Evolutionary-based prediction interval estimation by blending solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological weather types

Recent research has shown that the integration or blending of different forecasting models is able to improve the predictions of solar radiation. However, most works perform model blending to improve point forecasts, but the integration of forecasting models to improve probabilistic forecasting has not received much attention. In this work the estimation of prediction intervals for the integration of four Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) forecasting models (Smart Persistence, WRF-solar, CIADcast, and Satellite) is addressed. Several short-term forecasting horizons, up to one hour ahead, have been analyzed. Within this context, one of the aims of the article is to study whether knowledge about the synoptic weather conditions, which are related to the stability of weather, might help to reduce the uncertainty represented by prediction intervals. In order to deal with this issue, information about which weather type is present at the time of prediction, has been used by the blending model. Four weather types have been considered. A multi-objective variant of the Lower Upper Bound Estimation approach has been used in this work for prediction interval estimation and compared with two baseline methods: Quantile Regression (QR) and Gradient Boosting (GBR). An exhaustive experimental validation has been carried out, using data registered at Seville in the Southern Iberian Peninsula. Results show that, in general, using weather type information reduces uncertainty of prediction intervals, according to all performance metrics used. More specifically, and with respect to one of the metrics (the ratio between interval coverage and width), for high-coverage (0.90, 0.95) prediction intervals, using weather type enhances the ratio of the multi-objective approach by 2%¿. Also, comparing the multi-objective approach versus the two baselines for high-coverage intervals, the improvement is 11%¿% over QR and 10%¿% over GBR. Improvements for low-coverage intervals (0.85) are smaller.The authors are supported by projects funded by Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Spain (PID2019-107455RB-C21 and PID2019-107455RB-C22/AEI/10.13039/501100011033). Also supported by Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project ENE2014-56126-C2-1-R and ENE2014-56126-C2-2-R (http://prosol.uc3m.es). The University of Jaén team is also supported by FEDER, Spain funds and by the Junta de Andalucía, Spain (Research group TEP-220

High- and Low-Mass Star Forming Regions from Hierarchical Gravitational Fragmentation. High local Star Formation Rates with Low Global Efficiencies

We investigate the properties of "star forming regions" in a previously published numerical simulation of molecular cloud formation out of compressive motions in the warm neutral atomic interstellar medium, neglecting magnetic fields and stellar feedback. In this simulation, the velocity dispersions at all scales are caused primarily by infall motions rather than by random turbulence. We study the properties (density, total gas+stars mass, stellar mass, velocity dispersion, and star formation rate) of the cloud hosting the first local, isolated "star formation" event in the simulation and compare them with those of the cloud formed by a later central, global collapse event. We suggest that the small-scale, isolated collapse may be representative of low- to intermediate-mass star-forming regions, while the large-scale, massive one may be representative of massive star forming regions. We also find that the statistical distributions of physical properties of the dense cores in the region of massive collapse compare very well with those from a recent survey of the massive star forming region in the Cygnus X molecular cloud. The star formation efficiency per free-fall time (SFE_ff) of the high-mass SF clump is low, ~0.04. This occurs because the clump is accreting mass at a high rate, not because its specific SFR (SSFR) is low. This implies that a low value of the SFE_ff does not necessarily imply a low SSFR, but may rather indicate a large gas accretion rate. We suggest that a globally low SSFR at the GMC level can be attained even if local star forming sites have much larger values of the SSFR if star formation is a spatially intermittent process, so that most of the mass in a GMC is not participating of the SF process at any given time.Comment: Accepted by ApJ. Revised version, according to exchanges with referee. Original results unchanged. Extensive new discussion on the low global efficiency vs. high local efficiency of star formation. Abstract abridge

Diagnostic delay of associated interstitial lung disease increases mortality in rheumatoid arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a systemic autoimmune disease whose main extra-articular organ affected is the lung, sometimes in the form of diffuse interstitial lung disease (ILD) and conditions the prognosis. A multicenter, observational, descriptive and cross-sectional study of consecutive patients diagnosed with RA-ILD. Demographic, analytical, respiratory functional and evolution characteristics were analyzed to evaluate the predictors of progression and mortality. 106 patients were included. The multivariate analysis showed that the diagnostic delay was an independent predictor of mortality (HR 1.11, CI 1.01-1.23, p = 0.035). Also, age (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.09-1.62, p = 0.0045), DLCO (%) (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.73-0.98, p = 0.0246), and final SatO2 (%) in the 6MWT (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.39-0.99, p = 0.0465) were independent predictor variables of mortality, as well as GAP index (HR 4.65, 95% CI 1.59-13.54, p = 0.0051) and CPI index (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.03-1.22, p = 0.0092). The withdrawal of MTX or LFN after ILD diagnosis was associated with disease progression in the COX analysis (HR 2.18, 95% CI 1.14-4.18, p = 0.019). This is the first study that highlights the diagnostic delay in RA-ILD is associated with an increased mortality just like happens in IPF

The Nature of the Velocity Field in Molecular Clouds. I. The Non-Magnetic Case

We present three numerical simulations of randomly driven, isothermal, non-magnetic, self-gravitating turbulence with different rms Mach numbers Ms and physical sizes L, but approximately the same value of the virial parameter, alpha approx 1.2. We obtain the following results: a) We test the hypothesis that the collapsing centers originate from locally Jeans-unstable ("super-Jeans"), subsonic fragments; we find no such structures. b) We find that the fraction of small-scale super-Jeans structures is larger in the presence of self-gravity. c) The velocity divergence of subregions of the simulations exhibits a negative correlation with their mean density. d) The density probability density function (PDF) deviates from a lognormal in the presence of self-gravity. e) Turbulence alone in the large-scale simulation does not produce regions with the same size and mean density as those of the small-scale simulation. Items (b)-(e) suggest that self-gravity is not only involved in causing the collapse of Jeans-unstable density fluctuations produced by the turbulence, but also in their {it formation}. We also measure the star formation rate per free-fall time, as a function of Ms for the three runs, and compare with the predictions of recent semi-analytical models. We find marginal agreement to within the uncertainties of the measurements. However, the hypotheses of those models neglect the net negative divergence of dense regions we find in our simulations. We conclude that a) part of the observed velocity dispersion in clumps must arise from clump-scale inwards motions, and b) analytical models of clump and star formation need to take into account this dynamical connection with the external flow and the fact that, in the presence of self-gravity, the density PDF may deviate from a lognormal.Comment: 10 pages. Accepted by MNRAS. Replacement matches accepted version. Six new figure panels, extended discussion, conclusions unchanged. Abstract abridge

Reseñas de libros

[EN] García Bueno, Antonio. Dibujando la Alhambra y su Entorno (por Antonio J. Gómez-Blanco Pontes) pp. 4.-- Pozo, José M.; García-Diego, Hector y García, Izaskun ( por Carlos Montes Serrano) pp. 5.-- Laura Carlevaris, Mónica Filippa (coordinadoras)(por Antonio Álvaro Tordesillas) pp. 5 y 6.-- Esteve Secall, Carlos E. La ciencia gnomónica en la España del siglo de Oro (por Joaquín Casado de Amezúa Vázquez ) pp. 6 y 7.-- Franco Taboada, José Antonio. Geometría descriptiva para la representación arquitectónica (por Lluís Villanueva Bartrina) pp. 7 y 8.--Raposo Grau, Javier Fco; Butragueño Díaz-Guerra y Paredes Maldonado, Miguel. La ciudad como espacio de relaciones dinámicas (por Margarita de Luxán García de Diego) pp. 8 y 9.-- Castellanos Gómez, Raúl. Plan Poché (por Daniel García-Escudero) pp. 9 y 10.-- Gutiérrez Mozo, María Alia; Castilla Pascual, Francisco Javier y Real Tomás, María del Carmen. 70 años de arquitectura en Albacete: 1936-2006 ( por Javier Poyatos Sebastián) pp. 10 y 11.-- García Sánchez, María Teresa. De la ciudad en vibración al ser resonante: una investigación a propósito de los conciertos de campanas de Llorenç Barber ( por Fernando Ochoa Gómez) pp. 11.-- Pernas Alonso, Inés. Escaleras de piedra en los conjuntos monásticos de la provincia de Ourense entre los siglos xVI y xVIII. Análisis gráfico (por José Antonio Franco Taboada) pp. 12 y 13.-- Rodríguez Moreno, Dª Concepción. El palacio de Pedro I en los Reales Alcázares de Sevilla: estudio y análisis (por Joaquín Casado de Amezúa) pp. 13 y 14.—Jeremías, Pablo y Gutierrez, Juan. Tiempo de arquitectura ( por Carlos L. Marcos) pp. 14 y 15.-- Domingo Gresa, Jorge. El dibujo de arquitectura en la formación de la ciudad de Alicante: Fondo Documental del Archivo Municipal (1691-1860)(por Gaspar Jaén i Urbàn)pp.15.-- García-Solera, Javier. Dibujos y palabras en la habitación tranquila (por Gaspar Jaen) pp. 16 y 17.—Anne Griswold Tyng (1920-2011)( por Noelia Galván Desvaux)pp. 18 y 19 .-- Oscar Niemeyer Un adiós al último maestro del siglo XX(por Noelia Galván Desvaux)pp. 20 y 21Gómez-Blanco Pontes, AJ.; Montes Serrano, C.; Tordesillas, AÁ.; Casado De Amezúa Vázquez, J.; Villanueva Bartrina, L.; De Luxán García De Diego, M.; García-Escudero, D.... (2013). Reseñas de libros. EGA. Revista de Expresión Gráfica Arquitectónica. 18(21):4-21. https://doi.org/10.4995/ega.2013.1708SWORD421182

Nutrición en Salud Pública

La salud pública es uno de los esfuerzos colectivos organizados de la sociedad para prevenir la muerte prematura, la enfermedad, las lesiones y la discapacidad, y para promover la salud de las poblaciones. La Nutrición es la ciencia que estudia el conjunto de procesos por los cuales un organismo utiliza la energía de los alimentos para mantenerse y crecer; o, expresado de forma más operativa, la ciencia que estudia los alimentos, nutrientes y otras sustancias relacionadas, su interacción y balance en relación con la salud y la enfermedad y los procesos por los cuales el organismo ingiere, digiere, absorbe, transporta, utiliza y extrae las sustancias alimenticias. A partir de estas definiciones, podemos conceptualizar la nutrición en salud pública o la salud pública nutricional (public health nutrition) como la ciencia que estudia la relación entre dieta y salud a nivel poblacional y el desarrollo de intervenciones nutricionales a nivel comunitario con el objeto de mejorar el estado de salud de las poblaciones

Effect of remote ischaemic conditioning on clinical outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction (CONDI-2/ERIC-PPCI): a single-blind randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Remote ischaemic conditioning with transient ischaemia and reperfusion applied to the arm has been shown to reduce myocardial infarct size in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). We investigated whether remote ischaemic conditioning could reduce the incidence of cardiac death and hospitalisation for heart failure at 12 months. METHODS: We did an international investigator-initiated, prospective, single-blind, randomised controlled trial (CONDI-2/ERIC-PPCI) at 33 centres across the UK, Denmark, Spain, and Serbia. Patients (age >18 years) with suspected STEMI and who were eligible for PPCI were randomly allocated (1:1, stratified by centre with a permuted block method) to receive standard treatment (including a sham simulated remote ischaemic conditioning intervention at UK sites only) or remote ischaemic conditioning treatment (intermittent ischaemia and reperfusion applied to the arm through four cycles of 5-min inflation and 5-min deflation of an automated cuff device) before PPCI. Investigators responsible for data collection and outcome assessment were masked to treatment allocation. The primary combined endpoint was cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure at 12 months in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02342522) and is completed. FINDINGS: Between Nov 6, 2013, and March 31, 2018, 5401 patients were randomly allocated to either the control group (n=2701) or the remote ischaemic conditioning group (n=2700). After exclusion of patients upon hospital arrival or loss to follow-up, 2569 patients in the control group and 2546 in the intervention group were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. At 12 months post-PPCI, the Kaplan-Meier-estimated frequencies of cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure (the primary endpoint) were 220 (8·6%) patients in the control group and 239 (9·4%) in the remote ischaemic conditioning group (hazard ratio 1·10 [95% CI 0·91-1·32], p=0·32 for intervention versus control). No important unexpected adverse events or side effects of remote ischaemic conditioning were observed. INTERPRETATION: Remote ischaemic conditioning does not improve clinical outcomes (cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure) at 12 months in patients with STEMI undergoing PPCI. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, University College London Hospitals/University College London Biomedical Research Centre, Danish Innovation Foundation, Novo Nordisk Foundation, TrygFonden

Redox Flow Batteries: From Vanadium to Earth abundant organic molecules (Quinones)

[eng] Along this Thesis dissertation book, which is focused on the topic of Redox Flow Batteries, many efforts have been done in order to improve different aspects of the all-Vanadium Redox Flow batteries (VRFBs) technology, as monitoring each battery compartment, increasing operational temperature range, enhancing negative electrode to reduce side reactions and charge transfer towards V3+/V2+ redox reaction and also modifying positive electrode to obtain a faster VO2 /VO redox reaction. Vanadium technology was chosen over all redox flow technologies due to its mature development reaching the barrier to commercial breakthrough. The main targeted aspects about VRFBs have been: • Reference electrode implementation into a single cell device (battery) to study separately anolyte and catholyte in real working conditions. This set- up allows following the contribution of each one of the electrodes separately, and consequently knowing the limiting factor in the battery, in order to improve them. • Electrolyte modifications with catalytic quantities of an additive allowing a larger vanadium ion concentration being able to be solved into the electrolyte, as well as increase the operational temperature window. These improvements are done in order to increase the energy density of the system, and also allow the battery to work in a wider temperature range to adapt this system to broader climate areas without temperature control. • Electrodes enhancement: Initially, we will focus our attention into electrode modifications to enhance their electrochemical properties. Firstly, increasing functional groups on the electrode’s surface, which make them more electroactive towards vanadium redox reactions. Secondly, different catalysts are deposited to obtain faster vanadium redox reactions on a carbon-based structure (as graphite felt or carbon felt). o Anode, main lacks are large ohmic overpotential due to competing side reaction. - It has been done an exhaust study of different structures of the same material, as it is nanoparticles (NPs), single- nanorods (SNRs) and multi-nanorods assembly (MNRs). - Graphite and/or carbon felt enhancement using the synthesis of different catalyst (TiO2, TiO2:H, TiO2:iN, O and N groups) which help not only to make the negative redox reaction (V3+/V2+) faster and reduce the voltage drop, but also avoid side reactions (gas evolution) as can be hydrogen evolution reaction (HER). All of these help to elevate the reachable energy and power densities of the battery. o Cathode, which lacks of a fast kinetics. - Deposition of a catalyst over graphite felt, as it is ceria (CeO2), to aid the positive redox reaction (VO2 /VO ) making it faster, as well as improve the efficiencies and accessible capacity of the battery. Despite the fact that the systems described previously were already proposed several decades ago, they are still the subject of current research. These systems show several inconvenient related to the vanadium abundance, the cost of it, as well as the geopolitical impact caused by its mining. As a consequence, the implementation of organic redox active species is a first step in order to avoid these disadvantages. Organic molecules are abundant, tunable by synthetic pathways and an improved kinetic with the possibility of having two-electron transfer process (as happens to quinones)1,2. Such a battery has the potential to meet the demanding cost, durability, eco-friendliness, and sustainability requirements for grid-scale electrical energy storage. Furthermore, this system has been studied targeting on a Quinone-based redox flow battery. After the selection of the catholyte (benzoquinone-based molecules as p-benzoquinone, o-benzoquinone and disodium 4,5-dihydroxy-1,3- benzenedisulfonate) and anolyte (Anthraquinone-2,7-disulfonic acid disodium salt) in a methanosulfonic acid solvent, the next step has been improving the electrode technology on both single cell compartments to promote positive and negative redox reactions. In order to do that surface modification has been done, by means of nitrogen and oxygen functionalization using different methods. Finally, it has been commented the present of all-Vanadium and Aqueous Organic Redox Flow Batteries, as well as some future perspective of both technologies.[spa] A lo largo de esta tesis doctoral, centrada en el tema de baterías de flujo, se ha puesto mucho empeño en la mejora y desarrollo de diferentes aspectos de la tecnología referente a baterías de flujo de vanadio (VRFBs). En este aspecto, se ha realizado el seguimiento de cada compartimento de la batería por separado durante el ciclado de la batería, el aumento del rango de temperatura de trabajo de la batería, la mejora del electrodo negativo mediante la inhibición de reacciones parasitas y reducción de los valores de transferencia de carga para la reacción redox relativa a V3+/V2+, al igual que la modificación del electrodo positivo para obtener un aumento de la velocidad de reacción del par redox VO2+/VO2+. Se eligió la tecnología referente a vanadio respecto a otras tecnologías de baterías de flujo como consecuencia de su madurez en cuanto a desarrollo, rozando la barrera de la expansión comercial a gran escala. Los principales aspectos tratados sobre las baterías de flujo de vanadio han sido: • Implementación de un electrodo de referencia no-comercial dentro de una batería con el objetivo de estudiar por separado el anolito y el catolito a lo largo del ciclado de la batería. Esta configuración permite seguir la contribución de cada uno de los electrodos a la reacción por separado, y en consecuencia saber cuál es el factor limitante dentro de la batería con el objetivo de mejorarlo. • Mejoras del electrolito mediante aditivos en cantidades catalíticas con el objetivo de permitir una mayor cantidad de iones vanadio capaz de ser disueltos y también aumentar el rango de temperatura donde la batería es capaz de trabajar. Estas mejoras se han realizado para aumentar la densidad de energía del sistema, y también ampliar la temperatura operacional de la batería con el fin de poder trabajar en un mayor número de zonas climáticas. • Mejoras de electrodo: Inicialmente la atención se centra en la modificación de electrodos para mejorar sus propiedades electroquímicas. Primero aumentando el número de grupos funcionales en la superficie del electrodo, lo que los hace estos electrodos más electro activos hacia las reacciones redox de vanadio. Seguidamente también se realiza el depósito de diferentes catalizadores para obtener reacciones redox de vanadio más rápidas sobre un substrato carbonoso, como pueden ser los fieltros de carbono o grafito. o Ánodo, cuya principal deficiencia es el elevado sobrepotencial óhmico como consecuencia de las reacciones parásitas. - Se ha realizado el estudio de diferentes estructuras del mismo material, como es el óxido de titanio en su fase rutilo, como nanopartículas (NPs), nanorods simples (SNRs) y ensamblaje de nanorods multiples (MNRs). - Mejora de sustratos de fieltro de grafito y de carbono mediante diferentes catalizadores (TiO2, TiO2:H, TiO2:N), además de mediante grupos funcionales (grupos O y N), lo cuales no solo facilitan la mejora de la reacción redox V3+/V2+ aumentando la velocidad de dicha reacción y reduce la caída de voltaje de la batería, sino que es capaz de inhibir las reacciones parásitas de evolución de gases, como puede ser la reacción de evolución de hidrógeno (HER). Todo esto ayuda a aumentar la densidad de energía y la densidad de potencia de la batería. o Cátodo, cuya principal deficiencia es la baja velocidad de reacción comparativamente con la reacción negativa. - Depósito de un catalizador, como es la Ceria (CeO2), sobre un fieltro de grafito, con el objetivo de mejorar la reacción redox positiva VO2+/VO2+ haciéndola más rápida, además de mejorar las eficiencias de la batería y la capacidad que esta puede alcanzar. A pesar que los sistemas de baterías de flujo de vanadio descritos han sido estudiados desde hace varias décadas, son aún objeto de estudio actual. Sin embargo, estos sistemas muestras diversos inconvenientes relacionados con la abundancia de vanadio, su elevado coste, además del impacto geopolítico causado por su extracción. Como consecuencia de estos hechos, la implementación de baterías de flujo con especies orgánicas como pares redox activos es un primer paso con el objetivo de evitar las desventajas de las baterías de flujo previamente descritas. Al contrario que el vanadio, las moléculas orgánicas son abundantes, pueden ser modificadas mediante diferentes caminos de síntesis y poseen una cinética mejorada que además incluye una transferencia de dos electrones en el proceso, como se produce en las quinonas, mientras que en las baterías de flujo de vanadio solo se da la transferencia de un único electrón. Dichas baterías orgánicas tienen el potencial de satisfacer las demandas de coste, durabilidad, medioambientalmente respetuoso, y requerimientos de sostenibilidad para el almacenamiento energético dentro de la red eléctrica. Más allá, este sistema se ha estudiado centrándose en moléculas como base quinona en las baterías de flujo, seleccionando como catolito moléculas con base benzoquinona (p-benzoquinone, o-benzoquinone y 4,5-dihidroxi-1,3- benzenedisulfonato) y la sal disódica del ácido antraquinone-2,7-disulfónico como anolito. Ambos materiales activos se han disuelto en una solución con el ácido metanosulfónico como disolvente que ayuda a mejorar las eficiencias y capacidad alcanzable por la batería, además de su estabilidad a lo largo de los ciclos. Paralelamente, con el objetivo de mejorar las reacciones de las moléculas orgánicas previamente mencionadas, diferentes modificaciones en la superficie de electrodos de fieltro de carbono se han realizado, como puede ser la funcionalización mediante grupos nitrógeno y/o oxígeno mediante varios métodos. Finalmente, una breve perspectiva de futuro de las tecnologías estudiadas, como son las baterías de flujo de vanadio y las nuevas baterías de flujo con compuestos orgánicos activos, para ello se ha tenido en cuenta el citado trabajo de tesis como además los datos presentes en la literatura al respecto de estos temas

Using a Multi-view Convolutional Neural Network to monitor solar irradiance

In the last years, there is an increasing interest for enhanced method for assessing and monitoring the level of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in photovoltaic (PV) systems, fostered by the massive deployment of this energy. Thermopile or photodiode pyranometers provide point measurements, which may not be adequate in cases when areal information is important (as for PV network or large PV plants monitoring). The use of All Sky Imagers paired convolutional neural networks, a powerful technique for estimation, has been proposed as a plausible alternative. In this work, a convolutional neural network architecture is presented to estimate solar irradiance from sets of ground-level Total Sky Images. This neural network is capable of combining images from three cameras. Results show that this approach is more accurate than using only images from a single camera. It has also been shown to improve the performance of two other approaches: a cloud fraction model and a feature extraction model.Sin financiación5.606 JCR (2020) Q1, 31/139 Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence0.713 SJR (2020) Q1, 114/1465 SoftwareNo data IDR 2019UE