A risk profile for identifying community-dwelling elderly with a highrisk of recurrent falling: results of a 3-year prospective study

Introduction: The aim of the prospective study reported here was to develop a risk profile that can be used to identify community-dwelling elderly at a high risk of recurrent falling. Materials and methods: The study was designed as a 3-year prospective cohort study. A total of 1365 community-dwelling persons, aged 65 years and older, of the population-based Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam participated in the study. During an interview in 1995/1996, physical, cognitive, emotional and social aspects of functioning were assessed. A follow-up on the number of falls and fractures was conducted during a 3-year period using fall calendars that participants filled out weekly. Recurrent fallers were identified as those who fell at least twice within a 6-month period during the 3-year follow-up. Results: The incidence of recurrent falls at the 3-year follow-up point was 24.9% in women and 24.4% in men. Of the respondents, 5.5% reported a total of 87 fractures that resulted from a fall, including 20 hip fractures, 21 wrist fractures and seven humerus fractures. Recurrent fallers were more prone to have a fall-related fracture than those who were not defined as recurrent fallers (11.9% vs. 3.4%; OR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.3-6.1). Backward logistic regression analysis identified the following predictors in the risk profile for recurrent falling: two or more previous falls, dizziness, functional limitations, weak grip strength, low body weight, fear of falling, the presence of dogs/cats in the household, a high educational level, drinking 18 or more alcoholic consumptions per week and two interaction terms (high educationx18 or more alcohol consumptions per week and two or more previous falls x fear of falling) (AUC=0.71). Discussion: At a cut-off point of 5 on the total risk score (range 0-30), the model predicted recurrent falling with a sensitivity of 59% and a specificity of 71%. At a cut-off point of 10, the sensitivity and specificity were 31% and 92%, respectively. A risk profile including nine predictors that can easily be assessed seems to be a useful tool for the identification of community-dwelling elderly with a high risk of recurrent falling. © International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation 2006

The plight of the sense-making ape

This is a selective review of the published literature on object-choice tasks, where participants use directional cues to find hidden objects. This literature comprises the efforts of researchers to make sense of the sense-making capacities of our nearest living relatives. This chapter is written to highlight some nonsensical conclusions that frequently emerge from this research. The data suggest that when apes are given approximately the same sense-making opportunities as we provide our children, then they will easily make sense of our social signals. The ubiquity of nonsensical contemporary scientific claims to the effect that humans are essentially--or inherently--more capable than other great apes in the understanding of simple directional cues is, itself, a testament to the power of preconceived ideas on human perception

Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Achieving Secondary Prevention Low-Density Lipoprotein Particle Concentration Goals Using Lipoprotein Cholesterol-Based Data

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies suggest that LDL particle concentration (LDL-P) may remain elevated at guideline recommended LDL cholesterol goals, representing a source of residual risk. We examined the following seven separate lipid parameters in achieving the LDL-P goal of <1000 nmol/L goal for very high risk secondary prevention: total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio, TC/HDL, <3; a composite of ATP-III very high risk targets, LDL-C<70 mg/dL, non-HDL-C<100 mg/dL and TG<150 mg/dL; a composite of standard secondary risk targets, LDL-C<100, non-HDL-C<130, TG<150; LDL phenotype; HDL-C ≥ 40; TG<150; and TG/HDL-C<3. METHODS: We measured ApoB, ApoAI, ultracentrifugation lipoprotein cholesterol and NMR lipoprotein particle concentration in 148 unselected primary and secondary prevention patients. RESULTS: TC/HDL-C<3 effectively discriminated subjects by LDL-P goal (F = 84.1, p<10(-6)). The ATP-III very high risk composite target (LDL-C<70, nonHDL-C<100, TG<150) was also effective (F = 42.8, p<10(-5)). However, the standard secondary prevention composite (LDL-C<100, non-HDL-C<130, TG<150) was also effective but yielded higher LDL-P than the very high risk composite (F = 42.0, p<10(-5)) with upper 95% confidence interval of LDL-P less than 1000 nmol/L. TG<150 and TG/HDL-C<3 cutpoints both significantly discriminated subjects but the LDL-P upper 95% confidence intervals fell above goal of 1000 nmol/L (F = 15.8, p = 0.0001 and F = 9.7, p = 0.002 respectively). LDL density phenotype neared significance (F = 2.85, p = 0.094) and the HDL-C cutpoint of 40 mg/dL did not discriminate (F = 0.53, p = 0.47) alone or add discriminatory power to ATP-III targets. CONCLUSIONS: A simple composite of ATP-III very high risk lipoprotein cholesterol based treatment targets or TC/HDL-C ratio <3 most effectively identified subjects meeting the secondary prevention target level of LDL-P<1000 nmol/L, providing a potential alternative to advanced lipid testing in many clinical circumstances

Exercise training as a novel primary treatment for localised prostate cancer: a multi-site randomised controlled phase II study

Alternative management strategies for localised prostate cancer are required to reduce morbidity and overtreatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility, safety and acceptability of exercise training (ET) with behavioural support as a primary therapy for low/intermediate risk localised prostate cancer. Men with low/intermediate-risk prostate cancer were randomised to 12 months of ET or usual care with physical activity advice (UCwA) in a multi-site open label RCT. Feasibility included acceptability, recruitment, retention, adherence, adverse events and disease progression. Secondary outcomes included quality of life and cardiovascular health indices. Of the 50 men randomised to ET (n=25) or UCwA (n=25), 92% (n=46) completed 12 month assessments. Three men progressed to invasive therapy (two in UCwA). In the ET group, men completed mean: 140 mins per week for 12 months (95% CI 129,152mins) (94% of target dose) at 75% Hrmax. Men in the ET group demonstrated improved body mass (mean reduction: 2.0 kg; 95% CI -2.9,-1.1), reduced systolic (mean: 13 mmHg; 95% CI 7,19) and diastolic blood pressure (mean:8 mmHg; 95% CI 5,12) and improved quality of life (EQ5D mean:13 points; 95% CI 7,18). There were no serious adverse events. ET in men with low/intermediate risk prostate cancer is feasible and acceptable with a low progression rate to radical treatment. Early signals on clinically relevant markers were found which warrant further investigation

Predicting RNA secondary structure by the comparative approach: how to select the homologous sequences

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The secondary structure of an RNA must be known before the relationship between its structure and function can be determined. One way to predict the secondary structure of an RNA is to identify covarying residues that maintain the pairings (Watson-Crick, Wobble and non-canonical pairings). This "comparative approach" consists of identifying mutations from homologous sequence alignments. The sequences must covary enough for compensatory mutations to be revealed, but comparison is difficult if they are too different. Thus the choice of homologous sequences is critical. While many possible combinations of homologous sequences may be used for prediction, only a few will give good structure predictions. This can be due to poor quality alignment in stems or to the variability of certain sequences. This problem of sequence selection is currently unsolved.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This paper describes an algorithm, <it>SSCA</it>, which measures the suitability of sequences for the comparative approach. It is based on evolutionary models with structure constraints, particularly those on sequence variations and stem alignment. We propose three models, based on different constraints on sequence alignments. We show the results of the <it>SSCA </it>algorithm for predicting the secondary structure of several RNAs. <it>SSCA </it>enabled us to choose sets of homologous sequences that gave better predictions than arbitrarily chosen sets of homologous sequences.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>SSCA </it>is an algorithm for selecting combinations of RNA homologous sequences suitable for secondary structure predictions with the comparative approach.</p

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Debate and Commentary-Will Early Infection Compromise Treatment-as-Prevention Strategies?

Universal HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy for infected individuals has been proposed as a way of reducing the transmission of HIV and thereby bringing the HIV epidemic under control. It is unclear whether transmission during early HIV infection—before individuals are likely to have been diagnosed with HIV and started on antiretroviral therapy—will compromise the effectiveness of treatment as prevention. This article presents two opposing viewpoints by Powers, Miller, and Cohen, and Williams and Dye, followed by a commentary by Fraser

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT