Abschätzung der technischen und wirtschaftlichen Potentiale des Beitrags zur Energieversorgung und zur Minderung klimarelevanter Spurengase durch Kernenergie in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland : Studie A.4.2.a und A.4.2.b

In diesem Arbeitspaket A.4.2 werden die Möglichkeiten der Minderung von CO2-Emissionen durch den Einsatz der Kernenergie untersucht. Dabei werden sechs Einsatzbereiche betrachtet, in denen die Kernenergie eine CO2-Emissionsminderung durch Substitution fossiler Energieerzeugung bewirken kann. In Kapitel 2 werden mögliche CO2-Emissionsminderungen im Bereich der Stromerzeugung, in Kapitel 3 bei der Fern- bzw. Nahwärmeerzeugung diskutiert. In den Kapiteln 4 bis 7 werden die CO2-Minderungspotentiale durch die Nutzung der Kernenergie zur Veredelung fossiler Energieträger, zur Prozeßdampf- und Prozeßwärmeerzeugung, zur Wasserstofferzeugung über Elektrolyse und bei der tertiären Erdölförderung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland untersucht

Memory Concerns, Memory Performance and Risk of Dementia in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment

Background: Concerns about worsening memory ("memory concerns"; MC) and impairment in memory performance are both predictors of Alzheimer's dementia (AD). The relationship of both in dementia prediction at the pre-dementia disease stage, however, is not well explored. Refined understanding of the contribution of both MC and memory performance in dementia prediction is crucial for defining at-risk populations. We examined the risk of incident AD by MC and memory performance in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods: We analyzed data of 417 MCI patients from a longitudinal multicenter observational study. Patients were classified based on presence (n=305) vs. absence (n=112) of MC. Risk of incident AD was estimated with Cox Proportional-Hazards regression models. Results: Risk of incident AD was increased by MC (HR=2.55, 95% CI: 1.33-4.89), lower memory performance (HR=0.63, 95% CI: 0.56-0.71) and ApoE4-genotype (HR=1.89, 95% CI: 1.18-3.02). An interaction effect between MC and memory performance was observed. The predictive power of MC was greatest for patients with very mild memory impairment and decreased with increasing memory impairment. Conclusions: Our data suggest that the power of MC as a predictor of future dementia at the MCI stage varies with the patients' level of cognitive impairment. While MC are predictive at early stage MCI, their predictive value at more advanced stages of MCI is reduced. This suggests that loss of insight related to AD may occur at the late stage of MCI

STAT-1 decoy oligodeoxynucleotide inhibition of acute rejection in mouse heart transplants

During acute rejection of cardiac transplants endothelial cell–leukocyte interaction fuelled by co-stimulatory molecules like CD40/CD154 may ultimately lead to graft loss. One key player in up-regulating the expression of such pro-inflammatory gene products is the interferon-γ-dependent transcription factor STAT-1. Hence down-regulating interferon-γ-stimulated pro-inflammatory gene expression in the graft endothelial cells by employing a decoy oligodeoxynucleotide (dODN) neutralising STAT-1 may protect the graft. To verify this hypothesis, heterotopic mouse heart transplantation was performed in the allogeneic B10.A(2R) to C57BL/6 and syngeneic C57BL/6 to C57BL/6 strain combination without immunosuppression. Graft vessels were pre-treated with STAT-1 dODN, mutant control ODN (10 μM each) or vehicle (Ringer solution). Cellular rejection (vascular and interstitial component) was graded histologically and CD40, ICAM-1, VCAM-1, MCP-1, E-selectin and RANTES expression in the graft monitored by real time PCR 24 h and 9 days post-transplantation. Nine days after transplantation both rejection scores were significantly diminished by 85 and 70%, respectively, in STAT-1 dODN-treated allografts as compared to mutant control ODN-treated allografts. According to immunohistochemistry analysis, this was accompanied by a reduced infiltration of monocyte/macrophages and T cells into the graft myocardium. In addition, pro-inflammatory gene expression was strongly impaired by more than 80% in STAT-1 dODN-treated allografts 24 h post-transplantation but not in mutant control ODN or vehicle-treated allografts. This inhibitory effect on pro-inflammatory gene expression was no longer detectable 9 days post-transplantation. Single periprocedural treatment with a STAT-1 dODN thus effectively reduces cellular rejection in mouse heart allografts. This effect is associated both with an early decline in pro-inflammatory gene expression and a later drop in mononuclear cell infiltration

Memory Concerns, Memory Performance and Risk of Dementia in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment

Background: Concerns about worsening memory ("memory concerns"; MC) and impairment in memory performance are both predictors of Alzheimer's dementia (AD). The relationship of both in dementia prediction at the pre-dementia disease stage, however, is not well explored. Refined understanding of the contribution of both MC and memory performance in dementia prediction is crucial for defining at-risk populations. We examined the risk of incident AD by MC and memory performance in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods: We analyzed data of 417 MCI patients from a longitudinal multicenter observational study. Patients were classified based on presence (n=305) vs. absence (n=112) of MC. Risk of incident AD was estimated with Cox Proportional-Hazards regression models. Results: Risk of incident AD was increased by MC (HR=2.55, 95% CI: 1.33-4.89), lower memory performance (HR=0.63, 95% CI: 0.56-0.71) and ApoE4-genotype (HR=1.89, 95% CI: 1.18-3.02). An interaction effect between MC and memory performance was observed. The predictive power of MC was greatest for patients with very mild memory impairment and decreased with increasing memory impairment. Conclusions: Our data suggest that the power of MC as a predictor of future dementia at the MCI stage varies with the patients' level of cognitive impairment. While MC are predictive at early stage MCI, their predictive value at more advanced stages of MCI is reduced. This suggests that loss of insight related to AD may occur at the late stage of MCI

Plasma extracellular vesicle tau and TDP-43 as diagnostic biomarkers in FTD and ALS

Minimally invasive biomarkers are urgently needed to detect molecular pathology in frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Here, we show that plasma extracellular vesicles (EVs) contain quantifiable amounts of TDP-43 and full-length tau, which allow the quantification of 3-repeat (3R) and 4-repeat (4R) tau isoforms. Plasma EV TDP-43 levels and EV 3R/4R tau ratios were determined in a cohort of 704 patients, including 37 genetically and 31 neuropathologically proven cases. Diagnostic groups comprised patients with TDP-43 proteinopathy ALS, 4R tauopathy progressive supranuclear palsy, behavior variant FTD (bvFTD) as a group with either tau or TDP-43 pathology, and healthy controls. EV tau ratios were low in progressive supranuclear palsy and high in bvFTD with tau pathology. EV TDP-43 levels were high in ALS and in bvFTD with TDP-43 pathology. Both markers discriminated between the diagnostic groups with area under the curve values &gt;0.9, and between TDP-43 and tau pathology in bvFTD. Both markers strongly correlated with neurodegeneration, and clinical and neuropsychological markers of disease severity. Findings were replicated in an independent validation cohort of 292 patients including 34 genetically confirmed cases. Taken together, the combination of EV TDP-43 levels and EV 3R/4R tau ratios may aid the molecular diagnosis of FTD, FTD spectrum disorders and ALS, providing a potential biomarker to monitor disease progression and target engagement in clinical trials.</p

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2017 includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning