Hydrological analysis as a technical tool to support strategic and economic development : a case study of Lake Naivasha, Kenya

Effective integrated water resources management requires reliable estimation of an overall basin water budget and of hydrologic fluctuations between groundwater and surface-water resources. Seasonal variability of groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes impacts on the water balance. The long term lake water balance was calculated by Modflow using the stage-volume rating curve of Lake Package LAK3. The long term average storage volume change is 8.4 × 108 m3/month. The lake water balances suggests that the lake is not in equilibrium with the inflow and outflow terms. Using field abstraction data analysis and model simulation, the combined volume of lake-groundwater used for industrial abstraction since the last three decades was estimated. This requires an average abstraction amount of 7.0 × 106 m3/month with a long term trend of abstraction ratio 30% (groundwater) and 70% (lake water) since 1980. The amount resulted in a lake which might have been 4.8 m higher than was observed in the last stress period (2010).A long term regional groundwater budget is calculated reflecting all water flow in to and out of the regional aquifer. The model water balance suggests that lake Navaisha basin is in equilibrium with a net outflow about 1% greater than the inflow over the calibrated period of time (1932–2010). The regional model is best used for broad-scale predictions and can be used to provide a general sense of groundwater to surface water and groundwater to groundwater impacts in the basin. A basin wide water resource management strategy can be designed by integrating the lake/wetland within the regional groundwater model to increase the level of sustainable production and good stewardship in Lake Navaisha. Such hydrological analysis is crucial in making the model serve as simulator of the response of lake stage to hydraulic stresses applied to the aquifer and variation in climatic conditio

Social Anxiety Disorder Among Undergraduate Students of Hawassa University, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Ethiopia.

Introduction:Social anxiety disorder (SAD), also called social phobia, is an uncontrollable fear of social situations, which involve fear of observation or making contact with strangers. So, helping individuals with social anxiety, which is among the factors affecting mental health, can significantly influence a students' mental health and prevent other problems. Objective:The study aimed at assessing the magnitude of SAD and its determinants among undergraduate students of Hawassa University, College of Medicine and Health Sciences. Methods:An institution based cross-sectional study was conducted from April 1 to May 30, 2018, in Hawassa University, College of Medicine and Health Sciences. We selected participants by a stratified random sampling method, and we collected data independently from each stratum (department) using a 17 item self-rating Social Phobia Inventory (SPIN) scale to assess SAD. We performed multiple logistic regression analysis to find factors associated with SAD. Results:Out of 304 students, 293 completed the questionnaire, with a response rate of 96.3%. The mean age of the participants was 22.13 years with a standard deviation of ± 2.176, and 172 (58.7%) were males. The prevalence of SAD was 32.8%. Family history of mental illness (AOR=4.72, 95% CI (1.25, 17.74)), being a 3rd-year student (AOR=0.178, 95% CI (0.055, 0.57)) and being a 4th year student (AOR=0.15, 95% CI (0.049, 0.49)) were significantly associated with SAD. Conclusion:This study showed a high prevalence of SAD among medicine and health science students of Hawassa University. Therefore, the Ethiopian Ministry of Higher Education and university officials need to draw up a plan to reduce social phobia

Hecho del pleyto que Don Agustin Lopez de Reta lleva contra la ciudad de Tafalla, y Francisco de Colmerares, [sic] y Antillon secretario del Consejo, Patrono, y administrador de la fundacion del Convento de Capuchinos de dicha ciudad ...

Precede al tít.: "Muy ilustre señor"Tít. tomado de principio de textoTexto firmado por Francisco de Colmenares, y AntillonSe ha respetado la puntuación originalEn p. 3 consta la fecha más moderna, 1686Sign.: A-D

Estudio estadístico del potencial eólico del Cerro de la Virgen en Zacatecas, México

La capacidad instalada de energía en eólica en México, a finales del 2013, es de 1,917 MW, distribuida en 26 parques en 6 estados, donde Oaxaca representa más del 90% de capacidad instalada. En el presente trabajo se evalúan cinco métodos numéricos para la estimación de los parámetros de la función de distribución de Weibull, utilizando datos recabados por una estación meteorológica ubicada en el “Cerro de la Virgen” del estado de Zacatecas, durante un periodo de seis meses. La evaluación estadística se realiza por RMSE(error medio cuadrático) y 2 X (chi cuadrado), donde los métodos basados en iteraciones numéricas presentan el mejor ajuste al histograma de velocidad de viento. Se observa, que el método de la máxima verosimilitud es más preciso, a partir del cual se estima el potencial eólico del sitio, obteniendo resultados  prometedores para el desarrollo de proyectos basados en esta fuente alterna de energía

