout score during the pandemic; longer years of practice and older age were significantly associated with less burnout. There were significant reductions in the median number of outpatient visits, operated cases, on-call hours, emergency visits, and research work, so, 48.2% of respondents felt that the training resources were insufficient. The majority (81.3%) of respondents reported that their hospitals were included in the management of COVID-19, 66.5% felt their roles had been minimized; 41% were asked to assist in non-surgical medical practices, and 37.6% of respondents were included in COVID-19 management. Conclusions: There was a significant burnout among trainees. Almost all aspects of clinical and research activities were affected with a significant reduction in the volume of research, outpatient clinic visits, surgical procedures, on-call hours, and emergency cases hindering the training. Trial registration: The study was registered on clicaltrials.gov "NCT04433286" on 16/06/2020
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Aali Amirali
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Jaffar
- Abbasgholizadeh Rouzbeh
- Abbasi Madineh Akram
- Abbasian Mohammadreza
- Abd ElHafeez Samar
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdelmasseh Michael
- Abdelwahab Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdoun Meriem
- Abdullahi Auwal
- Abdurehman Ame Mehadi
- Abebe Mesfin
- Abedi Aidin
- Abedi Armita
- Abegaz Tadesse M
- Abeldaño Zuñiga Roberto Ariel
- Abhilash E S
- Abiodun Olugbenga Olusola
- Aboagye Richard Gyan
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abouzid Mohamed
- Abreu Lucas Guimarães
- Abrha Woldu Aberhe
- Abrigo Michael R M
- Abtahi Dariush
- Abu Rumeileh Samir
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen ME
- Abu-Zaid Ahmed
- Aburuz Salahdein
- Acuna Juan Manuel
- Adair Tim
- Addo Isaac Yeboah
- Adebayo Oladimeji M
- Adegboye Oyelola A
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Aden Bashir
- Adepoju Abiola Victor
- Adetunji Charles Oluwaseun
- Adeyeoluwa Temitayo Esther
- Adeyomoye Olorunsola Israel
- Adha Rishan
- Adibi Amin
- Adikusuma Wirawan
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Adra Saryia
- Afework Abel
- Afolabi Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika
- Afraz Ali
- Afyouni Shadi
- Afzal Saira
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Aghamiri Shahin
- Agodi Antonella
- Agyemang-Duah Williams
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahmad Aqeel
- Ahmad Danish
- Ahmad Firdos
- Ahmad Muayyad M
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmadi Keivan
- Ahmadzade Amir Mahmoud
- Ahmadzade Mohadese
- Ahmed Ayman
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Luai A
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Syed Anees
- Ajami Marjan
- Aji Budi
- Ajumobi Olufemi
- Akalu Gizachew Taddesse
- Akara Essona Matatom
- Akinosoglou Karolina
- Akkala Sreelatha
- Akyirem Samuel
- Al Hamad Hanadi
- Al Hasan Syed Mahfuz
- Al Homsi Ammar
- Al Qadire Mohammad
- AL-Ahdal Tareq Mohammed Ali
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-amer Rasmieh Mustafa
- Al-Eyadhy Ayman
- Al-Gheethi Adel Ali Saeed
- Al-Hanawi Mohammed Khaled
- Al-Jumaily Adel
- Al-Marwani Sabah
- Al-Maweri Sadeq Ali Ali
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M
- Al-Sabah Salman Khalifah
- Al-Tawfiq Jaffar A
- Al-Worafi Yaser Mohammed
- Ala Moein
- Aladelusi Timothy Olukunle
- Alalalmeh Samer O
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Manjurul
- Alam Zufishan
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M
- Albashtawy Mohammed
- AlBataineh Mohammad T
- Aldridge Robert W
- Alemi Sharifullah
- Alhabib Khalid F
- Alhalaiqa Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji
- Ali Abid
- Ali Akhtar
- Ali Beriwan Abdulqadir
- Ali Hassam
- Ali Mohammed Usman
- Ali Rafat
- Ali Syed Shujait Shujait
- Ali Zahid
- Alian Samakkhah Shohreh
- Alicandro Gianfranco
- Alif Sheikh Mohammad
- Aligol Mohammad
- Alimi Rasoul
- Aliyi Ahmednur Adem
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Almahmeed Wael
- Almazan Joseph Uy
- Almidani Omar
- Alomari Mahmoud A
- Alonso Nivaldo
- Alqahtani Jaber S
- Alqutaibi Ahmed Yaseen
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- Amare Azmeraw T
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- Amugsi Dickson A
- Amzat Jimoh
- Ancuceanu Robert
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- Anjum Afifa
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- Athari Seyyed Shamsadin
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- Attia Sameh
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- Charan Jaykaran
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- Chowdhury Rajiv
- Chu Dinh-Toi
- Chukwu Isaac Sunday
- Chung Eric
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- Cini Karly I
- Clark Cain C T
- Coberly Kaleb
- Columbus Alyssa
- Comfort Haley
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- Cullen Patricia
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- Damiani Giovanni
- Daneshvar Sara
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- De Leo Diego
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- Degenhardt Louisa
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- Delgado-Ortiz Laura
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- dos Santos Wendel Mombaque
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- Khadembashiri Mohamad Mehdi
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- Khafaie Morteza Abdullatif
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- Khalafi Mohammad
- Khalaji Amirmohammad
- Khalid Nauman
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- Werdecker Andrea
- Westerman Ronny
- Wickramasinghe Dakshitha Praneeth
- Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana
- Wijeratne Tissa
- Wilson Shadrach
- Wojewodzic Marcin W
- Wool Eve E
- Woolf Anthony D
- Wu Dongze
- Wulandari Ratna Dwi
- Xiao Hong
- Xu Bin
- Xu Xiaoyue
- Yadav Lalit
- Yaghoubi Sajad
- Yang Lin
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yao Yao
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yesera Gesila Endashaw
- Yesodharan Renjulal
- Yesuf Subah Abderehim
- Yiğit Arzu
- Yiğit Vahit
- Yip Paul
- Yon Dong Keon
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- You Yuyi
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zadey Siddhesh
- Zadnik Vesna
- Zafari Nima
- Zahedi Mohammad
- Zahid Muhammad Nauman
- Zahir Mazyar
- Zakham Fathiah
- Zaki Nazar
- Zakzuk Josefina
- Zamagni Giulia
- Zaman Burhan Abdullah
- Zaman Sojib Bin
- Zamora Nelson
- Zand Ramin
- Zandi Milad
- Zandieh Ghazal G Z
- Zanghì Aurora
- Zare Iman
- Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich
- Zeariya Mohammed G M
- Zeng Youjie
- Zhai Chunxia
- Zhang Chen
- Zhang Haijun
- Zhang Hongwei
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhaofeng
- Zhang Zhenyu
- Zhao Hanqing
- Zhao Yang
- Zhao Yong
- Zheng Peng
- Zhong Chenwen
- Zhou Juexiao
- Zhu Bin
- Zhu Zhaohua
- Ziaeefar Pardis
- Zielińska Magdalena
- Zou Zhiyong
- Zumla Alimuddin
- Zweck Elric
- Zyoud Samer H
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2024
- Field of study
Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Aali Amirali
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Jaffar
- Abbasgholizadeh Rouzbeh
- Abbasi Madineh Akram
- Abbasian Mohammadreza
- Abd ElHafeez Samar
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdelmasseh Michael
- Abdelwahab Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdoun Meriem
- Abdullahi Auwal
- Abdurehman Ame Mehadi
- Abebe Mesfin
- Abedi Aidin
- Abedi Armita
- Abegaz Tadesse M
- Abeldaño Zuñiga Roberto Ariel
- Abhilash ES
- Abiodun Olugbenga Olusola
- Aboagye Richard Gyan
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abouzid Mohamed
- Abreu Lucas Guimarães
- Abrha Woldu Aberhe
- Abrigo Michael RM
- Abtahi Dariush
- Abu Rumeileh Samir
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen ME
- Abu-Zaid Ahmed
- Aburuz Salahdein
- Acuna Juan Manuel
- Adair Tim
- Addo Isaac Yeboah
- Adebayo Oladimeji M
- Adegboye Oyelola A
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Aden Bashir
- Adepoju Abiola Victor
- Adetunji Charles Oluwaseun
- Adeyeoluwa Temitayo Esther
- Adeyomoye Olorunsola Israel
- Adha Rishan
- Adibi Amin
- Adikusuma Wirawan
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Adra Saryia
- Afework Abel
- Afolabi Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika
- Afraz Ali
- Afyouni Shadi
- Afzal Saira
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Aghamiri Shahin
- Agodi Antonella
- Agyemang-Duah Williams
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahmad Aqeel
- Ahmad Danish
- Ahmad Firdos
- Ahmad Muayyad M
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmadi Keivan
- Ahmadzade Amir Mahmoud
- Ahmadzade Mohadese
- Ahmed Ayman
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Luai A
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Syed Anees
- Ajami Marjan
- Aji Budi
- Ajumobi Olufemi
- Akalu Gizachew Taddesse
- Akara Essona Matatom
- Akinosoglou Karolina
- Akkala Sreelatha
- Akyirem Samuel
- Al Hamad Hanadi
- Al Hasan Syed Mahfuz
- Al Homsi Ammar
- Al Qadire Mohammad
- AL-Ahdal Tareq Mohammed Ali
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-amer Rasmieh Mustafa
- Al-Eyadhy Ayman
- Al-Gheethi Adel Ali Saeed
- Al-Hanawi Mohammed Khaled
- Al-Jumaily Adel
- Al-Marwani Sabah
- Al-Maweri Sadeq Ali Ali
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M
- Al-Sabah Salman Khalifah
- Al-Tawfiq Jaffar A
- Al-Worafi Yaser Mohammed
- Ala Moein
- Aladelusi Timothy Olukunle
- Alalalmeh Samer O
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Manjurul
- Alam Zufishan
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M
- Albashtawy Mohammed
- AlBataineh Mohammad T
- Aldridge Robert W
- Alemi Sharifullah
- Alhabib Khalid F
- Alhalaiqa Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji
- Ali Abid
- Ali Akhtar
- Ali Beriwan Abdulqadir
- Ali Hassam
- Ali Mohammed Usman
- Ali Rafat
- Ali Syed Shujait Shujait
- Ali Zahid
- Alian Samakkhah Shohreh
- Alicandro Gianfranco
- Alif Sheikh Mohammad
- Aligol Mohammad
- Alimi Rasoul
- Aliyi Ahmednur Adem
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Almahmeed Wael
- Almazan Joseph Uy
- Almidani Omar
- Alomari Mahmoud A
- Alonso Nivaldo
- Alqahtani Jaber S
- Alqutaibi Ahmed Yaseen
- Altaf Awais
- Altirkawi Khalid A
- Alvi Farrukh Jawad
- Alwafi Hassan
- Aly Hany
- Alzoubi Karem H
- Amare Azmeraw T
- Ameyaw Edward Kwabena
- Amhare Abebe Feyissa
- Amin Tarek Tawfik
- Amindarolzarbi Alireza
- Aminian Dehkordi Javad
- Amiri Sohrab
- Amu Hubert
- Amugsi Dickson A
- Amzat Jimoh
- Ancuceanu Robert
- Anderlini Deanna
- Andrade Pedro Prata
- Andrei Catalina Liliana
- Andrei Tudorel
- Angappan Dhanalakshmi
- Anil Abhishek
- Anjum Afifa
- Antony Catherine M
- Antriyandarti Ernoiz
- Anuoluwa Iyadunni Adesola
- Anwar Sumadi Lukman
- Anyasodor Anayochukwu Edward
- Appiah Seth Christopher Yaw
- Aqeel Muhammad
- Arab-Zozani Morteza
- Arabloo Jalal
- Arabzadeh Bahri Razman
- Arafat Mosab
- Aravkin Aleksandr Y
- Araújo Ana Margarida
- Aremu Abdulfatai
- Ariffin Hany
- Aripov Timur
- Armocida Benedetta
- Arooj Mahwish
- Artamonov Anton A
- Artanti Kurnia Dwi
- Arulappan Judie
- Aruleba Idowu Thomas
- Aruleba Raphael Taiwo
- Arumugam Ashokan
- Asaad Malke
- Asgary Saeed
- Ashemo Mubarek Yesse
- Ashraf Muhammad
- Asika Marvellous O
- Athari Seyyed Shamsadin
- Atout Maha Moh'd Wahbi
- Atreya Alok
- Attia Sameh
- Aujayeb Avinash
- Avan Abolfazl
- Awotidebe Adedapo Wasiu
- Ayala Quintanilla Beatriz Paulina
- Ayanore Martin Amogre
- Ayele Getnet Melaku
- Ayuso-Mateos Jose L
- Ayyoubzadeh Seyed Mohammad
- Azadnajafabad Sina
- Azhar Gulrez Shah
- Aziz Shahkaar
- Azzam Ahmed Y
- Babashahi Mina
- Babu Abraham Samuel
- Badar Muhammad
- Badawi Alaa
- Badiye Ashish D
- Baghdadi Soroush
- Bagheri Nasser
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- Bahadorikhalili Saeed
- Bai Jianjun
- Bai Ruhai
- Baker Jennifer L
- Bakkannavar Shankar M
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- Balakrishnan Senthilkumar
- Balogun Saliu A
- Baltatu Ovidiu Constantin
- Bam Kiran
- Banach Maciej
- Bandyopadhyay Soham
- Banik Biswajit
- Banik Palash Chandra
- Bansal Hansi
- Barati Shirin
- Barchitta Martina
- Bardhan Mainak
- Barker-Collo Suzanne Lyn
- Barone-Adesi Francesco
- Barqawi Hiba Jawdat
- Barr Ronald D
- Barrero Lope H
- Basharat Zarrin
- Bashir Asma'u IJ
- Bashiru Hameed Akande
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- Basnyat Buddha
- Bassat Quique
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- Basu Saurav
- Batra Kavita
- Batra Ravi
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- Bayati Mohsen
- Bayileyegn Nebiyou Simegnew
- Beaney Thomas
- Bedi Neeraj
- Begum Tahmina
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- Bejarano Ramirez Diana Fernanda
- Belgaumi Uzma Iqbal
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- Bendak Salaheddine
- Bennett Derrick A
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- Berezvai Zombor
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- Bermudez Amiel Nazer C
- Bettencourt Paulo JG
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- Bhagat Devidas S
- Bhagavathula Akshaya Srikanth
- Bhala Neeraj
- Bhalla Ashish
- Bhandari Dinesh
- Bhardwaj Nikha
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- Bhargava Ashish
- Bhaskar Sonu
- Bhat Vivek
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- Bhutta Zulfiqar A
- Bikbov Boris
- Binmadi Nada
- Bintoro Bagas Suryo
- Biondi Antonio
- Bisignano Catherine
- Bisulli Francesca
- Biswas Atanu
- Biswas Raaj Kishore
- Bitaraf Saeid
- Bjørge Tone
- Bleyer Archie
- Boampong Mary Sefa
- Bodolica Virginia
- Bodunrin Aadam Olalekan
- Bolarinwa Obasanjo Afolabi
- Bonakdar Hashemi Milad
- Bonny Aime
- Bora Basara Berrak
- Bora Kaustubh
- Borodo Safiya Bala
- Borschmann Rohan
- Botero Carvajal Alejandro
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- Boyko Edward J
- Bragazzi Nicola Luigi
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- Castañeda-Orjuela Carlos A
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- Chakraborty Chiranjib
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- Chang Chin-Kuo
- Charalampous Periklis
- Charan Jaykaran
- Chattu Vijay Kumar
- Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou Victoria
- Chavula Malizgani Paul
- Cheema Huzaifa Ahmad
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- Chitheer Abdulaal
- Cho So Mi Jemma
- Cho William CS
- Chong Bryan
- Chopra Hitesh
- Choudhary Rahul
- Chowdhury Rajiv
- Chu Dinh-Toi
- Chukwu Isaac Sunday
- Chung Eric
- Chung Eunice
- Chung Sheng-Chia
- Cini Karly I
- Clark Cain CT
- Coberly Kaleb
- Columbus Alyssa
- Comfort Haley
- Conde Joao
- Conti Sara
- Cortesi Paolo Angelo
- Costa Vera Marisa
- Cousin Ewerton
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- Cullen Patricia
- Cunningham Matthew
- Cámera Luis Alberto
- Cárdenas Rosario
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- Dadana Sriharsha
- Dadras Omid
- Dai Zhaoli
- Dalal Koustuv
- Dalli Lachlan L
- Damiani Giovanni
- Daneshvar Sara
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- De Leo Diego
- Debele Aklilu Tamire
- Degenhardt Louisa
- Dehbandi Reza
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- Delgado-Enciso Ivan
- Delgado-Ortiz Laura
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- Deuba Keshab
- Devanbu Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan
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- Dhama Kuldeep
- Dhimal Mandira Lamichhane
- Dhimal Meghnath
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- Dias da Silva Diana
- Diaz Daniel
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- Dirac M Ashworth
- Dixit Abhinav
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- do Prado Camila Bruneli
- Do Thanh Chi
- Do Thao Huynh Phuong
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- Dokova Klara Georgieva
- Dolecek Christiane
- Dorsey E Ray
- dos Santos Wendel Mombaque
- Doshi Rajkumar
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- Dutta Sulagna
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- Dziedzic Arkadiusz Marian
- Dávila-Cervantes Claudio Alberto
- Ebenezer Oluwakemi
- Eboreime Ejemai
- Ebrahimi Alireza
- Echieh Chidiebere Peter
- Ed-Dra Abdelaziz
- Edinur Hisham Atan
- Edvardsson David
- Edvardsson Kristina
- Efendi Defi
- Efendi Ferry
- Eghdami Shayan
- Eikemo Terje Andreas
- Eini Ebrahim
- Ekholuenetale Michael
- Ekpor Emmanuel
- Ekundayo Temitope Cyrus
- El Arab Rabie Adel
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- El Tantawi Maha
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- Elhadi Muhammed
- Elmeligy Omar Abdelsadek Abdou
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- Elsohaby Ibrahim
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- Emamverdi Mehdi
- Emeto Theophilus I
- Engelbert Bain Luchuo
- Erkhembayar Ryenchindorj
- Eshetie Tesfahun C
- Eskandarieh Sharareh
- Espinosa-Montero Juan
- Estep Kara
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- Eze Ugochukwu Anthony
- Fabin Natalia
- Fadaka Adewale Oluwaseun
- Fagbamigbe Adeniyi Francis
- Fahimi Saman
- Falzone Luca
- Farinha Carla Sofia E Sá
- Faris MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud
- Farjoud Kouhanjani Mohsen
- Faro Andre
- Farrokhpour Hossein
- Fatehizadeh Ali
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- Fauk Nelsensius Klau
- Fazeli Pooria
- Feigin Valery L
- Fekadu Ginenus
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- Gadanya Muktar A
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- Ganesan Balasankar
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- Ghailan Khalid Yaser
- Ghajar Alireza
- Ghanbarnia Mohammad Javad
- Ghasemi MohammadReza
- Ghasemzadeh Afsaneh
- Ghassemi Fariba
- Ghazy Ramy Mohamed
- Ghimire Sailaja
- Gholamian Asadollah
- Gholamrezanezhad Ali
- Ghorbani Vajargah Pooyan
- Ghozali Ghozali
- Ghozy Sherief
- Ghuge Arun Digambarrao
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- Gubari Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen
- Gudeta Mesay Dechasa
- Guha Avirup
- Guicciardi Stefano
- Gunawardane Damitha Asanga
- Gunturu Sasidhar
- Guo Cui
- Gupta Anish Kumar
- Gupta Bhawna
- Gupta Indarchand Ratanlal
- Gupta Rajat Das
- Gupta Sapna
- Gupta Veer Bala
- Gupta Vijai Kumar
- Gupta Vivek Kumar
- Gutiérrez Reyna Alma
- Göbölös Laszlo
- Habibzadeh Farrokh
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- Hegazi Omar E
- Heidari Golnaz
- Heidari Mohammad
- Heidari-Foroozan Mahsa
- Heidari-Soureshjani Reza
- Helfer Bartosz
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- Hesami Hamed
- Hettiarachchi Dineshani
- Heyi Demisu Zenbaba
- Hezam Kamal
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- Tavangar Seyed Mohammad
- Taveira Nuno
- Tebeje Tsion Mulat
- Tefera Yibekal Manaye
- Teimoori Mojtaba
- Temsah Mohamad-Hani
- Temsah Reem Mohamad Hani
- Teramoto Masayuki
- Tesfaye Solomon Hailemariam
- Thangaraju Pugazhenthan
- Thankappan Kavumpurathu Raman
- Thapa Rajshree
- Thapar Rekha
- Thomas Nihal
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- Thum Chern Choong Chern
- Tian Jing
- Tichopad Ales
- Ticoalu Jansje Henny Vera
- Tiruye Tenaw Yimer
- Tohidast Seyed Abolfazl
- Tonelli Marcello
- Touvier Mathilde
- Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto
- Tram Khai Hoan
- Tran Nghia Minh
- Trico Domenico
- Trihandini Indang
- Tromans Samuel Joseph
- Truong Vien T
- Truyen Thien Tan Tri Tai
- Tsermpini Evangelia Eirini
- Tumurkhuu Munkhtuya
- Tung Kang
- Tyrovolas Stefanos
- Ubah Chukwudi S
- Udoakang Aniefiok John
- Udoh Arit
- Ulhaq Inam
- Ullah Saeed
- Ullah Sana
- Umair Muhammad
- Umar Tungki Pratama
- Umeokonkwo Chukwuma David
- Umesh Anushri
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- Unnikrishnan Bhaskaran
- Upadhyay Era
- Urso Daniele
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- Vaithinathan Asokan Govindaraj
- Valadan Tahbaz Sahel
- Valizadeh Rohollah
- Van den Eynde Jef
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- Varma Siddhartha Alluri
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- Varthya Shoban Babu
- Vasankari Tommi Juhani
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- Venketasubramanian Narayanaswamy
- Venugopal Deneshkumar
- Verghese Nicholas Alexander
- Verma Madhur
- Verma Pratibha
- Veroux Massimiliano
- Verras Georgios-Ioannis
- Vervoort Dominique
- Vieira Rafael José
- Villafañe Jorge Hugo
- Villani Leonardo
- Villanueva Gabriela Ines
- Villeneuve Paul J
- Violante Francesco S
- Visontay Rachel
- Vlassov Vasily
- Vo Bay
- Vollset Stein Emil
- Volovat Simona Ruxandra
- Volovici Victor
- Vongpradith Avina
- Vos Theo
- Vujcic Isidora S
- Vukovic Rade
- Wado Yohannes Dibaba
- Wafa Hatem A
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- Wamai Richard G
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- Wang Denny
- Wang Fang
- Wang Shu
- Wang Song
- Wang Yanzhong
- Wang Yuan-Pang
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- Watson Stefanie
- Weaver Marcia R
- Weerakoon Kosala Gayan
- Weiss Daniel J
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- Wells Katherine M
- Wen Yi Feng
- Werdecker Andrea
- Westerman Ronny
- Wickramasinghe Dakshitha Praneeth
- Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana
- Wijeratne Tissa
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- Wojewodzic Marcin W
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- Wu Dongze
- Wulandari Ratna Dwi
- Xiao Hong
- Xu Bin
- Xu Xiaoyue
- Yadav Lalit
- Yaghoubi Sajad
- Yang Lin
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yao Yao
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yesera Gesila Endashaw
- Yesodharan Renjulal
- Yesuf Subah Abderehim
- Yip Paul
- Yiğit Arzu
- Yiğit Vahit
- Yon Dong Keon
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- You Yuyi
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zadey Siddhesh
- Zadnik Vesna
- Zafari Nima
- Zahedi Mohammad
- Zahid Muhammad Nauman
- Zahir Mazyar
- Zakham Fathiah
- Zaki Nazar
- Zakzuk Josefina
- Zamagni Giulia
- Zaman Burhan Abdullah
- Zaman Sojib Bin
- Zamora Nelson
- Zand Ramin
- Zandi Milad
- Zandieh Ghazal GZ
- Zanghì Aurora
- Zare Iman
- Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich
- Zeariya Mohammed GM
- Zeng Youjie
- Zhai Chunxia
- Zhang Chen
- Zhang Haijun
- Zhang Hongwei
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhaofeng
- Zhang Zhenyu
- Zhao Hanqing
- Zhao Yang
- Zhao Yong
- Zheng Peng
- Zhong Chenwen
- Zhou Juexiao
- Zhu Bin
- Zhu Zhaohua
- Ziaeefar Pardis
- Zielińska Magdalena
- Zou Zhiyong
- Zumla Alimuddin
- Zweck Elric
- Zyoud Samer H
- Šekerija Mario
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 11/03/2024
- Field of study
BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.
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- Abbas M
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- Abd El Hameed OS
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- Zardab A
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- Publication venue
- 'Springer Science and Business Media LLC'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2018
- Field of study
BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112
Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.
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- Abbas J
- Abbas N
- Abbott TEF
- Abdalla M
- Abdikadir H
- Abuhussein N
- Acquaah F
- Adamson R
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- Agnew CJF
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- Skulsky S
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- STARSurg Collaborative Writing Committee, Data analysis, Steering committee, Advisory group, Regional leads, Collaborators and validators
- STARSurg Collaborative Writing Committee, Data analysis, Steering committee, Advisory group, Regional leads, Collaborators and validators, Nepogodiev, D
- Stechman M
- Stewart D
- Stewart E
- Stewart H
- Stewart R
- Stickler E
- Stoddart MT
- Stokes E
- Stott G
- Strang S
- Stringer H
- Stringfellow TD
- Stubbing-Moore A
- Sturrock S
- Subar D
- Subratty SM
- Sukirthan N
- Sukumar S
- Sulaiman SK
- Sultan S
- Sun L
- Sundaram K
- Suresh R
- Suresh S
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- Tilliridou V
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- Torrance HD
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- Trevett J
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- Tsang JCH
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- Turner J
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- Whitcroft I
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- White P
- Whitham R
- Whyte M
- Widdison A
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- Xu Y
- Yahaya AA
- Yalamarthi S
- Yang DD
- Yang N
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- Yarham E
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- Yogeswara T
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- Zaat S
- Zanichelli D
- Zaver V
- Zeng R
- Zhang Y
- Zheleniakova T
- Zhu Y
- Zornoza A
- Zubikarai G
- Zulkifli A
- Zuzarte L
- Publication venue
- 'Wiley'
- Publication date
- 18/05/2018
- Field of study
Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability
Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study
- Author
- Liza
- - AP-HP) Bertrand Dousset (H\uf4pital Cochin
- - APHP) Anne Thomin (H\uf4pital Trousseau
- - ASST Rhodense) Carlo Corbellin (Ospedale Di Rho
- - NYU Winthrop Hospital) Amir H Sohail (NYU Langone Health
- - Xarxa Assistencial Universit\ue0ria de Manresa) Pablo Collera Ormazabal (Fundaci\uf3 Althaia
- / Columbia University Medical Center) Miriam Callahan (NewYork-Presbyterian
- 3 University Hospital) Bridget Egan (Tallaght
- 4 Lapolla Pierfrancesco
- 5 Spain: Eduardo E Rubio Susana Henriques (Hospital Garcia de Orta).
- 6 G\uf3mez Marcos
- \u2013 IRCCS Francesca Gaino (Humanitas Clinical and Research Center
- \u2013 Italy) 20089 Rozzano (MI)
- \uc1ngel Hern\ue1ndez Bartolom\ue9 Miguel
- A Aaraj Mahmoud
- A Ayeni Funbi
- A Bass Gary
- A Benson Ruth
- A Bozkurt Mehmet
- A Breen Kerry
- A Breen Kerry
- A Breen Kerry
- A Callcut Rachael
- A Chung Eric
- A Coughlin Patrick
- A de Gheldere Charles
- A De Marchi Joshua
- A Elliott Jessie
- A Fahey Brian
- A Griffiths Ewen
- A Griffiths Ewen
- A Griffiths Ewen
- A Guariglia Claudio
- A Hirji Sameer
- A Khalefa Mohamed
- A Marra (Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Agostino Gemelli) Angelo
- A Nguyen (Frankfurt University Hospital Truong
- A Olson (Duke University Medical Center) Steven
- A Raptis Dimitri
- A Rollett Rebecca
- A Saeed Samerah
- A Salama Hiba
- A Salamah Abdulrauf
- A Schnitzbauer Andreas
- A Schnitzbauer Andreas
- A Singh Aminder
- A Stevens Kent
- A Stylianides Nicholas
- A Thaha Mohamed
- A Vega (12 de Octubre University Hospital) Viviana
- A Vivas Alfredo
- A Zappa Marco
- Abate Emmanuele
- Abdalaziz (Gloucestershire Royal Hospital) Hossam
- Abdelkarim Mostafa
- Abdou Hossam
- Aboelkassem-Ibrahim Ahmad
- Abuown Ala
- Acebes-Garcia Fernando
- Acharya Metesh
- Adamina Michel
- Addae-Boateng Emmanuel
- Adolfo Pisanu (Cagliari University Hospital) Mauro Podda
- Aftab Raiyyan
- AG Moir John
- Agarwal Arnav
- AH Ibrahim Mohamed
- Aitken (Queen Elizabeth University Hospital) Emma
- Al-Azzawi Marwa
- Al-Embideen Somya
- Al-Sukaini Ahmad
- Alakaloko Felix
- Alam (Heartlands Hospital) Ruhina
- Alameer Ehab
- Alderson Derek
- Ali Mohamed Ali (Queen Elizabeth Hospital King's Lynn) Inthekab
- Aliyeva (Acibadem Mehmet Ali Aydinlar University Zumrud
- Aljanadi Firas
- Almasri Murad
- Alonso Poza (Hospital Universitario del Sureste) Alfredo
- Alonso-Ortu\uf1o Paula
- Alser Osaid
- Alser Osaid
- Alser Osaid
- Altintoprak (Sakarya University Faculty of Medicine) Fatih
- Amalina Che Bakri Nur
- Amjad Rabbia
- Anania Gabriele
- and Westminster Hospital NHS FT and Imperial College London) Chelsea
- Andabaka Tatjana
- Andrea Pisani Ceretti (ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo) Nicol\uf2 M Mariani
- Angelou Dimitrios
- Anita Volpe (New York Presbyterian Queens) Stephen Merola
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- Annessi Valerio
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- Anwar Sibtain
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- Arminio (Ospedali Riuniti Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Foggia) Armando
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- Asqalan Ahmad
- Asti (IRCCS Policlinico San Donato Emanuele
- Aubry Emmanuelle
- Aytac Erman
- Ayuso-Herrera Esther
- Azerbaijan:Elgun Samadov Joana FF Simoes (Chair). 2 Collaborators: (denotes Local Principal Investigator) Algeria: Faraj S Almaadany (\uc9tablissement Hospitalier Sp\ue9cialis\ue9 en Canc\ue9rologie - Centre Pierre-et- Marie-Curie).
- B Avellana Rocio
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- Bartholomew's Hospital) St
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- Belgium: Gabrielle H van Ramshorst Sevda Jafarova (Leyla Medical Center).
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- Ben\uedtez-Linero Inmaculada
- Benjamin Franklin) Campus
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- Cairo University) Mahmoud MA Elfiky (Kasr Alainy Faculty of Medicine
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- Center Amsterdam) Cancer
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- Croatia: Jakov Mihanovic Nicolas Duchateau (Heilig Hart Ziekenhuis Lier).
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- Cuneo)
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- Da Roit Anna
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- Dare Oliver
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- Denning Max
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- Di Candido Francesca
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- Domodossola
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- E Canova Michaela
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- e Oftalmico) Giulio Iacob (Ospedale Fatebenefratelli
- E P\ue9rez-S\ue1nchez Luis
- E Rice Henry
- E Ssentongo Anna
- e Universit\ue1rio de Coimbra) Ana C Almeida (Centro Hospitalar
- E Xyda Souzana
- Edward Fitzgerald J
- EF Abbott Tom
- EF Abbott Tom
- Egan Richard
- Egypt: Mohamed El Kassas University of Copenhagen).
- El Youzouri Hanan
- El-Ali (Queen's Hospital Abess
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- Fancellu (Cliniche San Pietro Alessandro
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- Ferrara)
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- Ford Samuel
- Forlani Stefano
- Fr\ue9d\ue9ric Bretagnol (H\uf4pital Louis-Mourier - GHU AP-HP. Nord - Universit\ue9 de Paris) David Moszkowicz
- France: Zaher Lakkis Mohamed Sherief (MISR Cancer Center/MISR International Hospital).
- Francisco de Vitoria Universidad
- Francone Elisa
- Frattaruolo Colomba
- Frio (Institute of Neurological Sciences of Bologna Federico
- Frosinone)
- G Aoun Salah
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- Green Susanna
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- Grove (Department of Colorectal Surgery Thomas
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- Gustavino (Unit of Obstetrics and Gynecology IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino Genoa) Claudio
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- Helier University Hospitals NHS Trust) St
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- Ho Beatrice
- Hogan Aisling
- Hospital of Varese University
- Hospital Universitario del Henares) Miguel Angel Garcia-Ure\uf1a (Universidad Francisco de Vitoria
- Hospital) Atakent
- Hospital) Wythenshawe
- Hossain Tanvir
- Houston Roy
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- HV Byrne Matthew
- i Pujol) Alba Zarate (Hospital Germans Trias
- I Roxo (Brigham and Women's Hospital) Vanessa
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- Iovino Domenico
- Ireland: Arnold DK Hill Paraskevi Tourountzi (Kavala General Hospital).
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- James's Hospital) Conor P Barry (St.
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- Kolias Angelos
- Kolias Angelos
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- Krishnan Emily
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- Landaluce-Olavarria Aitor
- Laura Hansen 9
- Lawani Ismail
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- Lawday Samuel
- Le Roy Bertrand
- Lecco) Asst
- Lecolle Katia
- Lederhuber Hans
- Lederhuber Hans
- Leeds)
- Leicester)
- Leventoglu Sezai
- Li Elizabeth
- Li Elizabeth
- Li Zoe
- Libya: Ghadah Z Alkadeeki Hani Al-Najjar (King Hussein Cancer Center).
- Liew Ignatius
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- Lisi Giorgio
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- Lo Terence
- Lombardia) Regione
- Lomiento Daniele
- Longhi Marco
- Lopez Antonanzas (Hospital Clinico San Carlos Leyre
- Losada Ruiz Manuel
- Lostis Emilie
- Lostoridis Eftychios
- Loubani Mahmoud
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- luis Blas Laina Juan
- Luke Evans (Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital) Mina MG Youssef
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- M Dur\ue1n-Mu\uf1oz-Cruzado (Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocio) Virginia
- M Emslie Katy
- M Harrison Ewen
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- M Keatley James
- M Leite-Moreira Andr\ue9
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- M Muguerza Jose
- M Nunes Quentin
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- MA Kaafarani Haytham
- MA Kaafarani Haytham
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- Macchi Alberto
- MacDonald Luisa
- Machairas (Royal Free Hospital) Nikolaos
- Madonini Marco
- Madrid)
- Madrid)
- Magalh\ue3es Maia Mariana
- Magne Augestad Knut
- Magowan Drew
- Maha H Haqqani (Boston Medical Center) Frederick T Drake
- Maisonneuve Emeline
- Majkowska Agata
- Majkowski (Northern General Hospital Lawrence
- Mak (Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham) Jason
- Malabarba Stefano
- Malerba Michele
- Maninder Kalkat 7
- Mannan Syed
- Manson Joanna
- Mansuri Ahmer
- Mantoglu (Sakarya University Research and Educational Hospital) Baris
- Manu Nichola
- Manzoni 56 Via
- Maqsood Afnan
- Marano Alessandra
- Marchbank Adrian
- Marcos-Santos Pablo
- Marinos Kouris (Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust) Spyros
- Marqueta De Salas Maria
- Marrano Enrico
- Mart\uedn-Rom\ue1n Lorena
- Mart\uednez P\ue9rez Carolina
- Mart\uednez-dePaz Fernando
- Martel Lozano Saida
- Martin (St Mary's Hospital) Guy
- Martin Emmeline
- Martin Janet
- Martin-Albo Lorena
- Martine Uittenbogaart (M\ue1xima Medical Center) Wouter KG Leclercq
- Martinelli Fabio
- Martinez-German Antonio
- Martinez-Pinedo Carlos
- Martins Ricardo
- Marwan Hisham
- Marzi Federica
- MAS Baig Mirza
- Mateos-Sierra (Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Mara\uf1\uf3n) Olga
- Mater Studiorum University of Bologna) Alma
- Mathieu (CHU Besan\ue7on) Pierre
- Matute-Najarro Maria-Soledad
- Maw Andrew
- Mazingi Dennis
- Mazzaferro (Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori Vincenzo
- McCanny (Antrim Area Hospital) Andrew
- McKenzie Katherine
- McLarty (Northumbria NHS Hospital Trust) Nicola
- McPherson Iain
- Medina Esther
- Mediratta Saniya
- Medone Marzia
- Mehra (Guy's and St Thomas\u2019 NHS Foundation Trust) Gautam
- Mele Simone
- Melero-Cort\ue9s Lidia
- Melody Baeza (Morales Meseguer University Hospital) Jos\ue9 Aguilar
- Mendon\ue7a Ata\uedde Gomes Gustavo
- Mendoza-Moreno Fernando
- Meneghini Simona
- Merate
- Mercante Giuseppe
- Merdrignac (Rennes University Hospital) Aude
- Metallidis Symeon
- Michel (Pinderfields Hospital) Martin
- Migliore Marco
- Milan)
- Milan)
- Milan)
- Miller Douglas
- Minaya- Bravo Ana
- Minaya-Bravo Ana
- Minaya-Bravo Ana
- Minaya-Bravo Ana
- Mingoli Andrea
- Minto Gary
- Mirabella Antonello
- Misra Nikhil
- Mitrasinovic Stefan
- Miu Victor
- Moawad (Royal Victoria Hospital) Nader
- Mochet Sylvie
- Modabber Ali
- Mohammad Adam
- Mohan Midhun
- Moliner-S\ue1nchez Carmen
- Mondov\uec)
- Mongelli Francesco
- Monteleone (Ospedale San Leopoldo Mandic Michela
- Montuori Mauro
- Moore Rachel
- Mora-Guzm\ue1n (Hospital Santa B\ue1rbara) Ismael
- Morales Dieter
- Morales Xavier
- Morelli Luca
- Morelli Lucia
- Morgan Richard
- Morris Chris
- Mortini Pietro
- Mosca Angelo
- Moszkowicz David
- Moszkowicz David
- Motter Dema
- Moug Susan
- Mukherjee Samrat
- Munoz Rivas Ana
- Murcia)
- N Bence Matthew
- N Hopkinson David
- N Mashbari Hassan
- N Mashbari Hassan
- N Mashbari Hassan
- N Naumann David
- N Rao Jagan
- N Townshend David
- N\ufa\uf1ez Jordi
- Najdy Manhal
- Nakas (Glenfield Hospital Apostolos
- Namazov Ilgar
- Naredla Pradyumna
- Nasef Emmhamed
- Nassa Heeam
- Nath Rahul
- Navarro-S\ue1nchez Antonio
- Nazarian (Bupa Cromwell Hospital) Scarlet
- Neal Bhutiani (University of Louisville Hospital and Norton Hospital) Robert CG Martin
- Negri Giampiero
- Nehra Deepika
- Neil-Dwyer Jason
- Nepogodiev Dmitri
- Nepogodiev Dmitri
- Nepogodiev Dmitri
- Neri Jacopo
- Netherlands: Suzanne S Gisbertz Mustafa R Bulugma (Zawia Teaching Hospital). Mexico: Fernando Cordera (ABC Medical Center).
- Newton (Manchester Royal Infirmary) Katy
- Nikaj (Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Maggiore della Carit\ue0 Herald
- Niquen Milagros
- Nobile (Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Integrata di Verona) Sara
- Nogueiro Jorge
- Nogues Pevidal (Royo Villanova) Ana
- Novara)
- Ntirenganya Faustin
- Nugent Michael
- O Ademuyiwa Adesoji
- O Kavanagh Dara
- O Larkin John
- Oca\uf1a Juan
- of Amsterdam University
- of Ferrara) University
- of Insubria University
- of Milan) University
- of Surgeons in Training (ASiT) Association
- of Surgery) Department
- of Washington) University
- Okafor Barbara U.
- Okechukwu Valentine
- Oliva-Mompean (Hospital Universitario Virgen Macarena) Fernando
- Oliveira Ana
- OM Abdalla Mutwakil
- Omar M Omar
- OO Ayorinde John
- Osagie-Clouard (Epsom &
- Osman (Walsall Manor Hospital) Khabab
- Ottolina Jessica
- Ourieff (Mount Sinai Hospital) Jared
- Outani Oumaima
- Oyewole Bankole
- P Arnaud Alexis
- P Arnaud Alexis
- P Arnaud Alexis
- P Baker Markus
- P Belgaumkar Ajay
- P Boddy Alexander
- P Duffy (Nottingham City Hospital) John
- P Evans Jonathan
- P Hazelton Joshua
- P Jones Andrew
- P Jones Robert
- P Joyce Doireann
- P Kisiel Aaron
- P Pezzuto Anna
- P Singh Rabindra
- P\ue9rez-Gonz\ue1lez Marta
- P\ue9rez-Saborido Baltasar
- Pacheco-Sanchez David
- Padilla-Valverde (Hospital General Universitario De Ciudad Real) David
- Pai (Hammersmith Hospital) Madhava
- Paiella Salvatore
- Paisley (Brighton and Sussex NHS Trust Samuel
- Palermo)
- Palini Gianmarco
- Palmeri Matteo
- Parente Alessandro
- Parlanti Daniele
- Parmar Chetan
- Pascual Angela
- Pata Francesco
- Pata Francesco
- Patel Mahul
- Pathak Abhijit
- Patil Sangram
- Pattyn Piet
- Peckham- Cooper Adam
- Pedram Panahi (University Hospitals Plymouth NHS Trust) Mariam Rela
- Pedrazzani Corrado
- Pellino Gianluca
- Pereira Andr\ue9
- Pereira-Neves Ant\uf3nio
- Perez-Diaz Md
- Perivoliotis (General University Hospital of Larissa) Konstantinos
- Perkins Clare
- Perotto (CHU Saint Etienne) Ornella
- Perra Teresa
- Petrone Patrizio
- Phenix George
- Piacenza)
- Picazo Sara
- Picon-Rodriguez Rafael
- Piloni Martina
- Pingarr\uf3n-Mart\uedn Lorena
- Pinotti Enrico
- Pizzini Paolo
- PM de Vries Jean-Paul
- Pockney Peter
- Podolsky Dina
- Poggioli Gilberto
- Pompili Cecilia
- Pontari Michael
- Porcu Alberto
- Portugal: Hugo Santos-Sousa Pakistan: Mariyah Anwer (Jinnah postgraduate medical center).
- Potter (Royal Bournemouth Hospital) Ryan
- Price Claire
- Prita Daliya 8
- Pruvot (Lille University Hospital) Fran\ue7ois-Ren\ue9
- PTSurg ItSURG
- Pujol-Muncunill Roger
- Puppo Andrea
- Q Mehdi (University of Texas Medical Branch) Mohammad
- Quante Markus
- Quintana-Villamandos Bego\uf1a
- Qureshi Ali
- R Burke Joshua
- R Davidson Brian
- R Dixon Jan
- R Fretwell Kenneth
- R Gujjuri Rohan
- R Gujjuri Rohan
- R Kowal Mikolaj
- R O\u2019Neill John
- R Sarma Diwakar
- R Spalding Duncan
- R Springford Laurie
- Rachel Baumber (Royal National Orthopaedic Hospital) James T Parry
- Radenkovic Dejan
- Rahman Saad (Medway Maritime Hospital) Abdel
- Rakvin Ivan
- Ramallo-Sol\ueds Irene
- Ramcharan Sean
- Ramos Diego
- Ramos-Bonilla Antonio
- Ramos-De la Medina Antonio
- Ramzi Joussi
- Rathinam Sridhar
- Rausa Emanuele
- Ravaioli Matteo
- Ravindran Sharanya
- Raymond (Royal Lancaster Infirmary) Thomas
- Razik Aisha
- Redfern (Furness General Hospital) Jennifer
- Reguera-Rosal Julio
- Rey-Biel Juan
- Rey-Valcarcel Cristina
- RG Sheel Andrea
- Ribolla Marta
- Richards Tomos
- Richmond (University of Maryland Medical Center) Michael
- Righini (Ospedale del Delta Erminio
- Rio-Gomez Javier
- Riuniti Villa Sofia-Cervello Ospedali
- Riyat Harjoat
- Rizvi Sana
- Roberts Keith
- Roberts Matthew
- Robertson (University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire) Stuart
- Robertson (University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences) Ronald
- Robin-Valle Alvaro
- Rochon Melissa
- Rojo Mikel
- Rolli Luigi
- Romano Silvio
- Rome)
- Romford)
- Ross Elizabeth
- Ross Howard
- Rottoli Matteo
- Royal Hospital) Princess
- Ruiz (Hospital General Universitario Reina Sof\ueda Miguel
- Ruiz- Grande Fernando
- Ruiz-Martin (Rey Juan Carlos University Hospital) Irene
- Ruiz-Soriano (Hospital Cl\uednico Universitario de Valladolid) Mar\ueda
- Ruzzenente Andrea
- Ryska Ondrej
- S Abdelaal (Alexandria Main University Hospital) Ahmed
- S Al Maadany Faraj
- S Faria Carlos
- S Hammond John
- S Hossain Fahad
- S Jeyaretna Deva
- S Jones Conor
- S Khan (Queen Alexandra Hospital) Jim
- S Moura Francisco
- S Ng-Kamstra Joshua
- S Sica Giuseppe
- S Tamimy Muhammad
- S Wadley Martin
- S\ue1nchez- Arteaga Alejandro
- SA Taher Ahmed
- Saez Carlos
- Sahnan Kapil
- Sahni Arun
- Salim Ali
- Salvia Roberto
- Sammarco Giuseppe
- Sampaio-Alves Mafalda
- San Miguel-Mendez Carlos
- Sanchez del Pueblo Cristina
- Sanchez-Fuentes Maria-Nieves
- Sanchez-Pelaez Daniel
- Sanchez-Perez Coral
- Sanchez-Rubio Maria
- Sancho-Muriel Jorge
- Sanchon Fructuoso Lorena
- Sanders Julie
- Santero-Ramirez Maria-Pilar
- Santora Thomas
- Santoro Antonio
- Santos Irene
- Sapienza Paolo
- Sartarelli (Sant\u2019Orsola Hospital Lodovico
- Sarveswaran Janahan
- Sasia Diego
- Sassari) A. O. U.
- Saudemont Alain
- Saudi-Moro Sef
- Saxena Dolly
- Saxena Shobhit
- Sayasneh Ahmad
- Scalabre Aurelien
- Schache Andrew
- Schiavina Riccardo
- Schineis (Charit\ue9 University Medicine Christian
- Schreckenbach Teresa
- Scorza Antonella
- Scott Lucy
- Seegert (ProMedica Toledo Hospital) Sara
- Seguin-Givelet Agathe
- Senent-Boza Ana
- Serrano Gonz\ue1lez Javier
- Sette Laghi Asst
- Seymour Keith
- Shabana Amanda
- Shah (The Whittington Hospital) Sujay
- Shah Jigar
- Shah Karishma
- Shah Preena
- Shakir Taner
- Shalaby (Mansoura University Hospital) Mostafa
- Shankar (Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust Sushma
- Shaw Richard
- Sheffield)
- Shehata Sameh
- Shelley Hwang E.
- Shen Ban Vin
- Shenfine Amy
- Sheridan Kelda
- Sherief Ahmed
- Sherif Mohamed
- Shinkwin Michael
- Shu Sebastian
- Siaw-Acheampong Kwabena
- Sileri (San Raffaele Scientific Institute Pierpaolo
- Singh Abhinav
- Singh Shailendra
- Sinha Sanjay
- Siragusa (Policlinico Tor Vergata Hospital Leandro
- Sivaprakasam Rajesh
- Sivayoganathan Sriharan
- SJ Ledesma Frances
- Smillie Robert
- Smith (Countess of Chester Hospital) Claire
- Smith Andrew
- Smith Christopher
- Sochorova (Royal Liverpool University Hospital) Dana
- Society of Coloproctology (ESCP) European
- Society of Colorectal Surgery (SICCR) Italian
- Soggiu Fiammetta
- Sohrabi (St Bartholomew's Hospital) Catrin
- Sohrabi (Whipps Cross University Hospital) Catrin
- Sohrabi Catrin
- Solari (Royal Gwent Hospital) Francesca
- Solli Piergiorgio
- Soreide Kjetil
- Soto Montesinos Cristina
- SpainSurg
- Spinelli Antonino
- Spinelli Antonino
- Spoletini (Sant'Eugenio Hospital) Domenico
- Spriano Giuseppe
- Sravanam Sanskrithi
- Ssentongo (Pennsylvania State University) Paddy
- Stanger Sophie
- Stavroulias Dionisios
- Steel (Sunderland Royal Hospital) Ben
- Stella Marco
- Stewart Robbie
- Stringer Sally
- Sudan: Osman M Ali Elima P Cagigal- Ortega (Hospital Universitario Severo Ochoa).
- Sulen Nina
- Sundar Sudha
- Sundhu (Aintree University Hospital) Matthew
- Surgical Research Collaborative (ISRC) Irish
- Suri (University of California Davis Health Avni
- Swansea)
- Switzerland: Dimitri Christoforidis Ali A Ali karar (Al-rajhi).
- Syed Arooj
- Szatmary Peter
- T Colonna Emily
- T Enjuto Diego
- T Montella (Azienda Unit\ue0 Sanitaria Locale-IRCCS di Reggio Emilia) Maria
- TA Neely David
- Tabiri Stephen
- Tadross Daniel
- Taglietti Lucio
- Tansey (Princess Alexandra Hospital) Rosamond
- Tartaglia Dario
- Tawheed (Endemic Medicine Department Ahmed
- Tayeh Salim
- Testa Valentina
- Tewari Nilanjana
- Thoenissen Philipp
- Thomas (Worcestershire Acute Hospitals NHS Trust) Kane
- Thrush Jessica
- Tierney Sean
- Tiwari Abhinav
- Tobias Teles (Hospital de Cascais - Dr. Jos\ue9 de Almeida) Pedro A Serralheiro
- Toledo Enrique
- Tonini Valeria
- Torkington Jared
- Torzilli Guido
- Totty Joshua
- Tousidonis Manuel
- Townend Philip
- Townsend Catherine
- Trompeter (St George's Hospital) Alex
- Trotta Francesco
- Truant St\ue9phanie
- Trujillo-D\uedaz Jeancarlos
- Tsoulfas George
- Tsoulfas Georgios
- Turco Celia
- Turkey: Volkan Ozben Georgios Peros (Kantonsspital Winterthur).
- Turrado- Rodriguez Victor
- Turri Giulia
- Tustin (Cumberland Infirmary) Harry
- Tyler Jayne
- Tzedakis Stylianos
- Tzovaras George
- Ullah Ramzan
- Unit\ue0 Sanitaria Locale di Ferrara Azienda
- United Kingdom: Richard J Davies Alp Yildiz (Yildirim Beyazit University Yenimahalle Training and Research Hospital).
- United States: John RT Monson (AdventHealth Orlando) Lavinia Onos (York Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust).
- University Hospitals NHS Trust) Nottingham
- University of Rome) Sapienza
- University) Goethe
- University) Helwan
- Urban (University of Colorado Hospital) Shane
- Urbani (Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria San'Anna Alessia
- Usai Antonella
- V Bhavaraju Avi
- V Comini Lara
- V Feo Carlo
- V Marino Marco
- V Shaw Abigail
- V\ue1zquez- Fern\ue1ndez Andrea
- Vaccarella (Azienda Ospedaliera Gianpaolo
- Valdes- Hernandez Javier
- Valsecchi Luca
- Vashisht Rajiv
- VCO) Asl
- Venkatesan (Glan Clwyd Hospital) Gowtham
- Vera-Mansilla Cristina
- Vergari (Ospedali Riuniti di Ancona) Roberto
- Vescio (University 'Magna Graecia' of Catanzaro) Giuseppina
- Vidya Raghavan
- Vieira (Centro Hospital Universit\ue1rio S\ue3oJo\ue3o) Paula
- Vijay Vardhini
- Vimalachandran Dale
- Vimalachandran Dale
- Violante Tommaso
- Vovola Fernanda
- Vulliamy Paul
- W Endorf (Hennepin Healthcare) Frederick
- W Etchill Eric
- W L\uf6ffler Markus
- W L\uf6ffler Markus
- Wall Rosemary
- Wallwork Kate
- Ward Alex
- Warwick (University Hospital Southampton) David
- Waseem Saima
- Weaver Helen
- Wells Fiona
- Wen Jiaxin
- West Raha
- Whitehall Emma
- Wild Laura
- Wilkins Alex
- Williams Gethin
- Williams Matthew
- Winnand (University Hospital Aachen) Philipp
- Wong (Addenbrooke's Hospital) Ken
- Worku (Queen\u2019s Medical Centre Dawit
- Wright Naomi
- WS Ho (Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust Michael
- WT Ngu Albert
- y Cajal) Cristina Cerro (Hospital Universitario Ram\uf3n
- Y Oo (Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery Aung
- y Polit\ue9cnico La Fe) Blas Flor (Hospital Universitario
- Y van der Plas Willemijn
- Yalamanchili Seema
- Yershov (South Warwickshire NHS Foundation Trust) Danylo
- Young Richard
- Yousra Ahmed (Portsmouth Hospital NHS Trust) Simon Toh
- Yurttas Can
- Zadegan Frederic
- Zafar (Northwick Park Hospital) Noman
- Zakaria Rasheed
- Zambon Martina
- Zanini Nicola
- ZE Durst Alexander
- Zerbib Philippe
- Zonta (Ospedale San Biagio Sandro
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 01/01/2020
- Field of study
Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research
Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis
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- Aahlin E. K.
- Aamer A.
- Aaniana K.
- Ababneh A.
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- Publication venue
- Oxford University Press
- Publication date
- 01/01/2022
- Field of study
Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US 92492millionusingapproach1and73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was 95004millionusingapproach1and75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially
Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy
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- Espinoza F
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- Macdonald E
- Macdonald KL
- Maceviciute K
- Macfarlane A
- Machaca M
- Machain Vega GM
- Machain Vega GM
- Maciejec L
- Madiba T
- Madkor MH
- Madrid Barrientos LA
- Maffioli A
- Maffioli A
- Magdy A
- Magdy B
- Magdy E
- Magdy H
- Magdy M
- Magdy S
- Magee C
- Maghrabi A
- Maghrabi AA
- Magri D
- Mahanty S
- Maharaj G
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- Mahmoud B
- Mahmoud H
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- Mahmoud MI
- Mahmoud S
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- Maison K
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- Makama J
- Makinde M
- Makupe A
- Malaga B
- Malavenda M
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- Malik P
- Malik TAM
- Mamdouh E
- Mamdouh R
- Manatakis DK
- Manchego Bautista AC
- Manchego Bautista AC
- Manfreda S
- Mangan C
- Mangan C
- Mangiapane M
- Manipal CE
- Maniscalco A
- Mann T
- Mannu GS
- Mano MJB
- Manrique Sila G
- Manrique Sila GC
- Manriquez-Reyes M
- Manrrique Sila G
- Mansor EY
- Mansour B
- Mansour S
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- Maraie N
- Marcelo Delgado J
- Marey A
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- Margaritis M
- Maria Garcia-Perez J
- Mariani A
- Marinkovic B
- Marinos C
- Marks E
- Marples L
- Marret J-B
- Marroquin Rodriguez DE
- Marshall DC
- Martian B-V
- Martin A
- Mas R
- Mason C
- Mat TNT
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- Matheu A
- Mathew SW
- Matos-Puig R
- Mattar O
- Matter SM
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- Mayasari M
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- Mendoza I
- Menegussi J
- Mensah E
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- Mentula P
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- Merlo MS
- Mesbah N
- Meshref A
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- Metwally MM
- Migliore M
- Mihaljevic AL
- Mihaljevic AL
- Mihanovic J
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- Minguez Garcia J
- Minguez G
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- Miranda C
- Mircea H
- Mirghani D
- Mironescu A
- Mironescu A
- Mironescu AS
- Mironescu AS
- Mirza A
- Mirza S
- Mistry A
- Mitrasinovic S
- Mitroudi M
- Mitroudis N
- Mittal A
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- Miyarde Leon A
- Mizzi C
- Mizzi S
- Mlotshwa M
- Moaty M
- Mochet S
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- Modolo MM
- Modolo MM
- Moe TT
- Mogan YP
- Moghazy ME
- Mohamed A
- Mohamed A
- Mohamed AM
- Mohamed AR
- Mohamed B
- Mohamed F
- Mohamed I
- Mohamed M
- Mohamed MA
- Mohamed MAEH
- Mohamed MM
- Mohamed O
- Mohamed SR
- Mohameden A
- Mohammad A
- Mohammad A
- Mohammed A
- Mohammed A
- Mohammed AR
- Mohammed H
- Mohammed MM
- Mohammed MMH
- Mohammed S
- Mohan H
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- Mohan M
- Mok YT
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- Monteleone M
- Monteleone M
- Montes I
- Montes I
- Montoya Botero JA
- Montrimaite M
- Montrimaite M
- Moodley Y
- Moore R
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- Mora JJV
- Morales C
- Morandi E
- Moreira G
- Moreno SC
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- Morsi A
- Morsi M
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- Morton R
- Mosad A
- Mosalum O
- Mostafa HA
- Mostafa M
- Mostafa M
- Mousa M
- Moussa O
- Moustafa A
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- Mowafy B
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- Mshelbwala P
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- Mukuzunga C
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- Munipalle PC
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- Muzio E
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- Nagy GS
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- Nanthakumaran S
- Napolitano L
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- Naqvi SA
- Naqvi T
- Naranjo Aristizaibal FA
- Narayanan R
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- Narvestad JK
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- Nataraja R
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- Nazir M
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- Ndlovu SR
- Ndwambi P
- Negida A
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- Nepogodiev D
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- Nestorovic M
- Nevieraite V
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- Ngwa TE
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- Njokanma I
- Nnajiuba H
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- Nofal E
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- Noukpozounkou B
- Novak A
- Nowers J
- Nsengimana VJP
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- Nurqistan HD
- Nwabuoku E
- Nwinee V
- Nwokoro C
- Nyberg J
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- Palomino Castillo VD
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- Papaskarlatos I-A
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- Pena L
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- Perez Velasquez CI
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- Pertersen Servin GR
- Pesenti G
- Petrikenas S
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- Picardo A
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- Pinkney T
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- Prabhudesai A
- Pranevicius R
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- Preckailaite E
- Primavesi F
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- Punja V
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- Qureshi AU
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- Ramarez Cabrera CC
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- Ruiz-Tovar J
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- Samaraweera DI
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- Schultz JK
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- Scott M
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- Semeda N
- Semiz A
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- Senanayake KJ
- Senanayake WSMKJ
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- Sobnach S
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- Soeselo DA
- Sokratous A
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- Solar Garcia L
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- Soldevila-Verdeguer C
- Soley R
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- Soltani N
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- Staerkle RF
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- Stefanopoulos A
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- Summerour V
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- Sundstrom SM
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- Tackie E
- Taddei A
- Tade A
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- Taha EMS
- Tahboub H
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- Taieb C
- Taiwo A
- Taiwo O
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- Tammam A
- Tan C
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- Tan JK
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- Tan RCK
- Tan YK
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- Tanase A
- Tang A
- Tang L
- Tani SI
- Tansoker I
- Tarek A
- Tarek A
- Tarek D
- Targa S
- Tariq S
- Tata MD
- Tatagiba LS
- Tawfik BA
- Tawfik G
- Tawfik G
- Taylor F
- Teasdale E
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- Teasdale E
- Teasdale E
- Tedeschi U
- Tedjaatmadja C
- Telfah MM
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- Temoche E
- Tennakoon A
- Teo SY
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- Thabet W
- Thalgaspitiya SPB
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- Thanusan V
- Tharmalingam S
- Theodosopoulos T
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- Todd KO
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- Tolonen M
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- Tomas K
- Tori SA
- Toribio Orbegozo PA
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- Zerihun AB
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- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 15/10/2018
- Field of study
Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe
The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance
- Author
- Aanniz Tarek
- Abar Aden Elmi
- Abbad Anass
- Abdelfattah May
- Abdelhamid W.
- Abdella Saro
- Abdellah Faouzi
- Abdelmjid El Oualid
- Abdelmoula Fatma
- Abdelmoulah F.
- Abderrahmane Maaroufi
- Abderrazak Rfaki
- Abdillahi Idil Salah
- Abdissa Alemseged
- Abdo I.
- Abdoelraheem Mohamed Hassan
- Abe Haruka
- Abebe Markos
- Abechi Priscilla
- Abera Adugna
- Abi Rachid
- Abias Abe G.
- Abichu Getachew
- Abid N.
- Abid Nabil
- Abid Salma
- Abilio Nuro
- Abimbola Sharon
- Abo Shama Noura M
- Abosede O.
- Aboubaker Mohamed Houmed
- Abouelhoda Mohamed
- Abouelnaga S.
- Abualas Elamin
- Abubeker Ramalia Chabi
- Abuelenein Ehab Abdelkader
- Abuzaid Nadir
- Abworo Edward O.
- Ada Diosdado Odjama Nseng
- Addidle Michael
- Adegbola Richard
- Adegnika Akim A.
- Adegnika Ayola Akim
- Adel Abd Monaem
- Adeniji Johnson A.
- Adepetun Tomiwa
- Adesegun A.
- Adesuyi Omoare
- Adetifa Ifedayo M. O.
- Adewumi Olubusuyi M.
- Adewumi Oluwatimilehin
- Adewumi Praise
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- Adjiratou Aissatou B. A.
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- Adu Bright
- Adu Eric
- Adusei-Poku Mildred
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- Agbodzi B.
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- Aguenaou Hassan
- Agwa Sara Hassan
- Agweyu Ambrose
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- Ahmed Rahma
- Ahmed Shymaa S.
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- Ahmed Yahaya Ali
- Ahouidi Ambroise
- Ahuka-Mundeke Steve
- Ahumibe Anthony
- Ahyong Vida
- Aissam El Aliani
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- Albert Mélanie
- AlEmam Adba Alfatih
- Alemayehu Dawit Hailu
- Alemu Fekadu
- Algheriani Raiva
- Ali Abraham
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- Ali Mohamed Ahmed
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- Bootsma Sacha
- Borrmann Steffen
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- Camara Alimou
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- Daghfous Riadh
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- Dal Monego Simeone
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- Damena D.
- Damilari Dabiri
- Daniels Rodney S.
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- Daou Amadou
- Dara Antoine
- Daubenberger Claudia
- David Kumbelembe
- Davids Micheala
- Davies Mary-Ann
- Dawood R.M.
- Dawood Reham
- de Laurent Zaydah R.
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- De Nittis Rosella
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- De Sanctis R.
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- DeAlmeida Mary
- Debela Alemu Tike
- Delaney Kayla
- Delaporte Eric
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- Dellagi Koussay
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- Devaux Christian A.
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- Dia Ndongo
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- Diallo Amadou
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- Diallo Sada
- Diarra B.
- Diarra Bassirou
- Diaw Papa Alassane
- Diawara Idrissa
- Dieng Alle Baba
- Dieng Assane
- Diergaardt Azaria
- Diop Mamadou
- Diop Oumy
- Djimde Abdoulaye
- Djingarey Mamoudou Harouna
- Djomsi Dowbiss Meta
- Djontu Jean Claude
- Dobi Paul
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- Dorkenoo Ameyo
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- Houda Harmak
- Houechenou Rotimi Myrabelle Avome
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- Huddleston John
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- Hussein Salah Eldin
- Ian Lipkin W.
- Ibrahim Muntaser elTayeb
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- Ige F.A.
- Iguosadolo Nosamiefan
- Ihazmad Hassan
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- Iknane A.A.
- Imam Zeinab S.
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- Inndi Rui
- Intyre Leigh-Anne MC
- Iranzadeh Arash
- Ismael Nalia
- Ismail A.
- Ismail Arshad
- Isong Josiah Ayoola
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- Jelly Lauren
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- Jimoh Yusuf
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- Jo Wendy Karen
- JOEL Ireoluwa Yinka
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- NDiaye Anna Julienne Selbe
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- Seadawy M.G.
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- Sisay Abay
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- SULAIMAN Mariam Kehinde
- Sule Waidi
- Sun Fengming
- Swanson Kena
- Sylvanus Okogbenin
- Sylverken Augustina A.
- Symeker S.L.
- Symekher Samwel Lifumo
- Tagajdid Rida
- Taha A.G.
- Taha Ahmed
- Taha Chouati
- Taiwo Babafemi O.
- Takada A.
- Takawira Faustinos T.
- Takawira Tatenda
- Takou Desire
- Taloa K.A.
- Tamfum Jean-Jacques M.
- Tan M.
- Tan Michelle
- Tarnagda Zekiba
- Tarupiwa Andrew
- Tatfeng Mirabeau Y.
- Tato C.
- Tato Cristina M.
- Taweh Fahn M.
- Tayachew Adamu
- Tayimetha Carolle Yanique
- Taylor Susan
- Tchibozo Carine
- Tchoudjin Herve Christian Paho
- Tebeje Yenew K.
- Tefelo Thela
- Tefera D.A.
- Tefera Dessalegn Abeje
- Tegally Houriiyah
- Tegomoh Bryan
- Tegueni Kokou
- Tei-Maya
- Teka Gizaw
- Tembo John
- Tesfaye Abraham
- Tesfaye Gelanew
- Tesfaye Kassahun
- Tessema Sofonias K.
- Testimony Olumade
- Thiam Aminata Sileymane
- Thilliez Gaetan
- Thiongo K.
- Thomas Van L.
- Tia Alie
- Tinto Halidou
- Tollera Getachew
- Tombolomako T. B.
- Tomkins-Tinch C.
- Tomori Oyewale
- Tongo Marcel
- Top Ndeye Marieme
- Tordo Noël
- Toure Abdoulaye
- Touré Bamba Fatoumata
- Touzani Charifa Drissi
- Touzani Otmane
- Trabelsi Sameh
- Traoré
- Traoré Adjaratou
- Treurnicht Florette
- Triki H.
- Triki Henda
- Trotter Alexander J.
- Tsegay Yao
- Tshiabuila Derek
- Tsiry R.
- Tsofa Benjamin
- Tuki Keyru
- Tumedi Kefentse A.
- Turki M.
- Tushabe Phionah
- Tuyisenge Patrick
- Tyers Lynn
- Uche Peace O.
- Ugwu C.A.
- Ulrich M.
- Umumararungu Esperance
- Umuringa Jeanne d’Arc
- Upton Arlo
- Ushijima Yuri
- Ussher James
- Utpatel Christian
- Uwanibe Jessica N.
- Uwituze Arlene
- van der Eijk Annemiek
- van der Linden Anne
- van der Linden Antje
- van der Werf Sylvie
- Van Rooyen G.
- van Rooyen Gerhard
- van Wyk Stephanie
- van Zyl Gert U.
- Vanaerschot M.
- Vanmechelen Bert
- Vanpeene Maud
- Velavan Thirumalaisamy P.
- Venter Marietjie
- Vernet Marie-Astrid
- Viana R.
- Vickos U.
- Victoir Kathleen
- Vida Ahyong
- Vidal Nicole
- Viegas Sofia
- Vincent Grace
- Vinze Anika
- Voegtly Logan J.
- von Gottberg Anne
- Waberi Zeinab Ali
- Wadi Amira Suliaman
- Wadonda N.
- Wadula J.
- Wagner Philipp
- Wahab Kolawole Wasiu
- Waitumbi John
- Walter Mathias C.
- Wamala Joseph F.
- Wandera Dennis N.
- Wang Jing
- Wang Xiuhua
- Wani Gregory
- Wanjohi Dorcas W.
- Wanok Stephen
- Waruhiu C.N.
- Waruhiu Cecilia
- Wasfi Fares
- Watters Chaselynn M.
- Wawina-Bokalanga Tony
- Wayengera Misaki
- Wayoro Oby
- Webby R.
- Webby Richard
- Weldemariam A.G.
- Weldemariam Atsbeha G.
- Werno Anja
- Wiley Michael R.
- Wilkinson David
- Wilkinson Eduan
- Williamson Carolyn
- Wilson Shannon
- Woelfel R.
- Wohl Shirlee
- Wolh S.
- Wolter Nicole
- Wuduri Zara
- Wulf Ben
- Wurie I.
- Wurie Isatta
- Xavier Joicymara S.
- Xiang Zuzheng
- Xie Hong
- Yadouleton Anges
- Yadouleton Yahya
- Yakout Mostfa
- Yandoko Rivalyn Nakoune
- Yang Qi
- Yao Kouadio T.
- Yassine Kasmi
- Yassine Zouheir
- Yasuda Jiro
- Yatassaye Bouna
- Yeboah C.
- Yeboah Richmond
- Yeboah-Manu Dorothy
- Yemi Bright K.
- Yiaba Cyrus
- Yiaba Warren Cyrus
- Yu Popova A.
- Yusuf Nyam Itse
- Yusuf Yacob Mohamed
- Zablon J. Matoke D.
- Zablon J.O.
- Zaher Tarek Refaat Elnagdy Raafat
- Zahra El Ansari Fatima
- Zahran Manal Hamdy
- Zekri Abdel-Rahman N.
- Zhang J.
- Zhou Pei
- Zinyowera Sekesai
- Zong Minko O.
- Zongo Arsène
- Zorgani A.
- Zouaki Amal
- Zulu P.
- Zumla Ali
- Zumla Alimuddin
- Zuze Boitumelo
- Publication venue
- 'American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)'
- Publication date
- 07/10/2022
- Field of study
INTRODUCTION
Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic.
RATIONALE
We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs).
RESULTS
Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants.
CONCLUSION
Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century
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