Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: Systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Objectives To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Design Systematic analysis. Main outcome measures Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). Results The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7 (95 uncertainty interval 0.4 to 15.6) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7 (27.2 to 36.6) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0, 95 uncertainty interval 42.6 to 54.6) than men (23.8, 15.6 to 32.7). Conclusions Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates. © Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited

Nicotinic I-123-5IA-85380 single photon emission computed tomography as a predictor of cognitive progression in alzheimer's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies

Objective: To investigate normalized 123I-5-Iodo-3-[2(S)-2-azetidinylmethoxy] pyridine (5IA-85380) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) imaging, a marker for the α4β2 nicotinic receptor, as a predictor of cognitive progression in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). Methods: Thirty-one patients with dementia (16 patients with AD and 15 patients with DLB) underwent 123I-5IA-85380 SPECT scanning. Image analysis was performed using statistical parametric mapping (SPM2), which involved spatial preprocessing of scans to standard Montreal Neurological Institute space and intensity normalization of each image to its mean global brain activity. Results: Regression analysis revealed that reduced normalized 123I-5IA-85380 uptake in left superior, middle, and inferior frontal gyri and prepost central and anterior cingulate regions significantly correlated with decline in executive function in a pooled group comprising AD and DLB. Conclusion: The findings, although preliminary, suggest that the cholinergic system may be more involved in neurodegenerative processes affecting some cognitive processes more than others, as such, this procedure may be useful for increased understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms responsible for neurodegeneration

In vivo [123I]CNS-1261 binding to D-serine-activated and MK801-blocked NMDA receptors: A storage phosphor imaging study in rats

Disturbances of activity of the glutamatergic neurotransmitter system in the brain are present in many neuropsychiatric disorders. The N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor is the most abundant receptor of the glutamatergic system. In the neurodegenerative events of Alzheimer's disease, excessive activation of NMDA receptors may contribute to neuronal death. Inhibition of NMDA receptor activation may have neuroprotective effects and (semi)quantitative imaging of the activated system may help in the selection of patients for such inhibition therapies. In this study we evaluated [123I]CNS-1261 binding in the rat brain. This radiotracer binds in vivo to the MK801 binding site of activated NMDA receptors. To determine the optimal time point for ex vivo assessments after bolus injection [123I]CNS-1261 binding in rats, we performed a time course biodistribution study using dissection techniques. [123I]CNS-1261 binding was also studied in the rat brain using autoradiography by means of storage phosphor imaging, with prior facilitation of NMDA receptor activation by injection of the potent coagonist D-serine and after blocking of the NMDA receptor binding site by MK801 injection in D-serine pretreated rats. Measurements of [123I]CNS-1261 uptake matched the distribution of similar tracers for the MK801 binding site of the NMDA receptor and revealed an optimal time point of 2 h post injection for the assessment of tracer distribution in the rat brain. The blocking experiments indicated specific binding of [123I]CNS-1261 to NMDA receptors but also a considerable amount of nonspecific binding. Facilitation of NMDA receptor activation by D-serine did not result in an enhancement of binding of the radiotracer in the NMDA receptor-rich rat hippocampus compared to the untreated group, as measured by autoradiography. In conclusion, our study has shown that [123I]CNS-1261 binding is influenced by NMDA receptor availability. However, high nonspecific binding limits quantification and small changes in receptor availability are unlikely to be detected

Alpha4beta2 nicotinic receptor status in Alzheimer's disease using 123I-5IA-85380 single-photon-emission computed tomography

Background: Loss of the α4β2 nicotinic receptor subtype is found at autopsy in Alzheimer’s disease. Objective: To investigate in vivo changes in this receptor using single-photon-emission CT (SPECT) with 123I-5-iodo-3-[2(S)-2-azetidinylmethoxy] pyridine (5IA-85380), a novel nicotinic acetylcholine receptor ligand which binds predominantly to the α4β2 receptor. Methods: 32 non-smoking subjects (16 with Alzheimer’s disease and 16 normal elderly controls) underwent 123I-5IA-85380 and perfusion (99mTc-hexamethylenepropyleneamine oxime (HMPAO)) SPECT scanning. Region of interest analysis was performed with cerebellar normalisation. Results: Significant bilateral reductions in nicotinic receptor binding were identified in frontal (left, p = 0.004; right, p = 0.002), striatal (left, p = 0.004; right, p = 0.003), right medial temporal (p = 0.04) and pons (p<0.001) in patients with AD compared to controls. There were no significant correlations with clinical or cognitive measures. The pattern of nicotinic binding significantly differed from that of perfusion in both patients with AD and controls. Both 123I-5IA-85380 and 99mTc-HMPAO SPECT imaging demonstrated similar diagnostic performance in correctly classifying controls and patients with AD. Conclusion: Using 123I-5IA-85380 SPECT we found changes consistent with significant reductions in the nicotinic α4β2 receptor in cortical and striatal brain regions. This method could facilitate diagnosis and may be useful for monitoring progression of the disease and response to treatment in patients with AD and related diseases

Alterations in nicotinic α4β2 receptor binding in vascular dementia using 123I-5IA-85380 SPECT: Comparison with regional cerebral blood flow

Objective: To investigate differences in distribution of alpha 4 beta 2 subtypes of nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) using the ligand I-123-5-Iodo-3-[2(S)-2-azetidinylmethoxy] pyridine (5IA-85380) and single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) in subjects with vascular dementia and age-matched controls. I-123-5IA-85380 binding was compared to corresponding regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) changes in the same subjects. Methods: Thirty subjects (14 vascular dementia and 16 controls) underwent I-123-5IA-85380 and rCBF ((99)mTc-exametazime) SPECT scanning. Image analysis was performed on voxel basis using statistical parametric mapping (SPM2). Results: Compared to controls, reductions in relative I-123-5IA-85380 uptake were identified in dorsal thalamus and right caudate in vascular dementia. Increase in scaled I-123-5IA-85380 uptake in cuneus was also demonstrated in vascular dementia relative to controls. Perfusion deficits in anterior cingulate were apparent in the patient group and did not appear to be associated with I-123-5IA-85380 changes. Conclusions: Reduced I-123-5IA-85380 uptake in vascular dementia was confined to sub-cortical regions, unlike the cortical reductions previously described in Alzheimer's disease. Elevation of normalised I-123-5IA-85380 uptake in cuneus in vascular dementia could be a compensatory response to reduced cholinergic activity in dorsal thalamus