Estudio estadístico del potencial eólico del Cerro de la Virgen en Zacatecas, México

La capacidad instalada de energía en eólica en México, a finales del 2013, es de 1,917 MW, distribuida en 26 parques en 6 estados, donde Oaxaca representa más del 90% de capacidad instalada. En el presente trabajo se evalúan cinco métodos numéricos para la estimación de los parámetros de la función de distribución de Weibull, utilizando datos recabados por una estación meteorológica ubicada en el “Cerro de la Virgen” del estado de Zacatecas, durante un periodo de seis meses. La evaluación estadística se realiza por RMSE (error medio cuadrático) y 2 X (chi cuadrado), donde los métodos basados en iteraciones numéricas presentan el mejor ajuste al histograma de velocidad de viento. Se observa, que el método de la máxima verosimilitud es más preciso, a partir del cual se estima el potencial eólico del sitio, obteniendo resultados prometedores para el desarrollo de proyectos basados en esta fuente alterna de energía

Khat and alcohol use and risky sex behaviour among in-school and out-of-school youth in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Khat (an evergreen plant with amphetamine-like properties) and alcohol are widely consumed among the youth of Ethiopia. However, their relationship to risky sexual behaviour is not well described. This study was conducted to describe the magnitude of risky sexual behaviour (unprotected sex and early initiation of sexual activity) and its association with Khat and alcohol consumption in Ethiopian youths. METHODS: A probabilistic national sample of 20,434 in-school and out-of-school youths aged between 15 and 24 years of age was selected and interviewed regarding their sexual behavior and substance use. RESULTS: Over 20% of out-of-school youth had unprotected sex during the 12-month period prior to interview compared to 1.4% of in-school youth. Daily Khat intake was also associated with unprotected sex: adjusted OR (95% CI) = 2.26 (1.92, 2.67). There was a significant and linear association between alcohol intake and unprotected sex, with those using alcohol daily having a three fold increased odds compared to those not using it: adj. OR (95% CI) = 3.05 (2.38, 3.91). Use of substances other than Khat was not associated with unprotected sex, but was associated with initiation of sexual activity: adj. OR (95% CI) = 2.54 (1.84, 3.51). CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of out-of-school youth engage in risky sex. The use of Khat and alcohol and other substances is significantly and independently associated with risky sexual behaviour among Ethiopian youths

Long-Term Retention Rate of Tofacitinib in Rheumatoid Arthritis: An Italian Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: Tofacitinib (TOFA) was the first Janus kinase inhibitor (JAKi) to be approved for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, data on the retention rate of TOFA therapy are still far from definitive. Objective: The goal of this study is to add new real-world data on the TOFA retention rate in a cohort of RA patients followed for a long period of time. Methods: A multicenter retrospective study of RA subjects treated with TOFA as monotherapy or in combination with conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs) was conducted in 23 Italian tertiary rheumatology centers. The study considered a treatment period of up to 48 months for all included patients. The TOFA retention rate was assessed with the Kaplan–Meier method. Hazard ratios (HRs) for TOFA discontinuation were obtained using Cox regression analysis. Results: We enrolled a total of 213 patients. Data analysis revealed that the TOFA retention rate was 86.5% (95% CI: 81.8–91.5%) at month 12, 78.8% (95% CI: 78.8–85.2%) at month 24, 63.8% (95% CI: 55.1–73.8%) at month 36, and 59.9% (95% CI: 55.1–73.8%) at month 48 after starting treatment. None of the factors analyzed, including the number of previous treatments received, disease activity or duration, presence of rheumatoid factor and/or anti-citrullinated protein antibody, and presence of comorbidities, were predictive of the TOFA retention rate. Safety data were comparable to those reported in the registration studies. Conclusions: TOFA demonstrated a long retention rate in RA in a real-world setting. This result, together with the safety data obtained, underscores that TOFA is a viable alternative for patients who have failed treatment with csDMARD and/or biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs). Further large, long-term observational studies are urgently needed to confirm these results

The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis

Background Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000–18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000–18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km2 and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174–234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3·1 million (1·6–5·7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91–134 million) in the South-East Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43–63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thresholds is low, and when coupled with large uncertainty in the predictions, indicate additional data collection or intervention might be warranted before MDA programmes cease

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact